2daBank
Voice of Reason
Last I looked I didn’t have that option. My book had u2 with juice to the over. Certainly seems like it gonna be a low scoring affair.
August Discussion Thread
- Thread starter GWarner27
- Start date
Last I looked I didn’t have that option. My book had u2 with juice to the over. Certainly seems like it gonna be a low scoring affair.
GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
50% chance they get the penalty today especially after they didn't call one yesterday
survive&advance
Nothing but net MFer!
Disappointing 1h from atleti. Not feeling so confident now
GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
understand that, not so sure i want to back RBL vs PSG who may have just lucked into the final
GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
my allegiance to La Liga because it looked to be the best league in europe to me after the restart may have been way off since the teams at the bottom may not have been good, instead the top teams may have been bad
braves
Pretty much a regular
wait, you think Atlanta was the right side in that PSG game.
They kicked the shit out of PSG for 90 minutes, they had no interest in playing
PSG rightful deserved winners in that one , and would have been over much sooner if PSG could have finished. An in form Neymar has a hat trick in that one
xG Atalanta 0.45-3.14 Paris SG
They kicked the shit out of PSG for 90 minutes, they had no interest in playing
PSG rightful deserved winners in that one , and would have been over much sooner if PSG could have finished. An in form Neymar has a hat trick in that one
xG Atalanta 0.45-3.14 Paris SG
GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
+0.5 was up 1-0 until the 90' and that first breach was a terrible goal. Neymar missed one easy one early, though that was part of my handicap that they would be very rusty and it would affect their finishing. Mbappe made an impact against tired legs, but he wasn't great until the levee was broken and slid that pass across for my personal backbreaker in the 95'
xG is the shittiest stat ever, so piss off with that in boldface
braves
Pretty much a regular
It was a tough beat for sure, that happens a lot in this sport.
But PSG deserved winners in this one mate .
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Neymar def missed a few he usually buries. If anyone got screwed it was me pushing the over!! Lmao
2daBank
Voice of Reason
You think Bayern handles Barcelona in 90 minutes?
GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
very surprised by RBL going through, searched high and low for an Atletico play yesterday and I am very happy i did not find one. I guess I should not have been surprised by Simeone's gameplan, but RBL played far better than I expected thanks a lot to said gameplan. They could have withered after the Felix penalty, but they did not and that's why they got the fortunate deflection that won them the game (though i don't think it was on target)
Onto today, another game where I will avoid the favorite though I picked Bayern to win the title.
Barca lost the xG battle to vaunted Napoli, yet prevailed 3-1 on the actual scoreboard. It was surprising to see Setien opt to defend instead of possessing the ball, which I think was his choice since Barca is one of the best sides historically in its ability to get the ball and hold onto it. Napoli certainly played a role in that as they used a more aggressive gameplan than expected, but it definitely played a role in falling behind 3-0. Meanwhile, Bayern wasn't even offered a to advance line since they were so far ahead of injured Chelsea.
I had hoped the public love for Barca thanks to Messi would have this one open pk, then reconsidered and expected something in the -0.25 to -0.5 range. It is a few hours before kickoff and the line has moved to 1/2 and that is probably the top end of the range. As per my mantra not to lay any portion of a goal, that leaves only Barca as my option and I have been very down on the side since the restart.
I kicked myself for not playing Sevilla against the Culers, but did very well on my Barca fade after that with consecutive victories on Bilbao, Celta Vigo and Atleti. I then lost on Villarreal, who did not sit back and defend like the others. I think there is value in seeing this because they made the mistake of not respecting Barca, thus allowing four goals and proving that the aged blaugrana could still carve up teams if given space. I foolishly held off relegation-risked Espanyol in the next match, another Barca ATS loss, before hopping back on Valladolid who gave up an early goal but then had Barcelona fighting for its life to retain the three points and stay in the race with Real Madrid. This improved my record to 4-1 ATS and left Barca 1-6 ATS since the two opening covers against eventual relegation teams after the restart (4-0 Mallorca, 2-0 Leganes). Barca then needed a victory at home vs Osasuna to prevent a Real Madrid celebration prior to the final matchday, but lost to a 10-man side after trailing for much of the game before equalizing. So my Barca fade went 5-1 and the team covered only 1 of 8 matches in that stretch. As big favorites in every match besides Sevilla (where they still gave half a goal), Barca after the restart recorded 7 victories, 3 draws and one loss when including the final matchday Alaves 5-0 walkover.
Earning 24 points from 11 matches normally wouldn't be too bad to see, but it was considering they were favored by more than a goal in nearly every match and finished runner-up. The 7-3-1 record included two victories over relegated teams, the loss was against 10th-placed Osasuna. The remaining five victories included only Villarreal from the European places, the three draws included two UCL qualifiers and Celta Vigo who was not safe on the final matchday. Going through this exercise was initially meant to model their performance, but Barca is dogged in this one unlike any of those matches so I will stop here.
