Any thoughts on Rutgers @ WVU this week?...

[Aztec4Life]

Line opened at 8, and is now at 10. I'm very close to taking Rutgers +points.

Anybody have some good insight on this game? Where you at TroyStacks?...

:shake:

 

[E.T.G.]

I think I am going to be on RU +10, I just can't pass it up. I set that as the # that I would play it at.

I have to get in touch with my friends at WVU but one has told me they see White on campus everyday and his ankle is hurting him..

Slaton continues to fumble, who knows whats wrong with him as well..

They could be pretty deflated after that loss last wk to USF and RU controls their own destiny.

I'm not asking them to win, don't lose by 10

 

[TroyStacks]

stay away no telling what will happen. rutgers has everything to play for but its a night game in morgantown and we don;t lose at night. just my opinion i'd stay away

 

[aplous]

I am FUCKIN in LOVE w/ Rutgers!

This team can move the ball on WV all day.....also, what kind of motivatoin can WV have? Win and play in....the GMAC bowl???

Rutgers wins and their in the SUGAR...BCS. I think Rice runs all over WV and they win SU.

White and Slaton are very much banged up. Schiano will have RU chopping wood all game, chunks, chunks, and he'll make WV beat them through the air. WONT HAPPEN.

Love the 10

 

[aplous]

What would the line have been if WV beat SF? 20?

Joke line....

 

[TroyStacks]

its moving up for a reason....they will be up for this game, i used to go their and on night games we just play at a level that cannot be explained. the atmosphere is just electricfying and the players know that. i would lean the points but a blowout by wvu would not surprise me either. and they aren;t playing for the gmac bowl. so before we all jump to conclusions lets listen to someone who knows more about these teams than you for a second there rookie.

 

[SportsNut]

What would the line have been if WV beat SF? 20?

Joke line....

Your way off IMO. I said that RU would still be double digits @ WVU after they beat Louisville. Do you really believe lines are adjusted more then 3 points because of a win or loss? They defeinetly are not and even 3 is extreme...If the they beat USF the line would have opened where it should be at -10 or -11

Your missing the obvious...Rutgers was 6 point dogs at home to Louisville. Which translates into 9.5 on a neutral field and 13 on the road. I believe Louisville and WVU on a neutral field are equal. So if RU played at either Louisville or WVU you would have expect them to be double digit dogs away...They undervalued RU some in the home game but just cause they won doesnt mean they are better or would see a huge difference in the line....

Rutgers beat Lville by 3 in a letdown spot. There is no reason to believe the line would be much different if they played again today. Lville would still be at least -3 probably -4 IMO if they played @ RU tmrw. That means if they played away it would be +10. You cant look so hard at one game

Your also forgetting about RU's offense on the road. They dont move the ball well . They struggled to win @ USF , @ UNC and lost @ Cincy. They won @ Pitt who were exposed as frauds. Big deal...

This is the same as last week with ND @ USC. Everyone is forgetting how good the home team is and overlooking the weak schedule of the opponent. Explain to be how RU will score here...WVU can stop the run...just like USC was good against the pass.. one dimensonal offenses struggle on the road.

I had WVU as a large play this week.....

 

[SportsNut]

its moving up for a reason....they will be up for this game, i used to go their and on night games we just play at a level that cannot be explained. the atmosphere is just electricfying and the players know that. i would lean the points but a blowout by wvu would not surprise me either. and they aren;t playing for the gmac bowl. so before we all jump to conclusions lets listen to someone who knows more about these teams than you for a second there rookie.

its moving up cause it was a soft line...

At -8 your basically saying WVU would be a 1 pt fav @ Rutgers ......

in my DREAMS!! WVU or Lville would still be -3 or -4 IMO if they played at RU tmrw do the reverse math......

Actually WVU would probably be about -7 or maybe -8 on a neutral field...

I love RU and hope they will win this game but I know as handicapper SOFT LINE.....

 

[aplous]

Do you really believe lines are adjusted more then 3 points because of a win or loss? They defeinetly are not and even 3 is extreme... .

Yes, I know that lines are moved b/c of a win or loss the previous week. Especially public teams playing in primetime games.

