Atlanta +1450 Can this happen?

Sammy Meatballs

Sammy Meatballs

Sammy Meatballs? Never Heard of Her
I hope that Atlanta can pull off this monumental upset. I hate Boston and there overrated D. How can a team have a good D with Cassel, Allen and Pierce on the team.

I am thinking this may be decent value for a game 7 for the following reasons--

-If this game is close or tied at the end of the 3rd quarter I give the edge to Atlanta because they have the best player in the series Joe Johnson.

-Also I expect the Shit 3 to struggle if it is a close game. If the SHIT 3 can get off they will flourish in a blowout type game, but will choke in a close game.

-Atlanta has nothing to lose which is surprising that they are not more competitive in Boston.

-Atlanta at home drives, drives,drives and drives some more. Boston has no interior D as pencil stick Garnett cannot stop a bigger player. I presume Atlanta just takes outside jumpers on the road.

-Another key factor that no one is talking about is Michael BIBBY- he is outplaying all the point guards for the Celts- He has done it before in the playoffs and has been a clutch playoff guy with Sacramento in the past- Bibby is controlling the games- This is why Celts are losing their point guard play is shit, see the last second Rondo shot last game.

-Also I really think Retard RIVERS has no idea who can play point for this CELTS team. He puts RONDO at the wrong times, and the ALIEN cannot guard anyone-

-The most glaring thing that I noticed about Boston is their lack of DEFENSE. Compared to Detrtoit people thought they may lose to Philly but their D was solid and is still solid, look at what they did to ORL

-This game is being played on a regulation size court and if ATL can somehow play the same way they play at home they can win this game.

-IF the Celts D on the road shows up they are in big big trouble. I was watching all the games in ATL, and I would have thought that ATL was the #1 seed and Boston was the #8 seed, that is the level of domination that ATL can take to Boston.


-Have I given 1450 reasons to play on ATLANTA tomorrow, even for a $100 it pays handsomely.

-One more reason is Garnett, Allen and Pierce are basically losers, they are guys who have not won anything, and will not win anything. Win or lose this team is all HYPE. You cannot put 3 name players on a team and except them to win. I see any of the teams killing them with players like Cp3, Parker, and Kobe, look at what Joe JOHNSON is doing to them? Is Joe Johnson that good, or is the Celts that bad?????

-Anyway I think there is value on ATL at +1450- ANyone agree with me?

Mark my words """ This series is all in ATL's heads. THey are clearly the more athletic and better team than the Celts. They have mismatches all over the floor- Bibby vs ALien, Horford is too strong for Garnett, Joe JOHNSON is abusing Old man ALLEN. Atlanta is faster, quicker, younger and way better defensively as they reject the shit out of Garnett. Even Pachulia is much stronger than GARNETT and it seems, that he wants to beat the shit out of Garnett. It is not surprising this team is losing and is in game 7- they are the REd Storm a team known for players past their prime and ALL NAME and no substance. What has GARNETT ever done? PIERCE looks like he should hit the treadmill and lay off the donuts? Ray ALLEN wishes he was back in Seattle I bet to jack up 40 shots a game.

To make matters complete DOC RIVERS will choke this one away , he is under tremendous pressure and may just completely do some retarded things in this one.

In this league you HAVE To WANT IT. This is why teams like Detroit, Lakers and SPurs win? What do these 3 teams have in COMMON????

They all bitch to the REFS cause they want to win badly. Parker and Duncan and SHEED gets the T's. They are competitors. KOBE bitches also?

Who bitches on ORLANDO??? Does Turkoglu, Howard, Lewis bitch? NO they are content with losing--

You have to want the win and go out there and get it. Boston from what I have seen is weak mentally- Their armour is GARNETT bitching and talking to everyone motivating them? What kind of team is this when they need that? Duncan does not do that. THey could not beat ATL on the road because they were outwilled for the game. These type of players will fold very quickly- They allowed ATL major runs against them and had no answers at all.

I think Allen and Pierce are used to losing, so is garnett, the ALien, Rondo, don't care either. Coincidentally the only player who is clutch shooter is POSEY? WHY? He won a championship with Miami that is why.

THe KEY IMO is the point guard. They are going to say after the game, the young RONDO and ALIEN cost them. THey are going to make notions that Boston was not solid at the point. I think in a close game both of these clowns will choke.

Boston turns the ball over and over. I think the youth here, may realize it is game 7 and just go out and beat the less athletic team. Atlanta is better, they just have to prove it on the court tomorrow. We have 5 players they have 5 players, and its not like we have not won games on the road in the regular season.



I don't see this team as being 14.5 point favorites and think ATL can win this one straight up tomorrow.
 
