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AUGUST MLB

mrpickem

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
°🥂⋆.ೃ🍾࿔*:･

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July was my best month this season and after a small profit last night, I have managed my high point of the season, unit-wise, at +102.39u. To illustrate this crazy run I've been on, after June 3rd my record was [565-576 -187.25u], so since then I have gone 499-398 while adding +289.65 units!
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One thing of note that I've explained in the past is the way I post, 4 posted units is equal to one real unit...therefore I'm actually only +25.6u on the year and +72.4u since June 3rd. It's been a fun ride, and will be near impossible to continue such a run, but I'll be in the box swinging away and giving my best shot. I'm only as good as my next card, so onto Friday Aug 1;


8/1 FRI
  • 6/4.43 CIN -135
  • 6/8.16 WAS +136
  • 3/3.78 SF +126
  • 3/1.71 SF +1½ -175
  • 3/2.10 PIT -143
  • 3/3.15 PIT -1½ +105
  • 4/4.00 COL u11½ +100
  • 4/2.52 SD -159
  • 3/4.14 KAN +138
  • 3/1.96 KAN +1½ -153
  • 4/3.81 TOR u8 -105
  • 7/7.35 MIN +105
  • 4/2.00 MIN +1½ -200
  • 4/3.33 CLE u7½ -120
  • 4/3.81 SEA u7½ -105
  • 4/5.20 BAL +130
  • 6/7.50 TAM +125

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​

randoms...
  • STREAKS: (PIT, SD) 5, DET 4, ARI -5, SF -6
  • DOGS ON ML 59-55 51.8% +20.5% ROI L10 DAYS
  • DOGS ON RL 203-111 64.6% +7.6% ROI L30 DAYS
  • BEST/WORST STARTERS L365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
    • PETERSON(NYM) 14-1 +55.8% @HOME w/ 3.581
    • RAY(SF) 8-4 +29.8% AWAY w/ 4.009
    • PIVETTA(SD) 10-5 +16.5% @HOME w/ 3.560
    • ELDER(ATL) 2-6 -57.8% AWAY w/ 4.171
    • HEANEY(PIT) 3-11 -60.5% AWAY w/ 4.603
  • HOT/COLD STARTERS L7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
    • JUNK(MIA) 5-2 +67.1% w/3.58 / 1.12 / 3.681 ROGERS(BAL) 5-2 +33.2% w/1.71 / 0.86 / 3.750
    • WACHA(KAN) 2-6 -50.7% w/4.43 / 1.31 / 4.391
    • WILLIAMS(CLE) 2-6 -53.2% w/3.00 / 1.29 / 4.296
    • FLAHERTY(DET) 2-6 -54.3% w/6.57 / 1.67 / 3.559
  • FUN FACTOR ~ 2025 ROCKIES:
    • FADE COL @HOME ON ML: 38-14 +11.3% ROI
    • FADE COL @HOME ON RL: 32-20 +5.5% ROI
    • COL @HOME UNDERS 27-22-3 FOR 5.5% ROI
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  • THE MIGHTY MARLINS HAVE THE MOST WINS OF ANY TEAM THE LAST 7 WEEKS!
  • THE MIGHTY MARLINS ARE THE BEST BET BY A GOOD BIT +20.7u TO +13.7u FOR #2 MIL THE LAST 7 WEEKS!
  • THE MIGHTY MARLINS HAVE THE BEST UNDER RECORD BY FAR AT 67% UNDERS THE LAST 7 WEEKS!
  • THE MIGHTY MARLINS ARE THE BEST AWAY TEAM BET THIS YEAR BY FAR AT +26.6% ROI TO +11.2% ROI FOR THE #2 ANGELS(IN JUN-JUL MIA IS 19-9 AWAY AT AVG +133 LINE FOR +59.9% ROI)
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AUGUST: [9-8 -9.32u]
LAST: [9-8 -9.32u]

8/2 SAT
  • 7/3.63 PIT -193
  • 4/3.85 COL u10 -104
  • 5/2.50 NYM -200
  • 4/2.35 STL +1½ -170
  • 4/4.00 SD u8½ +100
  • 3/4.50 MIN +150
  • 3/2.07 MIN +1½ -145
  • 4/4.20 CLE u7 +105
  • 4/4.20 HOU o9½ +105
  • 5/2.38 TEX +1½ -210
  • 6/7.44 TAM +124
  • 4/4.20 TAM u8½ +105
  • 7/3.57 CHC -196
  • 8/8.00 CHC u8 +100
  • 6/6.24 MIA +104
  • 3/2.80 SAC -107
  • 3/1.75 SAC +1½ -171

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randoms...
  • STREAKS: SD 6, (TAM, NYM) -4, ARI -6
  • DOGS ON ML 60-55 52.2% +21.1% ROI L10 DAYS
  • DOGS ON RL 203-110 64.9% +7.8% ROI L30 DAYS
  • BEST/WORST STARTERS L365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
    • BOYD(CHC) 14-3 +35.1% @HOME w/ 3.770
    • SNELL(LAD) 6-0 +79.3% AWAY w/ 6.851
    • WHEELER(PHI) 14-2 +28.6% @HOME w/ 2.648
    • BUHLER(BOS) 10-4 +29.8% @HOME w/ 4.722
    • SKUBAL(DET) 11-5 +15.7% AWAY w/ 2.338
    • SENGA(NYM) 7-1 +30.6% @HOME w/ 4.174
    • STRIER(ATL) 2-5 -52.6% AWAY w/ 3.518
    • GOMBER(COL) 1-8 -75.1% @HOME w/ 5.654
  • HOT/COLD STARTERS L7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
    • VASQUEZ(SD) 6-1 +79.2% w/3.78 / 1.32 / 5.961
    • CASTILLO(SEA) 6-2 +52.2% w/3.02 / 1.11 / 4.054
    • BOYD(CHC) 6-2 +21.8% w/1.84 / 0.80 / 3.770
    • BURNS(CIN) 1-5 -59.7% w/6.25 / 1.54 / 2.892
    • GOMBER(COL) 1-7 -55% w/6.28 / 1.66 / 5.654
    • CIVALE(CHW) 1-7 -72.8% w/4.10 1.32/ 5.027
  • FUN FACTOR ~ 2025 ROCKIES:
    • FADE COL @HOME ON ML: 38-15 +9.8% ROI
    • FADE COL @HOME ON RL: 32-21 +4.1% ROI
    • COL @HOME UNDERS 27-23-3 FOR 3.6% ROI

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Note: KAN removed as "Top Play" Friday, after Gausman announced for TOR

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Notes...NYM added as Top Play and CLE for lean yesterday(no lines early for either)

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Would you look at that, MIA now the best bet on the year!

