August-July Football
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Pretty much a regular
CL 36-27 +9.91
Split today, feel that Arsenal/Barca goes over if its played the exact way more often than not with the chances that were created
Manchester City +120
Atleti -118
Much like Zenit last week Kyiv haven't played a competitive match since December and Man City come in to this game with almost all the regulars rested after Pellegrini played the youth side against Chelsea on the weekend. Away from home City usually play 2 midfielders with Toure which I feel is their best lineup and doesn't rely on him tracking back as much. Kyiv's CB combo is extremely slow, especially Khacheridi, and Aguero/Sterling should have some joy down the left side against him.
Atleti are one of the best teams in Europe and boast the best defensive record in Europe as well but for me this play mostly comes down to PSV missing De Jong to suspension, he leads them in almost every offensive category this year (goals, assists, shots per game, key passes per game) and without him and with Atleti's defensive record I don't expect them to create much. Atleti were a strong away side in the CL so far this year and in La Liga (9 wins in 13 games with 20 goals scored/5 allowed), it may only be 1-0 and they grind it out but I don't see them leaving without the win
Split today, feel that Arsenal/Barca goes over if its played the exact way more often than not with the chances that were created
Manchester City +120
Atleti -118
Much like Zenit last week Kyiv haven't played a competitive match since December and Man City come in to this game with almost all the regulars rested after Pellegrini played the youth side against Chelsea on the weekend. Away from home City usually play 2 midfielders with Toure which I feel is their best lineup and doesn't rely on him tracking back as much. Kyiv's CB combo is extremely slow, especially Khacheridi, and Aguero/Sterling should have some joy down the left side against him.
Atleti are one of the best teams in Europe and boast the best defensive record in Europe as well but for me this play mostly comes down to PSV missing De Jong to suspension, he leads them in almost every offensive category this year (goals, assists, shots per game, key passes per game) and without him and with Atleti's defensive record I don't expect them to create much. Atleti were a strong away side in the CL so far this year and in La Liga (9 wins in 13 games with 20 goals scored/5 allowed), it may only be 1-0 and they grind it out but I don't see them leaving without the win
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Premier League 20-20-2 +0.43
Watford/Bournemouth o2.5 +110
Leicester/Norwich o2.5 -135
Watford/Bournemouth o2.5 +110
Leicester/Norwich o2.5 -135
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Premier League 20-22-2 -1.92
Southampton +165
Everton -115
Chelsea -140
West Brom +450
Sunderland +140
Southampton +165
Everton -115
Chelsea -140
West Brom +450
Sunderland +140
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CL 37-28 +9.93
(Madrid/Roma) Both teams to score in the 1st half +295
It was this or Roma to score in general but that was too pricey for me
I think this game is wide open from the start, Roma know they need at least 2 away goals (and likely more as they cant expect to hold Madrid to a CS) so I think they take their chances early and push up, which is always the danger with Madrid will lead to Bale, Ronaldo, and for this game probabably Jese crushing them on the counter
I think we see a lot of goals here and early
(Madrid/Roma) Both teams to score in the 1st half +295
It was this or Roma to score in general but that was too pricey for me
I think this game is wide open from the start, Roma know they need at least 2 away goals (and likely more as they cant expect to hold Madrid to a CS) so I think they take their chances early and push up, which is always the danger with Madrid will lead to Bale, Ronaldo, and for this game probabably Jese crushing them on the counter
I think we see a lot of goals here and early
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Dzeko and Salah are shaving goals here
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CL 37-29 +8.93
Atleti/PSV u2.5 -109
to me this looks like a 1-0 or 2-0 for Atleti, pointed out a lot of their defensive stats in the post for the first match, but essentially they are the stingiest team in Europe. At home in the CL they have kept a clean sheet 11 of the last 13 times, PSV only allowed 1 goal in their last 4 as well.
It's a tricky scoreline and I don't think the game will really open up until late anyway.
