AUGUST BASEBALL ⚾

[mrpickem]

SUNDAY​

• 5/8.00 Nationals +160
• 5/5.25 Cardinals +105
• 4/7.04 Rockies +176
• 9/2.44 ASTROS -369
• 5/4.41 Twins -113
• 8/6.96 Tigers -115
• 5/3.27 Mariners -153
• 2/1.90 Royals -105
• 5/4.35 Brewers -115
• 8/4.60 Cubs -174
• 5/7.65 Athletics +153

randoms...

STREAKS: SEA -5​

HOME TEAMS 53-37 +8.3% ROI LAST 7 DAYS​

HOME DOGS ML 19-13 +37.9% ROI LAST 7 DAYS​

HOME DOGS RL 22-10 +23.6% ROI LAST 7 DAYS​

MODEL PLAYS: *STL *HOU *DET *CHC WAS COL MIN SEA MIL OAK​

​

 

[mrpickem]

 

[mrpickem]

the rest...

• 3/2.50 Marlins +1½ -120
• 4/4.80 Rockies +1½ +120
• 6/6.30 Rockies u11 +105
• 5/4.03 Orioles -124
• 3/2.73 Astros u8½ -110
• 2/2.20 Mariners -1½ +110
• 3/2.57 PIRATES u8½ -117
• 2/1.00 Royals +1½ -200
• 3/2.61 Cubs u7 -115
• 5/5.25 Athletics u7 +105
• 3/3.00 Braves -1½ +100
• 3/3.00 Angeles u9 +100

REVISED MODEL PLAYS: *STL *HOU *DET *CHC WAS MIN BAL SEA OAK

 

[mrpickem]

AUGUST [173-134 +105.39u]️
LAST [18-5 +45.38u]️

⊹ ࣪ ﹏𓊝﹏𓂁﹏⊹ ࣪ ˖​

MONDAY​

• 2/3.64 Marlins +182
• 5/5.50 Red Sox +110
• 6/3.16 Royals -190
• 3/4.44 Reds +148
• 3/3.30 Pirates +110
• 3/4.32 Twins +144
• 4/1.80 GIANTS -222

randoms...

STREAKS: MIL 5​

HOME TEAMS 52-39 +5.1% ROI LAST 7 DAYS​

HOME DOGS ML 17-15 +23.4% ROI LAST 7 DAYS​

HOME DOGS RL 20-12 +14.5% ROI LAST 7 DAYS​

UNDERS 56-36-6 60.9% FOR +14.1% ROI LAST 7 DAYS​

MODEL PLAYS: *KC MIA SF​

 

[mrpickem]

 

[mrpickem]

the rest...

• 2/2.00 Marlins +1½ +100
• 3/3.00 Astros u8 +100
• 3/2.73 Giants u8 -110

Short board today and even shorter on selections, but lets get to work!

​

 

[mrpickem]

AUGUST [176-140 +96.79u]️
LAST [3-6-1 -8.60u]️

TUESDAY​

• 3/4.14 Marlins +138
• 5/3.50 Nationals -143
• 3/2.54 Cardinals -118
• 3/1.90 Yankees -158
• 6/3.16 Royals -190
• 2/1.79 RAYS -112
• 5/6.55 Reds +131
• 5/4.63 TWINS -108
• 8/11.04 Mariners +138

randoms...

STREAKS: MIL 5, KC 5​

HOME TEAMS 53-37 +5.7% ROI LAST 7 DAYS​

HOME DOGS ML 15-15 +11.8% ROI LAST 7 DAYS​

HOME DOGS RL 18-12 +10.1% ROI LAST 7 DAYS​

UNDERS 49-35-3 58.3% FOR +8.9% ROI LAST 7 DAYS​

MODEL PLAYS: *SEA MIA WAS STL NYY KC CIN MIN​

 

[mrpickem]

 

[mrpickem]

the rest...

