Are we seeing fad or beginnings of a new approach?

tipyerbartender said:
You see, you guys want baserunners ahead of Miggy. I just want baserunners. My approach puts more pressure on the defense. When I'm in the defensive dugout, only thing that scares me is a tough out at the plate.
Click to expand...

But you want guys on base for inferior hitters to be at the plate, which would negate the fear/pressure you're trying to put on the opposition.

You shouldn't just want baserunners either, you should want runs. You don't win games with baserunners.
 
We'll bump the thread next time Andy Dirks ends a close game with a tap-out to 2nd.
 
Guys on base score at a higher rate than guys at the plate.
 
You guys should pick up "The Book - playing the percentages in baseball". There's a whole chapter devoted to lineups.
 
the reason why you don't want your best hitter (i.e Votto) up 1st is you want to maximize at bats, but also maximize those at bats with a runner on

Votto may get 16-20 more at bats a year batting 1st than he would batting 2nd, the leadoff hitter hits with a runner on 36% of the time vs 44% for the 2 hole

so for example over a season

Choo 610 ABs (219 ABs with runner(s) on)
Votto 590 ABs (259 ABs with runner(s) on)

those extra 40 ABs with a runner on are much more valuable than just 20 extra plate appearances

1. Highest OBP but little power
2. Best all around hitter (Votto/Miggy/Trout etc.)
 
and the reason why those extra ABs with runners on are more valuable

last years runs expectency chart

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Votto's a National Leauger. If my pitcher can't hit, I bat Votto 2nd. But I got no prob batting Miggy 1st behind Infante.
 
guaranteeed said:
and the reason why those extra ABs with runners on are more valuable

last years runs expectency chart

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Click to expand...

And this pretty much dismissed Tip's "zero mathematical reason not to bat your order in descending ability" argument.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
That would be "zero mathematical reason to NOT bat ..." Etc. Take out the National League and give me a 9 hitter with a pulse, I'm not so sure I'm dismissed.
 
tipyerbartender said:
That would be "zero mathematical reason to NOT bat ..." Etc. Take out the National League and give me a 9 hitter with a pulse, I'm not so sure I'm dismissed.
Click to expand...

But it's a mathematical reason to bat your better hitters behind guys who get on base, not in descending order of how good they are. Your example, first of all, would mean that you'd have to wait until the 9 hitter got on for your leadoff hitter to come up with a man on base. So, just using your logic, his first AB of the game would be completely meaningless because it's impossible for that '9 hitter with a pulse' to be on base in the 1st inning.

More men on base for your better hitters, the more runs you score, it's pretty simple. The higher OBP of your guy(s) at the top, the more chances you'll have with men on base and your better (best) hitters at the plate.

I fixed your quote in my original post too, thanks for the heads up.
 
My 9 hitter with a pulse is for the rest of the game. My best hitter getting the most at bats is for getting pitchers in trouble more often.
 
tipyerbartender said:
My 9 hitter with a pulse is for the rest of the game. My best hitter getting the most at bats is for getting pitchers in trouble more often.
Click to expand...

But your opinion has been statistically counter pointed on more than one occasion. You also said there is no mathematical reason, when it's clear there are more than a few mathematical reasons.
 
For my approach to have been dismissed or "counter-pointed", we're going to have to see it tried first. Vince Lombardi didn't often use 4th down aggressively. He's in the Hall of Fame, but 50 years later, now we all know better.

Who can say what a hitter like Miggy on deck does for the OBP of the hitter you have at 9 (the rest of the game). I daresay his presence enhances the previous hitter's OBP.

I can't say my approach is right, I can say it has worked. At some point, for me, definitely getting more at bats out of your best hitters trumps maybe getting your best hitters up with guys on base. Again, I want runners on base because that leads to crooked numbers. Probably depends on the strength of the bottom third of your order. But setting up your line-up based on one inning, one known and eight unknowns, doesn't make sense to me.
 
hugh613 said:
So the mid-90's Indians, you would have Belle or Ramirez leading off?
Click to expand...

Lofton was the best hitter on the team. What'd Manny bat, 7th? That was too low, but he was young and Grover was trying to take the pressure off the brainiac.

In all seriousness, that was a pretty special line-up. Due to Lofton's unique skill set, I would have bat him first. He was Ricky Hendersonesque, the whole package. I would have hit Belle second, not Vizquel. And that team didn't have a slappy at 9.
 
you do realize that the difference in at bat totals between the leadoff hitter and the 3 hole hitter throughout a season are minimal......I get the point of batting your best hitter first or 2nd, but batting 1st 2nd or 3rd he will still get 4-5 at bats a game, almost always the same amount as the lead off hitter.....Therefore, I would want my best hitter to have the better hitters(batters 1-2) in front of him as opposed to having the teams worse hitters (batters 7-8-9).....although late in the game your pitcher is going to get pinch hit for so there is at least 1 at bat where a decent hitter should get an at bat in front of your best hitter if you batted him lead off.....

I dont think I would ever bat my best hitter first....I could see batting him 2nd....I could live with that....
 
tipyerbartender said:
You see, you guys want baserunners ahead of Miggy. I just want baserunners. My approach puts more pressure on the defense. When I'm in the defensive dugout, only thing that scares me is a tough out at the plate.
Click to expand...