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atlanta got killed in boston in games 1,2 and 5. i dont see how in the world atlanta can pull a upset
 
I am feeling good about this game-- Thinking ATL can keep close and pull this one off-- I hope STERN cooperates and does not give bullshit reffing.

Atlanta has nothing to lose and can win this one- It takes the whole Celts team to stop Joe JOHNSON- this is trouble if other Hawks are on also. I think this team is young but with Bibby and Johnson they can be calming influences and help win this game.

The 14.5 is a number in this game and it can be way way way off.

The 3 spreads of 9 points on the road in game 3,4,6 were way way off.

So this proves to me the spread means shit in this series. I dont look at spread. I honestly believe Atlanta is the better team here. They have Joe JOhnson, JOsh SMITH and BIBBY, that is much better than the bIG 3.

Atlanta's major concern here is the game is on the road and young players. Other than that Atlanta is better rebounding, shooting, driving, defending, coaching, rejecting, dribbling, alley ooping, assisting, free throw shooting. They are better in every area, they have better hair doos also.
 
i hate betting double digit favs in the playoffs but tommorow will be the second time this year im betting the big chalk (1st was game 5) boston in this series is a different team playing in the garden. im also on the under for game 7
 
This big 3 conglomerate is the biggest joke I have ever seen in PRO sports.

-Have an aging, fat guy in Pierce who always did well scoring cause he took so many shots. Plays terrible D also.

-Allen played for a loser in Seattle, hasn't played a meaningfull game, and it shows with his play offensively and defensively in this series-

-Garnett- A wannabee DUNCAN, except when the bulk is inside you will
find him falling in love with the outside jumper. He shows me he cannot lead a team, every other star had their teams win at least one game on the road in round 1- Cp3, Duncan, KObe, Lebron, Wallace, except for the Garnett.
 
JC88 said:
i hate betting double digit favs in the playoffs but tommorow will be the second time this year im betting the big chalk (1st was game 5) boston in this series is a different team playing in the garden. im also on the under for game 7
Click to expand...


Good luck if I dont win outright I hope u get yours buddy.
 
If this game was in ATL, I think the Hawks would have a chance. Being that it's in Boston, I'd rather take the points because having the Hawks steal a game 7 on the road is gonna be hard. But who knows, anything can happen.
 
there wasnt a upset in round 1 yet so maybe it'll happen in this last series. i still like the chalk tho
 
cogenman said:
If this game was in ATL, I think the Hawks would have a chance. Being that it's in Boston, I'd rather take the points because having the Hawks steal a game 7 on the road is gonna be hard. But who knows, anything can happen.
Click to expand...

Also betting this play at +1450 is very very very smart to play, because you have multiple options if Hawks are winning at half or at the end of 3 quarters.

This way you can hedge out for a huge huge profit if the line presents itself the opportunity to do so.
 
That is my only bet for tonight probably. I just haven't decided how much to wager on it, since the odds to win are still worth the risk, but not too big of course.
Hope we both cash in!
 
ticket number 20234501-1:

<TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD>Wager Type:</TD><TD>Money Line</TD></TR><TR><TD>Wager Status:</TD><TD>Pending</TD></TR><TR><TD>Risk / To Win Amount:</TD><TD>100.00 / 1,450.00 (USD) Accepted 5/4/2008 2:26 AM - EST</TD></TR><TR><TD></TD></TR></TD></TR><TR><TD>Sport / Period:</TD><TD>NBA Basketball / Game </TD></TR><TR><TD>Line:


</TD><TD>Atlanta Hawks 5/4/2008 1:00:01 PM - (EST)
+1450

</TD></TR><TR><TD>Opponent:</TD><TD>Boston Celtics </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


YEAH divol cannot pass this one up BRO- WIth a lead we could have an easy opportunity to make 7 or 8 hundred at half or at end of 3rd qtr.

I like this one, as long as we are in a game here, we will make our money back on this one easily. I think we can do it, as long as we survive the initial surge by the Celts, all the pressure will be on them as they shoot their shots will be tight.
 
Great writeup as always Sammy. I'm on this too because the team with their backs against the wall is Boston. Atlanta can play loose because no one expected them to be in this position. Boston has name players, older players. These guys just haven't been performing in the losses. Even in the wins, Atlanta has been able to drive the paint fairly easily. PTP is the key in this game. Forget Boston's shooting because if Atlanta can drive, they'll match Boston point for point.

Think about it this way guys. How many of you play the lottery? The most expensive tickets are $20. Drop that at the grocery/liquor store and HOPE to hit the million, but will be thrilled just to come away with $50 right? Drop $20 on Atlanta and that payout will be over $300.

They are the one's coming in with the momentum. All they have to do is win one game. To me this is not just a lottery ticket we hope to cash, this team has a legitimate shot to win this.

GL on whatever you play.
 
