Australian Open Round 3 Plays

Toronto_Mike

Toronto_Mike

Scent of a Woman
Ok so Round 1 was a wake up call, Round 2 was a response, Round 3 I have to be careful. This is where it starts to get really iffy with the lines, because there will be a ton of players that people had not expected to be in this position so how the books react is key.

Roger Federer vs Mikhail Youzhny
Mikhail Youzhny +8.5 $115 to win $100
Roger Federer has played Mikhail Youzhny 7 times and has won all 7 encounters....big deal. Federer has these sort of stats against practically everyone in the ATP. Problem is, Fed doesn't always breeze by Youzhny. In their last 3 encounters it has always come in the Round of 16 or later. There is no denying Federer can no longer afford to mess about like he did against Phau and Bjorkman in the first 2 rounds. Youzhny is a quality player. Now, Federer can look at this match in 2 ways. He can either take this seriously and destroy Youzhny or he can toy around. I would think the former is what he would be suggesting. Youzhny on the other hand knows, the last thing he wants to do is get embarassed. He has seen Federer 7 times in 7 years, i think its high time that the Russian figures Fed out.
 
T_Mike AIM messaged me and asked to post this play for him as well.

Parlay:
Jelena Jankovic ML
Lucie Safarova -3.5

$200 to win $214
 
Youzhny covers job well done.
Parlay cancels out to only Jankovic ML cause Yakimova retired.

Tomas Berdych ML
Dinara Safina ML
James Blake ML
Nikolay Davydenko ML
$100 to win $225

Tomas Berdych vs Dimitry Tursunov
Tomas Berdych -3.5 $60 to win $50
 
David Nalbandian vs Sebastien Grosjean
Sebastien Grosjean +5.5 $200 to win $160
We have to players who just grind it out. So far Nalbandian has been playing like shit, hasn't shown signs that he can really be a force to be reckoned with. Then we have Grosjean who is just a character on court. He is business, he is an excellent all around surface player who can tango distances with the best. Both these players do not destroy their opponents, they simply make the opposition work and work and work and tire the other one out. I can see this going at least 4 sets and perhaps even 5. Should be an interesting duel. For me Grosjean's current form and his ability to play with Nalbandians length is going to be key. Probably 2 of the fittest guys on the tour so why not take +5.5?
 
Nice to see you coming on as this thing deepens, Mike.

I usually start to get interested bout now. No upsets in the Mens for a couple of days, and the women's side looks just as sparse. That cant go on forever.
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
Nice to see you coming on as this thing deepens, Mike.

I usually start to get interested bout now. No upsets in the Mens for a couple of days, and the women's side looks just as sparse. That cant go on forever.
Click to expand...

Thanks BC.

You are right. I'm suprised with the amount of favorites just pulling through. We've seen a few upsets here and there but nothing major. Would of thought we'd see more on the women's side but i guess the bitches practiced on their serves this season, lol. Going to play very careful now with the parlays. I think we're going to see some players over valued. Mario Ancic and Tommy Robredo look like 2 great dog plays tomorrow and same goes for Shahar Peer on the womens side. Look into more reports if any injuries turn up.
 
How much of a real threat is Serena?

I wonder about the real level of her motivation. Frankly she's yesterdays news, but her name is gonna affect the odds depending on who she plays. Her opponent blew that last match, I wonder if the better bitches will be so kind.
 
Jankovic is no joke. On fire right on and i think she's really learnt her lesson from last season. Her biggest change so far has been her mental game. Like all players in any sport, having talent is great, but being able to control the emotions is much more important. I think Jankovic shows Serena how the WTA today is like.
 
Davydenko and Blake win so i am waiting on Safina and Berdych. They will play today due to the rain postponing matches played outside.

Looking at todays schedule...very interesting really, saw some movements in Dementieva vs Vaidisova started out with 1.90/1.80 and now its 2.10/1.65 in favor of Vaidisova not too sure what the hell happened there.
 
Lucie Safarova vs Amelie Mauresmo
Lucie Safarova +6.5 $60 to win $50
Ok so the top 2 seeds have just been pathetic. Sharapova and Mauresmo have not proven to me they really care as much. Where as Kim Clijsters and Martina Hingis are just destroying their opponents. Mauresmo's character is simple, she's a choker. She doesn't care for lesser opposition she just wants to get the win and move on. That's great but at times it gets to the point where she loses focus and realizes she could lose. Safarova has had more rest due to Yakimova retiring. I think 6.5 is too much for Mauresmo to cover considering she had to deal with Perry in a much more harder manner. Safarova should be able to cover this if she doesn't give up. The key here is the 1st set. Whether or not Safarova can keep it close or not. If Mauresmo blows her in the 1st set, then the bet would be a lost but if Safarova can get at least 3 games in the 1st, than its all good.
 
Good luck on plays tonight, guys.

Not that this means jack diddly today, but I remember vividly last year in San Diego when Jankovic took Serena to school in that tourney's SF. It was a demolition job by Jankovic, who controlled the play on every point.

Now granted now, this is a grand slam, so I'm not sure how much last year in San Diego has to do with a high stakes match in Melbourne.

The line with Serena as a heavy dog makes me think the books want the public on Serena, and they're making it easy. I believe the books gladly take the money off those betting Serena to win tonight. But, I am not interested in laying -200 chalk, either, on Jankovic vs Serena.

If Haas beats Mayer, he should be a decent price vs Nalbandian. And Haas has a real shot, as David just isn't on form like he was in Davis Cup 7 weeks ago.

Dementieva vs Vaidisova????? I don't mess with matches invloving Dementieva (serve) unless she's a +200 or higher dog. And I don't fade her, ever. She has the worst serve on the WTA and the most devastating ground attack on the WTA.

