Army vs. Navy Discussion Thread

This is usually an auto under but I don’t recall the total being this low. Both teams give up 22 a game. I teased this down to 15 with Packers +18 tonight, Texas-Washington over 51 and Bama +14.5 vs Michigan
 
wiseplayer said:
This is usually an auto under but I don’t recall the total being this low. Both teams give up 22 a game. I teased this down to 15 with Packers +18 tonight, Texas-Washington over 51 and Bama +14.5 vs Michigan
Click to expand...

Last few years they gradually been creeping down like the damn iowa totals this year! I’ve continued betting the unders, I don’t bother capping them, every year I feel like I urge guys not to try and cap cause the numbers against other teams mean nothing since they both know exactly how to play the other and basically practice against a carbon copy every day! The problem now is this number is really close to where they typically land!

There is another little tidbit now, I don’t wanna fall into the trap of trying to cap these but didn’t these guys both switch up coaches/oc’s and are now running differing variations? Im not sure if it matters but it could make for a bit different dynamic. Outside Af I never watch a minute of these schools, normally don’t have to as I Know exactly what we gonna get. Is it still the same? Or are they running much different variations, or is it the same shit with different window dressing? I really don’t know the answers for that. Typically the reason the under is so easy cause all it takes is maintaining your gap discipline and not allowing big plays. You force them to take 15+ play drives odds on the defenses sides as a mistake is bound to happen that sets the offense behind the chains and they unable to convert, so we get 7-7 min drives that end in 3 or less! Few of those and it night night over. Just not sure if the same?

I hate having to pass cause I love these rare plays no work involved and wins me money practically every year! There only so many of these and it so nice having a stress free no capping lomg term winner!! Maybe the fact they putting it this low is just like the iowa totals, it a tell!! I know I say don’t vap it and I don’t want to but there is this to support the under. Both offenses rank worse than 110th in the country in red zone scoring! Navy d is top 10 in red zone scoring allowed! Army isn’t great but they 80th and facing the navy offense that is 129rh in red zone scoring percentage!! End of the day we know the clock be moving, both teams offenses are also near bottom the country in yards per play so they will be the nice long 15 play drives when they get into the red zone. You get 3-4 of those and they come away w 3 points at the most and we well on our way to the under, I’m just holding my nose and stinking to the plan.

The armed forces unders are much like betting bama, I almost never regret making that play!! I don’t like telling anyone what to do but like I do every year I’ll strongly encourage anyone thinking of betting the over to just pass and take the wife out to a movie or something!!
 
2daBank said:
Last few years they gradually been creeping down like the damn iowa totals this year! I’ve continued betting the unders, I don’t bother capping them, every year I feel like I urge guys not to try and cap cause the numbers against other teams mean nothing since they both know exactly how to play the other and basically practice against a carbon copy every day! The problem now is this number is really close to where they typically land!

There is another little tidbit now, I don’t wanna fall into the trap of trying to cap these but didn’t these guys both switch up coaches/oc’s and are now running differing variations? Im not sure if it matters but it could make for a bit different dynamic. Outside Af I never watch a minute of these schools, normally don’t have to as I Know exactly what we gonna get. Is it still the same? Or are they running much different variations, or is it the same shit with different window dressing? I really don’t know the answers for that. Typically the reason the under is so easy cause all it takes is maintaining your gap discipline and not allowing big plays. You force them to take 15+ play drives odds on the defenses sides as a mistake is bound to happen that sets the offense behind the chains and they unable to convert, so we get 7-7 min drives that end in 3 or less! Few of those and it night night over. Just not sure if the same?

