April Bases

[mrpickem]

A new season starts today and I love it. I've hardly had any action over the last 4 days so I'm ready. I'm gonna try playing more dogs this season. I will look for value plays as well as short dogs with a good chance to win.


Thursday:

• 5/7.90 Cubs +158
• 4/3.70 BREWERS / CUBS u9 -108
• 5/5.30 Astros +106
• 4/3.48 Pirates / Cardinals UNDER 8 -115 for Game

CHASIN TODAY...Coming soon

randoms...

• Cubs +158 ... Hendricks can't really be as bad as last year and the Cubs are opening at home. Byrnes started strong last season and had a great season, but I think the odds are way high at Wrigley. I give the Cubs a 46% chance to win while the odds only say 38.5%. I think maybe the total is adjusted a little too high as well, based on Hendricks' pre-season and last season as well as the wind blowing out to center(10-14mph).
• Pirates / Cardinals UNDER 8 -115 ... Waino has to show his age eventually, right? Brubaker likely improves, while Wainwright regresses off last season's numbers. With both teams solid defensively, I can see a low-scoring affair that can go either way, so I would back the huge dog, but with the number dropping from +185 to +156 I'll just play the under.
• Astros +106 ... Even though I'm high on the Halos this season, not sure they come out the gate hitting all cylinders. Framber is solid and can see him improving, even more, this season. Love a top 4 team as a dog.

 

[chipnotized]

Good luck this season Mr.P...touch em all.

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
LAST - [2-1-1 +9.2u]
2022 - [2-1-1 +9.2u]

Friday:

• 4/6.76 Nationals +169
• 4/6.76 Athletics +169
• 4/6.00 Red Sox +150
• 6/3.35 RAYS -179
• 3/2.75 RAYS / ORIOLES o7½ -109

Pending:
Cubs
Astros

CHASIN TODAY...Coming soon

randoms...

• Red Sox +150 ... Once they get Cole out of there the Sox will be in better shape, most likely. We really don't know how effective Cole will be as he only pitched twice this spring, plus he may be on a pitch count to boot. Eovaldi did get plenty of work in spring and should be able to eat lots of innings. He has his best year last year and some of his numbers suggest he will improve even further this year.
• RAYS -179 and OVER 7½ ... Rays have pretty much owned the O's over the last few years. (24-5 over L2) and these teams typically get over the total(60% over L2 years). Tampa is a bad matchup for Means as he logged a 5.40 ERA in 5 games vs TB last season. I'm staying away from most chalky plays this season, but I can't resist this one along with the over.

 

[mrpickem]

adds

• 4/5.68 Cubs +142
• 4/4.20 ASTROS +105

​

 

[2daBank]

With you on Red Sox, gl today.

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
LAST - [2-4-1 -7.45u]
2022 - [4-5-2 +1.75u]

Saturday:

• 5/4.72 PIRATES / CARDINALS u8 -106
• 5/7.25 Cubs +145
• 5/9.15 Athletics +183
• 5/6.45 Nationals +129
• 5/7.25 Diamondbacks +145
• 5/5.95 TIGERS +119
• 5/6.90 Red Sox +138
• 5/5.25 Red Sox / Yankees UNDER 9 +105

CHASIN TODAY...Coming soon

randoms...

Gonna keep chasing these dogs as mostly these chalky favorites seem way overpriced to me.

• Red Sox +138 ... Gonna try again with Sox. Yankees will likely be treading very lightly with Severino after some injury scares in the spring. Likely he's on a short leash and even though the BoSox pitching depth is not good, they are still relatively fresh as only Whitlock won't be available out of the pen. BOS had their chances yesterday with multiple leads. They played ok and I think they can hang with NY while fresh now.
• Tigers +119 ... Cease may win a Cy Young someday, his stuff is that good...however, he's still young, and likely won’t go deep in his first start of the year today. Also, the Southsiders used all of their top relievers yesterday chasing a win, including 33pitches from Liam Hendriks and 19 from Kendall Graveman...even if they do pitch they won’t be nearly as fresh. Even though the Sox have a ton of depth in their pen, they still finished under .500 on the road last season at 40-41. Tigs were 42-39 at home in 2021 and they'll send their top righty(Mize) to the mound today. Tim Anderson is still out and Yoan Moncada is on the IL. Mize had 2 quality starts in 3 outingS vs CHW last year and should have success vs their righty-heavy lineup.

 

[mrpickem]

Chasing the line:

The New SDQL site is ok, but still a work in progress. As far as chasing goes, I'm treading lightly but definitely following closely.

These numbers are for 10 years and show a 6.41% ROI on all qualifying games. The crazy number is the run line for favorites that qualify is an astounding +40.39% ROI. The old site never broke down RL results by fav and dog, so this is new for me.

Lots of qualifiers today...I'm mostly just watching but all these favs qualify (TOR, STL, PHI, TB, MIN, NYY) and one dog: COL

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
LAST - [2-5-1 -12.5u]
2022 - [6-10-2 -10.75u]

Sunday:

• 4/4.96 NATIONALS (WAS) +124
• 5/8.95 Reds +179
• 4/4.00 CARDINALS (STL) -1½ +100
• 5/7.75 Diamondbacks +155
• 5/10.25 Rangers +205
• 5/6.25 MARINERS +125
• 5/9.80 Athletics +196

CHASIN THE LINE ...

YESTERDAY ML - 4-1
YESTERDAY RLF- 2-1

Solid day again both ML and RLF(Run Line Favorites). April seems like it's been really good, 9.5% ROI on ML and 47% ROI on RLF over the last 7 years in April. I'm gonna ease in with small action on the RLF's but can't bring myself to play the O's just yet.