Bayern will want to possess the ball since they have about as strong of an offense as exists in Europe right now. The alarm bells start to go off as I am reminded by the Villarreal game, though the Bayern defense is far better than what Villarreal throws out there. There are questions about Boateng's fitness, who would be replaced by slow-footed Sule in all likelihood if he has to leave. Five substitutions should give Hansi Flick some latitude to start Boateng and then take him off early since the additional subs offer some safety, but we will see based on the starting lineup what he does. Alongside is Alaba who is about as versatile as it gets, but he is the best solution for Bayern at CB and will remain there. Davies as the left wingback has all the pace to trouble Barca, but he may be out of position attacking and could be exploited in the right situation. Kimmich at RB has plenty of offensive game, as seen when he clinched the Bundesliga title with his chip over Burki at Dortmund a couple months ago. He seems like more of a M playing RB, so there may be some concern there as well.
Bayern with offensive players all over the pitch speaks to their ability to go forward, but I don't want to undersell their defense. Thiago's return has provided more possession in the midfield, which should assist the defense since you push the opponent back when you have the ball. With that said, the goal scoring prowess has overshadowed the defense and it hides imperfections. Since the re-start, Bayern has five clean sheets in 12 competitive matches. The other seven saw two goals allowed thrice and a single goal four times. That's 10 goals allowed in 12 matches, which suggest Barca has a relatively good chance of getting on the board. Lionel Messi in the team should close to guarantee that especially when considering the amount of penalties being called this season, which points to Bayern needing two to cover the current spread.
Lewandowski is penciled in for a goal each time he steps on the pitch, so Bayern is nearly half-way there considering that. Barca's team is aging and that can certainly be seen with Pique who is not the silencer he used to be. He's not bad, and Lenglet's youth can help, but Ter Stegen does not look as formidable without the strong spine. Alba is getting older, but doesn't seem to have lost a step. At LB, he's a much bigger help to the defense than Semedo on the right side, who seems to be more of the offensive type due to his speed. Davies vs Semedo is going to be a race, but I wouldn't like my odds in the matchup if I was Barca...
Setien surely isn't as dense as he seems, but only using two substitutes vs Napoli with an older team when he had 5 available and a two-goal lead is questionable at best. We'll see from the lineup today, but you gotta think there is an emphasis on helping Semedo deal with Davies. Sergi Roberto and Rakitic seem like defensive midfielders, though de Jong's return last match added some much-needed youth and an offensive threat that Barca was missing while he was out injured. I've been most threatened during my Barca fade by the youth team, Fati and Puig, but they did not see the field vs Napoli. It may be that they were not trusted to hold a lead, Barca entered with an away goals advantage, but they've done far more since the restart than anybody but Messi and Suarez. Today's lineup may see them, but I doubt it after not even getting on the pitch vs Napoli, but Dembele is also rumored to be in the team. Can't see him starting and doubt he comes on for more than a few minutes late, but that adds to the threat.
Catching half a goal with Messi is tempting, but besides Suarez and maybe a quick burst of brilliance from Griezmann I don't see from where else the offense will come. Setien is not trustworthy, his lineup likely remains the same with a defensive midfield featuring Sergi Roberto and Rakitic again then a bit of balance with de Jong to help the others. Griezmann feels out of place and then the right side (Semedo and Pique) seems like a target for Bayern. Not feeling good enough about this team with a zero at manager hanging around with Bayern, though they certainly can do it
Onto today, another game where I will avoid the favorite though I picked Bayern to win the title.
Barca lost the xG battle to vaunted Napoli, yet prevailed 3-1 on the actual scoreboard. It was surprising to see Setien opt to defend instead of possessing the ball, which I think was his choice since Barca is one of the best sides historically in its ability to get the ball and hold onto it. Napoli certainly played a role in that as they used a more aggressive gameplan than expected, but it definitely played a role in falling behind 3-0. Meanwhile, Bayern wasn't even offered a to advance line since they were so far ahead of injured Chelsea.
I had hoped the public love for Barca thanks to Messi would have this one open pk, then reconsidered and expected something in the -0.25 to -0.5 range. It is a few hours before kickoff and the line has moved to 1/2 and that is probably the top end of the range. As per my mantra not to lay any portion of a goal, that leaves only Barca as my option and I have been very down on the side since the restart.
I kicked myself for not playing Sevilla against the Culers, but did very well on my Barca fade after that with consecutive victories on Bilbao, Celta Vigo and Atleti. I then lost on Villarreal, who did not sit back and defend like the others. I think there is value in seeing this because they made the mistake of not respecting Barca, thus allowing four goals and proving that the aged blaugrana could still carve up teams if given space. I foolishly held off relegation-risked Espanyol in the next match, another Barca ATS loss, before hopping back on Valladolid who gave up an early goal but then had Barcelona fighting for its life to retain the three points and stay in the race with Real Madrid. This improved my record to 4-1 ATS and left Barca 1-6 ATS since the two opening covers against eventual relegation teams after the restart (4-0 Mallorca, 2-0 Leganes). Barca then needed a victory at home vs Osasuna to prevent a Real Madrid celebration prior to the final matchday, but lost to a 10-man side after trailing for much of the game before equalizing. So my Barca fade went 5-1 and the team covered only 1 of 8 matches in that stretch. As big favorites in every match besides Sevilla (where they still gave half a goal), Barca after the restart recorded 7 victories, 3 draws and one loss when including the final matchday Alaves 5-0 walkover.