First example coming to mind...and this is NFL where lines are much tighter....Cowboys lose SU at home on MNF v. Giants. That day they were slated as +2.5 @ Carolina the following Sunday night. They get beat at home and Tuesday Morning Carolina is -6.

So yeah, the past week does have an effect on next weeks lines, especially in college where line moves are much more dramatic and often than NFL.

 

[aplous]

its moving up for a reason....they will be up for this game, i used to go their and on night games we just play at a level that cannot be explained. the atmosphere is just electricfying and the players know that. i would lean the points but a blowout by wvu would not surprise me either. and they aren;t playing for the gmac bowl. so before we all jump to conclusions lets listen to someone who knows more about these teams than you for a second there rookie.

Listen Rook, Ive watched about 8 WV games this year. So chill before you jump to a conclusion that Ive never watched your boys play, b/c I have < 3,000 posts at CTG.

Also, ESPN resident BCS expert Schlabach has ur Mountain Men headed to beautiful El Paso for the Brut Sun Bowl! :Cheers:

 

[SportsNut]

Aplous ~ I am not trying to be an asshole or anything but again your wrong. The line was moved cause Drew Bledsoe was benched and Tony Romo became the QB in the start of the 2nd Half of the game on MNF vs NYG. Romo played awful and it looked like Dallas was about to go down the tubes....and the line was not 6 it was 4.5 if I recall correctly...

They have effect just not a dramatic one as you believe....trust me on this ... and if a line happens to be moved cause of one game that CREATES value because 9 times out of 10 its an overreaction.......

West Virginia should have opened at least -10 versus Rutgers. Thats why it went from -8 to -10 in a blink. It wasnt the average handicapper thinking WVU was cheap or that there was so many WVU bets the line had to be moved from 8 to 10. A ton of cash had to hit the game and move it quickly....from what the books would deem respected players....

I know where lines should be better then most and being a NYer I have definetly turned by attention to RU this season but I still feel very strongly that the play is WVU here....RU offense wont run the ball and when Teel tries to make things happen usually it results it turnovers and RU WRs are so young...

 

[aplous]

You do know a shit ton about lines.....but Dallas was 6 early in the week, was my biggest hit of the season.

Just think that Rice will be able to get off some against WV, and as much as WV has shown this year, this is the first game of the year in which the outcome is really meaningless. Sure they want it, but they MIGHT be Gator Bowl material, but their real goal is now gone.

And I dont think their in any hurry to see L-ville win the Big East.

Should be a good one none the less.

 

[SportsNut]

:shake: aplous:cheers:

I think it will be a good game my only point was thinking that it was really a high line...

I love Ray Rice and it will be interesting to see how good the WVU run defense really is. I just see WVU struggling versus passing attacks and Teel just isnt there yet. What is lost is that Teel and Rice are just Sophs this is a very young RU team...

The fact WVU lost does concern me some....

 

[E.T.G.]

I like RU+10 if WVU is without White...


The West Virginia Mountaineers are a double-digit favorite after opening at -7. The team’s backers are counting on quarterback Pat White’s return to health after he suffered turf toe and a high ankle sprain on his right foot last Saturday against South Florida. White vowed on Tuesday to start against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights this weekend.
”I can`t tell you definitively one way or the other,” head coach Rich Rodriguez told The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. The paper reports that Rodriguez wants to make a decision by midweek between White and redshirt freshman Jarrett Brown, who took the bulk of snaps at practice on Tuesday and Wednesday.
”Right now, he`s out and I`m in,” Brown told the Post-Gazette. “That`s how I take it right now. I`m just really going with the flow.” The backup quarterback’s impressive season stats (14 of 18 for 140 yards and 103 rushing yards on 15 carries) are tempered by the fact that Division I-AA Eastern Washington was the only team against which Brown threw more than a single pass.

 

[smo1a]

Not saying that this necessarily matters, but there are more rumors about Rich Rodriguez and Bama...