Todays plays:

TOR
ATL
SL
BAL
LAD

The ones I played

• 2/2.00 CARDINALS (STL) -1½ +100
• 2/1.68 DODGERS (LAD) -1½ -119
• 2/2.04 BRAVES (ATL) -1½ +102

randoms...

Tough day after Snakes choked away the game late, but I know when you play dogs, you will have your share of bad days, but the good ones can be much better. Here's to one of them today!

• CARDINALS -1½ +100 ... Matz starts today for the Cards, who've outscored the Bucs 15-2 in two games. Matz (14-7, 3.82 ERA with the Blue Jays last year) and dominant in his final tuneup, (6.2 inns, 0 runs). SL has been raking, led by Arenado (2.042 OPS), one of five Cardinals with OPS over 1.000 so far. PIT tries out 24-year-old Bryse Wilson for a rotation spot, he sucked ass in the spring w/6.94 ERA. Current Cardinals are 11 for 25 (.440) vs Wilson. Laying the stick here today.
• NATS +124 ... Going back to this dry well one more time as WAS definitely has the better starter today if only marginally. Carrasco hasn't pitched well since joining the Mets and was brutal on the road last year(1-3, 6.17era, 1.67 whip in 5 starts). I'll back WAS to keep the brooms away.
• MARINERS +125 ... Marco Gonzales seemed to right the ship in the last 2 months of 2021, only giving up over 3 ER once in the last 15 starts(SEA was 11-4 in them games). In the 2H of last season, he was 9-1 w/2.70 era / 0.97 whip. In the first 2 games, the Twins were a not so amazing 3-25 vs LHP, and Marco is a slick lefty. I don't see this line of +125 as anywhere near correct. Get out the brooms in Minny.

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
LAST - [4-3 +19.96u] :stripper:
2022 - [10-13 +9.19u]

Monday:

• 5/8.65 Pirates +173
• 5/7.00 Mets +140
• 4/4.00 ROYALS / GUARDIANS u8½ +100
• 3/2.59 RED SOX -116
• 5/9.80 Athletics +196
• 4/3.51 Athletics / Rays u8½ -114
• 5/6.60 Padres +132

CHASIN THE LINE

LAST ML - 0-4
2022 ML - 6-8
LAST RLF- 0-1
2022 RLF- 3-4

Today: Padres


randoms...
Had a nice Sunday. Even going 4-3, when you're pounding huge dogs it's gonna pay off handsomely.

• Pirates +173 ...Zach Thompson had a solid rookie season a year ago with a 3.24 ERA / 2.36 K/BB ratio. He got almost no run support from the Fish and even though PIT also has a bad offense, facing Dakota Hudson they should be able to scratch a few runs across. Hudson only tossed 8 inn last season and struggled this spring in allowing 4 ER in 5 inn. Call it value, but this price is too good not to play. If you look at the trends, it kinda explains the line but methinks it's time for regression...new season/new story
  • PIT 15-45 in L60 roadies
  • PIT 14-38 in L52 Monday games
  • STL 10-4 in L14 at home
  • STL 36-16 in L52 Monday games
  • STL 52-25 in L77 as a favorite
• Athletics +196 and u8½ ...Even though Tampa has started the season hot, you have to remember it was vs Balty. The Rays have been very good at home since 2020 (87-43 +13.2% ROI), but they're only 9-9 at home in April since last year. Also, the totals in Tampa when lined less than 9 have stayed under 60% since last season (38-27-4).

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
LAST - [2-4-1 +0.4u]
2022 - [12-17 +9.59u]

Tuesday:

• 5/6.75 Mets +135
• 4/3.92 GIANTS u7½ -102
• 4/4.48 Mariners +112
• 4/5.00 ANGELS -1½ +125
• 5/7.30 ROYALS +146
• 5/7.10 Rockies +142

CHASIN THE LINE...

LAST ML - 1-0
2022 ML - 7-8
LAST RLF- 0-0
2022 RLF- 3-4

Today: LAA, WAS, SEA
RLF: LAA
UNDER: SD

randoms...
Would have been a very good night if Mets' pen wouldn't have imploded in the 8th, but still, it's fairly awesome to go 2-4-1 and still show a small profit.

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
LAST - [2-4 -3.15u]
2022 - [14-21 +6.46u]

Wednesday:

• 4/4.00 Athletics / Rays UNDER 7½ +100
• 5/5.65 Guardians +113
• 4/3.85 YANKEES (NYY) u8½ -104
• 4/3.74 ORIOLES (BAL) u8 -107

CHASIN THE LINE...

LAST ML - 0-1
2022 ML - 7-9
LAST UN - 1-1
2020 UN - 2-3
LAST RLF- 0-1
2022 RLF- 3-5

Today: NONE
RLF: NONE
UNDER: BAL, TB, NYY

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
LAST - [4-3 +4.44u]
2022 - [18-24 +10.9u]

Actually, I posted 3-1 yesterday but had 3 adds where I never clicked submit. They went 1-2 but I'm counting anyway to keep the math easy for my log.

Thursday:

• 5/5.80 Nationals +116
• 5/4.85 BRAVES -103
• 5/5.50 Cubs +110
• 4/9.20 Reds +230
• 4/7.52 Athletics +188
• 5/4.63 Mariners -108
• 4/3.33 YANKEES -120

randoms...