If Atleti score first than PSV will have to push, but it's not as though Madrid can really push hard for a 2nd because they need to focus more on the clean sheet. Whereas is PSV somehow score first they full on park the bus, knowing they have ___ amount of time just to not concede two. I think it's a very passive game with very few chances, wouldn't be surprised if a set piece was the difference.
Man City/Kyiv o2.75 -115
This game should be wide open, Kyiv need at least 2 to go through so they have to push early, they have played since the last CL game so should have worn off some rust and City just cant defend in Europe, they have allowed goals in every home CL game the last 3 seasons. But on the other hand when Kyiv push up I expect Aguero/Sterling to punish them and it could be a big win. Back and forth attacking just like leg 1 and I am thinking we see a 3-1 or 3-2 type final
Atleti/PSV u2.5 -109
to me this looks like a 1-0 or 2-0 for Atleti, pointed out a lot of their defensive stats in the post for the first match, but essentially they are the stingiest team in Europe. At home in the CL they have kept a clean sheet 11 of the last 13 times, PSV only allowed 1 goal in their last 4 as well.
It's a tricky scoreline and I don't think the game will really open up until late anyway.
If Atleti score first than PSV will have to push, but it's not as though Madrid can really push hard for a 2nd because they need to focus more on the clean sheet. Whereas is PSV somehow score first they full on park the bus, knowing they have ___ amount of time just to not concede two. I think it's a very passive game with very few chances, wouldn't be surprised if a set piece was the difference.
Man City/Kyiv o2.75 -115
This game should be wide open, Kyiv need at least 2 to go through so they have to push early, they have played since the last CL game so should have worn off some rust and City just cant defend in Europe, they have allowed goals in every home CL game the last 3 seasons. But on the other hand when Kyiv push up I expect Aguero/Sterling to punish them and it could be a big win. Back and forth attacking just like leg 1 and I am thinking we see a 3-1 or 3-2 type final
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City/Kyiv worked it out before hand that neither was going to show up, that was fun
CL 38-30 +8.78
Arsenal +2 -114
Juve +1.5 -120
Don't see either team getting blown out badly here, Bayern will likely progress but they are still a bit hurt on the backline with no Boateng so they have to be careful, leg 1 ended 2-2 but both sides could have had a few more. Juve won't be as wide open without Dybala but they can still create a bunch of chances if its open. Juve expected to shift to 4 at the back here which should limit the damage Robben can do against the left side, he had the whole flank to himself last time.
Arsenal line just has value, Barca may win this by 3 but I don't see them doing it often. Arsenal can score on this side and almost did a few times in leg 1, so I expect them on the scoresheet at least once, which means Barca would need 4? or 5 goals if Arsenal score twice.
CL 38-30 +8.78
Arsenal +2 -114
Juve +1.5 -120
Don't see either team getting blown out badly here, Bayern will likely progress but they are still a bit hurt on the backline with no Boateng so they have to be careful, leg 1 ended 2-2 but both sides could have had a few more. Juve won't be as wide open without Dybala but they can still create a bunch of chances if its open. Juve expected to shift to 4 at the back here which should limit the damage Robben can do against the left side, he had the whole flank to himself last time.
Arsenal line just has value, Barca may win this by 3 but I don't see them doing it often. Arsenal can score on this side and almost did a few times in leg 1, so I expect them on the scoresheet at least once, which means Barca would need 4? or 5 goals if Arsenal score twice.