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AUGUST: [18-16 -4.94u]
LAST: [9-8 +4.38u]

8/3 SUN
  • 3/4.68 WAS +156
  • 3/2.86 WAS +1½ -105
  • 6/5.71 WAS u8½ -105
  • 5/7.00 SF +140
  • 3/2.00 SF +1½ -150
  • 4/4.20 NYM u8½ +105
  • 3/4.92 STL +164
  • 3/2.22 STL +1½ -135
  • 4/4.20 SD u8 +105
  • 4/4.52 BOS +113
  • 4/4.92 KAN +123
  • 6/6.00 TOR u8 +100
  • 5/7.40 MIN +148
  • 3/2.07 MIN +1½ -145
  • 4/3.48 CLE u8½ -115
  • 4/3.48 LAA u9½ -115
  • 6/4.33 TEX -138
  • 3/5.16 TAM +172
  • 3/3.30 TAM +1½ +110
  • 10/10.5 TAM u8½ +105
  • 4/2.16 PHI -185
  • 6/6.24 MIA +104
  • 8/8.40 MIA u8 +105
  • 5/8.00 BAL +160
  • 5/3.76 BAL +1½ -133
  • 4/3.81 CHC u8 -105
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randoms...
  • STREAKS: (BOS, CLE, MIA) 4, (WAS, MIN) -4
  • DOGS ON ML 57-55 50.9% +18.5% ROI L10 DAYS
  • DOGS ON RL 204-112 64.6% +7.3% ROI L30 DAYS
  • BEST/WORST STARTERS L365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
    • BASSITT(TEN) 14-4 +45.8% @HOME w/ 3.618
    • SANCHEZ(PHI) 14-1 +48.2% @HOME w/ 2.808
    • YAMAMOTO(LAD) 9-4 +11.8% AWAY w/ 3.068
    • KELLER(PIT) 4-10 -39.8% AWAY w/ 4.109
  • HOT/COLD STARTERS L7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
    • LUGO(KAN) 6-2 +54.5% w/2.81 / 1.10 / 4.150
    • VALDEZ(HOU) 6-1 +58.2% w/1.64 / 1.16 / 2.920
    • GIOLITO(BOS) 6-2 +47.4% w/2.44 / 1.02 / 4.129
    • MORTON(DET) 5-2 +53.3% w/4.46 / 1.41 / 4.361
    • PALLANTE(STL) 2-5 -48.5% w/4.20 / 1.18 / 3.800
    • BURNS(CIN) 1-5 -59.7% w/6.25 / 1.54 / 2.480
    • YOUNG(BAL) 1-5 -65.7% w/6.75 1.54/ 4.310
    • RODRIGUEZ(ARI) 1-6 -75.7% w/4.66 1.75/ 4.170
  • FUN FACTOR ~ 2025 ROCKIES:
    • FADE COL @HOME ON ML: 38-16 +7.4% ROI
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Crappy day yesterday as the unders were having a hard time. Actually the totals have been a bit of a hindrance for me lately...but I'm sticking with 'em.

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AUGUST: [27-32 -28.13u]
LAST: [9-16 -23.19u]

8/4 MON
  • 4/3.81 PIT u8½ -105
  • 3/3.90 ATL +130
  • 6/7.80 ARI +130
  • 4/3.48 ARI u9½ -115
  • 5/8.25 STL +165
  • 3/2.31 STL +1½ -130
  • 4/3.48 STL o8 -115
  • 3/1.95 BOS -153
  • 4/3.20 KAN o9 -125
  • 4/4.00 TEX u8 +100
  • 3/3.30 TAM +110
  • 4/2.29 TAM +1½ -175
  • 8/7.62 LAA u8½ -105
  • 8/7.06 MIA -113
  • 7/3.65 PHI -192
  • 3/4.80 CLE +160
  • 3/2.22 CLE +1½ -135
  • 4/3.20 NYM u8½ -125
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​
randoms...
  • STREAKS: (BOS, MIA) 5, WAS -5
  • DOGS ON ML 85-85 50% +15.3% ROI L14 DAYS
  • DOGS ON RL 201-118 63% +5.1% ROI L30 DAYS
    • KIKUCHI(LAA) 12-5 +24.3% @HOME w/ 4.081
    • MANAEA(NYM) 7-1 +45.3% @HOME w/ 2.896
    • MIZE(DET) 7-3 +19.9% @HOME w/ 4.082
    • FALTER(KAN) 4-10 -20.3% AWAY w/ 4.931
    • SOROKA(CHC) 1-6 -71.4% @HOME w/ 4.056

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A few tidbits and notes:
  • In case anyone wonders about units won/lost on the model record. I always use one unit at risk on both favorites and underdogs.
  • For instance, if line is -200 the play would be risking unit to win .5 units or 1/.5
    • If line was +200 it would be 1/2.
    • I like it this way for added weight on the dogs.
    • Most folks play a unit bet is to win on favorites, so on -200 it's 2/1 or twice as much. It would go much higher with big juice like -300 would be risk 3 to win 1...while my way is risk 1 to get .33. Just being transparent.
  • One other thing, I play early in AM, like before 8am and the model is based on them lines. I rarely come back and re-run at adjusted lines, but do on rare occasion. What I do is the next day when scoring result, I do add starters that may not have been announced early the day before, and obviously I update the line on the games when starter updated. This is for grading purpose. Unfortunately, I very rarely play the updated starter(s). If the new starter/line makes the team a top play or lean I try to note it on next day's post, but may not always think to do so.
  • Today I did have MIN and under selected but none of my 3 books(betanything, bettorsden, heritage) had lines out...I may come back and play it but only 50/50 I will.
  • Best of luck everyone. The model has done well this year so far. In the past, generally around mid to late August the model has fallen off and not done well for last 30-40 games. The lines tighten, so I always lower the percentage threshold for selecting play(s). Currently it's at 21%, so if I don't lower that I will see fewer and fewer plays. The leans currently are over 11.5% but less than 21%. Based on the best line I get an implied percent of winning, where my model figures the actual percent of winning(lol). when implied line is over 21% different than actual line I get a top play. You get the idea... Let's fukn go!

