Awesome SYSTEM (70%) that u can backtest for yourself................

[moondawg]

OK guys, I'm gonna throw this SYSTEM I've developed out there. U can backtest yourself and see the results it hits at 70%. So far this season, it's 154-59. Now before u go all crazy and say there's no way, just hold on a second and listen to my theory.

For the longest time, every time I saw a spread at 6, 6.5 or even 7, I'd say to myself...."All they gotta do is win by a TD." wELL, i KEPT GETTING BURNED. So.....before this season, I looked at last year's NCAAF lines and here's what I came up with. For @ 5 years, I've religiously tracked on paper all line movements on all sports. Well, in NCAAF here's the deal. The easiest way to do this is simply list the pointspread and the side to take.

NOTE: All lines are as of 10:30 am EST on Saturday and 5 pm EST on weekday games.
NOTE: System only applies to games involving BCS conference teams and/or in the top 25. Plus, it could only involve 1 such team (ex. Ark. St. +33 v. Auburn a cople weeks ago).

1.5, 2, 2.5, 3..............DOG
3.5...........................FAV
6, 6.5, 7....................DOG
7.5...........................FAV
9, 9.5.......................DOG
11, 11.5....................FAV
13, 13.5, 14..............DOG
14.5, 15, 15.5...........FAV
19, 19.5, 20, 20.5, 21...DOG
26,26.5,27,27.5,28......DOG
28.5,29,29.5,30.........FAV
33,33.5,34,34.5,35....DOG
35.5,36,37...............FAV

I hope u guys can see the pattern here. Go back and look for yourself. Now, I know some books have different lines. I use OMNISportsbook. But, for the most part, books' lines are usually only a half-point off from each other. Now, it does no good for u to look at donbest and see the closing lines cuz, it's not by the closing. See the above note. But u can take some of the big games the last few weeks and see the pattern quite easily.

Rutgers +6.5 v. Louisville
WVU -11 last night v. Pitt
SC +13.5 v. FL
ND -11.5 v. AF
AZ +13.5 v. Cal
OSU -7.5 v. IO early this season

............I could go on and on.

It's obvious what the pattern is. The "TD" marks minus, take the dog....plus, take the fav.........plus throw in the FG/ FG + TD at 3 and 10-pt marks. Vegas is saying, "Hey, Louisville only has to win by a TD." Jo Schmo Public says, "Yeah, they've only gotta win by a TD."........and the rest is Rutgers history.
And the cool thing is, this is not just on the biggest games every weekend....last couple weeks.....Ball St. +34 v. Mich, Ark St. +33 v. Auburn..........just to name a couple.

Anyway, just wanted to throw this out there. Or not just throw it out there. It's made me a heckuvalotta money this year. There is a pattern for totals as well, but the win % is much lower....56%.... and it's based, as well, on the TD mark pointspreads.

I'll be posting these plays tommorrow morning @ 10:30 EST. Last night, I posted WVU -11 and the over.

Anyway, I'd love to hear thoughts. I know I can't be the only person on thei Earth that has noticed this pattern.

:cheers: :cheers: :cheers: :cheers: :cheers: :cheers: :cheers:

 

[smo1a]

no time to track, but interesting nonetheless.

 

[moondawg]

Smo, I gotta say, it's pretty freakin incredible. It makes pickin winners easy.

 

[albyman32]

This is interesting. Do you have winning %age's for certain numbers. Seems like the system would be more accurate and hit a higher %age at lower numbers that hover around 3 or 7 as opposed to numbers in the 20+ range. Is this true?

 

[moondawg]

Alby, no I don't. The only thing I do know is that the 9 and 11-pt areas are a little lower % than everything else.

I only know that as a whole, it's hit right at 65%-70% on spreads and 55% on totals.

And I also know the 6, 6.5 7 pt dogs are right at 80%. It's amazing. I know and somewhat unbelievable, but u can actually backtest it yourself. Like I said earlier, some books are usually a half-pt difference, but u can still easily see the pattern even if u're using a different book.

 

[USCTrojans]

Very interesting...

So is that mean, we will have to take Central Michigan -4 and KENT -11.5 for tonight?

 

[Troutman]

So what happens when lines are released days before sat and they change throughout the week, really if it was that simple wouldnt we all be rich, so you think this may even out throughout the year, has it hit 70% throughout the past 5 years. It is also good in the NFL.
Very Interesting.....Worth looking into

 

[smo1a]

Trout, I think he is saying that it applies to final lines, or at least Sat at 10:30 am est.

My other question Moondog, do you disregard lines that don't fall with a spread listed in the system? IE, does it apply to a 4 or 4.5 point spread??