-ATL 65-47 (+18.1 Units) vs teams with a winning record over L3 seasons
-SD 37-47 (-26.1 Units) after a loss over L2 seasons
-CHARLIE MORTON is 6-1 vs SAN DIEGO with ERA 2.09 / WHIP 1.036 (team record 7-2)
-MUSGROVE is 2-1 vs ATLANTA with ERA 5.52 / WHIP 1.363 (team record 3-3)

-BUEHLER is 1-3 vs CINCY with ERA 3.23 / WHIP of 1.044 (team record 1-4)

-OAKLAND is 23-10 (+12.8 Units) vs left-handed starters over L2 seasons

 

[2daBank]

That braves price does seem low. Gl today

 

[mrpickem]

adds / buying off the yanks and hitting that bravos under

• 3.5/4.38 Blue Jays +125
• 4/3.39 PADRES (SD) u8-118

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
LAST - [4-5 +0.03u]
2022 - [22-29 +10.93u]

Friday:

• 4/8.12 Diamondbacks +203
• 4/5.60 Cardinals +140
• 4/7.52 Athletics +188
• 4/4.28 Cubs +107
• 4.40/4 Cubs / Rockies UNDER 10 -110

randoms...
Guess I was overthinking with adds and nixing NYY.

• Cubs +107 ... Cubs have been good to me so far this season and we continue to get good value with them. The Strowshow has faced the ROX 4 times and is 3-1 w/ERA 1.29, WHIP 0.750, and has allowed a .175 BA in 111 batters faced. German is COL's best starter as well, so methinks this adds up to a low-scoring battle where I like the under a little better but will also back the scrubbies.

• ARI 11-53 in L64 roadies
  ARI 5-23 in L28 Friday games
  ARI 1-11 in L12 meetings in New York
  ARI 1-9 in L10 meetings
  BASSITT 13-0 (+13.1u) vs teams with losing record L2 seasons(Team Record)
  DAVIES 17-10 (+14.9u) as a road DOG of +125 to +175(Team Record)
  DAVIES 3-2 vs METS with ERA 5.01 / WHIP 1.403 (team record 4-4)
  BASSITT 2-0 vs ARIZONA with ERA 3.64 / WHIP 1.154 (team record 2-1)

 

[peelpub94]

What's your angle on the Dbacks?

 

[mrpickem]

adding smallish plays on

CHASIN THE LINE...

• 3/2.27 WHITE SOX (CWS) -132
• 3/4.50 White Sox -1½ +150
• 2/3.64 Orioles +182
• 3/2.63 ROCKIES (COL) u10 -114

Type​	Last​	Season​	2015-2022​
ML	0-0	7-10	2088-1471 +6.4% ROI
UNDER	0-0	3-4-1	984-681 59.1%
OVER	0-0	1-7-1	1052.821 56.2%
RLF	0-0	3-6	1078-992 +39.3% ROI

Today
ML: O's, CHW
UNDER: COL
OVER: LAA
RLF: CHW
Chasin isn't off to a good start for '22 but fading the over indications is 7-1-1 so far :doggie:

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
LAST - [3-6 -10.89u]
2022 - [25-35 +0.04u]

Saturday:

• 4/6.04 Diamondbacks +151
• 5/5.00 Padres +100
• 4/3.88 PADRES (SD) u8 -103
• 4/3.74 BLUE JAYS (TOR) -1½ -107
• 6/4.11 Astros -146
• 4/4.20 ASTROS (HOU) -1½ +105
• 4/3.92 ASTROS (HOU) u7½ -102

randoms...

Padres +100 ... ATL started last season 4-8 and are off to a 4-5 start in 2022. Anderson didn't look good vs Reds in his first start while newcomer Nick Martinez looked very sharp at SF with 5inn, 1ER, and 6 K's. The Braves offense only hitting .234 on the year for 4.4 rpg so far this year. I'll back the Pads at home as a small dog.


CHASIN THE LINE...

LAST ML - 1-1
2022 ML - 8-11
LAST UN - 0-1
2022 UN - 3-5-1
LAST OV - 1-0
2022 OV - 2-7-1
LAST RLF- 0-1
2022 RLF- 3-7

Today:
ML: TOR, HOU, AZ
RLF: TOR, HOU
UNDER: HOU, ATL
OVER: SF, PHI, TB

 

[mrpickem]

What's your angle on the Dbacks?

I didn't see this until today, but obviously is was a poor angle. Yesterday my model had Mets with 58% chance to win while the line said 69%, so that indicates a play for me when over 10% diff, also I was leaning into due-factor as Mets had owned them for quite some time. Today it's much closer on the model at 59% for Mets and the line says 61% but still rolling with due-factor and the "chasin" angle.
:shake:

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
LAST - [5-2 +13.15u]
2022 - [30-37 +13.19u]

Sunday:

• 5/8.55 Diamondbacks +171
• 5/6.80 Marlins +136
• 5/5.75 Cardinals +115
• 5/5.00 Cardinals / Brewers UNDER 8½ +100
• 5/5.75 Cubs +115
• 5/4.00 PADRES (SD) -125
• 4/6.00 Padres -1½ +160
• 5/4.81 ORIOLES (BAL) u8½ -104
• 5/4.00 Blue Jays -1½ -125
• 5/4.35 RANGERS (TEX) u9½-115

randoms...

• PHIL 2-8 in L10 roadies
  PHIL 38-45 (-14.8 Units) after a win L2 seasons
  MIAMI 2-1 vs PHIL this season
  WHEELER 9-3 vs MIAMI w/ERA 1.97 and WHIP 0.953 (Team Record 12-5)
  HERNANDEZ 2-0 vs PHIL w/ERA of 4.15 and WHIP of 0.831 (Team Record 3-1)
• ST LOUIS 47-38 (+16.5 Units) on road L2 seasons
  ST LOUIS 26-15 (+14.6 Units) on road in division L2 seasons
  ST LOUIS 2-1 (+1.5 Units) vs MILW this season
• SMYLY 12-4 (+9.1 Units) in road games L2 seasons(Team Record)
  SMYLY 0-1 vs COLORADO w/ERA 5.23 and WHIP 1.646 (Team Record 1-1)
  GOMBER 0-1 vs CUBS w/ERA 6.13 and WHIP of 1.635 (Team Record 1-1)