Earning 24 points from 11 matches normally wouldn't be too bad to see, but it was considering they were favored by more than a goal in nearly every match and finished runner-up. The 7-3-1 record included two victories over relegated teams, the loss was against 10th-placed Osasuna. The remaining five victories included only Villarreal from the European places, the three draws included two UCL qualifiers and Celta Vigo who was not safe on the final matchday. Going through this exercise was initially meant to model their performance, but Barca is dogged in this one unlike any of those matches so I will stop here.
Bayern will want to possess the ball since they have about as strong of an offense as exists in Europe right now. The alarm bells start to go off as I am reminded by the Villarreal game, though the Bayern defense is far better than what Villarreal throws out there. There are questions about Boateng's fitness, who would be replaced by slow-footed Sule in all likelihood if he has to leave. Five substitutions should give Hansi Flick some latitude to start Boateng and then take him off early since the additional subs offer some safety, but we will see based on the starting lineup what he does. Alongside is Alaba who is about as versatile as it gets, but he is the best solution for Bayern at CB and will remain there. Davies as the left wingback has all the pace to trouble Barca, but he may be out of position attacking and could be exploited in the right situation. Kimmich at RB has plenty of offensive game, as seen when he clinched the Bundesliga title with his chip over Burki at Dortmund a couple months ago. He seems like more of a M playing RB, so there may be some concern there as well.
Bayern with offensive players all over the pitch speaks to their ability to go forward, but I don't want to undersell their defense. Thiago's return has provided more possession in the midfield, which should assist the defense since you push the opponent back when you have the ball. With that said, the goal scoring prowess has overshadowed the defense and it hides imperfections. Since the re-start, Bayern has five clean sheets in 12 competitive matches. The other seven saw two goals allowed thrice and a single goal four times. That's 10 goals allowed in 12 matches, which suggest Barca has a relatively good chance of getting on the board. Lionel Messi in the team should close to guarantee that especially when considering the amount of penalties being called this season, which points to Bayern needing two to cover the current spread.
Lewandowski is penciled in for a goal each time he steps on the pitch, so Bayern is nearly half-way there considering that. Barca's team is aging and that can certainly be seen with Pique who is not the silencer he used to be. He's not bad, and Lenglet's youth can help, but Ter Stegen does not look as formidable without the strong spine. Alba is getting older, but doesn't seem to have lost a step. At LB, he's a much bigger help to the defense than Semedo on the right side, who seems to be more of the offensive type due to his speed. Davies vs Semedo is going to be a race, but I wouldn't like my odds in the matchup if I was Barca...
Setien surely isn't as dense as he seems, but only using two substitutes vs Napoli with an older team when he had 5 available and a two-goal lead is questionable at best. We'll see from the lineup today, but you gotta think there is an emphasis on helping Semedo deal with Davies. Sergi Roberto and Rakitic seem like defensive midfielders, though de Jong's return last match added some much-needed youth and an offensive threat that Barca was missing while he was out injured. I've been most threatened during my Barca fade by the youth team, Fati and Puig, but they did not see the field vs Napoli. It may be that they were not trusted to hold a lead, Barca entered with an away goals advantage, but they've done far more since the restart than anybody but Messi and Suarez. Today's lineup may see them, but I doubt it after not even getting on the pitch vs Napoli, but Dembele is also rumored to be in the team. Can't see him starting and doubt he comes on for more than a few minutes late, but that adds to the threat.
Catching half a goal with Messi is tempting, but besides Suarez and maybe a quick burst of brilliance from Griezmann I don't see from where else the offense will come. Setien is not trustworthy, his lineup likely remains the same with a defensive midfield featuring Sergi Roberto and Rakitic again then a bit of balance with de Jong to help the others. Griezmann feels out of place and then the right side (Semedo and Pique) seems like a target for Bayern. Not feeling good enough about this team with a zero at manager hanging around with Bayern, though they certainly can do it
GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
1-0 in the 90' and you're complaining about a push on o3 lol smh
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Just a joke bud. You gotta relax a little
. That one of the very few times extra time helped me. Usually it fucks me.
GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
deserved i'm not sure, but agreed they were clearly better once Mbappe came on and the tired legs really showed up. Didn't expect Atalanta to survive once they conceded, but not making extra time was brutal.