Baserunners are hell for me watching the game so I can only imagine what it's like for a pitcher who has to go into the stretch. Besides our earlier squawk about the Tribe, I completely agree there tip.

my best hitter I'm putting #3 every time, 2nd best will leadoff and a guy who can handle the bat would hit 2nd. I just want to be able to get as many guys on 3rd base with less than two out as possible.

i know it's anti-saber but I'm not gonna look for big innings. Simply trying to get a straight line up on the scoreboard each inning cuz if I score in more innings than I don't that's 5 runs and you're not missing the playoffs averaging 5.0 rpg
 
Dusty Baker has ruined the game of baseball for me. I can't take it anymore honestly. Having to watch this guy daily isn't something I can even aptly describe. And the worst part is he wins everywhere he goes.
 
but there has to be a reason MLB managers don't put their lineups out there like that.
Click to expand...
Not arguing for or against any particular lineup but one reason that MLB managers do this is because it is how it is done. If you go unconventional and lose it hurts your job security more than if you do it by the "book". For the same reason, I believe a lot of NFL coaches were reluctant to go for it on fourth down as much as they should because for a long time punting was safer in the post-game press conference.
 
JumpOnBoard said:
Dusty Baker has ruined the game of baseball for me. I can't take it anymore honestly. Having to watch this guy daily isn't something I can even aptly describe. And the worst part is he wins everywhere he goes.
Click to expand...
Perhaps for all of his intellectual failings, his people skills are good enough that the guys play hard for him? About the only thing I can come up with other than just plain lucky.
 
GWarner27 said:
Baserunners are hell for me watching the game so I can only imagine what it's like for a pitcher who has to go into the stretch. Besides our earlier squawk about the Tribe, I completely agree there tip.

my best hitter I'm putting #3 every time, 2nd best will leadoff and a guy who can handle the bat would hit 2nd. I just want to be able to get as many guys on 3rd base with less than two out as possible.

i know it's anti-saber but I'm not gonna look for big innings. Simply trying to get a straight line up on the scoreboard each inning cuz if I score in more innings than I don't that's 5 runs and you're not missing the playoffs averaging 5.0 rpg
Click to expand...
So lead off guy gets on you advocate bunting him over with your #2 guy? Dumb.
 
I don't understand how ppl can be admittedly anti-sabre. You're seeing proof right in front of your eyes and refuse it to go with the way things are because that's the way things are. Pretty silly
 
Think we've talked bunting in the past around here. I frown on that too, very few scenarios invite intentional outs.
 
My favorite moment of the Tribe season was when Yan Gomes failed twice to get his bunt down in the bottom of the ninth, down two, and then hit a three-run bomb to win the game. (Also seems like a decade ago with this team.)
 
VK said:
Not arguing for or against any particular lineup but one reason that MLB managers do this is because it is how it is done. If you go unconventional and lose it hurts your job security more than if you do it by the "book". For the same reason, I believe a lot of NFL coaches were reluctant to go for it on fourth down as much as they should because for a long time punting was safer in the post-game press conference.
Click to expand...

Agreed. The on-field management is largely lazy and "in the box", not just the stuff exposed in Moneyball.
 
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[TD="align: right"].242[/TD]
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This is from June 9, 1995. Manny batted 6th, Thome batted 8th. WTF is with Omar in the #2 hole?

3 HOF - Murray, Winfield (though admittedly way past his prime), and almost certainly Thome.
Belle and Man-Ram with out of this world talent and Lofton was amazing leadoff hitter.
 
tipyerbartender said:
For my approach to have been dismissed or "counter-pointed", we're going to have to see it tried first. Vince Lombardi didn't often use 4th down aggressively. He's in the Hall of Fame, but 50 years later, now we all know better.

Who can say what a hitter like Miggy on deck does for the OBP of the hitter you have at 9 (the rest of the game). I daresay his presence enhances the previous hitter's OBP.

I can't say my approach is right, I can say it has worked. At some point, for me, definitely getting more at bats out of your best hitters trumps maybe getting your best hitters up with guys on base. Again, I want runners on base because that leads to crooked numbers. Probably depends on the strength of the bottom third of your order. But setting up your line-up based on one inning, one known and eight unknowns, doesn't make sense to me.
Click to expand...
Ichiro was the Mariners best hitter for over a decade, a stretch which saw them near the bottom of almost every offensive category...
 
Think Alomar, Jr. and Paul Sorrento often batted 8th/9th that year, it was a hell of a line-up. Pena was kind of running on fumes, but he sure clubbed a biggie in the ALDS.
 
(Forgot to "quote" this response, a reply to hugh, obviously.)

That's kind of trying it by default though, as Ichiro was regarded as a prototypical leadoff hitter. (And I would agree, a good one.) He can't drive himself in, unless he hits it over the wall or steals home.
 
the run expectancy chart is pretty cool.