Wednesday November 22, 2006
Could Rodriguez be among favorites for the Alabama job?
by Jacob Messer
Daily Mail sportswriter

Print Story
Email Story

Ready for another rumor involving West Virginia Coach Rich Rodriguez? Well, here it is, courtesy of Tom Dienhart from The Sporting News.
"I talked to a source recently who told me to expect Alabama to fire Coach Mike Shula," Dienhart wrote in his blog Monday.
"In fact, I was told the 'Bama brass is sorting through candidates as we speak. Here are the names I'm hearing from sources: Georgia Tech's Chan Gailey, West Virginia's Rich Rodriguez, Clemson's Tommy Bowden and Louisville's Bobby Petrino."
That isn't the first rumor involving Rodriguez, whose name was mentioned last month when North Carolina fired John Bunting and again this month when Michigan State fired John L. Smith, and it won't be the last.
Some college football experts believe North Carolina State's Chuck Amato and Miami's Larry Coker will be fired when the season ends. Rodriguez undoubtedly will be considered a candidate for both of those jobs if they open.
Such is the price of success.
Rodriguez has a 48-23 record at WVU, his alma mater. He twice has won the Big East Coach of the Year award, first in 2003 and again in 2005. He had led the Mountaineers to three consecutive conference titles and four consecutive bowl games entering this season.



Personally, I will prolly lay off this one.

 

[Aztec4Life]

Great discussion fellas. Appreciate all the insight and feedback.

:shake:

 

[TroyStacks]

rodriguez would goto miami if he was smart.....is style of offense would produce results like the past two years at wvu every year due to the availability of talent and athleticism in talent. the name "the u" alonw would help him get his pat white and steve slaton every recruiting year instead of once in a generation. bama is a stupid job to take that would involve atleast 3 years of recruiting to become a contender in a deep conference. the acc is wide open every year and will continue to be that way for years. miami or bust

 

[aplous]

I agree...why would anyone want the Bama job. Have to compete w/ all those southern schools for players (Aub, LSU, UGA, FLA). Have to be compared to Bera Bryant all the time.

Miami would be a perfect job for RR.

 

[Aztec4Life]

Wow. Line is now at 11.

 

[SportsNut]

Dr.Bob has spoken....not that I care really but thats why it moved...

told you this line was soft.....now lets see if soft line = win

 

[horses]

Three things I see here that are palying against WVA:

- Distractions for Rodriguez for the coaching offers we know he's involved with right now
- Game means more to Rutgers
- White's high ankle sprain (and I understand Slaton played nicked last week as well).

The last issue above HAS to concern anyone laying 10 in this game; high ankle sprains don't heal in a week, esp if played on the week before. If White is compromised running the ball, I think their offense will look a lot like last week.

I agree the spread opened a little low and is probably still a little low...if these were normal circumstances. They definitely are not in my opinion.

 

[horses]

...and I would take the 'Bama job in a heartbeat over the 'Cane job. It will pay at least twice as much, much better facilities and the expectations are about the same. Additionally, the school president is much more hands off at 'Bama than The U...Schalala (whatever her name is) will be monitoring the new 'Cane coach and the teams behavior with a microscope due to all the recent transgressions. More pay, more autonomy and about the same stress...no brainer for me. I'd be in Tuscaloosa.

 

[Aztec4Life]

Hey horses! You on Rutgers this week?... :shake:

 

[horses]

As always, good to hear from you Majentic; hope the season is treating you well.

DMAC...damn...our Aztecs suck! It's hoop season as far as I'm concerned for our school.

The only game I played on Saturday so far is Oklahoma -3 (-117); eyeballing the Rutgers game and would love to see this mamu bet up to 14; as you can see, Maj is on it, and that is always a good thing.

GL.

 

[HUNT]

leaning rutgers way too..rutgers will be able to run on WVU and teel will mkae a decent play or two...11 points is a lot of points to well coached team IMO.

 

[SportsNut]

Troy, if every line move won, Vegas and offshores would not offer
wagers on College Football sides.

I won't go into it too much because it's a lengthy discussion, but I
have 10 yrs worth of empirical/statistical data that shows that
*more often than not*, line moves of 2+ pts are wrong.

Interesting arguement....

With all though there has to be the WHY factor? Why did the line move in every situation??