CHASIN THE LINE...​

​

LAST ML - 2-1​

2022 ML - 10-12​

LAST UN - 2-0​

2022 UN - 5-5-1​

LAST OV - 1-2​

2022 OV - 3-9-1​

LAST RLF- 1-1​

2022 RLF- 4-8​

​

Today:​

ML: TOR, SD, CHC​

RLF: TOR, SD​

UNDER: MIL, BAL, TEX​

OVER: COL, BOS, NYM​

 

[Timh]

Mr. P spring is in the air....BOL

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
LAST - [4-6 -7.64u]
2022 - [34-43 +5.55u]

Monday:

• 5/6.35 Diamondbacks +127
• 5/5.55 Giants +111
• 4/4.20 Giants / Mets Under 6½ +105
• 5/7.95 Pirates +159
• 5/7.65 Rockies +153
• 6/3.55 PADRES (SD) -169
• 6/3.35 Dodgers -179
• 4/3.85 Orioles / Athletics Under 7½ -104

randoms...

• AZ +127 ...The Snakes and Nats begin a 4-game series in DC today with both teams struggling. AZ's everyday lineup is a mess, but Bumgarner actually pitched very well in 2 outings so far vs HOU & SD, allowing only 2ER in 8inn. Josiah Gray did toss 5inn without allowing a run in his last outing vs ATL but was shelled 10 days ago by NYM(9inn, 4.00 ERA, 1,56 WHIP). The Cards pen has performed better so far this season through 37inn w/3.62ERA / 1.26WHIP while the NATS pen has seen more work 44INN/4.67ERA/1.47WHIP. Both offenses are weak(17-18 at EV Analytics - Bet Like A Pro) and I can see Bum shutting down the Nationals tonight, so +127 looks pretty good.
  • WAS 7-23 in L30 home games

CHASIN THE LINE...​

​

LAST ML - 1-1​

2022 ML - 11-13​

LAST RLF- 1-1​

2022 RLF- 5-9​

LAST UN - 1-0​

2022 UN - 6-5-1​

LAST OV - 0-0​

2022 OV - 3-9-1​

​

Today:​

ML: na​

RLF: na​

UNDER: BAL, NYM​

OVER: na​

 

[mrpickem]

add

• 4/3.20 5inn Twins +½ -125

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
LAST - [5-1-3 +16.66u]
2022 - [39-44 +22.21u]

Tuesday:

• 5/5.75 GIANTS (SF) GM-2 +115
• 4/3.45 METS (NYM) GM-2 u6½ -116
• 5/11.5 Pirates +230
• 4/3.67 BREWERS (MIL) u7½ -109
• 5/6.00 Rockies +120
• 5/6.40 White Sox +128
• 5/9.80 Tigers +196
• 4/3.85 TIGERS (DET) u8-104
• 5/5.05 Cubs +101
• 4/3.74 ROYALS (KC) u8½ -107

randoms...

• Rockies +120 ...I know, we're barely through 10 games, but break up the ROX, at 7-3 they are actually getting decent pitching for a change with 3.30 ERA overall. Freeland has had 2 bad starts so far, but I expect far better from Kyle, and today at home vs this lackluster underperforming Philly bunch is a good place to start. What with the ROX torrid hitting start(2nd in BA & OBP) and Freeland's current form, likely the over is a good place to go as well. Personally, I am really trying to stay away from overs and big favorites this year, but I would lean to over here...but I will stick with the Rockies as a home dog.
  • 
    
  • COL 7-2 in L9 overall
  • COL 23-10 (+13.2 Units) at home w/line is +125 to -125 L2 seasons
  • COL 52-36 (+21.2 Units) at home L2 seasons
  • COL 31-20 (+12.5 Units) at home when total 11 to 12 L2 seasons
  • COL 35-27 (+10.4 Units) at home vs right-handed starters L2 seasons
  • COL 26-8 (+16.2 Units) in home games vs teams with a losing record L2 seasons
  • PHI 8-20 in L28 meetings in Colorado
  • PHI 2-6 in Gibsons L8 starts
• FRIED 1-4 vs DODGERS w/ERA 4.27 / WHIP 1.446 / team record 4-5 / OVER 2-7
  BUEHLER 3-1 vs ATLANTA w/ERA 4.19 / WHIP 1.233 / team record 5-3 / UNDER 4-3
• NYY 6-9 as road favorite of -175 or more L2 seasons
  COLE 3-8 (-14.7 Units) after a loss L2 seasons(Team's Record)
  DET 16-8 (+14.6 Units) on Tuesday L2 seasons
  ALEXANDER 11-5 (+11.8 Units) overall last 2 seasons(Team's Record)
  ALEXANDER 8-1 (+11.9 Units) after a loss last 2 seasons(Team's Record)

 

[mrpickem]

CHASIN THE LINE​

Type​	Last​	Season​	2015-2022​
ML	0-1	12-12	2092-1473 +6.43% ROI
UNDER	1-0	6-5-2	987-682 59.1%
OVER	0-0	3-8-1	1054-822 56.2%
RLF	0-0	5-7	1080-993 +39.36% ROI

Today
ML: NYY, ATL, MIL, BAL
RLF: NYY, MIL
UNDER: MIL, CLE, KC, DET
OVER: na

Small Plays(Not included in my overall record)

2.5/2 Brewers -1½ -125​

2.3/2 Pirates / Brewers UNDER 7½ -115​

2/2.1 Yankees / Tigers UNDER 7½ +105​

2/2.44 Orioles +122​

2/2.7 Braves +135​

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
LAST - [5-4-1 +0.71u]
2022 - [39-44 +22.92u]

Wednesday:

• 5/5.25 Rockies +105
• 4/8.60 Pirates +215
• 5/7.75 Tigers +155
• 5/6.05 Astros +121

randoms...