One runner on base
.8577 - runner on 1st and no out
.5115 - runner on 1st and 1 out (ie, 2nd batter not able to advance runner)
or if you can move the runner..
.6551 - runner on 2nd and 1 out

That's about a 27% difference (.6551 is approx 127% of .5115) in scoring a run by moving the runner over to 2nd via a bunt or productive out.

1 non productive out...costs you about 40% (going from .85 to .51) on a runner at 1st with no out versus a runner at 1st and 1 out.



Also, how about two runners on?
1.4423 - runners on 1st and 2nd with no out
.9036 - runners on 1st and 2nd with one out (no advancement of runners)
if you move the runners...
1.2898 - runners on 2nd and 3rd with one out (via bunt or productive out)

That's about a 42% difference (1.28 is 142% of .90) in scoring a run by moving the runners over via a bunt or productive out.

1 non productive out costs you 37% (going from 1.44 to .90) on a runners at 1st and 2nd with no out versus runners at 1st and 2nd with 1 out.

There is certainly an argument to be made that you should bunt to increase your chances of scoring. However, I absolutely hate when the pitcher is struggling, gives up a hit and walk (no where near the plate) and you have the next batter bunt (giving up an out vs. a struggling pitcher). I think you should keep the pressure on the pitcher and let the next guy up swing away.

Productive outs are highly underrated and should be applauded more, they help just as much as a bunt.
 
I just don't like giving up outs. To me, this is akin to willfully giving up time or downs in football, or time or possessions in basketball. Just willfully putting a limit on your limitless scoring opportunity, and letting your opponent breathe a sigh of relief. There's a time and place to sacrifice a guy into scoring position (say, tie game in the home half of the last inning). But I'm with Earl Weaver. Play for one run, that's all you'll get. I'll play for one run when all I want or need is one run.
 
tipyerbartender said:
I just don't like giving up outs. To me, this is akin to willfully giving up time or downs in football, or time or possessions in basketball. Just willfully putting a limit on your limitless scoring opportunity, and letting your opponent breathe a sigh of relief. There's a time and place to sacrifice a guy into scoring position (say, tie game in the home half of the last inning). But I'm with Earl Weaver. Play for one run, that's all you'll get. I'll play for one run when all I want or need is one run.
Click to expand...

Yep. The only scenarios that involve sac bunting to move a runner to 2nd would be late game situations, or a playoff game where you're later on in the game.
 
tipyerbartender said:
For my approach to have been dismissed or "counter-pointed", we're going to have to see it tried first. Vince Lombardi didn't often use 4th down aggressively. He's in the Hall of Fame, but 50 years later, now we all know better.

Who can say what a hitter like Miggy on deck does for the OBP of the hitter you have at 9 (the rest of the game). I daresay his presence enhances the previous hitter's OBP.

I can't say my approach is right, I can say it has worked. At some point, for me, definitely getting more at bats out of your best hitters trumps maybe getting your best hitters up with guys on base. Again, I want runners on base because that leads to crooked numbers. Probably depends on the strength of the bottom third of your order. But setting up your line-up based on one inning, one known and eight unknowns, doesn't make sense to me.
Click to expand...

Did you mean you can't say it has worked? Pretty sure that's what you meant because I'm not sure you can say it has worked since I can't think of a team that has led off their best hitter. The Ichiro example, as you said, was by default because Ichiro was a lead off hitter who just happened to be the best hitter on that team (and would have been on any team he played for).
 
I was speaking of other levels of baseball. There are more adventurous managers at amateur levels throughout the land. There are a lot of factors in play, I admit. That's what makes it interesting. I don't think it as nearly as cut and dried as conventional MLB tendencies would have people believe.
 
tipyerbartender said:
I was speaking of other levels of baseball. There are more adventurous managers at amateur levels throughout the land. There are a lot of factors in play, I admit. That's what makes it interesting. I don't think it as nearly as cut and dried as conventional MLB tendencies would have people believe.
Click to expand...

Comparing amateur baseball to MLB makes no sense in this discussion, I'm sorry tip. We are simply talking about using your best hitter in the 2 hole at the major league level, or at the professional level at the very least. Why in the world would we take amateur levels into play here? Are you saying that because in some amateur league in C-Bus, or Buffalo, or in any city in the US that a coach is using his best hitter at lead off, and that somehow MLB should take that as a sign that they are doing things wrong? I don't see how the comparison even makes any sense....we're talking about amateur baseball vs. professional baseball, which there are too many differences to even mention but I'm sure you're aware of.

These aren't conventional MLB tendencies we are talking about. Putting your best hitter #2 is something that is completely brand new, and has only been brought about by the new statistical analysis that teams are using. You are literally arguing with math and statistics, not the old school MLB-types. The old school way to which you're referring would have your best hitter in the 3 hole. Even those dinosaurs seemed to have adapted and now realize that maybe they weren't right and #2 makes more sense...again based on countless hours of analyzing statistics to prove it.

No one thinks it's cut and dried either, which is why managers are just now beginning to toy with the idea of using their best hitters in the 2 spot. One thing that does seem to be cut and dried though, based on the analysis, is that you don't want your best hitter hitting leadoff due to the situations you miss out on him being up with runners on base (since the only object is to score runs).
 
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