I hate having to pass cause I love these rare plays no work involved and wins me money practically every year! There only so many of these and it so nice having a stress free no capping lomg term winner!! Maybe the fact they putting it this low is just like the iowa totals, it a tell!! I know I say don’t vap it and I don’t want to but there is this to support the under. Both offenses rank worse than 110th in the country in red zone scoring! Navy d is top 10 in red zone scoring allowed! Army isn’t great but they 80th and facing the navy offense that is 129rh in red zone scoring percentage!! End of the day we know the clock be moving, both teams offenses are also near bottom the country in yards per play so they will be the nice long 15 play drives when they get into the red zone. You get 3-4 of those and they come away w 3 points at the most and we well on our way to the under, I’m just holding my nose and stinking to the plan.

The armed forces unders are much like betting bama, I almost never regret making that play!! I don’t like telling anyone what to do but like I do every year I’ll strongly encourage anyone thinking of betting the over to just pass and take the wife out to a movie or something!!
Click to expand...
Good stuff. Both teams played Air Force and both games landed in the 20’s. Army beat them 23-3 with AF’s starting QB out. Navy lost 17-6 vs AF’s starting QB.
If you cap this game based on points scored and given up I see 21-20 score.
It’s the most bizarre game in all of sports when you talk about the pregame pageantry and the actual game itself. It’s almost like this game needs to be the 1st game of a doubleheader because of the 3 hours of running.
 
does anyone have something I can read on this game...like who has played more bowl teams or winning record teams and how have they done; I need to read some analysis to try and make a decision. I have none of my own knowledge here
 
I saw all 5 gameday pickers were on Navy. Corso and Belichick were a given. Howard has a Navy friend and I Herbstriet liked Navy because of starting field position and turnovers and I forget why McAfee said. All 5 on Navy, like it's that easy?
 
wiseplayer said:
Good stuff. Both teams played Air Force and both games landed in the 20’s. Army beat them 23-3 with AF’s starting QB out. Navy lost 17-6 vs AF’s starting QB.
If you cap this game based on points scored and given up I see 21-20 score.
It’s the most bizarre game in all of sports when you talk about the pregame pageantry and the actual game itself. It’s almost like this game needs to be the 1st game of a doubleheader because of the 3 hours of running.
Click to expand...

AF QB was more of a decoy in that one... he wasn't at 100%.
 
Obviously both teams can run, but Navy ranks 28th in rush defense, while Army ranks 113th. Neither team can pass much & Navy has a significantly better turnover ratio at +13 compared to -5 for Army. Also, both teams have excellent red zone defenses (3rd & 24th) & terrible red zone offenses (127th & 100th).
 
Let's see how the sheets do:

Winning Points - Army over Navy by 7 (Foxborough, MA)
Navy has had a week off to lick their wounds after a thumping by SMU that could
have been far worse had the Mustangs. Army meanwhile righted their ship down
the stretch, winning three straight, including against Air Force, after previously
dropping five straight. The Commander-in- Chief ’s trophy is in play for the Black
Knights, while it’s just pride for the Midshipmen. We know exactly what we’re
going to get here; low scoring, heavy, heavy rushing and occasional shot plays
in the passing attack that are often unsuccessful as neither team has a 20-catch
receiver. But we find Army to have advantages in two key spots; quarterback and
kicker. Army QB Bryson Daily is the team’s leading passer and rusher, while Navy
has no clue under center, playing three different options, all of which left the last
game with health concerns. Army kicker Quinn Maretzki is 23-for-23 on PATs
and 11-for-13 on FGs, while Navy has rotated kickers to go 22-for-23 on PATs by
just 7-for-13 on FGs. In a game with so few points expected, we’ll happily back
the better quarterback situation, and the staff that’s willing to attempt three-point
tries. ARMY 21-14.
Click to expand...