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Premier League 22-25-2 -2.92
Everton/Arsenal o2.5 -140
West Brom +125
Everton/Arsenal is the early game which causes a bit of hesitation but I expect this to hit 3 or 4 easy. Everton score almost 2 and allow almost 2 per game at home (29/26 in 15 games). Arsenal allow double the goals away from home that they do at home, and they score almost 2 a game on the road as well (27 in 15) should provide plenty of chances both ways
Norwich have lost 11 of 15 away from home, and don't score at all either with just 12 goals. West Brom are on a nice little run here lately, only 1 loss in their last 7 and 2 losses in 2016. Berahino has had his attitude turned around, rumors are he has told if he finishes the season strong he will get his move in the summer, and he adds some speed to their attack. I think they can put a few goals past that this norwich back line and the canaries just wont have the firepower to match it
Everton/Arsenal o2.5 -140
West Brom +125
Everton/Arsenal is the early game which causes a bit of hesitation but I expect this to hit 3 or 4 easy. Everton score almost 2 and allow almost 2 per game at home (29/26 in 15 games). Arsenal allow double the goals away from home that they do at home, and they score almost 2 a game on the road as well (27 in 15) should provide plenty of chances both ways
Norwich have lost 11 of 15 away from home, and don't score at all either with just 12 goals. West Brom are on a nice little run here lately, only 1 loss in their last 7 and 2 losses in 2016. Berahino has had his attitude turned around, rumors are he has told if he finishes the season strong he will get his move in the summer, and he adds some speed to their attack. I think they can put a few goals past that this norwich back line and the canaries just wont have the firepower to match it
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CL 39-3-1 +9.78
Man City +437
Man City +0.5 +126
Madrid -149
Talent gap too much for me in Madrid/Wolfsburg here, and especially in Madrids front 3 against the wolfsburg back line and central midfield who are on the slower side making them one of the worst teams against the counter going up against Bale and Ronaldo, missing Naldo hurts Wolfsburg as well.
I also don't see any threat of a hangover from the clasico win on the weekend, all that did was put them 7 points back with 7 to play, they aren't winning La Liga, this is their last shot at big silverware this season and they know it.
With all they have going forward I see Madrid scoring at least 2 and don't see Wolfsburg matching that, because if they push up than they get crushed on the counter and that Madrid 2 could turn in to a more crooked number
Man City value is just too high, especially with KDB back. They have been at their best with Aguero/Silva/KDB together and I don't think there are many more dangerous attacking threesome's in Europe than those 3. Which says to me that Man City can score. No Yaya gives them more balance in midfield as the two brazillians will sit in front of the back four and just get the ball up to the attacking group, I really like the matchup here especially with Aguero sitting on Luiz' shoulder
PSG are a great team and always dangerous, and the odds are what they are, they are expected to win here, but I don't think they should be this favored over this team. City could give them a shocker
Man City +437
Man City +0.5 +126
Madrid -149
Talent gap too much for me in Madrid/Wolfsburg here, and especially in Madrids front 3 against the wolfsburg back line and central midfield who are on the slower side making them one of the worst teams against the counter going up against Bale and Ronaldo, missing Naldo hurts Wolfsburg as well.
I also don't see any threat of a hangover from the clasico win on the weekend, all that did was put them 7 points back with 7 to play, they aren't winning La Liga, this is their last shot at big silverware this season and they know it.
With all they have going forward I see Madrid scoring at least 2 and don't see Wolfsburg matching that, because if they push up than they get crushed on the counter and that Madrid 2 could turn in to a more crooked number
Man City value is just too high, especially with KDB back. They have been at their best with Aguero/Silva/KDB together and I don't think there are many more dangerous attacking threesome's in Europe than those 3. Which says to me that Man City can score. No Yaya gives them more balance in midfield as the two brazillians will sit in front of the back four and just get the ball up to the attacking group, I really like the matchup here especially with Aguero sitting on Luiz' shoulder
PSG are a great team and always dangerous, and the odds are what they are, they are expected to win here, but I don't think they should be this favored over this team. City could give them a shocker
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
GL hope so but going to be on PSG team total, think that's my favorite angle, likely over for the game. No Hart or Kompany, PSG not scoring 3 would surprise me. Only concern is if they get up 2-0 and play not to concede the away goal I guess.
Wouldn't have thought much about Clasico but those guys at the end of that game acted like they just won the world. Definitely a concern but Wolfsburg been shit lately too...not confident either way in that one.