• Rockies +105 ...Rox got it done late yesterday, so I'm back with them again today. Not a believer in Phillies this year, at least not to the level lots of folks seem to be. Marquez is a stud, COL is 13-2 in his last 15 home starts and I'm getting plus odds! Sign me up!

COL 7-2 in L9 overall​

COL 24-10 (+14.4 Units) at home w/line is +125 to -125 L2 seasons​

COL 54-36 (+23.9 Units) at home L2 seasons​

COL 32-20 (+14.0 Units) at home when total 11 to 12 L2 seasons​

COL 11-3 (+9.9 Units) on Wednesday over L2 seasons​

PHI 8-21 in L29 meetings in Colorado​

EFLIN 1-3 vs COL w/ERA 7.40 / WHIP 1.887 / teams record 1-3​

MARQUEZ 3-1 vs PHIL w/ERA 2.75 / WHIP 1.417 / team record 5-1
​

• HOUSTON 4-2 (+1.6 Units) against LAA this season
  OVER 8-3 in HOU L11 as DOG
  OVER 8-1-2 in LAA L11 roadies
  OVER is 15-5 in L20 meetings in Houston
  OHTANI 0-3 vs HOU w/ERA 5.92 / WHIP 1.603 / team record 1-5
  ODORIZZI 1-3 vs LAA w/ERA 4.95 / WHIP 1.600 / team record 5-4

CHASIN THE LINE...

Great night Chasin (7-0 between ML, RLF & UN), the OV is a no play for now

LAST ML - 3-0
2022 ML - 15-12
LAST RLF- 2-0
2022 RLF- 7-7
LAST UN - 2-0
2022 UN - 8-5-2
LAST OV - 1-1
2022 OV - 4-9-1

Today:
ML: DET
RLF: na
UNDER: CHC
OVER: na

 

[2daBank]

I have a small WS future on Philly so guess I do believe (think or thought they were a playoff team, not so much WS but I always take 30-1 if I think a team can simply make postseason). They playing like crap right now tho and gotta love way rox overachieving every day, I say ride Rox at plus money till the wheels fall off! I like that pirates play as well! Gl today

 

[mrpickem]

5inn Royals +105

+105

 

[mrpickem]

Texas Rangers(D. Dunning -R) VS Seattle Mariners(L. Gilbert -R)
	Mariners		-150
	D. Dunning and L. Gilbert - listed
https://www.reddit.com/r/kateupton/comments/u2nbdt	Risk 135.00 To Win 90.00

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
LAST - [2-4 -9.55u]
2022 - [41-48 +13.37u]

Thursday:

• 4/2.63 RED SOX (BOS) +1½ -152
• 5/5.85 Cardinals +117
• 4/3.77 MARLINS (MIA) u7½-106
• 4/3.74 ROYALS (KC) u8 -107
• 4/4.80 GIANTS (SF) +120

randoms...

• ️CARDS +117...Cards go for the sweep today in Miami as they send Jordan Hicks out for his first-ever start in the Show, he has looked look so far this season over 5INN in two middle relief appearances. The SL pen has been very good overall this year with 2.25 ERA / 1.16 WHIP. Lopez has looked good in two starts so far, although only good for 5INN each(0.87 ERA, 0.97 WHIP). The Cards' offense while not great is way better than the fish;(SL - 5.0 RPG, .242 avg, 1.3 HR/g)(MIA - 3.6 RPG, .230 avg, 0.8 HR/g). I see a low-scoring game with the better lineup more likely to scratch across enough runs for the W. I'll back the better/hotter team at plus money with a little extra on the under.
  • ➡STL 12-3 L15 games as a DOG
  • ➡STL 26-8 L34 roadies
  • ➡STL 31-21 on road w/line +125 to -125 over L3 seasons
  • ➡STL 33-24 (+14.7 Units) on road at night since 2021
  • ➡STL 7-3 this season
  • ➡STL 29-19 on Thursday since 2019 (7-3 in L10)
  • ➡MIA 3-6 in L9 overall
  • ➡MIA 8-12 on Thursday since 2021 (5-8 in L13)
• RED SOX +1½ -152...Boston expects big things from top prospect Tanner Houck who is starting to pitch with more confidence ~ 15 starts into his young career. Runs will likely be pretty tight today and I like getting the stick with a strong young arm at home.
  • BOS 8-3 as RLD +1.5 over L2 seasons
  • GAUSMAN 3-8 vs BOSTON w/ERA 4.76 / WHIP 1.279 / team record 5-10 / UNDER 11-2
  • HOUCK 0-0 vs TORONTO w/ERA 2.35 / WHIP of 1.043 / teams record 2-0 / UNDER 2-0

CHASIN THE LINE...

LAST ML - 1-0​

2022 ML - 16-12​

LAST RLF- 0-1​

2022 RLF- 7-8​

LAST UN - 1-0​

2022 UN - 9-5-2​

LAST OV - 0-0​

2022 OV - 4-9-1​

​

Today:​

ML: na​

RLF: na​

UNDER: KC​

OVER: CLE, DET​

 

[2daBank]

Super excited to see Hicks as a starter, obviously he not gonna be throwing 100 pitches his 1st time out but if they can get him stretched out to that he has the kinda stuff they could really use from a front line guy with flaherty and Reyes out. I hate taking cards to sweep, it just not something they been great at doing in my lifetime, they all about focusing on winning series and I think far too often don’t play well after getting that accomplished. Lopez pretty dang good, I really like the under. Understand playing cards but think price bout right as they could end up using a lessor pen guy today to bridge a inning or 2.