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AUGUST: [37-42 -23.85u]
LAST: [10-10 +4.28u]

8/5 TUE
  • 6/4.11 SF -146
  • 4/3.51 PIT u7½ -114
  • 3/2.14 MIL -140
  • 6/7.32 ARI +122
  • 3/5.07 STL +169
  • 4/3.48 STL o9 -115
  • 6/7.74 MIN +129
  • 7/3.11 BOS -225
  • 6/4.62 TEX -130
  • 2/2.26 TAM +113
  • 4/2.09 TAM +1½ -191
  • 3/2.86 HOU -105
  • 4/3.59 WAS u8½ -112
  • 6/7.32 BAL +122
  • 3/4.05 COL +1½ +135
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randoms...
  • STREAKS: BOS 6, MIL 4, NYY -4, WAS -5
  • DOGS ON ML 85-83 50.6% +16.7% ROI L14 DAYS
  • DOGS ON RL 105-63 62.5% +4.0% ROI L14 DAYS
  • OVERS 43-34 55.8% +6.2% ROI L7 DAYS
  • BEST/WORST STARTERS L365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
    • BERRIOS(TOR) 12-5 +47.8% AWAY w/ 4.330
    • NELSON(ARI) 6.2 +44.2% @HOME w/ 4.038
    • IMANAGA(CHC) 8-2 +32% @HOME w/ 4.703
    • PADDACK(DET) 3-7 -44.2% @HOME w/ 4.489
    • PEPIOT(TAM) 4-12 -46.4% AWAY w/ 4.010
    • MARTIN(CHW) 1-10 -76% AWAY w/ 4.264
  • HOT/COLD STARTERS L7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
    • QUANTRIL(MIA) 7-1 +110.5% w/3.52 / 1.02 / 4.330
    • BERRIOS(TOR) 7-1 +64.9% w/3.89 / 1.18 / 4.330
    • NELSON(ARI) 6-2 +53.1% w/2.17 / 0.90 / 4.038
    • EOVALDI(TEX) 5-1 +53.7% w/1.34 / 1.07 / 2.895
    • PERALTA(MIL) 6-2 +39.8% w/4.01 / 1.23 / 4.044
    • CROCHET(BOS) 6-1 +38.9% w/2.00 / 1.20 / 2.670
    • IMANAGA(CHC) 5-2 +30.5% w/3.76 / 0.97 / 4.703
    • BURROWS(PIT) 2-5 -28.6% w/3.90 / 1.27 / 3.847
    • GORE(WAS) 2-5 -41.3% w/6.06 1.66/ 3.496
    • PEPIOT(TAM) 2-6 -60.4% w/5.31 1.35/ 4.010
  • FUN FACTOR ~ 2025 ROCKIES:
    • FADE COL @HOME ON ML: 40-16 +8.9% ROI

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AUGUST: [46-48 -17.44u]
LAST: [9-6 +6.41u]

8/6 WED
  • 4/3.48 PIT u8 -115
  • 7/8.26 CIN +118
  • 3/1.88 CIN +1½ -160
  • 8/8.00 CHC u7½ +100
  • 7/12.6 STL +180
  • 4/3.64 LAD u9 -110
  • 8/10.24 ARI +128
  • 10/8.0 TEX u8½ -125
  • 4/4.16 LAA +104
  • 4/3.64 LAA u9 -110
  • 4/4.00 KAN o9 +100
  • 4/2.61 BAL +1½ -153
  • 8/6.96 PHI u8½ -115
  • 3/4.56 CLE +152
  • 3/2.14 CLE +1½ -140
  • 8/7.27 NYM u8 -110
  • 5/2.43 TOR -206
  • 6/5.88 MIA -102
  • 3/3.39 WAS +113
  • 3/2.14 WAS +1½ -140
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randoms...
  • STREAKS: BOS 7, MIL 5, NYY -5, WAS -6
  • DOGS ON ML 85-83 50.6% +16.7% ROI L14 DAYS
  • OVERS 62-50 55.4% +4.9% ROI L10 DAYS
  • BEST/WORST STARTERS L365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
    • PETERSON(NYM) 14-2 +47.8% HOME w/ 3.630
    • HORTON(CHC) 5-2 +10.7% @HOME w/ 4.489
    • WILLIAMS(CLE) 5-11 -36.9% AWAY w/ 4.194
  • HOT/COLD STARTERS L7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
    • JUNK(MIA) 6-2 +75.7% w/4.43 / 1.15 / 3.740
    • CANNON(CHW) 5-1 +98% w/4.99 / 1.44 / 4.750
    • SPRINGS(SAC) 6-2 +61.9% w/3.11 / 0.95 / 4.548
    • QUINTANA(MIL) 5-2 +41.8% w/3.69 / 1.26 / 4.786
    • KIRBY(SEA) 6-2 +35.9% w/3.11 / 0.99 / 3.396
    • HEANEY(PIT) 2-5 -41.2% w/8.40 / 1.77 / 4.696
    • BAZ(TAM) 2-6 -53.6% w/5.21 / 1.35 / 3.892
    • FLAHERTY(DET) 2-6 -54.3% w/4.99 / 1.49 / 3.577
  • FUN FACTOR ~ 2025 ROCKIES:
    • FADE COL @HOME ON ML: 41-16 +9.6% ROI
    • FADE COL @HOME ON RL: 35-22 +5.5% ROI
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AUGUST: [61-52 +37.64u]
LAST: 15-4-1 +55.08u]