• 3/3.30 Diamondbacks -1½ +110
• 3/2.10 Yankees -143
• 3/2.61 Royals u8½ -115
• 3/2.68 ASTROS u8½ -112
• 2/2.90 Rays -1½ +145
• 3/2.73 Rays o7½ -110
• 3/2.73 Reds o8 -110
• 3/2.62 ORIOLES o8 -114
• 3/3.00 Rangers u8 +100
• 3/2.86 Cubs u7½ -105
• 3/2.50 Twins o7½ -120
• 3/3.00 White Sox +1½ +100
• 3/2.86 Dodgers u8½ -105

REVISED MODEL PLAYS: *NYY *SEA WAS STL KC CIN MIN

Buying off fish with risky RL play, also adding to NYY

 

[Smallmouth_bass]

I truly appreciate all the info and I'm glad you are back! Congrats on a great August!

 

[mrpickem]

AUGUST [183-155 +57.59u]️
LAST [7-15 -39.20u]️

WEDNESDAY​

• 9/5.85 Nationals -154
• 2/1.90 Cardinals -105
• 8/5.16 Yankees -155
• 3/1.55 Royals -193
• 5/4.20 Padres -119

randoms...

STREAKS: MIL 6​

DOGS 26-34 +4.1% ROI LAST 7 DAYS​

HOME DOGS ML 17-13 +26.3% ROI LAST 7 DAYS​

HOME DOGS RL 20-10 +21.7% ROI LAST 7 DAYS​

UNDERS 44-35-3 55.7% FOR +6.9% ROI LAST 7 DAYS​

MODEL PLAYS: *NYY *WAS SD​

 

[mrpickem]

the rest...

• 2/1.74 Marlins +1½ -115
• 3/3.00 Marlins u8½ +100
• 3/2.73 Nationals u8½ -110
• 3/2.86 Braves u8 -105
• 2/3.90 Cardinals -1½ +195
• 3/1.90 Red Sox +1½ -158
• 3/3.15 Royals u9 +105
• 3/3.00 Orioles o8½ +100
• 5/4.35 Rangers u8½ -115
• 3/2.62 GIANTS u7 -114
• 3/3.00 Reds o8½ +100
• 3/2.73 Cubs u8 -110

 

[mrpickem]

THURSDAY​

• 9/6.29 Padres -143
• 8/8.80 Athletics +110
• 5/3.23 Orioles -155

randoms...

STREAKS: na​

HOME DOGS ML 14-15 +9.0% ROI LAST 7 DAYS​

UNDERS 49-36-6 57.6% FOR +7.5% ROI LAST 7 DAYS​

MODEL PLAYS: *SD *OAK *BAL​

Doyers starting to show their strength down the stretch. Best record by 2 games for first time this season I believe, getting healthier, dominating my model ratings and looking poised for another championship run.

 

[mrpickem]

 

[mrpickem]

the rest...

• 3/2.73 Nationals u9 -110
• 3/2.61 Pirates u7½ -115
• 3/3.00 Braves u8 +100
• 5/7.95 Guardians +159
• 3/2.73 Guardians o8 -110
• 3/2.61 Angels o8½ -115
• 2/2.80 Orioles -1½ +140
• 3/3.00 Orioles u8 +100
• 3/1.69 Cubs -178

Although CLE is only 7-17 away vs righties over last 10 weeks, I think they have punched above their weight all year and should not be getting +160 @NYY. Their record is literally the same as NYY at 73-53 to 74-53. With the line moving to this number, the Guards also become a standard model play, and I agree. Cole is still good but not the force of recent years.
Early weekday action, you gotta love it! 凸( •̀_•́ )凸

 

[mrpickem]

AUGUST [194-161 +64.05u]️
LAST [5-7 -10.89u]️

FRIDAY​

• 3/2.52 Cubs -119
• 10/3.94 BRAVES -254
• 5/6.45 Mets +129
• 6/5.36 Astros -112
• 6/3.41 JAYS -176
• 4/1.50 YANKEES -267
• 5/3.91 Royals -128
• 5/6.00 Athletics +120
• 5/7.15 Giants +143
• 6/10.8 Rays +180

randoms...