Also, do you ignore a MAC game with both being a non BCS conf and not top 25?

 

[moondawg]

Trojans, read this carefully.
...............NOTE: All lines are as of 10:30 am EST on Saturday and 5 pm EST on weekday games.
NOTE: System only applies to games involving BCS conference teams and/or in the top 25. Plus, it could only involve 1 such team (ex. Ark. St. +33 v. Auburn a cople weeks ago)..................

In o/ words, both games tonight involve no BCS conf teams or top 25 teams. Also, the 4-pt spread has no action. Look at those spread marks again really carefully!!!!!!!!!!!
..............................................................................................

Trout, yeah, my lines for OMNI also come out early in the week. I pay absolutely no attention to what the lines do during the week until Friday. And then, it's only to get a feel for what may be on tap for Saturday. The plays don't become plays until 10:30 EST on Saturday or 5 pm EST on weekdays.
Look back at that 1st post again...........and yeah, we could be all rich.

Yes, it's been bet 65-70% last 5 years since I've tracked it. Yes, it does work in NFL, but the spread marks are a little different.

 

[RambleOn]

Moondawg - on Saturday, are you going to post the plays?

 

[moondawg]

Smo, look at my post right above yours.

Ramble, yes...............and who's rack-a-lamb is that????

 

[RambleOn]

My girlfriend's. Shhhhh.

 

[E.T.G.]

My girlfriend's. Shhhhh.

Sharing is Caring big guy! :smiley_acbe:

 

[TroyStacks]

you only have 200 games this year? i counted 30 alone for this week

 

[M.R. Goode]

Moondog, I have a program that can back test this kind of stuff quickly and It comes up with different numbers. For example, using closing line which is all is can test, the 6, 6'. and 7 pt dogs from start of 2002 season to now for the 6 BCS conf's record is 85-93 ATS. Maybe I'm not doing something right. I would love to find a system that works this well this easy. I have one for pro ball but only 2-3 picks a week.

But be carefull with systems like this because they turn around remember how good MNF HD use to be, until everyone started betting them.

Look forward to see what you come up with this week. BOL!

 

[moondawg]

Mr. Goode, 1st off, that's a pretty cool system u got there.
2nd, all I can say is it does make a huge difference on the closing lines vs. where they are on Sat mornings.

For, instance, a couple weeks ago, I did this just out of curiosity. On the closing lines, the system record was 10-12. On the Sat morning lines, it was 14-6. Some plays "changed" sides by the time the line closed and some became "no-plays." Also, some weren't plays on Sat morn, then became plays by closing time. I only did this once, so I really don't know if it's followed the same kinda pattern on other days.

 

[vanzack]

Moondog, I have a program that can back test this kind of stuff quickly and It comes up with different numbers. For example, using closing line which is all is can test, the 6, 6'. and 7 pt dogs from start of 2002 season to now for the 6 BCS conf's record is 85-93 ATS. Maybe I'm not doing something right. I would love to find a system that works this well this easy. I have one for pro ball but only 2-3 picks a week.

But be carefull with systems like this because they turn around remember how good MNF HD use to be, until everyone started betting them.

Look forward to see what you come up with this week. BOL!

Thank you.

Im not trying to be a dick here but I get nervous when the poster of a system (that seems extremely random and a lot like the "-215 rule") says vague things like it hits "65-70%".

I dont buy it.

I would like to hear more facts and less speculation.

Like I said - Im not calling you out or saying it is wrong - just asking you to document such claims.

:shake:

 

[Troutman]

Mr goode what your system? Do you post your plays?

Moondawg, what is so special about 10:30 am on Sat morning, is this the special time of the system, really man, how valid is that.

 

[Troutman]

The SYSTEM usually spits out plays in every sport on weekdays. Honestly, I only play football on weekends until football ends. But on weekdays, for now, I'll be posting plays on every sport. For now, I'll pretty much be posting the plays on weekdays in the NBA Forum and in the NCAAF Forum on Saturday. On Sunday, I won't be posting at all. I just play personal plays on NFL, cuz the SYSTEM just doesn't work for NFL.

I thought you said it works in the nfl.

 

[moondawg]

Here were last week's plays......................................

ASU +1.5.....W
UCLA +2......W
USC -7.5.....W
MIAMI +3....W
PURDUE +3..W
PSU -36......W
INDY +19.....L
BC -30........L
UNC +13.5...W
AUB -11.5...L
STAN +19....W
S CAR +13...W
ND -11........W
AZ +13.5.....W
SJSU +13.5..W
TX TECH +9..L
RUTG +6.5...W
COLO -7.5....W

......................14-4!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!...78%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!........................