8/7 THU
  • 8/8.40 PIT u7 +105
  • 3/2.70 MIA -111
  • 6/7.20 WAS +120
  • 4/4.00 WAS u9 +100
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randoms...
  • STREAKS: MIL 6, (COL, NYM) -4
  • DOGS ON ML 82-85 49.1% +13.6% ROI L14 DAYS
  • OVERS 64-51-11 55.7% +6.0% ROI L10 DAYS
  • BEST/WORST STARTERS L365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
    • GILBERT(SEA) 10-4 +18.3% @HOME w/ 2.402
    • HOT/COLD STARTERS L7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
    • LOPEZ(SAC) 6-2 +70.9% w/3.38 / 1.23 / 4.360
  • GILBERT(SEA) 6-2 +31.5% w/4.19 / 1.14 / 2.402
    • SMITH(CHW) 1-4 -58.8% w/9.82 / 1.64 / 4.510
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It figures, a Wednesday would deliver my best day so far this season last night, besting a +52u day in June. Crazy thing was it could have been my best day in over 5 years if Zona hadn't blown the lead in the 9th inning. That single game was an 18.24u swing, so if it cashed I would have had a day of days at 16-3-1 +73.32u...ah dream on... Oh well, +55 units ain't half bad.

🥳




Totals showed up strong yesterday, but ML plays have been strongest last few weeks.

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AUGUST: [62-54 +32.64u]
LAST: [1-2-1 -5.00u]

8/8 FRI
  • 4/4.00 PIT +100
  • 4/3.81 PIT U8 -105
  • 4/4.08 ATL +102
  • 3/3.33 NYM +111
  • 3/1.54 NYM +1½ -195
  • 4/3.64 STL u8½ -110
  • 4/1.76 ARI -227
  • 4/3.81 ARI u9 -105
  • 3/2.73 HOU -110
  • 3/2.73 BAL -110
  • 3/4.35 CHW +145
  • 3/2.33 MIN -129
  • 6/5.45 DET u7½ -110
  • 3/1.72 SD -174
  • 4/4.80 SD -1½ +120
  • 4/3.64 SD u8 -110
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randoms...
  • STREAKS: MIL 6, SEA 4,(COL, CHW, NYM) -4
  • DOGS ON ML 153-163 48.4% +11.3% ROI L30 DAYS
  • OVERS 59-48-10 55.1% +5.4% ROI L10 DAYS
  • BEST/WORST STARTERS L365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
    • SUGANO(BAL) 7-3 +29.8% @HOME w/ 4.605
    • SKUBAL(DET) 13-4 +13.7% @HOME w/ 2.348
    • KELLER(PIT) 5-12 -39.6% @HOME w/ 4.109
  • HOT/COLD STARTERS L7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
    • SUGANO(BAL) 5-2 +76.8% w/6.88 / 1.76 / 4.605
    • LUGO(KAN) 6-2 +57.6% w/3.50 / 1.17 / 4.109
    • CASTILLO(SEA) 6-2 +52.2% w/2.93 / 1.15 / 4.109
    • WODRUFF(MIL) 5-0 +71.8% w/2.22 / 0.64 / 2.920
    • RASMUSSEN(TAM) 5-2 +34.6% w/3.42 / 1.18 / 3.425
    • SKUBAL(DET) 5-2 +8.8% w/2.42 / 0.78 / 2.348
    • ELDER(ATL) 2-5 -49.2% w/8.91 / 2.10 / 4.167
    • CIVALE(CHW) 2-6 -45.8% w/3.56 / 1.12 / 4.817
    • BURNS(CIN) 1-7 -57.3% w/6.03 / 1.48 / 2.480
    • GOMBER(COL) 1-7 -62.7% w/6.98 / 1.73 / 5.430
  • FUN FACTOR ~ 2025 ROCKIES:
    • FADE COL AWAY ON ML: 42-14 +6.6% ROI
    • FADE COL AWAY ON RL: 33-23 +7.5% ROI
    • COL UNDER AWAY 32-22-2 59.3% 13.4% ROI
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AUGUST: [71-62 +27.99u]
LAST: [9-8 -4.65u]

8/9 SAT
  • 4/3.48 G1-ATL u9½ -115
  • 4/3.81 PIT u8½ -105
  • 4/4.20 STL u8½ +105
  • 6.30/3 ARI -210
  • 3/2.73 ARI -1½ -110
  • 4/3.64 ARI u9½ -110
  • 3/2.58 HOU -116
  • 3/3.63 CHW +121
  • 6/7.14 LAA +119
  • 5.40/4 SD -135
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randoms...
  • STREAKS: MIL 7, SEA 5,CLE 4, (COL, CHW, NYM) -5
  • DOGS ON ML 150-168 47.2% +8.5% ROI L30 DAYS
  • OVERS 44-37-4 54.3% +4.0% ROI L7 DAYS
  • BEST/WORST STARTERS L365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
    • DEGROM(TEX) 9-3 +16.3% @HOME w/ 3.203
    • SNELL(LAD) 5-1 +29.5% @HOME w/ 4.598
    • BLALOCK(COL) 2-5 -1.4% AWAY w/ 4.809
    • CAMERON(KAN) 2-5 -34.6% AWAY w/ 4.025
    • FEDDE(ATL) 3-9 -44.7% @HOME w/ 5.255
    • RODRIGUEZ(ARI) 4-10 -49.2% @HOME w/ 4.809
  • HOT/COLD STARTERS L7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
    • MARTINEZ(CIN) 6-1 +76.4% w/5.05 / 1.17 / 4.348
    • GIOLITO(BOS) 6-2 +42.4% w/2.52 / 0.98 / 4.129
    • VALDEZ(HOU) 5-2 +35.2% w/2.25 / 1.11 / 2.920
    • WODRUFF(MIL) 5-0 +71.8% w/2.22 / 0.64 / 2.920
    • RODRIGUEZ(ARI) 2-5 -45.9% w/4.87 / 1.73 / 4.170
    • YOUNG(BAL) 1-6 -70.6% w/5.79 / 1.53 / 4.310
    • PALLANTE(STL) 1-6 -73.8% w/4.76 / 1.31 / 3.800
    • FEDDE(ATL) 0-7 -100% w/10.73 / 2.02 / 5.255
  • FUN FACTOR ~ 2025 ROCKIES:
    • FADE COL AWAY ON ML: 43-14 +7.1% ROI
    • FADE COL AWAY ON RL: 34-23 +8.8% ROI
    • COL UNDER AWAY 33-22-2 60% 14.8% ROI

