Army-Navy Game Discussion Thread

[VirginiaCavs]

Dec 10 Sat 2022

02:00 PM
103	Navy	+1½ -110		O 34 -108
104	Army +1 Markets	-1½ -110		U 34 -112

 

[Zeke]

Has always been an auto-under play but I never recall it opening this low.

 

[CPA-hole]

6 of the last 10 would've went under the 34 total last 10 years including the last 2.

 

[KJ]

6 of the last 10 would've went under the 34 total last 10 years including the last 2.

And this is the first time I remember that neither team offers anything offensively

So naturally it will go over but bet it closes 32/32.5

 

[CPA-hole]

And this is the first time I remember that neither team offers anything offensively

So naturally it will go over but bet it closes 32/32.5

That's what I think. I think if you are going to play the under, bet it now.

 

[Marsski]

Is this the year to finally play over? If it gets down to 31 it might be time...

 

[RetroVK]

My favorite game of the year. Hoping for 2-0

 

[bookieassassin]

1H OVER might work ? at BO 14' (-120)
>> both are stronger on O 1H / weaker on D

Navy 1H/2H
* O 4.7/rush > 3.4
* D 3.4 > 2.8

Army
* O 5.8 > 5.3
* D 5.5 ! > 4.7

 

[EL CAPO]

Has always been an auto-under play but I never recall it opening this low.

Used to be rare to see totals under 40....seen enough 30s this year I might need more then 2 hands to count them.

And this is from last year to this year I've noticed the change

Might be in range of 15 to 20 games in 30s this year and 1 last year which was army navy......would be curious of the actual stats but as an under player I have noticed very much.....shoot Dan Diego state used to always be 46 or 44 worst even tho they went under every game...would of been 38 this year I swear

 

[Wolfeman]

Ditto on its a “Must watch” game every year for me.

 

[wiseplayer]

Both of these offenses average scoring in the 20’s & both defenses give up over 20. Army rush D ranks 115 while Navy rush O ranks 7.
This game is screaming 16-13 or 17-14 with a chance to go over at the end

 

[bookieassassin]

6 of the last 10 would've went under the 34 total last 10 years including the last 2.

64% of the last 50 or so - would have gone OVER the current total

 

[EL CAPO]

Both of these offenses average scoring in the 20’s & both defenses give up over 20. Army rush D ranks 115 while Navy rush O ranks 7.
This game is screaming 16-13 or 17-14 with a chance to go over at the end

Isn't navy the play here with the much better d ?

 

[wiseplayer]

Isn't navy the play here with the much better d ?

Navy is now -2.5 and 32.5. I would 13pt tease this kind of game and wrap it into the NFL. I think over 20 is the way to go.

 

[2daBank]

Put this In bowl thread cause didn’t see this one..

These fuckers might have finally set a army/navy total I can’t bet under! I been banging the armed forces games under for long as I been here, every year I tell everyone don’t let the number scare you, don’t try to cap it, just bet the under and cash. I still want to play it, let me rephrase, they finally set a total that scares me, not one I can’t bet! Lol. Forget all stats and scores all year, the only game they both played that important to me was Air Force, navy lost to AF 13-10, army lost to AF 7-13!! So yea, under 33 is scary, I’d love to have gotten 35 at least (what I figured it be) but far from outrageous.

Navy appears to be the better team to me, they have actually beaten some solid teams this year while army only has 3 d1 wins and those came against 3 teams ranked in the 100s! Navy run d ranks much better than army but army saving grace may be they are very good keeping teams out the endzone when they get into the red zone and navy ranks 111th at this. Gotta expect navy has some better drives and do a lot the clock killing for us but then they have to settle for Fgs which perfect for the under but also gives army a path to stealing this game. Army is gonna need to hit a big strike as I don’t think they will be able to drive the field w the option on this navy run d.