I agree Hougton in this situation I can bring some similar situations--

Patriots were favored by 12.5 over the Giants are very invinsible and were supposed to win easily. Boston is supposed to win easily also. This is why they play the games, in my eyes there are 2 teams playing and one will win the game.

WHen teams are favored by 12 or more it appears that that line means absolutely nothing-- THe team getting the points often wins the game outright. Superbowl double digit dogs were winning outright also of late.

Throw the first 6 games out of the window, they mean nothing, this is a ONE game playoff sudden death-- I agree Houghton Chemical ATL can get into the paint no problem, Boston is relying on Ray ALLEN or PIERCE to stop Johnson and company from getting in the paint are they crazy. THey even had garnett covering Bibby at one point late in the game.

Just need to keep this close and ATL will win it I believe with Bibby and Joe Johnson, who can take over games. Also I think Horford will dominate Garnett, Horford won the NCAA championship with Florida so he has won something unlike Garnett who has won nothing-

Atlanta players said they will win the series, they do not look intimidated at all at home, just need to play with similar intensity on the road
 
The difference between playing the lottery and playing ATL in this game is - drum roll - Mike Bibby can't throw away the correct numbered ball on you as it rolls down the chute.

I wouldnt bet hustle man's money on the Atlanta ml. For me, that about says it all. But I can wish those who do all the karmic luck in the world since I won't play Bostom (ATS is a diff. matter).
 
Crimes join us we will defeat the big 3 tomorrow- They are old, slow, and chokers. They have not played a game like this since their college days--

Garnett is a consistent loser-- He cannot do it, I think Joe Johnson and Bibby can dominate this. They cannot stop us in the paint and cannot stop ATL. We will find Ray Allen and Pierce and abuse them on D.
 
Expert Picks

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MOre importantly I need the Underdog Good luck Charm Throwback to be on this pick.

We have not lost together on an underdog Ml winner since 1812.
 
historically, home teams in th PO win at a 85% strike rate games 7.yeah ATL can win but they can also lose in a blowout. they lose by 23,19 and 25 the last three times they played boston at home. it seems better i think to take the big points because ATL will need it.
 
great stuff sammy, nice write-up, good luck

it is really a tough bet to make, for me i think id rather take the points

lots of good stuff there and a lot of solid arguements, but there will be a ton of xfactors at home, boston plays way better d at home than on the road (not even close), will marvin williams play? (hawks bench is way too weak, in fact they only have one- childress). how will the hawks play tomorrow, shoot j's or drive at will and take it the rack? another xfactor would be the celts bench and role players, if powe, bigbaby, sammy and kendrick help out on stat areas and doing the dirty work (which they do well at home)

on paper it is easy to say boston takes it all, they blew out the hawks 3 times at home, what makes you think it would be different, i agree w/ you that hawks are the more athletic team but have to disagree that they are the better team, boston has dominated all season long and has dominated at home

i wont tail you w/ the ml play (maybe ill regret it after the game) but i am think hard on taking the points

we really never know in sports betting, dogs can upset favs in any given day

GL sammy :cheers:

btw, i have an off topic question, may i ask where the baseball tips you mentioned a month ago? i thought you were gonna post em in the mlb forum

thanks
 
love the insights in this thread, but you just have to think about who's the better team here? seriously.
if you think that atlanta is just better than boston, then i agree with you, great value on the hawks.
Personally, even after this crappy series i still think Boston is the better team here, expecially on home court. i just can back a team that has lost 3 road games by double digits and goes into a game 7 against experienced guys that owned the regular season and that are trying so hard to win a title.
everything can happen obviously, but i think you should consider taking the points if you love atlanta so much today.

good luck with your play buddy!
 
Lets not get carried away here because you dont agree with Sammy. I'm not going to let this thread snowball into a bashing contest. Lets all just learn to agree to disagree if that's how you feel and move on. :shake:
 
game six was a HUGE game for Boston, don't get it twisted. Yes the home court is huge. Yes Atl is a losing basketball team. Yes Boston will most likely win this game by 10+. BUT...the fact that they have shown an inabillity to win on the road in the easiest series they will face in the entire post season, just goes to show you that Boston is not a championship calibur team. Every once in a while, you watch teams grow up in a trial by fire (so to speak). But the fact of the matter was, Pierce didn't act like he was on the championship team. The Hawks looked like the vets on the court.

Do they have a chance in game 7?

yes, it's deff worth the moneyline to take a shot...the big question is, can they keep it close to the end...I see either a blowout for Boston...or a coin flip if it comes down to the last 2 minutes. This is boston's worst nightmare.
 
Saying that Bibby has outplayed Rondo in this series is a joke, and IMO -- there is no way that you have watched the ENTIRE series if you think that.

Rondo absolutely schooled Bibby in games 1 and 2, and played about even with him until a bit of a clunker in game 6...