Was hoping Neymar was offside on either of the goals, but that second one was pretty (and not complete luck on two mis-kicks and a deflection) at least
GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
Just a joke bud. You gotta relax a little
i realize, the emoji guy didn't pop up so i just went with lol
GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
sad i didn't get to win any more money against Barca, but feel for the club a bit after that disaster ayer
Onto today, I guess I'm closest to being a Lyon fan simply because I saw a Champions League knockout game in 2019 and at halftime they did a feature on the awesome food culture there. It was on my list when I traveled Europe last summer and fit nicely into a family weekend in the Swiss Alps so i went and bought an OL shirt off the sale rack since I didn't want a Hyundai logoed jersey.
OL was off to a bad start in Ligue 1 play when the season was canceled, and this is the only hope for OL to play in Europe next year. They've done some cost cutting and I think will be okay financially after recently selling Fekir and Mendy, but this match means a lot more than just a title.
Man City enters the biggest favorite in the semis and there is some pressure that goes with that as they try to avenge their first season without an EPL title in recent memory. I wrote the following my European Summer preview
Since this was written, Garcia looks like he's moving back to Spain (Barcelona) and did not start vs Real Madrid yet is in there today next to Laporte. Not sure why Pep didn't opt for Fernandinho, but he's on the right side in the midfield. This looks to be a defensive choice from Pep, which is surprising as everybody expect OL to sit back and defend hoping for extra time and then penalties.
The MCFC frontline is what will decide this one. OL has the defensive shape and bodies, but the speed MCFC possesses can not be duplicated. Fortunately OL has some experience with this from last year's UCL where they took four points in the group stages, but it's been a while since they saw this speed at the very least. I fear Sterling draws a penalty and that de Bruyne converts a free kick from just outside the box, but even if both of those things happen we're still pushing at the current +2
MCFC has thrashed plenty of teams, but not in this format and not against a team fighting for its European life. I don't foresee OL leaving its defensive shape until they are forced to do so, which will require some top-class finishing from MCFC and we'll see if they do it
Onto today, I guess I'm closest to being a Lyon fan simply because I saw a Champions League knockout game in 2019 and at halftime they did a feature on the awesome food culture there. It was on my list when I traveled Europe last summer and fit nicely into a family weekend in the Swiss Alps so i went and bought an OL shirt off the sale rack since I didn't want a Hyundai logoed jersey.
OL was off to a bad start in Ligue 1 play when the season was canceled, and this is the only hope for OL to play in Europe next year. They've done some cost cutting and I think will be okay financially after recently selling Fekir and Mendy, but this match means a lot more than just a title.
Man City enters the biggest favorite in the semis and there is some pressure that goes with that as they try to avenge their first season without an EPL title in recent memory. I wrote the following my European Summer preview
Since this was written, Garcia looks like he's moving back to Spain (Barcelona) and did not start vs Real Madrid yet is in there today next to Laporte. Not sure why Pep didn't opt for Fernandinho, but he's on the right side in the midfield. This looks to be a defensive choice from Pep, which is surprising as everybody expect OL to sit back and defend hoping for extra time and then penalties.
The MCFC frontline is what will decide this one. OL has the defensive shape and bodies, but the speed MCFC possesses can not be duplicated. Fortunately OL has some experience with this from last year's UCL where they took four points in the group stages, but it's been a while since they saw this speed at the very least. I fear Sterling draws a penalty and that de Bruyne converts a free kick from just outside the box, but even if both of those things happen we're still pushing at the current +2
MCFC has thrashed plenty of teams, but not in this format and not against a team fighting for its European life. I don't foresee OL leaving its defensive shape until they are forced to do so, which will require some top-class finishing from MCFC and we'll see if they do it
GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
cost myself some money, but felt very fortunate to survive that initial tidal wave to open the 2H. Bono was awesome, Sevilla tried to calmly pass the ball out of every tough situation and on another day it could have cost them. Feel like they will be in big trouble next year against the MCFC or Liverpool high press if that happens to be the UCL draw, I guess they've got a 6/8 chance they avoid them...
As for tomorrow, I watched Shakhtar Donesk against Wolfsburg as that tie seemed to be up in the air and I felt like I had a good read on Wolfsburg after watching so much Bundesliga. I was surprised to see Shak push forward the entire match, even more so due to the 2-1 road victory they achieved before the lockdown. Wolfsburg was a defensive side who really struggled to score in DFL play besides set pieces, but they were no match for Shak. Also watched the Basel match, which I turned after Shak asserted themselves and took a 3-0 lead. This will certainly be a step up in competition, so let's see if they're ready for it...
They reached Wolfsburg in the Round of 16 by getting through Benfica winning the first leg at home 2-1 and drawing the return 3-3. Shak was a Champions League entrant, who got in via finishing 3rd in a group with Atalanta and Man City. Can't imagine many people thought they would emerge from that group, but maybe Atalanta wasn't as obvious to the soccer world as they are now. They did not have to qualify to make this group, likely as Ukrainian champions, but finished third by a point above Dinamo Zagreb.