1754737060126.jpeg1754737215578.jpeg
 
AUGUST: [78-68 +37.15u]
LAST: [7-6 +9.16u]

8/10 SUN
  • 3/2.88 CIN -104
  • 4/1.86 CIN +1½ -215
  • 6/6.00 PIT u8 +100
  • 4/3.60 MIL -111
  • 6/6.60 STL +110
  • 6/2.45 ARI -245
  • 3/2.41 ARI -1½ -124
  • 4/3.64 KAN o9½ -110
  • 4/7.40 HOU +185
  • 5/4.76 HOU +1½ -105
  • 4/3.64 NYY u9 -110
  • 2/3.60 LAA +180
  • 3/2.73 LAA +1½ -110
  • 4/3.64 DET u9 -110
  • 3/3.78 CHW +126
  • 3/2.31 CHW +1½ -130
  • 6/5.22 CHW u9 -115
  • 4/2.86 TAM +1½ -140
  • 4/3.48 SEA u7½ -115
  • 5/6.75 TEX +135
  • 3/2.34 TEX +1½ -128
  • 8/7.27 TEX u8 -110
  • 4/3.03 SD -132
  • 9/14.04 TOR +156
  • 3/2.40 TOR +1½ -125
  • 4/4.00 LAD u8½ +100
1754825438075.png

randoms...
  • STREAKS: MIL 8, SEA 6,CLE 5, (COL, CHW, NYM) -6
  • DOGS ON ML 147-174 45.8% +5.5% ROI L30 DAYS
  • FAVS ON RL 43-40 +10.95 ROI L7 DAYS
  • OVERS 44-37-4 54.3% +3.4% ROI L7 DAYS
  • BEST/WORST STARTERS L365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
    • GRAY(STL) 9-3 +16.3% @HOME w/ 3.203
    • CECCONI(CLE) 15-3 +29.5% @HOME w/ 2.949
    • PRIESTER(MIL) 6-1 +55.5% @HOME w/ 3.754
    • IMANAGA(CHC) 9-4 +27.7% AWAY w/ 4.588
    • MIZE(DET) 8-3 +23.2% @HOME w/ 4.096
    • WOO(SEA) 9-4 +17.2% @HOME w/ 3.560
    • FRIED(NYY) 10-4 +8.0% @HOME w/ 3.414
    • MARTIN(CHW) 4-9 -27.1% @HOME w/ 4.286
    • GORDON(COL) 0-5 -100% AWAY w/ na
    • VERLANDER(SF) 4-9 -27.1% @HOME w/ 4.737
  • HOT/COLD STARTERS L7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
    • HOUSER(TAM) 6-1 +97.9% w/2.80 / 1.36 / 4.249
    • PRIESTER(MIL) 7-0 +92.1% w/2.66 / 1.13 / 3.754
    • QUANTRILL(MIA) 6-2 +79.5% w/4.42 / 1.22 / 4.506
    • LAUER(TOR) 6-2 +39.3% w/2.82 / 1.01 / 3.914
    • BURROWS(PIT) 2-5 -28.6% w/4.45 / 1.27 / 3.951
    • GORE(WAS) 2-5 -41.3% w/7.37 / 1.85 / 3.573
    • VERLANDER(SF) 1-7 -70.8% w/4.06 / 1.49 / 4.737
  • FUN FACTOR ~ 2025 ROCKIES:
    • FADE COL AWAY ON ML: 44-14 +7.7% ROI
    • FADE COL AWAY ON RL: 34-24 +7.1% ROI
    • COL UNDER AWAY 33-23-2 60% 12.98% ROI
1754825696757.jpeg
1754825866065.png
https://twitter.com/x/status/1954251171935465983
 
Last edited:
AUGUST: [94-78 +68.22u]
LAST: [16-10 +31.07u]

8/11 MON
  • 6/4.92 CIN -122
  • 4/3.81 CIN u9½ -105
  • 4/7.00 PIT +175
  • 4/3.81 COL +1½ -105
  • 4/4.20 STL u8½ +105
  • 5/6.15 SD +123
  • 4/3.48 NYY u9 -115
  • 4/4.00 CHW u8½ +100
  • 4/3.48 HOU u7½ -115
  • 4/4.00 TAM +100
  • 4/3.48 SAC u9½ -115
  • 4/5.44 WAS +136
  • 3/1.89 TEX -159
  • 3/4.92 LAA +164
s-l1200.jpg


randoms...
  • STREAKS: MIL 9, SEA 7, CLE 5, TEX -4, (COL, NYM) -7
  • DOGS ON ML 148-172 46.2% +6.1% ROI L30 DAYS
  • FAVS ON RL 41-42 +8.9% ROI L7 DAYS
    • FALTER(KAN) 12-5 +41.4% @HOME w/ 4.968
    • CROCHET(BOS) 12-5 +39.3% AWAY w/ 2.677
    • YAMAMOTO(LAD) 10-4 +15.5% AWAY w/ 3.009
    • PADDOCK(DET) 3-9 -44% AWAY w/ 4.536
    • SORIANO(LAA) 4-10 -44% @HOME w/ 3.507
    • PEPIOT(TAM) 5-12 -37.3% AWAY w/ 3.999
    • HEANEY(PIT) 3-12 -64.1% AWAY w/ 4.788
1754912803401.png
1754912853953.png1754912904131.png
1754913149337.png
NEW HIGH-WATER MARK ON THE SEASON! 🚀
​
1754911517813.png
HELLUVA FINISH IN LA, AFTER THIS GUY, 🢁 THE CLOSER PITCHED THE 8TH AND 1 OUT IN 9TH WHILE WALKING 5 AND ALLOWING LAD TO TIE IT IN 8TH. THEN HE LEAVE WITH BASES LOADED 1 OUT IN 9TH WITH OHTANI COMING TO BAT. ROOKIE 23-YEAR-OLD MASON FLUHARTY(JUST PROMOTED FROM AAA ON JUL 22) THEN ENTERS THE GAME AND PROCEEDS TO MAKE OHTANI LOOK BAD WITH BREAKING BALLS AWAY AND IN THE DIRT. THEN GETS THE STRIKEOUT ON A HIGH FASTBALL OUT OF THE ZONE, THE 2ND TIME HE K'D OHTANI IN THE 2 TIMES THEY FACED IN THE SERIES. NEXT, HE GOT A MOOKIE GROUNDER TO SHORT TO CLOSE OUT THE SAVE. BIG THING FOR ME IS THAT IT WAS MY BIGGEST PLAY(BIGGEST SWING) OF THE YEAR.
1754912474477.jpeg
tumblr_nqhch2IfvC1qfdwsbo1_540.jpg
 