Remember, the 2 keys......10:30 am EST on Saturdays and 5 pm EST on weekday games................

 

[moondawg]

Yes, Trout, you are correct, I did say that. The spread marks are a little different and I guess I just wanted to totally stay away from NFL cuz it's different from NCAAF. I guess there's an apology owed for that. I wasn't trying to mislead anyone.....just wanting to steer clear of NFL for right now....atleast maybe until next week when I've got alotta time to kill.

 

[Troutman]

I see your system worked well last week,
BUT WHAT IS SO MAGIC ABOUT 10:30 WHY DID YOU PICK THIS TIME?

Did the universe align for the perfect "betting" storm.

 

[moondawg]

So there's last week. Here's the previous week. I hope this can atleast lay some factual stuff on here so some of u guys can see some validity on this.

Sat, Nov. 4.............
BALL ST. +34..........W
N'WEST +20.5.........W
PURDUE +3.............W
SFL.......................W
IOWA ST +2...........L
MD +19.5...............W
NAVY -11..............W
UGA -7.5...............L
MISS ST +14..........W
TX A&M +3............W
UNC +26...............W
USC -28.5.............W
S CAR +3..............L
UVA +13.5............L
COLO -3.5............L
BYU -15...............W
MIZZOU +6...........L
WISCY -7.5...........W
MIAMI +3..............L
ASU +2.5..............L
ARK ST +33...........W
LOUISVILLE +1.5....W
GT -3.5...............W

................15-8..........65%!!!!!!!!!!!!.....................................

I could keep going, but this should atleast be enough to validate some of this.

 

[Troutman]

I understand the outcomes, but why 1030 thats what I am asking, where did this come from?

Thanks
Are those all of the qualifying games for top 25 and bcs teams.?

 

[Seabass]

Honestly, and I'm not looking to shit on you...please don't take this personally...

But what this system shows is that you could go 65% for a year one year by having your dog piss on the morning lines and only take the teams that don't get soaked...

FWIW, though, I believe that in Access and Excel, you could actualy train your computer to get those lines automatically at 10:30AM and have it tell you exactly what the picks are and track them. Someone smarter could probably even have it bet them for you. If you really think this system is worth its salt, I'd track it like that...

 

[moondawg]

Yeah, I guess so Trout. I honestly have no clue as to why. Ya see. I've always kept track of line moves and when they've moved. I just finally figured out, it if I had a "cut-off" time of @ 10:30 am.

It actually happened by accident a few years ago. I marched on the drumline at S Carolina (Yes, I experienced 2001 on the field numerous times. It never got old, but it'd be nice if it evr translated to big home wins) and taught high school drumlines to earn some money while I was there. Well, on SC away, they only took part of the band. On Saturdays when I wasn't traveling w/ the band, I'd got w/ the HS drumline I was teaching to their weekend contests. Well, we always had a morning rehearsal from @ 9:30 to @ 10:30 am then packed to travel to the contest site. Well, at 10:30, I'd call and make my plays. Those were the last lines lines I got....@ 10:30 am EST. That's when I just started looking at the line placements at that time.

Here's just a hunch. I just think maybe the sharps for the most part have their plays in by Sat morning. By then, Vegas has the lines set where they can sucker the public. I mean think about it. As I said in an earlier post, "Hey, Louisville only has to beat WVU by a TD........OR............MD beat Miami by a FG...OR Oregon is getting more than a TD. This is easy money."

Corso's kinda crazy, but........."not so fast my friends"

 

[moondawg]

Bass, it does sound crazy, I know. Just look at my above post in the last paragraph. Why else would all of these specific spread marks be so significant????????

Trout, hope the above post answers. It was kinda by accident. Yes, any game involving atleast 1 BCS conference or top 25 team.

Fellas, all I know is this thing is making me a ton of money and I just didn't wanna jinx it. That's the only reason I waited til now to post this thing.

 

[vanzack]

Alright - I have to take myself out of any future dealings with moondawg because it is painfully obvious he is Panther95 from covers.

The way he capitalizes SYSTEM and the way he writes, also the exact same system for baseball (remember the -215 rule?) and also Omnisportsbook.

Im not going to get in to a war with you here pal. I will just ignore but buyer beware.

 

[vanzack]

Troutman - Go over to covers and research Panther95.

Moondawg = Panther95.

you will spin your wheels in to oblivion with this guy and his SYSTEMS. Just trying to save you some time here.

 

[3xChamps]

moon, very interesting ty:cheers:

 

[smo1a]

Alright - I have to take myself out of any future dealings with moondawg because it is painfully obvious he is Panther95 from covers.