 

[mrpickem]

adding

• 4/3.23 Nationals -124

D'backs have been absolutely horrible vs lefties, 3-12 last 15 and 19-49 L3 seasons. They are bad period, but vs LHP this year through 96 PA, they have .141 BA, .240 OBP and .416 OPS

​

 

[2daBank]

I’m not sure there a worse lineup in baseball than nats, pirates maybe? There ain’t many, the 1x I watched little bit one their games it looked a lot closer to a aaa squad to me.

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
LAST - [3-3 -2.86u]
2022 - [44-51 +10.51u]

Friday:

• 4/5.00 Rockies +125
• 4/6.64 Orioles +166
• 4/7.04 Guardians +176
• 4/5.32 Marlins +133
• 4/3.54 TWINS (MIN) u8 -113

randoms...

• ️CLE +176 ... Yanks' bats not getting it done so far and Taillon doesn't exude the highest confidence factor. CLE is 7-2 in L9 following a win and has won 4 straight roadies. The model gives NYY a 54% chance to win, while the odds imply 65% or more. At that price, it's largely a value play.
• COL 7-2 in L9 Friday games
  COL 11-4 in L15 roadies
  Under 20-6-1 in COL L27 interleague games
  DET 2-6 in L8 games following a win
  DET 11-4 in L15 games as FAV
  DET 8-18 on Friday since last year
  Under 18-7-1 in DET L26 on grass
  Under 8-2 in L10 meetings in Detroit

CHASIN THE LINE...

LAST ML - 0-0​

2022 ML - 16-12​

LAST RLF- 0-1​

2022 RLF- 7-8​

LAST UN - 1-1​

2022 UN - 10-6-2​

LAST OV - 0-2-1​

2022 OV - 4-11-2​

​

Today:​

ML: MIA, CLE​

RLF: na​

UNDER: MIN​

OVER: CHC​

​

 

[mrpickem]

ADDS

• 4/3.67 PIRATES (PIT) o7½ -109
• 4/3.13 GIANTS (SF) -128
• 4/4.00 Royals / Mariners UNDER 7½ +100

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
LAST - [4-3-1 +5.31u]
2022 - [53-58 +15.76u]

Saturday:

• 4/6.28 Pirates +157
• 5/6.90 Brewers +138
• 5/7.65 Marlins +153
• 4/9.00 Orioles +225
• 3/2.04 Mariners -147
• 3/4.20 Mariners -1½ +140

randoms...

• ️PIT +157 ...Zack Thompson has been pretty shaky in his first 2 starts but has had success vs Cubs in 3 starts. PIT has a little taste of winning and they like it. This will be a solid challenge today vs veteran Hendricks, although he was hit hard just 10 days ago at PITT (6 ER / 7 hits / 4 bb in just 3.2 INN. Both pens have been good ~ 2.50 ERA so far and have seen similar usage. PIT 1B acquisition Daniel Vogelbach has started out strong with 3 HR / .310 BA in the first 12 games, he's been DHing mostly and slotted 5th in this young potentially promising Bucs lineup. I like PIT value at +150 or more.
  • ➡SMYLY 2-11 (-11.9 Units) at home in April games (Team Record)
  • ➡SMYLY 12-20 (-18.1 Units) at home vs teams w/losing record since (Team Record)
  • ➡PITT 3-1 (+3.1 Units) vs CUBS this season(All 3 stayed UNDER)
  • ➡CUBS 17-36 in L53 home games
  • ➡CUBS 2-7 VS RIGHTIES THIS SEASON
  • ➡HENDRICKS 7-11 VS PITT W/3.99 ERA / 1.271 WHIP / .744 OPS / .307 BA
  • ➡THOMPSON 0-1 VS CUBS W/1.93 ERA / 1.000 WHIP / .250 BA / Team Record 2-1

​

CHASIN THE LINE...​

​

LAST ML - 1-2​

2022 ML - 15-14​

LAST RLF- 0-0​

2022 RLF- 7-8​

LAST UN - 1-0​

2022 UN - 10-6-2​

LAST OV - 0-0​

2022 OV - 3-11-2​

​

Today:​

ML: BAL​

RLF:BAL​

UNDER: NYY, TB​

OVER: AZ​

 

[mrpickem]

adds

• 4/3.48 5INN Giants -½ -115
• 4/3.92 YANKEES (NYY) u7½ -102
• 4/3.54 RAYS (TB) u7½ -113

Not sure what happened but I could have sworn I posted this around noon

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----​

LAST - [7-2 +28.81u] :breakdance:
2022 - [60-60 +44.57u]

It's really nice when you have a good day and you're playing dogs. 7-2 with mostly dogs was +28.8u where if I'd have been laying chalk, with similar risk amounts...maybe +8u or so; the difference is sometimes hard to comprehend.

Sunday:

• 5/5.75 Marlins +115
• 6/3.90 CARDINALS (STL) -154
• 4/6.44 RED SOX (BOS) +161
• 4/6.88 Orioles +172
• 5/7.25 Brewers +145
• 5/5.85 Rockies +117

Pend;
OAK


CHASIN THE LINE...

LAST ML - 2-1​

2022 ML - 17-15​

LAST RLF- 1-2​

2022 RLF- 8-10​

LAST UN - 3-1​

2022 UN - 13-7-2​

LAST OV - 0-0​

2022 OV - 3-11-2​

​

Today:​

ML: SF​

RLF: na​

UNDER: na​

OVER: na​

Where are them dogs??

 

[laopadak]

Good stuff yesterday Mr P. Appreciate the daily content.

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
LAST - [3-3 +4.88u]
2022 - [63-63 +49.45u]

Monday:

• 6/4.51 Astros -133
• 4/7.00 Rockies +175

randoms...