SF shows as Top Model play now. I didn't have a line earlier even though I bet it at another book, I did not notice that the line was blank on model. I'm still going to stick with Padres myself, even though Webb is solid,

1754929407854.png
 
AUGUST: [103-83 +82.48u]
LAST: [9-5 +14.26u]

8/12 WED
  • 6/6.30 CIN u9 +105
  • 4/5.00 ATL +125
  • 6/5.71 NYM u8½ -105
  • 3/5.94 MIL -1½ +198
  • 4/3.48 MIL u7 -115
  • 6/3.08 STL -195
  • 3/3.00 STL -1½ +100
  • 3/3.18 SD +106
  • 4/3.70 SD u7½ -108
  • 3/4.44 BAL +148
  • 4/4.20 SEA o9½ +105
  • 3/2.73 HOU -110
  • 2/3.60 HOU -1½ +180
  • 4/3.48 TAM o9½ -115
  • 7/9.31 MIA +133
  • 3/1.88 MIA +1½ -160
  • 4/3.64 CLE u9 -110
  • 3/3.09 CHC +103
  • 3/1.62 CHC +1½ -185
  • 4/6.20 LAA +155

1754995184448.png

randoms...
  • STREAKS: MIL 10, SEA 7, PHI 4, NYM -7, COL -8
  • DOGS ON ML 146-169 46.3% +6.7% ROI L30 DAYS
  • FAVS ON RL 38-40 +7.7% ROI L7 DAYS
  • BEST/WORST STARTERS L365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
    • KIRBY(SEA) 9-3 +34.3% AWAY w/ 3.311
    • FREELAND(COL) 4-11 -22.7% AWAY w/ 4.297
    • STRIDER(ATL) 2-5 -52.6% AWAY w/ 3.684
    • FLAHERTY(DET) 5-11 -45.7% AWAY w/ 3.674
  • HOT/COLD STARTERS L7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
    • JUNK(MIA) 6-2 +70% w/4.85 / 1.20 / 3.867
    • LOPEZ(SAC) 6-2 +64.6% w/3.02 / 1.08 / 4.073
    • BERRIOS(TOR) 7-1 +364.1% w/4.75 / 1.32 / 4.336
    • PERALTA(MIL) 6-2 +35.4% w/3.59 / 1.20 / 4.043
    • KIRBY(SEA) 6-2 +26% w/2.66 / 0.95 / 3.311
    • FLAHERTY(DET) 2-6 -54.3% w/4.07 / 1.41 / 3.674
    • BAZ(TAM) 2-6 -54.5% w/5.16 / 1.37 / 3.835
  • FUN FACTOR ~ 2025 ROCKIES:
    • FADE COL AWAY ON ML: 46-14 +8.7% ROI
    • FADE COL AWAY ON RL: 35-25 +6.7% ROI
    • COL UNDER AWAY 34-24-2 58.6% 12.3% ROI

1754994966812-jpeg.100611
 
AUGUST: [110-96 +61.32u]
LAST: [7-13 -21.16u]

8/13 THU
  • 2/3.78 PIT +189
  • 5/4.35 PIT +1½ -115
  • 6/5.71 MIL u7½ -105
  • 10/4.94 STL -203
  • 5/4.85 STL -1½ -103
  • 4/3.92 STL u8½ -102
  • 3/4.20 SF +140
  • 8/7.27 SF u8 -110
  • 4/5.08 PHI -1½ +127
  • 8/8.00 CIN u8½ +100
  • 3/5.16 ATL +172
  • 3/2.48 ATL +1½ -121
  • 4/4.00 NYM u9 +100
  • 3/3.45 CHW +115
  • 3/1.96 CHW +1½ -153
  • 3/4.02 BAL +134
  • 6/5.71 BAL u8½ -105
  • 9/10.44 MIN +116
  • 3/1.72 MIN +1½ -174
  • 4/2.82 BOS +1½ -142
  • 4/3.64 HOU u8 -110
  • 3/4.80 WAS +160
  • 3/2.29 WAS +1½ -131
  • 4/3.64 KAN u9 -110
  • 4/2.42 ARI +1½ -165
  • 8/7.27 TEX u8½ -110
  • 4/3.64 CLE u8 -110
  • 4/2.33 CHC +1½ -172
  • 4/4.00 TOR u8½ +100
  • 5/8.90 LAA +178
1755087168992.png

randoms...
  • STREAKS: MIL 11, SEA 8, SD 4, (MIA, SF, PIT) -4
  • DOGS ON ML 147-171 46.2% +6.5% ROI L30 DAYS
  • FAVS ON RL 59-62 +7.0% ROI L14 DAYS
  • BEST/WORST STARTERS L365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
    • PETERSON(NYM) 14-3 +37.5% @HOME w/ 3.637
  • HOT/COLD STARTERS L7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
    • KELLER(PIT) 7-1 +83.4% w/3.50 / 1.26 / 4.174
    • LUGI(KAN) 6-2 +56.2% w/4.47 / 1.49 / 4.303
    • WOODRUFF(MIL) 6-0 +71.6% w/2.29 / 0.65 / na
    • GAUSMAN(TOR) 6-2 +50.1% w/2.54 / 0.99 / 3.910
    • GILBERT(SEA) 6-2 +25.8% w/3.56 / 1.08 / 2.530
    • GOMBER(COL) 1-7 -62.7% w/6.08 / 1.55 / 5.473
  • FUN FACTOR ~ 2025 ROCKIES:
  • FADE COL AWAY ON ML: 46-15 +8% ROI
  • FADE COL AWAY ON RL: 35-26 +5.4% ROI
  • COL UNDER AWAY 35-24-2 59.3% 13.6% ROI
173984.jpg
 
