Are we seeing fad or beginnings of a new approach?

reNew Orleans

reNew Orleans

Clubbin' with Rasual Butler
this has probably been discussed somewhere....
are teams just tinkering with their lineups, any of this here to stay? adjustments to better pitching/drop in power?


some of these #2 hitters that have been traditionally been the heart of the lineup.

a couple of big names have been entrenched in the 2 hole for a good chunk of time this year.

Joey Bats
Mauer
Cano
Hamilton (1st appearance today)
 
There have bee exist endive studies showing our best hitter should bat 2nd. You are seeing managers trust statistical analysis
 
Part if the reasoning is your 3 hitter gets up so often with o on and 2 outs. Plus you get more at bats out of 2 hole and you aren't hitting behind pitcher.
 
I've said it many times. My best hitter bats first. My best reliever is the first one out of the pen.
 
I was really surprise to see Brandon Phillps batting clean up for the Red, he's not the traditional HR slugger...but he is producing
 
There is pretty much zero mathematical reason to not bat your hitters in descending order in regard to their ability. There is absolutely no reason to not use your best pitchers when you need them.
 
Most successful amateur teams, trying to win games and not worrying about paying players, manage their bullpens 180 opposite of MLB teams.
 
Joey Votto is one of, if not THE best hitter in the game. I think I'd maximize his at bats.
 
No analysis needed. I want my best hitters up the most times. It's not hard.
 
All teams' obvious best hitters should bat first, therefore maximizing their plate appearances. Especially in the AL.
 
Who would he be driving in then tip? Aren't 1, 2, 3 more likely to get on base than 7, 8, 9?
 
No. All you want is traffic on the bases. You want your best hitters up as much as possible. Quit dreaming about balls over the fence with the bases loaded, start dreaming about hits and base runners.
 
tipyerbartender said:
No. All you want is traffic on the bases. You want your best hitters up as much as possible. Quit dreaming about balls over the fence with the bases loaded, start dreaming about hits and base runners.
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7, 8, and 9 are typically the worst hitters in your lineup though. The 4 spot is likely to have as many AB's as the leadoff man in a typical game.
 
I'm not worried about 7-8-9. I want my best hitter to get the most at bats. Runs count, no matter the inning.
 
If I bat my best hitters in descending order, I won't have to worry about 7-8-9 most nights.
 
reNew Orleans said:
this has probably been discussed somewhere....
are teams just tinkering with their lineups, any of this here to stay? adjustments to better pitching/drop in power?


some of these #2 hitters that have been traditionally been the heart of the lineup.

a couple of big names have been entrenched in the 2 hole for a good chunk of time this year.

Joey Bats
Mauer
Cano
Hamilton (1st appearance today)
Click to expand...
I think the de-emphasis on speed is what's driving it as much as anything. Now managers are slaves to sabrmetrics regardless.

The prototypical lineup used to be:

#1: Tablesetter (speed, high OBP)
#2: Contact hitter (move the runner over)
#3: Five tool player
#4: Power hitter
#5: Dependent on #4 (if #4 is RH, LH in 5 spot)
#6: Secondary power hitter
#7: 2nd to worst bat in lineup
#8: Worst bat in lineup (typically catcher)
#9: Pitcher

The mid-90's Indians and Mariners probably had the quintessential lineups.
 
How often does that #3 or #4 come up with ducks on the pond?
 
tipyerbartender said:
No. All you want is traffic on the bases.
Click to expand...

"I think walks are overrated unless you can run. If you get a walk and put the pitcher in a stretch, that helps. But the guy who walks and can't run, most of the time they're clogging up the bases for somebody who can run."--reds manager Dusty Baker
 
I've coached 14 years myself. Our most productive seasons were with my best hitters in the lead off spot. I would venture to say the 2 slot wouldn't be bad either if you're not playing small ball much which is the case in MLB.
 
Anyone remember Little League World Series when Toms River, NJ won? Their best hitter (Todd Frazier, now on the Reds) was the leadoff batter, hit two HR's in the Championship game if I remember right. Their 2nd best player batted 2nd.

I certainly understand Tip saying that you want your best hitter batting 1st, then going down in descending order, but there has to be a reason MLB managers don't put their lineups out there like that. Most likely has to do with putting men on base before your best two hitters, so your best hits 3rd and your 2nd best hits 4th.

You wouldn't want Miggy to leadoff, get a basehit and get stranded because the 2nd and 3rd best hitter couldn't drive him in. You want him to drive in runners that are already on base. Also, you want to put pressure on the pitcher, so if Miggy is batting behind the 8-9 hitters (your worst and 2nd worst batters), most likely its without anyone on base and thus you arent' maximizing your best hitter.