Blues just won so i'll resume this in the morning
As for tomorrow, I watched Shakhtar Donesk against Wolfsburg as that tie seemed to be up in the air and I felt like I had a good read on Wolfsburg after watching so much Bundesliga. I was surprised to see Shak push forward the entire match, even more so due to the 2-1 road victory they achieved before the lockdown. Wolfsburg was a defensive side who really struggled to score in DFL play besides set pieces, but they were no match for Shak. Also watched the Basel match, which I turned after Shak asserted themselves and took a 3-0 lead. This will certainly be a step up in competition, so let's see if they're ready for it...
They reached Wolfsburg in the Round of 16 by getting through Benfica winning the first leg at home 2-1 and drawing the return 3-3. Shak was a Champions League entrant, who got in via finishing 3rd in a group with Atalanta and Man City. Can't imagine many people thought they would emerge from that group, but maybe Atalanta wasn't as obvious to the soccer world as they are now. They did not have to qualify to make this group, likely as Ukrainian champions, but finished third by a point above Dinamo Zagreb.
Blues just won so i'll resume this in the morning
GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
Line moved to the full +1 overnight, something I was really hoping for as that full goal of insurance is very important.
Inter is one of the bigger spenders in the world, which puts them in a class above nearly anybody Shakhtar played this season besides Man City. Shak's UCL group stage started with a 0-3 home loss to MCFC, then they won 2-1 @Atalanta and drew Zagreb at home 2-2. Another draw against Zagreb, this time 3-3, put them at 5 points through four group games and tied with Zagreb for 2nd behind MCFC while Atalanta only had a single point from drawing their 4th match with MCFC. Shak then drew MCFC to climb to 2nd place on 6 points after Atalanta beat Zagreb. Shak had the R16 in its hands, but lost the final group stage match 3-0 to Atalanta at home who leapfrogged them to 2nd place with 7 points.
That must have been brutal for Shak, but the team responded when pushed to the Europa League getting through Benfica who finished third in their own hotly-contested UCL group. The same story for Inter who finished 3rd in its UCL group behind Barca and Dortmund, but I think there's less value in checking their results versus competition since they play in a much better league.
Upon further Shak review, they split with Atalanta and only took a single point from MCFC in the second match. MCFC did seem to play its full lineup in that one as it clinched the group with the draw in that match, but the losses in group play were not competitive. That hurts the idea of playing +1 as insurance since a lopsided game against a bigger club like Inter probably will end in a multi-goal loss. Certainly a small sample size, but that's part of the problem with a small-time club stepping up into European competitions.
Inter did not advance past the UCL group stage either, a 1-1 draw with Praha was not a good start. They lost to Barca 2-1, beat Dortmund 2-0 then lost the return game at Dortmund. Sitting on four points after four group stage games with two other giants was not a good place to be and they were victorious on the road in Prague, but ended on 7 points losing to Barca at home in the final while Dortmund beat Prague at home to clinch the runner-up position. Continuing on the past results angle, Inter drew 1-1 at home before the New Year vs Atalanta before winning handily in the Serie A finale on August 1.
In terms of desire, both want the trophy but both should be qualified for Champions League next year as Shak won Ukraine again with a very similar point total to 2018-19 and Inter was Serie A runner-up. Shak won the Europa League in 2009 and were eliminated in the 2016 semifinal by Sevilla, so this isn't as special of a season as some may have expected (including myself). Inter won the Champions League in 2010, but I do not see a Europa League championship in their trophy case. Doubt that means a lot as many see this competition as the loser's Cup, but after all the debate about whether Manchester United cared or not I think it's clear these teams are putting their best squads out there.
In terms of X's and O's, Shak wants to push forward with its Brazilian-Ukrainian medley of players. Inter has the attacking talent to make good defenses pay, which I'm not sure Shak qualifies as a good defense to be included in that. Inter averaged above 2 goals per Serie A match and allowed just under 1, then 1.67 GF in the UCL group stage versus 1.5 allowed. Shak averaged above 1 GF in its UCL group, but allowed more than 2 per match. The total of 3 seems like a sensible number considering it looks like there will be goals in this match, though it's probably hanging 3 with juice to the under since it's a semifinal.
So, Shak is going to try and score goals, which makes that goal of insurance not as comfortable as it appears they will be conceding tonight barring an unforeseen defensive performance. An early Shak goal also does not indicate they will hang back and defend as evidenced by the push forward against Wolfsburg with a goal advantage that also included an away goal.
Inter should have success with Lukaku up front as they did against Leverkusen. He is a big boy and knows how to use his size to his advantage while Lautauro Martinez is a great running mate thanks to being a completely different player relying on speed rather than bulk. Conte utilized a 3-5-2 vs Leverkusen who wants to possess the ball to try and limit that desire, which clearly worked. Inter jumped ahead 2-0 and then hung on for 75' or so after Haivertz pulled one back to make it 2-1, which would be a satisfactory result here if I grab +1. Leverkusen has some defensive flaws including the high-line they play no matter the opponent, but I was interested to see Inter play that same formation against defensive-minded and physical Getafe.