Wouldn't have thought much about Clasico but those guys at the end of that game acted like they just won the world. Definitely a concern but Wolfsburg been shit lately too...not confident either way in that one.
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Premier League 22-27-2 -5.17
Arsenal +101
Southampton/Newcastle o2.5 -101
Watford/Everton o2.5 +104
Palace/Norwich draw +249
Arsenal +101
Southampton/Newcastle o2.5 -101
Watford/Everton o2.5 +104
Palace/Norwich draw +249
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CL 40-33-1 +8.55
Madrid to advance -112
Man City to advance -125
Man City +196
similar thoughts last week, was off on Madrid but even then it was not them getting thoroughly beat by Wolfsburg, they had 60% of the ball, completed 90% of their passes and attempted double the germans shots
Bale, Benzema, Kroos, Modric, and Ramos were all rested on the weekend and should come in fresh, I expect they get a few goals in the first half and finish with 3 or 4
Man City proved they could score on PSG last week and I dont expect that changes at home KDB/Silva/Kun work incredibly well together and the Parisians showed they struggle against a top level attack which because of their league they only see a few times a year. The 2-2 first leg plays in to City's hands as well, PSG are forced to push for 2 goals as they can't expect to hold City to a clean sheet at the Etihad, something like 2-2 wouldnt surprise me with extra time coming as I expect a lot of goals, but the odds on City are too high again and if they can avoid the mental mistakes on the backline they should take it, 3-2 City
Madrid to advance -112
Man City to advance -125
Man City +196
similar thoughts last week, was off on Madrid but even then it was not them getting thoroughly beat by Wolfsburg, they had 60% of the ball, completed 90% of their passes and attempted double the germans shots
Bale, Benzema, Kroos, Modric, and Ramos were all rested on the weekend and should come in fresh, I expect they get a few goals in the first half and finish with 3 or 4
Man City proved they could score on PSG last week and I dont expect that changes at home KDB/Silva/Kun work incredibly well together and the Parisians showed they struggle against a top level attack which because of their league they only see a few times a year. The 2-2 first leg plays in to City's hands as well, PSG are forced to push for 2 goals as they can't expect to hold City to a clean sheet at the Etihad, something like 2-2 wouldnt surprise me with extra time coming as I expect a lot of goals, but the odds on City are too high again and if they can avoid the mental mistakes on the backline they should take it, 3-2 City
Cappingchubster11
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Appreciate the picks teeed, glad I tailed. Was a great day for Champions.
-Chub
-Chub
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thanks CC
CL 43-33-1 +12.51
Bayern/Benfica o2.5 +105
Atleti/Barca o2.5 +104
Both these games have similar reasonings, I like the over when their is a team chasing a goal against an offensive powerhouse with questionable backline
Benfica missing Jonas up front hurts a lot but they need to score so won't be able to defend like they did in the 1st leg unless they get a late 1-0 lead, which I don't expect, I think Bayern have enough to get a 1st half goal and then just chase the counter like they did against Juve last round. But with their back 4 still injured I can't back them to win here as I think if they get pushed against by Benfica I think they can concede a few, especially on set pieces and crosses (back 4 is tiny with no boateng or badstuber and Mitroglou is great in the air)
CL 43-33-1 +12.51
Bayern/Benfica o2.5 +105
Atleti/Barca o2.5 +104
Both these games have similar reasonings, I like the over when their is a team chasing a goal against an offensive powerhouse with questionable backline
Benfica missing Jonas up front hurts a lot but they need to score so won't be able to defend like they did in the 1st leg unless they get a late 1-0 lead, which I don't expect, I think Bayern have enough to get a 1st half goal and then just chase the counter like they did against Juve last round. But with their back 4 still injured I can't back them to win here as I think if they get pushed against by Benfica I think they can concede a few, especially on set pieces and crosses (back 4 is tiny with no boateng or badstuber and Mitroglou is great in the air)
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CL 44-34-1 +12.56
Madrid/City o2.5 -135
Madrid/City o2.5 -135
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