Inside the Pressbox - A storied rivalry started in 1890, Navy leads the series 62-54-7. Army has a chance to reclaim the
Commander-In-Chief Trophy with a win. The Black Knights have won 5 of the last 7 meetings including
last year 20-17 (+3) in OT. Both teams enter 5-6 but neither will play in a bowl. Navy started out 1-3
then won four out of six games before getting crushed at SMU a few weeks ago. Navy lost to Air Force
earlier this year 17-6 (+10’), getting outgained 288-124. They average just 299 ypg with four different
QB’s seeing considerable action this year. Brandon Woodson ran for 104 yards and threw for 71 at SMU
a few weeks ago. RB Alex Tecza averages 6.2 ypc (724 yds). Defensively the Middies allow 362 ypg
and hold foes 32 ypg below their avg (#37 in FBS). Their front 7 is their strength, allowing 122 rush ypg

(3.6) and they have 62 tfl’s including 26.5 sacks. Navy is 4-7 ATS this year but three of their non-
covers were as double-digit dogs and they are only +3 here. Army enters on a 3 game winning streak

but they haven’t played in three weeks. They pulled upsets over Air Force and Coastal Carolina. Against
Air Force they were 18’ point dogs but jumped out to a 20-0 2Q lead. AF was actually -6 yds and -8
FD’s in the game but forced 6 TO’s, 2 SOD’s and a missed fg en route to a 23-3 upset win. Two of
Army’s five wins have come over FCS foes but they also beat UTSA and three of their losses have come
against Power-5 foes. The Black Knights have a slight edge on offense, avg 317 ypg. Their defense
allows 371 ypg and holds foes 15 ypg below their avg. Army has the offensive edge, coaching edge, ST
edge (#36 vs #78) and schedule edge (#91 vs #109). Navy has the edge on defense and an intangible
edge as the underdog is 21-4 ATS in Service Academy games since 2017. The Under had cashed in 16
straight until last year, which only lost because of overtime. Death, taxes and Service Academy games
going under used to be the only guarantees in life but the Total has gone down nearly every year since
’14 when it was at 56! Last year it was 32, and that was absurdly low, but now it’s 27’. I’ll ride with the
series trend and call for a low scoring game but this is no longer the guaranteed win that it was just a
few years ago. AGG says Army by 1.9 and L4W says Army by 0.8 but my computer has Army by 5.8. I
anticipate another close game and will call for Army to squeak out a 2 point win. Army 12 - Navy 10
Click to expand...

Power Sweep -
A storied rivalry started in 1890, Navy leads the series 62-54-7.
Army has a chance to reclaim the Commander-In-Chief Trophy
with a win. The Black Knights have won 5 of the last 7 meetings
including LY 20-17 (+3) in OT. Five of the L/7 mtgs have been
decided by 7 points or less. Both teams enter 5-6 but neither will
goto a bowl. This is a series of trends, with the underdog 21-4
ATS since ‘17 including Army’s 23-3 win over Air Force as 18’ pt
dogs! The under had cashed 16 straight and only went over last
year because of overtime.
The Middies started the season 1-3 then won four out of six
games before getting crushed at SMU a few weeks ago. Navy lost
to Air Force earlier this year 17-6 (+10’), getting outgained 288-
124. They average just 299 ypg with four different QB’s seeing
considerable action this year. RB Alex Tecza averages 6.2 ypc
(724 yds). Defensively the Middies allow 362 ypg and hold foes
32 ypg below their avg (#37 in FBS). Their front 7 is their strength,
allowing 122 rush ypg (3.6) and they have 62 tfl’s including 26.5
sacks. Navy is 4-7 ATS this year but three of their non-covers
were as double-digit dogs.
Army hasn’t played a game in three weeks. They enter on a 3
game winning streak, with two coming in outright upsets over Air
Force and Coastal Carolina. Two of Army’s five wins have come
over FCS foes but they also beat UTSA and three of their losses
have come against Power-5 foes. The Black Knights have a slight
edge on offense, avg 317 ypg. Their defense allows 371 ypg and
holds foes 15 ypg below their avg. Army has the stronger pass
D (#96 vs #116), the coaching edge, ST edge (#36 vs #78) and
schedule edge (#91 vs #109).
Army has the edge on offense while Navy has the edge on
defense. Our checklist favors Army by less than a fg so we will
follow the series trend and take the underdog.
FORECAST: Navy by 3 RATING: 2*
Click to expand...