STREAKS: na​

HOME DOGS ML 14-14 +11.7% ROI LAST 7 DAYS​

UNDERS 49-33-5 59.8% FOR +13.1% ROI LAST 7 DAYS​

WAS 7-17 L60 DAYS ON THE ROAS (FADE FOR +10.5% ROI)​

ATL 7-2 +16.4% ROI @HOME ON FRIDAY THIS SEASON​

SALE 8-2 +16.3% ROI @HOME THIS SEASON(RL 8-2 +54.9% ROI)​

MODEL PLAYS: *ATL *TOR *TB NYM HOU CLE KC OAK​

​

• These are my plays and I bet modestly, well within my means. Tail, fade or ignore...just remember when you play them, they are your plays then! My lines are always early AM, probably before most of you are up, so if nothing else you will be able to see how the line moves from this time. I use 4 books (all reduced juice). Bettersden probably gets 70% of my action as they just offer better lines on MLB & UFC, FB is yet to be determined. I also use BAS, Looselines & Heritage. Their strengths: BAS posts reduced bases at 9am for totals and RLs, LL has consistently competitive ML odds down to 8 cents, while Heritage offers decent lines and covers many different plays. BD posts early lines for most every game with starter listed or not, they don't give a fuck(some games have nick limit) and all their games are action(ML, RL or TOT).

 

[mrpickem]

my model sheet with sched that actually gives the plays

FWIW Implied is current away line converted to % to win, Actual in model % to win including starter worth, I played around with percent difference to justify play for the last few years and I do adjust it minimally at times, but the standard is when implies/actual differ by 15.5% currently (has varied 14-16%) and top plays currently is at 27% (has varied 20-27.5%). I know most of you couldn't care less, just wanted to show there's a method to my madness. lol

 

[mrpickem]

FOR LINE COMPARISON RIGHT NOW 9:15AM ESP

BAS


LOOSELINS


BD

HERITAGE



ANNOYING FACT IS 2 SORT BY ROTATION WHT 2 SORT BY TIME, WHICH IS NOT ADJUSTABLE BY USER. I ONLY INCLUDED REDUCED LINES FROM BAS & BD AS THEY ARE THE ONLY ONES THAT REDUCE TOT & RL, BUT THEIR ML ODDS ARE VERY GOOD AS WELL, JUST NOT CONSIDERED REDUCED FOR WHATEVER REASON.

 

[mrpickem]

the rest...

• 3/3.15 Cubs o8½ +105
• 3/2.73 Braves u7½ -110
• 3/2.73 Padres u8 -110
• 3/3.00 Orioles u8½ +100
• 3/2.73 Angels o8½ -110
• 3/3.15 White Sox u8½ +105
• 3/2.89 ROCKIES o8½ -104
• 3/2.50 DIAMONDBACKS o9½ -120
• 3/2.73 Cardinals o8½ -110
• 3/3.03 RAYS o9 +101

 

[mrpickem]

AUGUST [206-168 +63.25u]️
LAST [12-8 -0.80u]️

SATURDAY​

• 5/8.00 Nationals +160
• 6/2.49 Tigers -241
• 4/9.60 Rockies +240
• 6/5.71 Mariners -105
• 5/5.05 DIAMONDBACKS +101
• 5/8.45 Rays +169

randoms...

STREAKS: LAD 5​

UNDERS 48-34-5 58.5% FOR +10.7% ROI LAST 7 DAYS​

MODEL PLAYS: *SEA TB WAS DET COL ARI​

Was on the verge of a good night until Giant per imploded. Tough to go 12-8 and still lose money.

 

[mrpickem]

 

[mrpickem]

the rest...

• 3/2.73 Braves u8½ -110
• 3/3.15 Mets o7½ +105
• 3/2.61 Angels o8½ -115
• 3/2.86 Rangers o8½ -105
• 5/2.24 TIGERS -223
• 2/1.54 Tigers -1½ -130
• 2/3.02 DIAMONDBACKS -1½ +151
• 3/2.73 Diamondbacks o9½ -110
• 3/2.86 Rays o7½ -105
• 3/5.46 Rays +182

 

[mrpickem]

Forgot to update model plays although some earlier addon ML action did reflect such.

REVISED MODEL PLAYS: *DET *SEA *TB WAS SD COL ARI

Sometimes to trunk can cover other issues...