Although not a good night, I did avert disaster as the night started 4-11 and was down over 42u going into late games. Made late push, winning 8 of last 10 including Angels completing a sweep where I had them in each game. The Rockies have hurt me over the last couple of weeks, or at least fading the Rox. As much as I play, I know there will be losing nights, but a huge key in my mind is avoiding the disastrous cards, and for that I succeeded last night.

cc920390022667da5d81e46a10e5c61c.gif


AUGUST: [125-111 +55.19u]
LAST: [15-15 -6.13u]

8/14 THU
  • 3/5.01 ATL +167
  • 3/2.40 ATL +1½ -125
  • 4/3.48 SEA o9½ -115
  • 4/4.00 CLE u7½ +100
1755167728885.jpeg​

randoms...
  • STREAKS: MIL 12, SD 5, LAD -4, (SF, PIT) -5
  • DOGS ON ML 158-174 47.6% +9.6% ROI L30 DAYS
  • BEST/WORST STARTERS L365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
    • SUGANO(BAL) 8-3 +34.8% @HOME w/ 4.631
    • SENGA(NYM) 8-1 +33% @HOME w/ 4.384
    • SKUBAL(DET) 11-5 +14.3% AWAY w/ 2.386
    • ELDER(ATL) 2-7 -62.5% AWAY w/ 4.207
  • HOT/COLD STARTERS L7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
    • SUGANO(BAL) 5-2 +51.1% w/5.78 / 1.53 / 4.174
    • BIBEE(CLE) 6-2 +39.3% w/5.95 / 1.37 / 4.102
    • SKUBAL(DET) 5-2 +9.3% w/2.49 / 0.83 / 2.386
    • ELDER(ATL) 2-5 -49.2% w/8.73 / 1.99 / 4.207
    • RODRIGUEZ(ARI) 2-5 -49.7% w/6.19 / 1.87 / 4.184
  • FUN FACTOR ~ 2025 ROCKIES:
    • FADE COL @HOME ON ML: 42-16 +10.2% ROI
    • FADE COL @HOME ON RL: 36-22 +6.6% ROI
1752032252773-png.301457
 
AUGUST: [127-113 +54.6u]
LAST: [2-2 -0.59u]

8/15 FRI
  • 4/4.00 PIT o9 +100
  • 4/3.81 WAS u8 -105
  • 4/6.32 TEX -1½ +158
  • 4/3.64 TOR u7½ -110
  • 7/3.04 HOU -230
  • 5/7.80 CHW +156
  • 3/2.40 CHW +1½ -125
  • 4/4.00 KAN u9 +100
  • 4/5.80 MIA +145
  • 3/3.33 SEA +111
  • 6/7.14 STL +119
  • 4/3.64 STL u9 -110
  • 3/3.39 TAM +113
  • 4/3.70 TAM o8 -108
1755255674562.png

...more plays coming, definite side in LA, but 3 games with no line yet

randoms...
  • STREAKS: MIL 12, SD 5, LAD -4, (SF, PIT) -5
  • DOGS ON ML 162-177 47.8% +10.1% ROI L30 DAYS
  • BEST/WORST STARTERS L365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
    • BASSITT(TOR) 13-4 +41% @HOME w/ 3.756
    • VALDEZ(HOU) 13-4 +25.9% @HOME w/ 3.094
    • GIOLITO(BOS) 6-2 +36.6% @HOME w/ 4.408
    • MANAEA(NYM) 7-2 +29.1% @HOME w/ na
  • HOT/COLD STARTERS L7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
    • MARTINEZ(CIN) 7-1 +78.4% w/4.50 / 1.13 / 4.411
    • CASTILLO(SEA) 6-2 +50.2% w/2.25 / 1.02 / 4.124
    • GIOLITO(BOS) 6-2 +42.4% w/2.96 / 1.11 / 4.408
    • REA(CHC) 6-2 +32.1% w/3.53 / 1.08 / 4.499
    • CIVALE(CHW) 2-6 -45.8% w/4.81 / 1.22 / 4.834
    • DEGROM(TEX) 2-5 -57.6% w/4.72 / 1.10 / 3.294
    • YOUNG(BAL) 1-6 -70.6% w/6.54 / 1.64 / 4.537
    • PALLANTE(STL) 1-6 -73.8% w/6.19 / 1.40 / 3.937
  • FUN FACTOR ~ 2025 ROCKIES:
    • FADE COL @HOME ON ML: 43-16 +10.8% ROI
    • FADE COL @HOME ON RL: 37-22 +7.8% ROI
4c9cc4101e51a466852e3f147c04ab19.jpg
 