Pointwise -
Navy 22 - Army 19 - (3:00 - CBS- @ Annapolis, MD) -- As you know, each year,
we open this analysis with a salute to those who moved this classic to this date,
affording these combatants the proper respect & attention they so richly deserve,
especially after being pretty much ignored, as just another contest on the weekly
slate. The Middies owned the Cadets, with a 14-game winning steak ('02 thru
'15), but the Knights have gone 5-2 SU (4-3 ATS) since, & the series dog is on a
7-2 spread run, with final SU margins of 7, 4, 4, 1, 7, 4, & 3 pts in 7 of their last 9,
including a year ago, when they went into OT, after the Cadets tied it 10-10, in the
final 1:53, & winning 20-17, despite a 259-125 RY deficit. Navy, Army, & AirForce
are perennial overland leaders, but TY has seen a change, with Knights at 9th in
rushing, & 115th in total "O", while Mids are 13th in rushing, & 124th in total "O".
Click to expand...

Marc Lawrence - College Football 12/9

UNDER THE TOTAL

Yes, this is a standard call
on these pages every
year, and why not. The
last nine games involving
military teams have seen the
contests play to an average
total of 26 points per game,
while the last six games in this
series have averaged 29 total
points per game. We realize
this is the lowest total in this
game in memory, but it’s there
for a reason. Army ranks No.
2 in the nation in overall rush
offense at 276 RYPG, while
Navy is not far behind at 200
RYPG. The Midshipmen have
averaged 14.6 PPG away from
Annapolis this season, while
the Black Knights average
19.0 PPG away from West
Point. You know the rule: live
by the rush, die by the rush.
After all, it’s the military way.
Click to expand...

Playbook -
Navy over Army by 3

“In New England, we value history, honor, tradition, and celebrate
sports rivalries. That’s why we are so thrilled for the opportunity
to host America’s Game at Gillette Stadium in 2023.” With those
words, New England Patriots’ owner Robert Kraft announced
that Army and Navy would bring down the curtain on another
college football regular season with their very fi rst appearance
in Foxborough, Massachusetts. “I can tell you that the ticket
demand for this game is greater than any AFC Championship
Game that we’ve hosted here, greater than Taylor Swift, greater
than anything else we’ve ever seen,” Kraft said. Let that sink
in before considering this afternoon’s contest pits a pair of 5-6
teams with nowhere to go after today. Only Navy can become
bowl eligible as a pair of Army’s wins have come against two
FCS teams, but all of the bids will be locked up before this game
kicks off. However, there is something important to play for: the
Commander-In-Chief’s Trophy. Since 1972, it has been awarded
to the winner of the Air Force, Army and Navy games, and the
Black Knights can win their 10th trophy of the series by beating
Navy. Conspicuously absent today will be former Navy head coach
Ken Niumatalolo, who was released in 2022 after 15 seasons at
Annapolis. The Midshipmen were 10-5 against Army West Point
under his leadership with six Commander-In-Chief’s Trophy wins
and the most victories of any coach in school history. Ten-year
Army head coach Jeff Monken held his own against Niumatalolo,
winning 5 out of nine meetings, so it will be interesting to see
how he prepares for new Navy coach Brian Newberry. ESPN is
certainly interested, as College GameDay will be in attendance,
(where else would they be today?) though they’ll probably spend
more time discussing Florida State’s snub by the CFP committee
than today’s clash. And honestly, these games have become
snooze-fests of late with the last nine contests averaging just 27.3

total points per game – which is why we’re looking at an Iowa-
like total of 28 points for this matchup. As usual, both rushing

offenses are highly ranked nationally with Army No. 9 and Navy
No. 13, but this season each squad has aired it out more often
than past editions, Army averaging 107 aerial yards per game
compared to Navy’s 99 YPG. So where do we go from here? When
the ground troops marched to a 20-17 overtime win in this rivalry
last year, it moved the revenge-meter to 10-2 ATS in favor of
the avenger the last dozen meetings in this series. In fact, the
Swabbies are 14-7-1 ATS since 1999 when looking to avenge a
military loss, including 10-1-1 ATS as a dog of 16 or fewer points.
But the bottom line is neither team holds much of an edge today,
and with it we’ll rely on the old military standby – revenge – as
Navy proves once again that it’s a dish best served cold. In the
124th installment of this service academy showdown, we suggest
you grab the points and join the Beach Boys on the Sloop John B.
Click to expand...