 

[mrpickem]

SATURDAY
5/8.00 Nationals +160
6/2.49 Tigers -241
4/9.60 Rockies +240
6/5.71 Mariners -105
5/5.05 DIAMONDBACKS +101
5/8.45 Rays +169

3/2.73 Braves u8½ -110
3/3.15 Mets o7½ +105
3/2.61 Angels o8½ -115
3/2.86 Rangers o8½ -105
5/2.24 TIGERS -223
2/1.54 Tigers -1½ -130
2/3.02 DIAMONDBACKS -1½ +151
3/2.73 Diamondbacks o9½ -110
3/2.86 Rays o7½ -105
3/5.46 Rays +182

( -_•)╦̵̵̿╤─​

SUNDAY​

• 5/2.82 Braves -177
• 5/3.18 Cubs -157
• 3/4.53 Angels +151
• 2/1.45 Tigers -138
• 3/1.11 Yankees -271
• 8/6.06 Royals -132
• 8/5.97 Mariners -134

randoms...

STREAKS: ARI 5, MIA -5​

ROAD CHALK ON ML 20-9 +20.4% ROI LAST 7 DAYS​

ROAD CHALK ON RL 13-13 +11.4% ROI LAST 7 DAYS​

KC 5-1 BOTH ML(+66.6%) & RL(+49.7%) VS NL OVER LAST SIX GAMES​

KC 7-4 BOTH ML(+15.7%) & RL(+12%) OVERALL LAST TWO WEEKS​

PHI 2-7 SU AS DOG LAST 50 DAYS(FADE FOR +38% ROI)​

MODEL PLAYS: *SEA *KC ATL​

​

​

 

[mrpickem]

Even though Doyers been hot, the Pads and Snakes have been absolute best money teams since the break, Therefore LAD with the best record in MLB still only leads the division by 3–4 games over these 2.







I'll try to catch Zebby's 2nd career start today in MIN

 

[mrpickem]

the rest...

• 5/4.55 Braves u8½ -110
• 4/4.04 Cubs -1½ +101
• 3/2.55 METS o8½ -118
• 3/2.59 ANGELS o8 -116
• 3/2.86 Rangers o8 -105
• 2/2.30 Tigers -1½ +115
• 2/1.60 Yankees -1½ -125
• 5/4.76 Yankees u9 -105
• 5/6.35 Cardinals +127
• 3/2.73 Cardinals o8½ -110
• 5/6.40 Athletics +128
• 3/2.73 RAYS o9 -110

REVISED MODEL PLAYS: *SEA *KC ATL STL OAK​

 

[mrpickem]

MONDAY​

• 5/4.76 Cardinals -105
• 3/3.33 G1-Guardians +111
• 3/2.56 G1-GUARDIANS u8½ -117
• 3/2.50 G2-GUARDIANS u8½ -120
• 3/4.08 White Sox +136
• 3/3.33 Rays +111
• 6/6.00 Twins +100

randoms...

STREAKS: ARI 6, LAA -5​

ROAD CHALK ON ML 19-10 +15.1% ROI LAST 7 DAYS​

ROAD CHALK ON RL 15-14 +7.7% ROI LAST 7 DAYS​

MODEL PLAYS: STL COL WAS MIN​

 

[mrpickem]

 

[mrpickem]

rhe rest...

• 3/4.44 Marlins -1½ +148
• 3/2.86 Rockies u10½ -105
• 3/2.61 Jays o9 -115
• 3/2.86 Braves o7½ -105

 

[mrpickem]

AUGUST [236-197 +70.90u]️
LAST [4-7 -15.11u]️

TUESDAY​

• 2/1.57 Cubs -127
• 6/4.26 ROCKIES -141
• 3/3.12 Mets +104
• 3/4.29 Angels +143
• 3/4.05 White Sox +135
• 8/5.40 Mariners -148
• 4/2.99 Phillies -134
• 3/5.70 Nationals +190
• 3/2.81 Braves -106
• 3/1.62 Dodgers -185

​

randoms...

STREAKS: ARI 6, TOR 5, LAA -5​

ROAD TEAMS 59-47 +7.1% ROI LAST 7 DAYS​

ROAD CHALK ON ML 22-9 +24% ROI LAST 7 DAYS​

ROAD CHALK ON RL 17-14 +14.5% ROI LAST 7 DAYS​

MODEL PLAYS: STL *COL *SEA CHW PHI WAS​

 

[2daBank]

I don’t wanna see you dropping any more the next 4 days bro, you had a great August let’s Jack the number up a little more not give any back next 4-5 days!