Its NOT moving here cause everyone in the world think WVU is so good and its an easy bet.....

It is moving BASED on what I would call VALUE as the line opened up cheap. So its the books moving the line cause they have to adjust or be open to some heavy wagers on WVU at soft prices....

At the end of the day you will have more RU bets I am certain of that and probably more RU money....

So will 2 point moves are generally wrong its cause the betting public thinks the game is so easy and doesnt understand value or where a line should be.....they might say team A is better and should win at home and make them go from -1 to -3.....but maybe the true line was a Pkem...
So if they are driving up teh price its almost surely overvalued....

Isnt that why every Hawaii line move has been wrong this season.......

 

[SportsNut]

As always, good to hear from you Majentic; hope the season is treating you well.

DMAC...damn...our Aztecs suck! It's hoop season as far as I'm concerned for our school.

The only game I played on Saturday so far is Oklahoma -3 (-117); eyeballing the Rutgers game and would love to see this mamu bet up to 14; as you can see, Maj is on it, and that is always a good thing.

GL.

this line wont see 14 if it does I will middle...

As for the comments I dont about the coaching situation it can be a distraction....as for the injuries I think they are blowing smoke here...the backup QB saying I am taking the reps and expect to play....If that were true why advertise that?? Wouldnt it be better to ahve them prepare for White and have the other kid stuff......

My opinion is Pat White is fine....its all pyschological warfare.....

How good did RU defense look versus a mobile QB in Cincy or @ USF...a sitting duck liek Brohm / Palko were another story....

RU wont score more then 2 meaningful TD's on offense....

I would play WVU up to -10 now were are getting grey....just look at every RU game away and its the same stuff time and time again....thanks to RU soft schedule no one in teh country realizes that teams like USF and Cincy are every bit as good as good as Rutgers....every bit......and see how much bigger dogs USF and Cincy were in Morgantown. What happened vs USF is they took them lightily and it backfired. Every big fav that comes out on opening drive moves the ball downfield with ease and then somehow walks away with no points is ddestined to certainly not cover a spread and probably lose teh game cause they are just flat that day..........It happened the same way in Texas with A&M...

Good Luck guys.....

 

[SportsNut]

You put Rutgers on neutral fields with USF and Cincy and they are maybe -1.5 or 2 pt favs..and the lines would back that up..

Whats WVU in that situation on neutral fields...probably -13 or -14..

Cincy is RU...Rice gives them a better running game but RU is so young...

 

[HUNT]

I agree with what a lot of NUt is saying...stay away game for me personally.

 

[horses]

Sportsnut...you bring up good points, no doubt.

Regardless, Rutgers still has the better defense and one of the players that make WVA have the better offense, PW, has been battling a turf toe and an high ankle sprain...blowing smoke? perhaps...but I find it to be an amazing coincidence that his worst game of the year would coincide with these alleged injuries. Turf toe and high ankle sprains do not heal in a week. You can be virtually assured that PW will not be 100% today. If you think an 80 or 90 percent PW is enough to cover this...have at it...it's 10 at Pinny as I type.

I am passing.

GL to all who bet this game. Thanks for starting this thread, DMAC...very good discussion.

 

[TroyStacks]

ummmm i don;t believe is reading line movements ever thats not what i meantr by that comment their hoss. I was referring to the game itself. Look @ wvu record in night games at home. their only loses int he pst like 7 years we're too national championship teams such as VT and Miami. Besides how many people think rutgers can cover 2 tds even and actually have a 100% confidence to put down money on that, and decent money? my guess is not many. yes they look good this year but are they really all they are cracked up to be. teel is a horribe QB and no one can argue that. hes the eqivalent to 3 star high school recruit qb, hemakes stupid mistakes all the time. i still remind myself though of 2 sayings. if its too good to be true it probably is and.....your never s good as your last win and your never as bad as your last lost. saying that i say the play is wvu or nothing, UNLESS it is heard pat white will not play which i heard is a possibility b/c their backup is a fucking dunce and uncoordinated. hes like a daunte culpepper who isn;t any good.BOL on whatever you guys decide