The way he capitalizes SYSTEM and the way he writes, also the exact same system for baseball (remember the -215 rule?) and also Omnisportsbook.

Im not going to get in to a war with you here pal. I will just ignore but buyer beware.

Please no Covers bullshit. Let him state his case and if anyone is interested, great. If not, trust your own instincts and do your own thing. Nothing in life is guaranteed and that goes for systems. For all we know, the shit may be hitting 65% for the year, but could hit at 25% this week. Pissing matches don't seem to work over here and that is why I have not posted on Covers since joining this forum.

Between this thread and G-Mans on the tOSU/MICH game, it's starting to feel like the BS that goes on at the other sites.

I never rant or bad mouth a fellow poster, but I don't want to see this great forum start turning out like the others. Please understand I say this with great respect for you vanzack :shake:

 

[vanzack]

Please no Covers bullshit. Let him state his case and if anyone is interested, great. If not, trust your own instincts and do your own thing. Nothing in life is guaranteed and that goes for systems. For all we know, the shit may be hitting 65% for the year, but could hit at 25% this week. Pissing matches don't seem to work over here and that is why I have not posted on Covers since joining this forum.

Between this thread and G-Mans on the tOSU/MICH game, it's starting to feel like the BS that goes on at the other sites.

I never rant or bad mouth a fellow poster, but I don't want to see this great forum start turning out like the others. Please understand I say this with great respect for you vanzack :shake:

Simply why I stated that I will not post further comment and will ignore, but know that you are spinning the wheels of irrationality when you try to talk systems with this guy.

That is the last you will hear me say about that.

:shake:

 

[abcs]

Vanzack how much do you believe in systems when cappin a game

 

[moondawg]

I'll be honest w/ u guys. Yes, VAN I am Panther95. I know you're a smart guy and didn't figure it'd take u long to figure it out. That's exactly why I kept my same style as far as how I write my posts. Honestly, I got caught up in all the bull over there and let my childish side come out. Yes, that affected things I did, plays I posted, # of plays, etc. It was crazy. I had never even seen any site that was a chatroom for bettors. I honestly didn'y know anything like that existed and I flat out got caught up in all the crap. I spent so much time responding to posts, I lost track of line movements, which also hurt me.
Well, I saw this site talked about over there and spent some time looking over there. The difference was obvious. Covers, while they have some great guys over there, is largely one big sandbox where the kids play.
This place is totally different. It really is all about making money!!!!!!

That's the bottomline.

Look, fellas, I'll keep it simple. I'll post the plays for now in the NBA forum on weekdays and in the NCAAF forum on Saturdays. Questions, I'll answer. But guys, u've got my word. I'm not gonna let anything affect my posted plays. Let's just all make some money, how bout it............

and Van, THERE ARE ABSOLUTELY NO HARD FEELINGS!!! I prolly grew up a little through all that mess. Well, now let's make CTG the site on the net!!!!!!!

 

[smo1a]

:shake:

Simply why I stated that I will not post further comment and will ignore, but know that you are spinning the wheels of irrationality when you try to talk systems with this guy.

That is the last you will hear me say about that.

:shake:

 

[HUNT]

gl moondawg.

Please no bashing from anyone, everyone deserves a clean slate here.

:shake:

 

[vanzack]

Vanzack how much do you believe in systems when cappin a game

I dont because I have never seen one that works, and I have seen thousands.

For the most part they are a psychology mind fuck play. The make you beleive there is an edge because they take advantage of the human minds weakness - to correllate and group things that have no true correllation. Just like all superstitions and human reasonings, we often look to things that have no causation on the desired effect.

Bottom line - correllation is not causation - and searching for patterns in random events is futile. The simple litmus test for me is to actually think about what is being proposed. Does it make sense? Is it possible that this works?

:cheers:

 

[moondawg]

...the best site on the net........

BASS, I wish I was computer savvy enough to do that.

 

[vanzack]

I'll be honest w/ u guys. Yes, VAN I am Panther95. I know you're a smart guy and didn't figure it'd take u long to figure it out. That's exactly why I kept my same style as far as how I write my posts. Honestly, I got caught up in all the bull over there and let my childish side come out. Yes, that affected things I did, plays I posted, # of plays, etc. It was crazy. I had never even seen any site that was a chatroom for bettors. I honestly didn'y know anything like that existed and I flat out got caught up in all the crap. I spent so much time responding to posts, I lost track of line movements, which also hurt me.
Well, I saw this site talked about over there and spent some time looking over there. The difference was obvious. Covers, while they have some great guys over there, is largely one big sandbox where the kids play.
This place is totally different. It really is all about making money!!!!!!