AUGUST: [132-125 +18.66u]
LAST: [5-12 -35.94u] 💩

8/16 SAT
  • 4/3.64 PIT o9 -110
  • 4/4.80 CIN +120
  • 4/2.30 ARI -174
  • 6/6.30 COL u11½ +105
  • 4/3.64 LAD u8 -110
  • 4/5.48 TEX +137
  • 4/5.00 BAL +125
  • 4/3.40 BOS u9½ -118
  • 4/3.64 STL u8 -110
  • 4/3.18 SF -126
  • 4/4.00 SF u8 +100

randoms...
  • STREAKS: MIL 13, SF -6
  • DOGS ON ML 166-184 47.4% +9.5% ROI L30 DAYS
  • UNDERS 61-46-5 57% FOR +9% ROI
  • BEST/WORST STARTERS L365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
    • GRAY(STL) 16-3 +44.2% @HOME w/ 2.942
    • SNELL(LAD) 6-0 +56.5% @HOME w/ na
    • VERLANDER(SF) 4-10 -54.2% @HOME w/ 4.714
  • HOT/COLD STARTERS L7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
    • PRIESTER(MIL) 7-0 +87.3% w/3.24 / 1.15 / 3.808
    • HOUSER(TAM) 5-2 +59.6% w/3.30 / 1.37 / 4.409
    • LAYER(TOR) 6-2 +49.6% w/3.40 / 1.11 / 4.056
    • MIZE(DET) 5-2 +14.9% w/4.86 / 1.35 / 4.095
    • ANDERSON(LAA) 2-5 -34% w/5.15 / 1.47 / 5.200
    • BURROWS(PIT) 2-6 -37.5% w/4.82 / 1.21 / 3.945
    • FRIED(NYY) 1-5 -56% w/6.00 / 1.56 / 3.539
    • VERLANDER(SF) 1-7 -70.8% w/4.54 / 1.65 / 4.714
  • FUN FACTOR ~ 2025 ROCKIES:
    • FADE COL @HOME ON ML: 43-17 +9.0% ROI
    • FADE COL @HOME ON RL: 37-23 +6.1% ROI
1755341166908.png
1755341224120.png
 
AUGUST: [134-134 -11.72u]
LAST: [2-9 -30.38u]

After a solid run over 60+ days, the wheels have come off... 📉
1755430985575.png
1755431045047.png
Last 4 days terrible, with totals in particular giving back. Time to reverse this trend and get back on track.

8/17 SUN
  • 4/6.20 WAS +155
  • 6/10.62 PIT +177
  • 5/4.00 PIT +1½ -125
  • 6/5.45 CHC u8 -110
  • 5/6.85 SD +137
  • 3/1.94 SD +1½ -155
  • 6/5.45 LAD u8½ -110
  • 4/4.76 BAL +119
  • 4/4.00 LAA o10 +100
  • 4/1.71 BOS -234
  • 3/2.61 BOS -1½ -115
  • 3/4.29 TAM +143
  • 3/2.00 TAM +1½ -150
  • 8/8.00 SF u7½
  • 4/3.48 NYM u8½ -115
1755431247220.jpeg​

randoms...
  • STREAKS: MIL 14, (DET, ATL) 4, (TEX, STL) -4, SF -7
  • DOGS ON ML 37-43 46.2% +8.1% ROI L7 DAYS
  • UNDERS 58-48-4 54.7% FOR +5.1% ROI L10 DAYS
  • BEST/WORST STARTERS L365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
    • QUINTANA(MIL) 11-4 +52.9% AWAY w/ 4.666
    • KIRBY(SEA) 10-2 +47.9% AWAY w/ 3.211
    • MLODZINSKI(PIT) 0-5 -100% AWAY w/ 3.931
    • MARTIN(CHW) 1-10 +76% AWAY w/ 4.452
    • FEDDE(ATL) 4-13 -55% AWAY w/ 5.347
  • HOT/COLD STARTERS L7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
    • EOVALDI(TEX) 7-0 +80.3% w/1.44 / 0.89 / 3.044
    • BERRIOS(TOR) 7-1 +60.5% w/4.95 / 1.40 / 4.397
    • KIRBY(SEA) 7-1 +46.4% w/2.42 / 0.91 / 3.211
    • QUINTANA(MIL) 5-2 +41.4% w/3.66 / 1.12 / 4.666
    • CROCHET(BOS) 6-1 +33.2% w/3.35 / 1.00 / 2.722
    • FEDDE(ATL) 1-6 -72.7% w/9.31 / 1.90 / 5.347
  • FUN FACTOR ~ 2025 ROCKIES:
    • FADE COL @HOME ON ML: 43-18 +7.5% ROI
    • FADE COL @HOME ON RL: 37-24 +4.6% ROI
01js57356dsmzwwb80a9.jpg
 
AUGUST: [139-144 -37.55u]
LAST: [5-10 -25.85u]

Crazy slide continues, trying to avoid wholesale adjustments, so far...

1755515276743.png​

8/18 MON
  • 4/3.33 CHC -120
  • 4/3.85 LAD o11 -104
  • 3/3.78 HOU +126
  • 3/1.88 HOU +1½ -160
  • 6/5.22 DET u8½ -115
  • 4/4.00 BOS u8½ +100
  • 3/2.86 PIT -105
  • 4/2.08 ATL -192
  • 3/3.00 ATL -1½ +100
  • 4/3.64 ARI u9 -110

randoms...
  • STREAKS: ATL 5, CHW -4, STL -5
  • DOGS ON ML 170-193 46.8% +7.7% ROI L30 DAYS
  • DOGS ON RL 51-30 63% FOR +5.3% ROI L7 DAYS
  • BEST/WORST STARTERS L365 DAYS @SITE w/xFIP
    • RAY(SF) 9-4 +34.5% AWAY w/ 4.011
    • HORTON(CHC) 6-2 +18.5% @HOME w/ 4.301
    • LEITER(TEX) 3-8 -47.7% AWAY w/ 4.957
  • HOT/COLD STARTERS L7 WEEKS w/ERA/WHIP/xFIP
    • ROGERS(BAL) 6-2 +53.9% w/1.37 / 0.82 / 3.622
    • PERALTA(MIL) 6-2 +38.8% w/2.89 / 1.10 / 4.000
    • HORTON(CHC) 5-2 +25.5% w/1.12 / 0.88 / 4.301
    • STRIDER(ATL) 2-5 -52.5% w/5.78 / 1.63 / 3.814
    • FLAHERTY(DET) 2-6 -54.3% w/4.69 / 1.46 / 3.692
  • FUN FACTOR ~ 2025 ROCKIES:
    • FADE COL @HOME ON ML: 43-19 +6.3% ROI
    • FADE COL @HOME ON RL: 37-25 +3.4% ROI
1755515004665.png
1755515156468.jpeg
 
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