Line the Seattle play a lot

 

[2daBank]

Heys where are the charts for the day! I come in here for 2 things, jerk off to pretty girl and look at charts! I guess 3rd would be rooting for you to lessor extent!

 

[mrpickem]

more randoms

Rays 7-17 @SEA last 10 years, including 1-4 in last 5​

Rays on 3 overs in 14 road games this month​

M's 23-41-3 on total @home this season, under 64.1% (3rd best in MLB)​

the rest...

• 2/2.50 CUBS -1½ +125
• 5/5.00 Cardinals u8 +100
• 3/2.91 GIANTS o7½ -103
• 5/5.25 Rockies u11 +105
• 3/2.73 Mets o8½ -110
• 3/2.73 Guardians u9 -110
• 3/2.73 Jays o9½ -110
• 3/3.15 White Sox u8½ +105
• 3/3.00 Mariners u6½ +100
• 2/2.86 PHILLIES -1½ +143
• 3/2.50 Phillies u9 -120
• 3/2.61 Braves o8 -115

 

[mrpickem]

Flipping off LAA to DET

• 8.64/6 Tigers -144

 

[mrpickem]

WEDNESDAY​

• 8/5.03 Pirates -159
• 3/3.54 Cardinals +118
• 2/2.32 Marlins +116
• 3/3.66 Royals +122
• 3/2.88 Astros -104
• 5/9.00 Nationals +180
• 5/3.55 Braves -141
• 8/7.84 ORIOLES -102

randoms...

• STREAKS: DET 5, LAA -6
• ROAD TEAMS 50-45 +9.2% ROI LAST 7 DAYS
• ROAD CHALK ON ML 24-8 +27.7% ROI LAST 7 DAYS
• ROAD CHALK ON RL 20-12 +28.7% ROI LAST 7 DAYS
• MODEL PLAYS: *PIT *BAL STL WAS ATL

​

 

[mrpickem]

 

[mrpickem]

the rest...

• 3/1.60 5Inn-Pirates -187
• 3/2.07 Giants +1½ -145
• 2/1.25 Marlins +1½ -160
• 3/2.86 Rockies u11 -105
• 3/2.43 Met o8½ -123
• 5/4.81 GUARDIANS u7½ -104
• 5/7.85 Rays +157
• 8/11.52 White Sox +144
• 2/1.82 White Sox +1½ -110
• 2/2.10 Nationals +1½ +105
• 3/2.38 Braves -126
• 3/2.73 Orioles o8½ -110

 

[mrpickem]

Yesterday started with 2 teams blowing 10 & 3 run leads after the 6th inning, and they both shat the bed within 30 min of each other(PIT was top play).
Then later, two of my other top plays both blew leads although not as dramatically. (bal/chw)
Oh well, nothing to do but keep firing!


AUGUST [261-213 +72.82u]️
LAST [11-9 -9.11u]️

THURSDAY​

• 2/1.92 Padres -104
• 9/9.90 Marlins +110
• 5/4.37 Diamondbacks -114
• 8/5.60 Phillies -143
• 6/3.90 Tigers -154
• 3/4.26 Royals +142

randoms...

STREAKS: DET 6, CHW -5, LAA -7​

ROAD CHALK ON ML 23-11 +13.8% ROI LAST 7 DAYS​

ROAD CHALK ON RL 19-15 +14.8% ROI LAST 7 DAYS​

MODEL PLAYS: *MIA *PHI *DET ARI​

 

[mrpickem]

 

[mrpickem]

the rest...

