yesterday went fairly well, was again impressed by Shakhtar going forward albeit against a weaker side. Wolves got harmed by VAR which clearly has a long way to go to function properly if it misses an encroachment of a guy who clears the ball. Glad I didn't play the +0.25 as separately Sevilla controlled that whole match even if it lacked a threat up front besides Ocampos
Onto today...
Atalanta has been moving all over the place since the Mbappe injury vs ASSE, Teuchel said he would be in the team but not in the XI and we'll see if that's gamesmanship or not. Teuchel supposedly needs this one to keep his job, but that doesn't mean much for the team besides him likely putting Mbappe on the field ASAP for as long as possible.
Injuries have hit Atalanta as well, will be without its starting GK and Ilicic whose story I can’t explain but there’s some drama there. In soccer the GK is meant to be hidden as it's so hard to make a save on a dangerous threat, but that absence may mean a lot there. It also can mean something in leadership and ball possession against a high press as seen by Courtois putting Varane in a bad position to make a mistake that led to Man City's first goal. Ilicic seems to be a scoring threat and contributor to the offense, which will be missed, but that is not Atalanta's problem after setting all the goal-scoring records it did this campaign.
Gasperini will do what he's been doing, go for goals. Can't see Atalanta playing defense since they're underdogs today, especially with PSG likely down Mbappe, but that also means they will be open defensively. In the supposed PSG lineup, Icardi is the leading goal threat (2nd on the team), then Neymar and Sarabia. DiMaria suspended for this one was only the 5th on the list scoring 11 times in all competitions and then Cavani 6th with only 7 is no longer with the club. That means 2, 3, and 4 are available, so there are still plenty of scoring options on the pitch even without Mbappe.
Atalanta conceded 48 times in Serie A play, more than a goal per game. They escaped the group stage with a -4 GD and three losses, averaging two goals conceded per match. Their dominance in Serie A leaves me wondering how good they really are piling up huge wins against poor competition, though their results to close the season were not as bad as I had thought. The leaky defense combined with a backup keeper nearly ensures PSG will get a goal, which takes a 0-0 victory on +0.5 nearly out of the question. Very possible nerves will play a part and cup games tend to play closer since three points isn't as essential as not losing, but I think Atalanta will need to get on the board.
With the penalties and VAR problems, i'm not sure how a game can be completed without a penalty at this point. Very hard to know which side will get one, but 98 goals for in Serie A and a 2 goals per game average in UCL group play makes me think Atalanta will get on the board. Four goals in each leg against mid-table La Liga finisher Valencia doesn't say a ton thanks to the competition, but it at least should prevent PSG from selling out on offense knowing they can be punished when Atalanta has the ball.
The PSG defense is built in the middle with Thiago Silva and Kimpembe then Marquinhos in front of them. Atalanta's three-headed monster misses Ilicic, but Zapata will be a tough matchup if he performs anywhere near what he did in Serie A play. That's yet to be seen against better competition, but Muriel seems to always come off the bench on the wing and that'll be interesting to see if Gasperini stays with that tried and true lineup without Ilicic. Papu Gomez is the creator on the other wing, so it may be a bit more of a challenge for the PSG strong spine to close out on the ATA wings. Malinovskiy is no slouch as he had 9 goals in all competitions this year starting ahead of Muriel at LW, but that may be where this game is decided. Can ATA use its advantage on the wings to break the seal on the PSG net?
The total is 3 with juice on the under, probably a little high for a UCL quarterfinal and that's what's drawing in the under money when you push if it lands 3. Money continues to hit Atlanta today after a long ride since the matchup was announced. PSG started -0.5 then fell to -0.25 on the Mbappe injury among other things and has come back to -0.5 in the past few days with rumors Mbappe may play. If he starts the juice should swing back to the PSG side and this one probably closes PSG -0.75, but Teuchel said he was unlikely to do more than participate off the bench