That's the bottomline.

Look, fellas, I'll keep it simple. I'll post the plays for now in the NBA forum on weekdays and in the NCAAF forum on Saturdays. Questions, I'll answer. But guys, u've got my word. I'm not gonna let anything affect my posted plays. Let's just all make some money, how bout it............

and Van, THERE ARE ABSOLUTELY NO HARD FEELINGS!!! I prolly grew up a little through all that mess. Well, now let's make CTG the site on the net!!!!!!!

Hey no problems from me either.

Good luck and good health, and I assure you that you are in the vanzack free zone - I will not get in to it at all here.

GL

:shake:

 

[Seabass]

good post, smo1a...thanks for getting us all back on track

 

[HUNT]

vanzack is right, a lot of systems do crash and burn...but If that is someone's style it is someone's style.

 

[abcs]

I dont because I have never seen one that works, and I have seen thousands.

For the most part they are a psychology mind fuck play. The make you beleive there is an edge because they take advantage of the human minds weakness - to correllate and group things that have no true correllation. Just like all superstitions and human reasonings, we often look to things that have no causation on the desired effect.

Bottom line - correllation is not causation - and searching for patterns in random events is futile. The simple litmus test for me is to actually think about what is being proposed. Does it make sense? Is it possible that this works?

:cheers:

THats how i seem them as well. I am a math guy and a stats guy. And they all seem like coincidence more than anything :shake: Oh yea and i hate stupid trends like 6 - 0 ats on tuesday night games even more.

 

[Seabass]

...the best site on the net........

BASS, I wish I was computer savvy enough to do that.

One of these days when I clear some time up, I'll set it up and let you know. And don't worry-I won't be spending time just for you-it's something that I've wanted to do for awhile...for some stuff I wanted to test out.

I'll PM you if I get around to it..

 

[3xChamps]

Please no Covers bullshit. Let him state his case and if anyone is interested, great. If not, trust your own instincts and do your own thing. Nothing in life is guaranteed and that goes for systems. For all we know, the shit may be hitting 65% for the year, but could hit at 25% this week. Pissing matches don't seem to work over here and that is why I have not posted on Covers since joining this forum.

Between this thread and G-Mans on the tOSU/MICH game, it's starting to feel like the BS that goes on at the other sites.

I never rant or bad mouth a fellow poster, but I don't want to see this great forum start turning out like the others. Please understand I say this with great respect for you vanzack :shake:

well said Smo1a, i haven't been to covers since CTG opened...:cheers:

 

[vanzack]

THats how i seem them as well. I am a math guy and a stats guy. And they all seem like coincidence more than anything :shake: Oh yea and i hate stupid trends like 6 - 0 ats on tuesday night games even more.

I am a math and science guy too. Almost to a fault. I have no faith in anything, I need everything proven to me.

My favorite systems are the craps systems you see - they used to be advertised on TV by a guy named Patrick I think. All you need to know about craps is that EVERY BET on the board (except behind the line which is contingent on a line bet so overall is is a negative expectation) has a negative expected value.

So the more you bet the lower your expected value becomes. Simple as that. There is no way to bet more to lose less. Period.

But these craps systems guys come out and fuck with your mind by using terms like "house money" and they make you beleive you are "insuring" your bets on the table. Its all horseshit mathematically because it goes back to the simple fact - every bet on the table has a negative EV so you cant turn that around to the positive by betting more.

Anyway, to each his own.

:cheers:

 

[Seabass]

Right on, Vanzack.

The other thing that people don't really understand on systems is how many bets it would actually take for any of these things to be statistically significant...If you assume that all bets are roughly 50/50, a system hitting 68% would need a LOT of bets to PROVE that it was actually better than a 50/50 system on a hot streak...if that makes sense.

 

[tru]

van i think people use tha word system very loosely.lets say this. if u basically cap every nfl game tha same an ur reason is tha same for pickin games to bet on isnt that tha defination of a system? something like what moondog is posting here i really dont think holds strong, no disrespect but i jus dont. i have backtested a pretty strong college football system, which is based on a good rhyme an reason. not some simple bullshit if i piss in a cup, put in on tha sidewalk an if 3 flys come by 9 hours later its a play on tha underdog, type shit.

 

[abcs]

Seabass is exactly.. U need a large large sample size to be statiscally significant. You also have to run the anova test to find the z statistic which will tell a lot if the hypothesis has a foundation.

 

[abcs]

BTW vanzack when are you gonna start posting your plays. I love hearing your insight

 

[HUNT]

Interesting discussion...never have been a systems guy myself, but am always intrigued.