• COL 8-2 in L10 as DOG
  COL 10-4 L14 games on grass
  COL 43-37 (+13.6 Units) after a win L2 seasons
  COL 40-25 (+13.7 Units) vs teams with a losing record L2 seasons
  FREELAND 14-8 (+12.3 Units) w/total is 8 to 9 (Team Record)
  FREELAND 14-8 (+12.3 Units) on the road w/total is 8 to 9 (Team Record)
  FREELAND 10-1 (+9.4 Units) vs teams with a losing record L2 seasons (Teams Record)
  PHIL 3-9 L12 games on grass
  PHIL 36-44 (-17.1 Units) w/total is 8 to 9 L3 seasons
  PHIL 51-66 (-24.8 Units) at night L2 seasons.
  COL 2-1 vs PHIL this season
• HOU 42-35 (-21.7 Units) vs teams with a losing record L2 seasons
  VALDEZ 3-1 vs TEXAS w/ERA 3.33 / WHIP 1.111 / team record 3-2 / UNDER 4-1
  DUNNING 0-1 vs HOUSTON w/ERA 9.00 / WHIP 2.500 / team record 0-1
• BUEHLER 4-0 vs ARIZONA w/ERA 2.24 / WHIP 0.871 / team record 9-2
  KELLY 0-4 vs DODGERS w/ERA 4.58 / WHIP 1.398 / team record 1-6

CHASIN THE LINE...​

​

LAST ML - 3-1​

2022 ML - 24-22​

LAST RLF- 3-0​

2022 RLF- 13-13​

LAST UN - 1-1​

2022 UN - 13-10-4​

LAST OV - 1-0​

2022 OV - 9-17​

​

Today:​

ML: AZ, TEX​

RLF: na​

UNDER: na​

OVER: na​

​

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
LAST - [0-2 -10u]
2022 - [63-65 +39.45u]

Tuesday:

• 5/7.75 Rockies +155
• 6/4.48 MARLINS (MIA) -134
• 4/3.57 BRAVES (ATL) u8 -112
• 4/9.60 Athletics +240
• 4/4.32 BLUE JAYS (TOR) -1½ +108

randoms...

️A's +240 ...May prove a tough spot for SF after a long road trip with no rest in 2 weeks. It'll be their 3rd different venue in 3 days after WAS-Sunday and MIL-Monday. That's a tough ask in bases, and then there's this huge number. Jefferies has looked good in 3 starts w/ERA 1.18 / WHIP 0.98. I like the odds and may even add the +1½ +105 even with the book gouging bigtime for RL, I do suspect this game is a very close affair where the stick may prove paramount.​

CHASIN THE LINE...

LAST ML - 1-1​

2022 ML - 25-23​

LAST RLF- 0-0​

2022 RLF- 13-13​

LAST UN - 1-0​

2022 UN - 14-10-4​

LAST OV - 0-0​

2022 OV - 9-17​

​

Today:​

ML: LAA, TOR, ATL, COL, DET​

RLF: LAA, TOR, ATL​

UNDER: ATL​

OVER: STL, TEX​

@Bojana Krsmanovic
Birth Date:	March 01, 1992
Age:	29
Birth Place:	Krnjaca, Belgrade, Serbia
Height:	5 ft 11 in or 180 cm
Weight:	63 kg or 139 lbs
Body Measurements:	36-26-36
Nationality:	Serbian
Ethnicity:	White
Eye Color:	Dark Brown
Hair Color:	Dark Brown

 

[mrpickem]

adding a few more

• 5/6.90 ROYALS (KC) +138
• 4/4.76 MARINERS (SEA) +119
• 4/3.70 RAYS (TB) u7 -108
• 4/4.20 Tigers / Twins UNDER 7 +105
• 5/7.40 Guardians +148

 

[mrpickem]

Here are a few others I was considering with someone else's analysis...

TORONTO -1.5

ANALYSIS: The Blue Jays are going well, having won five of six, while the Red Sox have lost five of six. If you start to point out that you don't believe in the Hot Hand Theory, I won't argue, but I'm going with the Jays -1.5 (+106) anyway for many reasons. The Blue Jays are the better team, are at home, have a big advantage in the pitching matchup and have their best relievers rested. Jays starter Kevin Gausman has 22 strikeouts without having walked anyone or allowed a home run, which leads to his MLB-best 0.70 FIP.

He dominated the Red Sox last time out and they've only hit .208/.269/.327 on the road this year. On the other side, Red Sox starter Nick Pivetta has a 10.03 ERA, 8.12 FIP and 2.14 WHIP through three starts.​

L.A. DODGERS -1.5

ANALYSIS: Is it OK to mix sports here with a reference? I love Tin Cup. Such a great movie. Remember when Roy McAvoy (Kevin Costner) says "ride her till she bucks ya, or don't ride at all?" We've hit the Dodgers on the run line four times now and I'm kicking myself we didn't do it more often. We're riding the Dodgers -1.5 (-139) run line until they buck us. They are now 12-4 on the season and every single win has been by more than one run. Walker Buehler's shutout on Monday means a rested bullpen, Dodgers starter Tony Gonsolin has been good, Diamondbacks starter Zach Davies has a 5.45 ERA since the start of last season and the Dodgers are a significantly better team.​

CLEVELAND 140

ANALYSIS: Patrick Sandoval has pitched well in his first two starts but he hasn’t made it past 4 innings yet, and that is a problem. All three of the Angels' top relievers in Raisel Iglesias, Ryan Tepera, and Aaron Loup would be pitching their third game in four nights if they were to appear tonight. The Angels have the 6th worst bullpen in the league when they have their top relievers available, let alone now. The Guardians have now lost 4 games in a row but last night was a tough spot for them traveling cross-country and then playing. I think they should be more comfortable tonight than last night. Triston McKenzie got in a bit of trouble with walks in his last outing but he has pitched well in his three starts this season. This should be a close game heading into the bullpens, and I like the Guardians rested 17th ranked bullpen over the Angels' tired 25th ranked bullpen. Take the value in the Guardians.​

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
LAST - [4-6 -5.29u]
2022 - [67-71 +34.16u]

Wednesday:

• 4/7.92 Rockies +198
• 4/7.60 Cubs +190
• 4/9.28 Orioles +232
• 4/6.88 Royals +172
• 4/6.80 Tigers +170
• 4/3.70 RANGERS (TEX) u8½ -108
• 4/7.56 Guardians +189

Let the big dogs bark!​

CHASIN THE LINE...