• 2/3.20 Padres -1½ +160
• 6/5.17 ROCKIES -116
• 2/1.21 Marlins +1½ -165
• 5/4.55 Rockies u11½ -110
• 3/2.60 METS o8 -116
• 4/1.72 Rangers -232
• 2/1.43 Rangers -1½ -140
• 3/3.09 White Sox u8½ +103
• 3/2.10 Orioles +1½ -143

...made mistake on MIA, should not have been such a stoudt play so I backed off some. Also MIA is not a model play at all.​

​

,; (ง ﾛ )ง ;,

​

 

[mrpickem]

AUGUST [266-222 +57.34u]️
LAST [5-9 -15.48u]️

FRIDAY​

• 3/2.52 G1-Brewers -119
• 8/8.48 DIAMONDBACKS +106
• 3/2.14 Rangers -140
• 5/7.10 Royals +142
• 2/3.44 Angels +172
• 3/2.46 Rays -122
• 8/12.16 Cardinals +152
• 3/1.86 GUARDIANS -161
• 3/1.92 Orioles -156

randoms...

STREAKS: CHW -6​

AWAY TEAMS 50-46 +6.3% L7 DAYS​

ROAD CHALK ON ML 24-9 +20.9% ROI LAST 7 DAYS​

ROAD CHALK ON RL 19-14 +15.8% ROI LAST 7 DAYS​

MODEL PLAYS: *ARI *STL KC​

​

 

[mrpickem]

 

[2daBank]

I dunno how they have made snakes dogs so many times during this crazy stretch, believe I heard the other day they havnt lost a series since June 1st and they were dogs the whole series in Boston and now here we go again they dogs to a team they beat like a pimp beats his ho’s in last years playoffs! Sign me up. Keep slapping those asses snakes!

 

[mrpickem]

I dunno how they have made snakes dogs so many times during this crazy stretch, believe I heard the other day they havnt lost a series since June 1st and they were dogs the whole series in Boston and now here we go again they dogs to a team they beat like a pimp beats his ho’s in last years playoffs! Sign me up. Keep slapping those asses snakes!

...and the line done climbed another 15 cents since I played. Yanks most always laying exta

 

[mrpickem]

the rest...

• 3/3.45 G2-Brewers +115
• 3/2.61 Nationals +1½ -115
• 3/2.86 Nationals u8½ -105
• 3/3.00 Diamondbacks u8½ +100
• 3/3.00 Marlins +1½ +100
• 3/3.18 Tigers +106
• 3/2.62 JAYS o7½ -114
• 2/2.00 Angels +1½ +100
• 3/2.94 RAYS u7½ -102
• 3/2.78 CARDINALS o8 -108
• 3/2.61 Orioles o11 -115

​

​

 

[2daBank]

...and the line done climbed another 15 cents since I played. Yanks most always laying exta

I’ll never understand some the line moves in thiis sport, as if the games moves didn’t often confuse the hell out of me the prop moves can be downright insane, they will hang a number I know is wrong, I’ll drag my happy ass across the river late at night (I live in Missouri who sucks but I’m just a 5 min drive to Illinois so I go over the river and thru the woods to bet!) anyways I’ll be all proud of myself then I wake up in morning and line either moved 20 cents against me or has dropped a full damn number! Lol. Usually doesn’t matter I’ve found way more often than not my number was correct! I lose more games when I beat the move than when it goes against me! Has def had me taking far less late night trips as I’ve learned waiting usually helps more than hurts! No clue wtf some these ppl !!!! Ok bro finish this month w a smoke show!! Gl

 

[mrpickem]

AUGUST [272-237 +20.48u]️
LAST [6-14 -36.86u]️

SATURDAY

• 3/2.50 Cubs -120
• 2/1.71 Brewers -117
• 3/2.44 Dosgers -123
• 7/4.67 Tigers -150
• 3/3.69 Royals +123
• 3/1.95 MARINERS -154
• 7/10.34 CARDINALS +148
• 2/3.64 White Sox +182
• 3/1.88 ORIOLES -160

randoms...

• STREAKS: CHW -7
• AWAY TEAMS 55-42 +13.9% L7 DAYS
• MODEL PLAYS: *DET *STL SF KC

 

[mrpickem]

the rest...

SATURDAY

• 3/2.50 Cubs -120
• 2/1.71 Brewers -117
• 3/2.44 Dodgers -123
• 7/4.67 Tigers -150
• 3/3.69 Royals +123
• 3/1.95 MARINERS -154
• 7/10.34 CARDINALS +148
• 2/3.64 White Sox +182
• 3/1.88 ORIOLES -160
• 2/2.01 WHITE SOX +1½ +101
• 3/2.86 Rockies u11½ -105