Conte must like to fill the middle of the park more than he did in Serie A play since he had used 4-4-2 and 3-4-1-2 formations when I was paying attention, but that strategy may work here as well to try and reduce the opportunity for Shak to push forward. It appears Shak manager Castro will be doing it based on what he's shown so far, though he may see success if he can get players past the midfield and into the back-3. Godin is aged 34, de Vrij and Skriniar/Bastoni are not the most fleet of foot either.
So that may mean Conte plays that middle-5 a bit deeper to support his slower defenders, which could reduce some of the pressure on the Shak defense. It'll be much needed, we'll see how it works but I can't resist +1 and am still thinking it over
Inter is one of the bigger spenders in the world, which puts them in a class above nearly anybody Shakhtar played this season besides Man City. Shak's UCL group stage started with a 0-3 home loss to MCFC, then they won 2-1 @Atalanta and drew Zagreb at home 2-2. Another draw against Zagreb, this time 3-3, put them at 5 points through four group games and tied with Zagreb for 2nd behind MCFC while Atalanta only had a single point from drawing their 4th match with MCFC. Shak then drew MCFC to climb to 2nd place on 6 points after Atalanta beat Zagreb. Shak had the R16 in its hands, but lost the final group stage match 3-0 to Atalanta at home who leapfrogged them to 2nd place with 7 points.
That must have been brutal for Shak, but the team responded when pushed to the Europa League getting through Benfica who finished third in their own hotly-contested UCL group. The same story for Inter who finished 3rd in its UCL group behind Barca and Dortmund, but I think there's less value in checking their results versus competition since they play in a much better league.
Upon further Shak review, they split with Atalanta and only took a single point from MCFC in the second match. MCFC did seem to play its full lineup in that one as it clinched the group with the draw in that match, but the losses in group play were not competitive. That hurts the idea of playing +1 as insurance since a lopsided game against a bigger club like Inter probably will end in a multi-goal loss. Certainly a small sample size, but that's part of the problem with a small-time club stepping up into European competitions.
Inter did not advance past the UCL group stage either, a 1-1 draw with Praha was not a good start. They lost to Barca 2-1, beat Dortmund 2-0 then lost the return game at Dortmund. Sitting on four points after four group stage games with two other giants was not a good place to be and they were victorious on the road in Prague, but ended on 7 points losing to Barca at home in the final while Dortmund beat Prague at home to clinch the runner-up position. Continuing on the past results angle, Inter drew 1-1 at home before the New Year vs Atalanta before winning handily in the Serie A finale on August 1.
In terms of desire, both want the trophy but both should be qualified for Champions League next year as Shak won Ukraine again with a very similar point total to 2018-19 and Inter was Serie A runner-up. Shak won the Europa League in 2009 and were eliminated in the 2016 semifinal by Sevilla, so this isn't as special of a season as some may have expected (including myself). Inter won the Champions League in 2010, but I do not see a Europa League championship in their trophy case. Doubt that means a lot as many see this competition as the loser's Cup, but after all the debate about whether Manchester United cared or not I think it's clear these teams are putting their best squads out there.
In terms of X's and O's, Shak wants to push forward with its Brazilian-Ukrainian medley of players. Inter has the attacking talent to make good defenses pay, which I'm not sure Shak qualifies as a good defense to be included in that. Inter averaged above 2 goals per Serie A match and allowed just under 1, then 1.67 GF in the UCL group stage versus 1.5 allowed. Shak averaged above 1 GF in its UCL group, but allowed more than 2 per match. The total of 3 seems like a sensible number considering it looks like there will be goals in this match, though it's probably hanging 3 with juice to the under since it's a semifinal.
So, Shak is going to try and score goals, which makes that goal of insurance not as comfortable as it appears they will be conceding tonight barring an unforeseen defensive performance. An early Shak goal also does not indicate they will hang back and defend as evidenced by the push forward against Wolfsburg with a goal advantage that also included an away goal.
Inter should have success with Lukaku up front as they did against Leverkusen. He is a big boy and knows how to use his size to his advantage while Lautauro Martinez is a great running mate thanks to being a completely different player relying on speed rather than bulk. Conte utilized a 3-5-2 vs Leverkusen who wants to possess the ball to try and limit that desire, which clearly worked. Inter jumped ahead 2-0 and then hung on for 75' or so after Haivertz pulled one back to make it 2-1, which would be a satisfactory result here if I grab +1. Leverkusen has some defensive flaws including the high-line they play no matter the opponent, but I was interested to see Inter play that same formation against defensive-minded and physical Getafe.
Conte must like to fill the middle of the park more than he did in Serie A play since he had used 4-4-2 and 3-4-1-2 formations when I was paying attention, but that strategy may work here as well to try and reduce the opportunity for Shak to push forward. It appears Shak manager Castro will be doing it based on what he's shown so far, though he may see success if he can get players past the midfield and into the back-3. Godin is aged 34, de Vrij and Skriniar/Bastoni are not the most fleet of foot either.