Gridiron Gold -
Army - 21⁄2 Over Navy by 7 & Over 28 by 7

The Army Black Knights will take on the Navy Midshipmen in the annual Army-Navy game in
Gillette Stadium. This game is one of the most traditional rivalries in college football and has
been televised nationally every year since 1945.
Over the last ten years, the Army and Navy have split with five wins each. However, the Army
has won five of the previous seven games.
The Black Knights stunned Navy last year, earning a 20-17 win in overtime as a 2.5-point
underdog.
The Navy Midshipmen were onto their fourth quarterback last week against SMU. Braxton
Woodson got the start against the Mustangs on November 25. He struggled throwing the
football, with only nine completions on 18 attempts. He also had an interception. However, he
still ran for 104 yards on 18 carries, averaging 5.8 yards a carry. But that was off of one run
that went for 69 yards. So that inflated his stats.
Luckily for the Navy, it sounds like their other two quarterbacks, Tai Lavatai and Xavier Arline,
will be available and active for the Midshipmen in this game. Lavatai and Arline are both
seniors with plenty of experience. And not just experience in college football but also
experience playing in this game against the Army. It's likely both get reps in this game.
Navy has averaged 18.27 points per game, with 200.45 yards on the ground. The
Midshipmen have also added 89 yards passing. But they've had to go through many different
quarterbacks this season. Having their two seniors on the field for this game will be beneficial.
Navy might want to add some wrinkles into the passing game, especially with the Army's
inability to rush the passer.
Meanwhile, Army last played on November 18. Bryson Daily is the starting quarterback. He's
a junior who rarely throws the ball. Daily, instead, has 188 carries for 817 yards, averaging 4.3
yards a carry. For example, Army last knocked off Coastal Carolina and attempted only two
passes in that game. The Black Knights won, 28-21, with 62 carries for 365 yards. They
averaged 5.9 yards per carry. With the Navy allowing 121.91 yards per game on the ground,
the Army might not have as much success on the ground.
This game is expected to be a low-scoring one. However, the Navy probably has a broader
playbook with more throwing plays. That's the difference, knowing Army's serious inability to
get to the quarterback.
So far, the Navy Midshipmen are 5-6, including going 1-4 on the road and 3-2 at home.

Heading into this week’s matchup with Army, the Midshipmen have been favored in five
games and the underdog in five. Their ATS mark coming into the game is 4-5-1.
Navy has an over/under record of 4-6 so far this season. On average their games have
combined for 41.2 points with the average over/under line being 46.5 points.
As they prepare to face the Army, the Midshipmen’s offense is averaging 201.7 rushing yards
per game and 4 yards per attempt. Nationally, they are 38th in rushing yards and 130th in
passing yards, on an average of 99 yards per matchup. Navy has averaged 18.3 points per
game so far. This figure places them 101st in the nation.
Navy’s defense sits at 72nd for points allowed, allowing 22.9 points per game. So far, teams
have been averaging 240.4 passing yards per game against them (123rd nationally). On the
ground, they’re yielding 124.4 rushing yards, ranking them 44th in college football.
So far, the Army Black Knights are 5-6, including going 2-3 on the road and 2-3 at home.
Heading into this week’s matchup with Navy, the Black Knights have been favored in four
games and the underdog in six. Their ATS mark coming into the game is 5-5.
In 11 games played, the average over/under line for Army’s games has been set at 45.4
points. These contests have seen an average combined score of 42.8 points, resulting in an
OU record of 5-5.
On offense, the Black Knights come in with the 98th ranked offense in terms of passing
attempts and are averaging 107.3 passing yards per game. In the running game, they are 7th
in terms of attempts.
On defense, Army comes into the game ranked 169th in passing yards per game. Opponents
are throwing the ball an average of 25.5 times per contest vs. the Black Knights. Overall, they
are giving up 22 points per game, which is 68th in college football. Against the run, they are
142nd in the NCAA in rushing yards allowed.
OK, l have to tell you that I pick the same team in this game every year. Why, because my
MOS is 11 Bravo and I'm a Viet-Nam veteran. In pure barney style, my brothers, I got your
six. Balls to the wall cadets. HOOAH! HOOAH! GO ARMY, BEAT NAVY! ARMY + OVER.
Projected Score: Army 21, Navy 14
Click to expand...
 