The Alien is killing the Celtics no doubt but Rondo is the last guy to blame -- IMO he has been the Celtics best player outside of Garnett.
 
well, 2 things. One, Stern wants Celts/Lakers so you can bet they will get any close calls today and then some. second, the loss of Marvin Williams will be significant. They were playing 7 deep with him and now they go 6 deep. They will wear down. I would say the points could be safer but I give ATL less than 1% chance. I would love to see the Celts lose though being here in NE and having to hear about them being Gods this year. GL sammy
 
the answer to the TITLE question is - NO !
but this series does show (some small way) that DETROIT can beat BOST
 
I think the lottery had a better chance than these Atlanta fools.

The good thing is that losing the ML small was smarter than betting large on the 14.5 thinking that would come into play. They were not even quasi competitive at all.
 
Slug said:
bruins fan wanting the c's to lose??? get out of here
Click to expand...

Yup. Fan of the Bruins but that's the only Boston team. Been a fan since day one and it also helps when you lived with the starting goalie for 2 years in college:cheers:
 
Slug said:
would you like to take back your comments on how bad the C's defense is?
Click to expand...

Guys come on- The Celts beat a team that was 37-45 this season. Their Defense did play better at home I will give them that. THey looked good vs the 8th seeded team that could not play on the road. They still have been exposed. I will give them credit though for todays defensive game, if they could play that way on the road they would be fine.





hey sammy i hope u learned ur lesson


What lesson did I learn? I was not going into a straight bet here for a huge amount. I posted my ticket there it was +1450- it was worth the shot as the points meant nothing, so in the end you lose a lot less going with the Moneyline.

I did not learn any lessons, except for the fact that the Celtics have been exposed and will get a good beating from Detroit and Lebron first.

THe odds of +1450 was not as if this was a +200 that was a sure thing to win.

Also if you guys want to make comments, don't make them after the game when the result is already over.

I learned that it is smart capping, when you can win +1450 off a $100, and have a good chance if the game was closer to hedge out for huge profits at half. Limit the losses and win the big bets, that is the key here. This was a small bet for $100.

Also Celtics have not won anything yet, so this is only first round, so lets step back before crowing them the champs.



<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->__________________

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don't mean to harass you, but comments WERE made before the game. I think you went into this game with the wrong impression of the celtics. They have struggled in Atlanta but the Hawks haven't come winthin single digits of the C's in 6 attempts in Boston this year. They were exposed on the road and that is reason for concern here on out in the playoffs. It was surprising to see becuase they were the best road team in the league in the regular season. I just think that you overreacted to what you saw in Atlanta.
 
I did only watch the games in ATL- But it was not an overreaction-

I cannot say the Celts have a great D yet, becaue in order to have a great D you need RINGS to prove it. One round and a good reg season does not prove anyting. SPURS have a great D as they have the rings to back it up. If the CELTS want to be known as a GREAT D they have to beat Detroit and Cleveland and then win the finals.



Congrats on your team, they definitely came out and kicked the shit out of ATL, and made that moneyline look like a bad line actually.
 
When you play a +1450 moneyline you are going to get games where the favorite does this to the underdog. Home teams wins 80 percent of game sevens someone pointed out ...... hell the celtics could win this 14 out of 15 times and the bet would have value. I have no idea about the value of the bet itself .. maybe the celtics win 19 of 20 and it is a bad bet ... but i do know that coming in and ripping a guy when he plays a +1450 moneyline dog for getting blown out is a bit harsh.

No problem with disagreeing with his assessment of the celtics. But I think it is unfair to bash the play based on the result alone ( one game ).

The play had balls sammy ... win or lose .... you handicapped the game as you saw it and put your money down. Respect that win or lose.

gl the rest of the playoffs.
 
The Celtics are actually suffering of something rather normal, despite being a monster 66-16 in the regular season, they still need a postseason or two to become a monster team capable of going all the way.

Sammy doesn't need to learn any lessons since he only said Atlanta may have a shot, turned out they didn't, Celtics were impressive, and beyond that.

However, to say, without even blinking, that the Celts were simply exposed on the road and that may be a concern, etc...is an understatement.

They were exposed on the road against a 37-45 team. 3 times.

Even though they do have home court throughout the playoffs, they will need to tighten up on the road (at home as well, not everyone will play as mellow as Atlanta in the Garden) since there are teams that have been through ups and downs and have way more experience in situations like this, namely Pistons.

I also have my doubts about Rivers and his coaching when the game is on the line deep in the 4th.

We'll see. Good job Celtics tonight.

Sammy don't worry man, you had a good intention, it was an idea, food for thought, a buyer beware, it perhaps wasn't "spot on" this time but your input is appreciated and valued.
:shake:
 
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