So that may mean Conte plays that middle-5 a bit deeper to support his slower defenders, which could reduce some of the pressure on the Shak defense. It'll be much needed, we'll see how it works but I can't resist +1 and am still thinking it over
GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
a free header in the 6-yard box put anywhere but onto the unexpecting keeper's arm and maybe Shakhtar continues to possess the ball and takes it to ET, but that one chance didn't work and when Inter got its second the floodgates opened...
RBL surprised a lot of people including me to be alive here, though a lot of backlash against unattractive football came out in response to Diego Simeone's gameplan. I think a lot of people really dislike Atletico Madrid and how they play, I'm not one of those, but let's focus on how RBL did it.
Leipzig was supposed to be really harmed by Timo Werner leaving for Chelsea and moving before the end of the Champions League campaign, but Nagelsmann put forth an aggressive gameplan and really took it to Atleti. It was encouraging to see that he is not changing what got RBL to the UCL quarters, but that also provides a little bit of concern today. The RBL defense was not great at holding leads in the Bundesliga after the restart and that was hardly against the attacking skill that PSG will have up front today with Mbappe, Neymar and DiMaria.
Upamecano suddenly is rumored to Real Madrid and other top clubs, but he was not great in DFL play. He's young and therefore has some flaws including consistency, Tyler Adams said he's one of the best but what does he really know, but he will be tested today in the middle. Klostermann is also young and has some pedigree, but if he stays on the right side he will be in charge of limiting maybe the best player in the world. Nagelsmann played a LB at CB and a LM at LB against Atleti from what I put together, so there's some fluidity in his backline that indicates roles not being cemented. I'd say that's another concern.
If Mbappe is not fit to start, the line that has swelled to 0.75 may fall back to 0.5 and I'd probably like RBL a bit more. At +1 I probably play RBL due to that goal of insurance, but it does not appear this line will get there and maybe I'm thankful for it. Neymar was great against Atalanta despite all the misses, but he should be more locked in with more competitive matches under his belt. Today is now three thanks to the two cup finals, Mbappe may have some rust as well, but PSG as a whole is getting more in the flow after France canceled its season prematurely. Leipzig had a long layoff since the end of Bundesliga, but did get a friendly in with Europa survivor Wolfsburg before playing Atleti.
Will be looking forward to the lineups to make sure Mbappe is starting and to see if there are any changes in the RBL backline. Current lean is to RBL at +0.75 (-115), but not sure that's enough for me to play at the moment
RBL surprised a lot of people including me to be alive here, though a lot of backlash against unattractive football came out in response to Diego Simeone's gameplan. I think a lot of people really dislike Atletico Madrid and how they play, I'm not one of those, but let's focus on how RBL did it.
Leipzig was supposed to be really harmed by Timo Werner leaving for Chelsea and moving before the end of the Champions League campaign, but Nagelsmann put forth an aggressive gameplan and really took it to Atleti. It was encouraging to see that he is not changing what got RBL to the UCL quarters, but that also provides a little bit of concern today. The RBL defense was not great at holding leads in the Bundesliga after the restart and that was hardly against the attacking skill that PSG will have up front today with Mbappe, Neymar and DiMaria.
Upamecano suddenly is rumored to Real Madrid and other top clubs, but he was not great in DFL play. He's young and therefore has some flaws including consistency, Tyler Adams said he's one of the best but what does he really know, but he will be tested today in the middle. Klostermann is also young and has some pedigree, but if he stays on the right side he will be in charge of limiting maybe the best player in the world. Nagelsmann played a LB at CB and a LM at LB against Atleti from what I put together, so there's some fluidity in his backline that indicates roles not being cemented. I'd say that's another concern.
If Mbappe is not fit to start, the line that has swelled to 0.75 may fall back to 0.5 and I'd probably like RBL a bit more. At +1 I probably play RBL due to that goal of insurance, but it does not appear this line will get there and maybe I'm thankful for it. Neymar was great against Atalanta despite all the misses, but he should be more locked in with more competitive matches under his belt. Today is now three thanks to the two cup finals, Mbappe may have some rust as well, but PSG as a whole is getting more in the flow after France canceled its season prematurely. Leipzig had a long layoff since the end of Bundesliga, but did get a friendly in with Europa survivor Wolfsburg before playing Atleti.
Will be looking forward to the lineups to make sure Mbappe is starting and to see if there are any changes in the RBL backline. Current lean is to RBL at +0.75 (-115), but not sure that's enough for me to play at the moment
GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
glad i laid off RBL yesterday, nearly made it a play but it was not a fair fight
So now we have the largest mismatch of the 2020 Champions League upon us. Lyon catching a full two goals mirrors what they were getting from oddsmakers in the win vs Man City, but that number trickled to the full 2 while this line has been there the whole time. Bayern is awesome and should have been favored to win the competition, but lined to win by two goals in the semifinal is asking a lot.