I think OBP plays the bigger part, have your best hitter hit 3rd, with two guys in front of him that can get on base.

As for the guys hitting 2nd, you are maximizing AB's by pushing them up a spot or two. Mauer is not a power hitter, but gets a lot of basehits, so let him bat 2nd. Bautista hits for power, but not a lot of avg, so its kinda tough to have him in 2 hole. I'd rather have Rasmus in 2 hole, but he's not comfortable there.
 
This isn't little league or high school or college...the game is played like it is supposed to be played at this level...I wouldn't go tell an accountant that he keeps his books wrong because I'm not an account and I wouldn't tell a welder how to use his torch because I don't know shit about welding...just funny to me how some of us think we know so much about the game when I'm guessing most of us haven't managed a professional team?
 
Just being a MLB manager doesn't mean a guy's smart. Probably more of a testimony to spending a lifetime in the game and having friends in the organization. Personally, I don't think the very best or worst managers ever win you or lose you more than a few extra games a season, but were you ever very impressed by Manny Acta?

In my Miggy Cabrera experiment, I can buy not leading him off (maybe second) in a National League line-up, or in an American League line-up with a VERY weak 9-hole hitter, like Lou Marson or someone like that. (That most pitchers can't hit is a shame and a topic for another thread.) After the first inning, they're not really leadoff guys and 3-hole hitters anymore, everything after that is coincidental. Over the course of the game and the season, I want to maximize Miggy's plate appearances and times he gets to swing his bat. Not Andy Dirks'. So I lead him off, simple as that.
 
Basically, every time the Tigers lose with Miggy on deck, Leyland should be horsewhipped until he sees the light.
 
Based on some quick calculations...

In 2012:

Miguel Cabrera: 161 G, 697 PA, 4.32 PA/G
Austin Jackson: 137 G, 617 PA, 4.50 PA/G
Alex Avila: 116 G, 434 PA, 3.74 PA/G

So basically we're talking about a difference of roughly 30 plate appearances had Cabrera and Jackson flipped in the order last season. Even using WAR, not sure how many more wins the Tigers would have had. Plus with Cabrera now having to depend on guys like Avila (.352 OBP) and Infante (.283 OBP) to get on base ahead of him as opposed to Jackson (.377 OBP) and Dirks (.370 OBP), as well as not having Fielder to protect him in the lineup, I think you'd see Cabrera's numbers decrease as oppose to increase.

I know what you're saying about not wanting your best player standing in the on deck circle with the game on the line, but odds are you're not in that position to begin with if you have him hitting 1st as opposed to 3rd or 4th.
 
I'd continue this debate, but I want to protect my role in the movie just in case tip becomes the next Billy Beane...
 
You got a deal, hugh. You can play my uncovinced and defiant manager.
 
First should be reserved for a high OBP guy. Walks are at a premium with no outs. Many studies say best guy #2. Second and third best should be 1 and 4 depending on the strengths of each hitter.
 
tipyerbartender said:
There is pretty much zero mathematical reason to not bat your hitters in descending order in regard to their ability. There is absolutely no reason to not use your best pitchers when you need them.
Click to expand...

I wouldn't say this is true. You want your best hitters up with guys on base for the most part, and speed always at the top, which is usually your highest OBP guy.
 
I'm just controlling what I can. I can't control how many fast guys get on base in front of my best hitter. I can maximize my best hitter's plate appearances. Incidentally, the Tigers just scored three runs in an inning Miggy led off with a walk.
 
Small sample size. You want Miggy up as much as you can but due to his power you don't want him up first
 
tipyerbartender said:
No analysis needed. I want my best hitters up the most times. It's not hard.
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The analysis is needed though Tip, you should at least read it. You want your best hitter up the most times, but in reality you want your best hitters up the most time when there are guys on base. Having your best hitter get you a base hit and then having an inferior hitter behind him whom you trust less to bring that baserunner in makes little sense. You want your best hitters up with guys on base as much as possible. The analysis that was posted from the beyond the box score website breaks it down very, very well.
 
tipyerbartender said:
I'm just controlling what I can. I can't control how many fast guys get on base in front of my best hitter. I can maximize my best hitter's plate appearances. Incidentally, the Tigers just scored three runs in an inning Miggy led off with a walk.
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But you can't control how many runs can be possibly scored if your best hitter is leading off all the time. And you can control how many guys get on base in front of your best hitter...it's called OBP.
 
You see, you guys want baserunners ahead of Miggy. I just want baserunners. My approach puts more pressure on the defense. When I'm in the defensive dugout, only thing that scares me is a tough out at the plate.
 
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