Ancic is nowhere close to form.....Roddick should beat him and cover the high 4 games, so long as Roddick doesn't melt down and blow a set if he gets mad about a call.......

Federer will demolish all comers. The dude's backhand now is as devastating as his forehand, and the only thing that could beat Federer is an injury. Any human opponent will be destroyed, probably in straights.

Murray/Nadal should be a good matchup. Nadal will try to get him in a physical grinder, and if Murray can hold serve routinely and avoid trying to slug it out with someone about 40 pounds of muscle bigger, Murray has a good chance.
 
I like Murray to beat nadal.. ( i think )

Sad to see hewitt get knocked out.. even sadder to see his wife have to leave. Good tourney so far.. Lookin for my girls martina and serena to go deep
 
Happy to be here, BetCrimes. Just wish the betting landscape weren't so dismal in this fouled up country where I reside, especially with Melbourne going on presently, Super14 coming up, AFL, and NRL. That's the stuff I will miss sorely.

Nonetheless, best of luck on your plays. I'll do what I can to help as far as passing on info.

I definitely know that Serena tonight at that plus price is nothing but a major trap. Jankovic at long odds is certainly no value, but those loading up on Serena are just what the bookies want.
 
clay,
good to see you here mate. Thanks for your opinions. I am still debating on the Jankovic deal, but so far Serena has played no one that can really hold their serve. Its not power vs power. You are right about people loading up because essentially the casual gambler will think oh Serena Williams an underdog? Jankovic is on fine form but the price is like you stated. She still has a crack in her game but at the current moment she is just demolishing every opponent.
 
BC and TM-

I look for Jelena to win routinely. I saw those 2 play last year in San Diego, and there was no question who was in control of the points.....

Jelena Jankovic

This tonight is all about Jankovic. So long as she doesn't get all female flustered cause it's a slam, and that she's a big fave playing a future hall of famer who has won ever slam there is, she should be just fine.
 
Richard Gasquet vs Tommy Robredo
Tommy Robredo ML @ 2.05 $150 to win $157.50
Ok here's the scoop, Gasquet is a hit or miss. He is a very streaky player and is very much like Safin in terms of his capabilities both physically and mentally. This kid still has a lot to learn about controlling his temper and keeping his focus. Tommy Robredo is a sound all around player, he's probably one of the more well rounded Spaniards on tour. Consistant performer, very classic approach to the game, no non sense. He also doesn't wear ridiculous outfits like Nadal. Anyways, the bottom line is that Robredo keeps his cool under the pressure whereas Gasquet becomes a Gascan if he doesn't get a call going his direction. He demolished Monfils in the 1st set, but managed to slip up a little bit before winning it. I expect Robredo to annoy the daylights out of Gasquet. Frustrate him, because talent wise, i would rate Gasquet higher than Robredo, but when it comes to experience and mental capabilities Robredo is far more superior. I think we see a 4 set match with Robredo coming out on top.
 
Can little Lucie Safarova hold here nerve and send Amelie packing????

Could this be the first real upset of the tourney???

So far, Melbourne '07 has been all about the fave, and that is bad.
 
Gasquet is a dangerous dog, but as a fave, he's like you said, "a gas can."

Robredo should have something to prove by being a dog today. Robredo, while he ain't no Federer, is a bona fide top 10 player coming off Shanghai Masters, and he is a dog to someone who's never lived up to his hype.
 
fuck u Safina! u damn skank! haha sorry had to vent. Oh well as long as Safarova and Berdych do their job i'll be happy
 
Clay,

Gamebookers has

Dementieva 2.10
Vaidisova 1.65

Like you said her serve is by far the ugliest shit ever and whats worse is her serving coach is Richard Kraijek! i mean come on you cannot be that bad when you have him as a teacher.
 
TM-

I wouldn't be too enthusiastic about laying chalk against Elena. Elena may be the most dangerous dog in the entire WTA. Awesome ground attack. She could frutrate the hell out of young Nicole with a lot of service breaks.
 
that's what i'm thinking, perhaps even playing Elena at 2.10

anyways i played live in game

Safarova to win 2nd Set @ 2.20 $300 to win $360
 
taking a swing at this one. Big play.

Roger Federer vs Novak Djokovic
Over 33.5 games $300 to win $255
Federer will do his thing but he finally meets a quality opponent in this tournament. Djokovic has the top 10 quality and is playing like a top 5 player. The kid has got an amazing forehand and should pose a nuisance to Federer. I believe Federer will win of course but not in an easy fashion. I expect Djokovic to hold his serve and take advantage of Feder's slightly lazy attitude. Djokovic could very well take one set in this battle which would be ideal.
 
TM-

Good work on Lucie...that took some balls to pull that one off in livebet.

On young Novak.......yes, absolutely astounding ability, but the kid gets pissed off way too much. If he cops an attitude and gets flustered in set 1, then Roger will annihilate him. Novak will have to be on his best behavior immediately and throughout to have any shot of making this match competitive as far as odds and lines are concerned.

Good luck on Elena....seems like a good spot for her today vs young Nicole.
 
don't like how the betting public is on Robredo. Looks like a set up. Some dumbnut on covers goes off saying its a "gift" books aren't stupid.
 
Jelena got whupped.
Andy covered 4.5.
Roger is beating the fuck out of Novak.

TM-

Good work on Robredo. What happened to Elena?

I look for Haas to beat David tonight.
 
obviously didn't play Elena, we finally start to see some dogs win today. Na Li, Robredo, Shara Peer, Williams, Safarova.

Going to lose this bet if it doesn't go to at least 4 sets.
 
Round 3:
8-2 +$477

Overall:
Round 1: 4-9-1 -$753
Round 2: 5-2-0 +$485.80
Round 3: 8-2-0 +$477
Overall: 19-13-1 +$209.80
 
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