Another thing I like to do on top of betting the under straight is to do a 6 point teaser. It would obviously make more sense to tease army up to +7.5 obviously w the under 39, as long as army can hold navy to fgs this could cash but it hard to ignore navy playing and beating the better teams. I hate teasing across 0, almost never do it but +4.5 w navy doesn’t sound bad either. Of the last 11 meetings only 3 been decided by more than 7, obviously a reason to tease army, 5 of them have been decided by 4 or less, the fav has only covered 3 of them but all 3 cases the tease wouldn’t have mattered but those were much bigger spreads where 1 team was clearly better, the dog has covered every spread of 7 or less so again makes me think moving army to +7.5 the way to go. The question is army ability to get red zone stops negate the fact navy run game will prob have more success? Army also has the better kicker so when army does force navy into a fg try they only connecting on 66% of them which 102nd in the country.

Sounds like I’m gonna once again be on the under 33 despite the crazy low total, until I get beat a few times I can’t get off a play that has cashed 16x in a row no matter where they put the total! The games vs AF give me confidence they more than capable of keeping this in the 20s! I lean to army+7.5 and under 39 on the teaser but I could be talked off of that.

 

[2daBank]

Has always been an auto-under play but I never recall it opening this low.

35 last year and that was the lowest up to that point I believe. Still think ya gotta suck it up and play the under. The only 2 games that I think have relevance were both teams games against AF. Navy lost 10-13, army lost 7-13, 33 doesn’t scare me!!! I think navy will prob have more success moving the ball as army run d hasn’t been real strong but army has been really good holding teams to fg tries in the red zone, counting on navy to give us some nice long 15 play 7-8 min drives that end in 3 or nothing at all considering they have had woes in their kicking game! Army gonna have to hit a few chunk plays to score as I don’t think they will be able to methodically drive the field.

Slight lean to navy as they have beaten a few solid teams while army wins have come against a couple d2 schools and 3 wins vs teams ranked in the 100s! Although the dog has done very well in this game, especially when the spread less than a td! I like a army +7.5 and under 39 teaser to go along with just playing under 33 straight! Every year I see guys try to justify reasons to play the over and every year this game goes under! 16x in a row to be exact! Why waste time capping it or stressing it? Just hit the under and know you made the right bet!! Sure it could lose but I’m riding it till the wheels fall off as another 17-13 type game seems incredibly likely to me!!

 

[Wolfeman]

Army +3 (reached too many imo)
16-14 Navy

 

[Zeke]

Both of these offenses average scoring in the 20’s & both defenses give up over 20. Army rush D ranks 115 while Navy rush O ranks 7.
This game is screaming 16-13 or 17-14 with a chance to go over at the end

This is my thinking too. One turnover or short field could blow this up. Takes a perfect game to stay under & we're getting a discount on the over based strictly on past results versus stats. Waiting to see if the hook drops from the 32 then hitting over.

 

[Frank Costanza]

I didn't realize the game was moving around starting next year to Foxboro, then to other cities (DC, NYC, couple others I think).

Always tune in a little early to the game. CBS does a great job with the intro.

 

[KJ]

Low 40s, mild wind, no rain

Seems like perfect weather for this one

 

[emg2525]

This thread is a degenerate’s paradise every year. Trying to “break down” one of the safest bets in all of sports, if there is such a thing (there isn’t).

If the game finishes 13-9, nobody will be surprised. If the game finishes 28-23, most of us will be surprised.

Same logic should apply every year for this game - play the under or stay away.

Good luck to you brave souls on the over.

 

[Timh]

This game always defies handicapping logic with the total, because you have two option offenses going against each other and the result is a tremendously lower amount of plays are run in the game. Traditional handicapping in this game, you would think these teams would run 125-130 plays but if you look at the last five years going back to 2017 they have run 103, 96, 109, 113 and 98 plays. 32.5 is a crazy total but could go under especially without a big TO play.

 

[CPA-hole]

Fwiw the last 5 times the Commander in Chief wasn't on the line in this game, the total never hit more than 30.

 

[MikeU]

I teased Navy and Over with Bengals and Chiefs...If I cant get over 20 pts in a game and the Broncos beat the Chiefs, bury me.

 

[bones]

Army defense going to tire after that 1st qtr...on the field about 13.5 minutes

 

[inZane]

Wow!

 

[bones]

completely late/unnecessary block in back on Army during the TD which was called back