KJ said:
National security has been compromised
Click to expand...

Every year my wife says "Army and Navy should be good, they should have the best athletes, I don't like that they aren't good teams" my reply is along the lines, well it's not the 1940s, 50s or 60s anymore and those best athletes now go to get paid not serve America interests and our defense now. I never was selfless enough to offer my commitment to the military, in a way that makes me respect those who do more. I would be awesome if Will Anderson and Bijan Robinson and those guys went to service academies and played football for Army, Navy, Air Force (or Merchant Marine or Coast Guard - yes they have football teams!), that is just not where America is. Capitalism over Patriotism.
 
s--k said:
Every year my wife says "Army and Navy should be good, they should have the best athletes, I don't like that they aren't good teams" my reply is along the lines, well it's not the 1940s, 50s or 60s anymore and those best athletes now go to get paid not serve America interests and our defense now. I never was selfless enough to offer my commitment to the military, in a way that makes me respect those who do more. I would be awesome if Will Anderson and Bijan Robinson and those guys went to service academies and played football for Army, Navy, Air Force (or Merchant Marine or Coast Guard - yes they have football teams!), that is just not where America is. Capitalism over Patriotism.
Click to expand...
Capitalism equals patriotism mate

That's our story and we're sticking to it

If I said the definition of patriotism has been compromised I'd feel a little dirty but wouldn't shower, hippie style
 
KJ said:
Capitalism equals patriotism mate
Click to expand...

Only when economic interests align with national interests. The actions of various US corporations and various individuals in positions of power frequently serve as examples to the contrary, but we can save that for another time and place.
 
Do that on a Saturday night when people are three sheets, winning or losing

You gonna get politics where no one wins and we type in ALL CAPS
 
Admit I still have to put readers on to make sure I understand what's been said
 
VirginiaCavs said:
You‘re better than me. I need readers and have glasses but i‘m always too stubborn to put them on
Click to expand...
I have at least 8 pair around this place because I lost them and went to a store without them...so I couldn't read wtf I was buying unless I had readers so I bought another pair

This eyesight thing blows, probably started at 45 or so. Colonoscopy and vision, it's going quick these days young fellas! Enjoy the ride!
 
KJ said:
I have at least 8 pair around this place because I lost them and went to a store without them...so I couldn't read wtf I was buying unless I had readers so I bought another pair

This eyesight thing blows, probably started at 45 or so. Colonoscopy and vision, it's going quick these days young fellas! Enjoy the ride!
Click to expand...
Colonoscopy has to be the worst thing about growing up. Yeah glasses cost money but man so does a colonoscopy too lol
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Colonoscopy has to be the worst thing about growing up. Yeah glasses cost money but man so does a colonoscopy too lol
Click to expand...
Not a big deal because you're under but w/o insurance it would have run $7300 and I was 46. Man insurance is vital. Still dealing with the results 2.5 years later but at least it's manageable. Can't imagine the alternative.
 
I haven't bought readers yet because they are made in China ... if I can do without it, I try and do without it. At least all my sun glasses are made/assembled in the USA. Have a meeting with the colonoscopy doctor February. We're old
 
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