All signs point to Bayern scoring today, so Lyon is going to need to get on the board at least once to force extra time. They've shown great discipline defensively in their two UCL matches since the re-start and kept a clean sheet against PSG without Mbappe, but this Bayern club seems to be a different monster. This monster is a little more normal with aerial threats up front unlike the shorter and quicker MCFC attackers, which should be a bit easier for Lyon's big center backs. Muller has been the creator ever since Flick took over, he will be very important to manage as he may be the most important player on the team. I'd expect that assignment to go to CDM Guimares, who by all accounts has been great and looks like he will be sold to the highest bidder soon. Lewandowski gets all the deserved headlines, and he will certainly score if given a penalty, but Muller is the straw that stirs the Munchen drink.
So how will Lyon score? Not sure. Bayern plays a very high line and pressures the ball in the opponent's half, which will likely lead to lots of possession since Lyon will be clearing the ball to avoid the mistakes made by Real Madrid in the R16 match. Surely they watched that on film against MCFC and decided not to do it, but Pep surprisingly played a more defensive lineup and even more surprisingly allowed Lyon to control the ball a ton more than anybody expected. I felt pretty good about my expectations in that one and was wrong, but feel similarly here. Flick will put a ton of pressure on Lyon and I expect OL to clear the ball a lot. When not frantically concerned about the press, there should be room over the top for long balls to Kornet and potentially Dembele if he is chosen to start today. Dembele is a question since Toro Ekambi was there as a more defensive forward in the two successful UCL matches, but two goals against MCFC may force Rudi's hand.
I don't think this is a guaranteed Bayern Munich advance, so I can't resist catching two goals. There was a fair amount of Lyon money hitting the market overnight, but it's starting to come back on Bayern and should continue until kickoff. I will be waiting to play the +2 until as close to kick as I can, but also will not risk losing the insurance of the full second goal
So now we have the largest mismatch of the 2020 Champions League upon us. Lyon catching a full two goals mirrors what they were getting from oddsmakers in the win vs Man City, but that number trickled to the full 2 while this line has been there the whole time. Bayern is awesome and should have been favored to win the competition, but lined to win by two goals in the semifinal is asking a lot.
All signs point to Bayern scoring today, so Lyon is going to need to get on the board at least once to force extra time. They've shown great discipline defensively in their two UCL matches since the re-start and kept a clean sheet against PSG without Mbappe, but this Bayern club seems to be a different monster. This monster is a little more normal with aerial threats up front unlike the shorter and quicker MCFC attackers, which should be a bit easier for Lyon's big center backs. Muller has been the creator ever since Flick took over, he will be very important to manage as he may be the most important player on the team. I'd expect that assignment to go to CDM Guimares, who by all accounts has been great and looks like he will be sold to the highest bidder soon. Lewandowski gets all the deserved headlines, and he will certainly score if given a penalty, but Muller is the straw that stirs the Munchen drink.
So how will Lyon score? Not sure. Bayern plays a very high line and pressures the ball in the opponent's half, which will likely lead to lots of possession since Lyon will be clearing the ball to avoid the mistakes made by Real Madrid in the R16 match. Surely they watched that on film against MCFC and decided not to do it, but Pep surprisingly played a more defensive lineup and even more surprisingly allowed Lyon to control the ball a ton more than anybody expected. I felt pretty good about my expectations in that one and was wrong, but feel similarly here. Flick will put a ton of pressure on Lyon and I expect OL to clear the ball a lot. When not frantically concerned about the press, there should be room over the top for long balls to Kornet and potentially Dembele if he is chosen to start today. Dembele is a question since Toro Ekambi was there as a more defensive forward in the two successful UCL matches, but two goals against MCFC may force Rudi's hand.
I don't think this is a guaranteed Bayern Munich advance, so I can't resist catching two goals. There was a fair amount of Lyon money hitting the market overnight, but it's starting to come back on Bayern and should continue until kickoff. I will be waiting to play the +2 until as close to kick as I can, but also will not risk losing the insurance of the full second goal
survive&advance
Nothing but net MFer!
I took a small bite on over 3.5 at plus odds. Already have a decent amount riding on a Bayern future. I like Bayern a lot better defensively with kimmich at cm, obviously the pavard injury changes things. But I think Lyon can net 1, maybe 2 here
survive&advance
Nothing but net MFer!
Some terrible finishing by Lyon today, definitely should’ve had at least one. Final should be a great one. Don’t love the matchup for Bayern
GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
Ran out of time to do a full write-up today, but I will be playing Sevilla catching 1/4 as I think their unity in the backline and midfield talent will do a bit more with possession than Shakhtar did with 65% of the ball in the last one.
I like Inter and Lukaku will be very scary up front per usual with Martinez playing off him, but can't resist winning half my risk if this one goes to extra time
I like Inter and Lukaku will be very scary up front per usual with Martinez playing off him, but can't resist winning half my risk if this one goes to extra time