LAST ML - 4-1​

2022 ML - 29-24​

LAST RLF- 2-1​

2022 RLF- 15-14​

LAST UN - 1-2​

2022 UN - 15-12-4​

LAST OV - 0-1​

2022 OV - 9-18​

​

Today:​

ML: LAA, BOS, ATL, OAK, PHI​

RLF: LAA, ATL, PHI​

UNDER: TEX​

OVER: TOR​

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
LAST - [2-5 -8.7u]
2022 - [69-76 +25.46u]

Thursday:

• 5/4.95 PADRES (SD) -101
• 4/3.57 PIRATES (PIT) u7½ -112
• 4/7.52 Rockies +188
• 4/6.60 Cubs +165
• 5/7.10 Guardians +142
• 4/6.40 Diamondbacks +160
• 6/4.08 Marlins -147
• 4/7.80 Orioles +195

randoms...

MIL/PIT u7½ ...Two good starters vs two avg-poor offenses in cool weather...need I say more? Maybe a 5-8mph breeze blowing out to right won't help, but not likely enough to hurt. Even the Bucs pen has pitched ok while the MIL bully remains stellar. Totals this year have stayed under an amazing 60.5% (153-100-15) and although I can't see this continuing throughout the season, you have to ride it while it's hot.​

Under is 6-1-2 in MIL L9 overall​

Under is 5-1-2 in MIL L8 roadies​

Under is 8-2-2 in PIT L12 games as DOG​

➡SAN DIEGO is 5-0 (+5.0 Units) vs CINCY this season

➡COLORADO 40-28 (+10.7 Units) vs teams with a losing record L2 seasons
➡PHIL 4-2 (+1.1 Units) vs COLORADO this season
➡WHEELER 1-2 vs COLORADO w/ERA 7.02 / WHIP 1.620
➡WASH 5-17 (-12.0 Units) on Thursday over L2 seasons
➡WASH 15-29 (-14.9 Units) at home in division opponents over L2 seasons
➡WASH 11-23 (-13.5 Units) at home vs left-handed starters over L2 seasons
➡CORBIN 15-31 (-16.2 Units) overall L3 seasons. (Team's Record)
➡CORBIN 6-18 (-13.4 Units) in division L3 seasons. (Team's Record)

CHASIN THE LINE...

LAST ML - 5-2​

2022 ML - 34-26​

LAST RLF- 1-3​

2022 RLF- 16-18​

LAST UN - 1-0​

2022 UN - 16-12-4​

LAST OV - 1-1​

2022 OV - 10-19​

​

Today:​

ML: AZ​

RLF: na​

UNDER: AZ​

OVER: na​

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
LAST - [3-5 -8.4u]
2022 - [72-81 +17.06u]

Friday:

• 3/5.16 Diamondbacks +172
• 4/4.92 Orioles +123
• 4/3.48 Red Sox / Orioles UNDER 9 -115
• 4/4.68 TWINS (MIN) +117
• 4/4.00 Twins / Rays UNDER 7½ +100
• 4/3.64 Angels / White Sox UNDER 7 -110
• 4/3.85 YANKEES (NYY) -1½- 104
• 4/3.81 ROYALS (KC) u8½ -105
• 4/3.88 MARINERS (SEA) -103

CHASIN THE LINE...

LAST ML - 1-4​

2022 ML - 33-29​

LAST RLF- 1-0​

2022 RLF- 19-15​

LAST UN - 1-2​

2022 UN - 14-12-4​

LAST OV - 0-1​

2022 OV - 9-19-1​

​

Today:​

ML: NYY, MIN, BAL​

RLF: NYY​

UNDER: BAL, TB, KC, CHW​

OVER: na​

https://www.reddit.com/r/bigtitsinbikinis/comments/udqdxr

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
LAST - [5-4 +4.13u]
2022 - [77-85 +21.19u]

Saturday:

• 4/6.28 DIAMONDBACKS (ARZ) +157
• 5/4.39 GIANTS (SF) -1½-114
• 5/5.25 Rockies -1½ +105
• 5/5.95 Astros +119
• 5/4.76 Red Sox -1½ -105
• 5/5.50 Angels +100
• 5/7.25 Athletics +145
• 5/4.67 BRAVES (ATL) -107
• 3/8.52 TIGERS (DET) +284
• 5/4.76 Yankees / Royals Under 7½ -105

randoms...
Rockies -1½ +105 ...Rox were floundering on the road, but now that they are back home vs one of the worse teams in baseball, they will play much better. They got the 10-4 win last night and we should see more of the same today. Kuhl has pitched well in 2 starts and against this Reds offense(2.6 rpg / .174 BA on the road) he should be golden.

CHASIN THE LINE...

LAST ML - 1-2​

2022 ML - 34-31​

LAST RLF- 1-0​

2022 RLF- 20-15​

LAST UN - 3-1​

2022 UN - 17-13-4​

LAST OV - 0-0​

2022 OV - 9-19-1​

​

Today:​

ML: MIL, SF, BOS, TB, COL​

RLF: MIL, SF, BOS, TB, COL​

UNDER: KC​

OVER: CHW, COL​