JumpOnBoard
CTG Partner
kansas is on the move.
Another Dr. Bob Thursday
- Thread starter 3wiggler
- Start date
JumpOnBoard
CTG Partner
looks like kansas
JumpOnBoard
CTG Partner
kansas from 23 to 24.5 at cris..
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Wow. Kansas. Never woulda figured that...
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
RJ - From Dr. Bob - not a lot of money. The guy just wins year after year. I moved Kansas from 23.5 to 24.5
JumpOnBoard
CTG Partner
tOSU is 3.5, msu is 12 now..
hope he's on udub.
hope he's on udub.
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Kentucky is next. I went from 6.5 to 5... Got double-hit
JumpOnBoard
CTG Partner
has to be UK..
4.5s
4.5s
Fondybadger
CTG Partner
Love seeing the Kentucky play, want Ville.
JumpOnBoard
CTG Partner
all of em.
GridironGems
The Mel Kiper of CTG
Texas down to 17 and UCLA at 15.5
SteveMoneydog
Pretty much a regular
Strong Opinions on UCLA at -14 or less and Miss State at +11 or more.
3 Star Selection
***MIAMI OHIO 24 Cincinnati (-8.5) 23
09:00 AM Pacific, 15-Sep-07
Cincinnati won for me last week as a 3-Star Best Bet in their 34-3 romp over Oregon State, but the situation is not good for the Bearcats as they hit the road for the first time and Cincy is now overrated. The Bearcats have won their two games by a combined 93- 6 score, but they are averaging a +4.5 in turnover margin, which certainly isn’t going to continue. Cincy only out-gained Oregon State 4.8 yppl to 4.1 yppl last week, so they weren’t nearly as dominant as the final score indicates and Miami-Ohio is a missed kick away from being 2-0 after losing in 3 OT’s at Minnesota last week. The Redhawks upset Ball State on the road in their opener and they are a much improved club after last season’s uncharacteristic 2-10 record. My ratings only favor Cincinnati by 4 ½ points in this game and Miami is certainly capable of an upset win here given that the Bearcats apply to a negative 31-75-1 ATS road favorite letdown situation (that worked against Cal at Colorado State last week). Cincinnati, meanwhile applies to a 109-46-1 ATS home underdog situation and the record is 19-6 ATS for the home dog when both of those situations apply to the same game. Miami’s starting running back Brandon Murphy is out, but backup Andre Bratton is solid. One concern is the questionable status of top defensive player Joey Hudson, who led the team in tackles, tackles for loss and interceptions last season. Hudson is worth 1 ½ points based on last year’s stats, so I’d still only favor Cincy by 6 points if Hudson doesn’t play. I’ll take Miami-Ohio in a 3-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 2-Stars at +6 ½ or +6 points.
3 Star Selection
***KANSAS (-23.0) 42 Toledo 9
04:00 PM Pacific, 15-Sep-07
Kansas was very impressive in their 52-7 opening day win over a decent Central Michigan team and the Jayhawks followed that up with a 62-0 rout of SE Louisiana last Saturday. Kansas is no fluke. The Jayhawks’ defense struggled a bit last year with just 3 returning starters, but they look as good as the 2004 and 2005 defensive units, which had an average rating of 0.9 yards per play better than average. This year’s team finally has an offense to compliment their defense, as sophomore quarterback Todd Reesing has looked sharp while the rushing attack has been better than average as well. Toledo was a bad team last season and they don’t appear to be any better this year after getting blown out by Purdue 24-52 at home in week 1 and then losing 31-52 at Central Michigan last week – the same Central Michigan team that Kansas beat 52-7. The Rockets have averaged just 5.0 yppl while allowing a horrendous 7.2 yppl in their two games and they won’t be able to compete with Kansas in this game. The Jayhawks apply to a very strong 68-15-1 ATS fundamental indicator, a 110-43-1 ATS home momentum situation and a 46-8 ATS momentum situation. Toledo, meanwhile, is just 12-22-3 ATS on the road under coach Todd Amstutz. My ratings favor Kansas by 23 ½ points and I’d favor the Jayhawks by 37 points if I only used this year’s games instead of incorporating my pre-season ratings. The Jayhawks certainly have incentive after dominating last year’s game against Toledo only to lose in overtime thanks to -5 in turnover margin. I’ll take Kansas in a 3-Star Best Bet at -24 points or less, for 4-Stars at -21 points or less and for 2- Stars from -24 ½ to -26 points.
2 Star Selection
**KENTUCKY 40 Louisville (-6.5) 37
04:30 PM Pacific, 15-Sep-07
Louisville’s offense is as explosive as ever, but the Cardinals allowed 42 points on 564 yards at 10.3 yards per play in their 58-42 win over Middle Tennessee State last week. Kentucky has averaged 301 rushing yards at 7.8 yards per rushing play in the first two games and senior quarterback Andre Woodson is among the nation’s best quarterbacks after rating at 1.3 yards per pass play better than average last season with 31 touchdowns and just 7 interceptions (he’s now gone 206 passes without throwing a pick). Kentucky will give up tons of yardage on the ground to Louisville but the Wildcats’ secondary is much better this season and the ‘Cats have certainly played better defensively than Louisville has so far this season. My ratings favor Louisville by 5 points, but Kentucky has actually been the better team so far this season. The reason for the play is not the line value but rather a number of strong situations that favor the Wildcats in this game. Kentucky applies to a 48-8-1 ATS subset of a 144-63-3 ATS home momentum situation while Louisville applies to a negative 93-167-10 ATS situation that plays against road favorites coming off a home game in which they allowed a lot of points (applied against Cal last week). I’ll take Kentucky in a 2-Star Best Bet at +4 points or more and I’d make Kentucky a 3-Star Best Bet if they become an underdog of 7 points or more again.
Strong Opinion
Mississippi St. 19 AUBURN (-13.0) 26
09:30 AM Pacific, 15-Sep-07
Mississippi State came through with a good effort last week at Tulane despite being in a very negative situation and I expect the Bulldogs to build off of that performance against an overrated Auburn team that is already 0-2 ATS. The Tigers lost straight up to South Florida, which really isn’t much of an upset, and that loss sets up Auburn in a negative 9-43-1 ATS situation and a negative 30-66 ATS situation. Both of those situations are based on last week’s upset loss and the record is 0-5 ATS when both apply to the same game. Mississippi State looked horrible in their opening 0-45 loss to LSU, but that loss doesn’t look so bad now that LSU just dominated Virginia Tech 48-7. In fact, Miss State held LSU to just 4.8 yards per play while Virginia Tech’s top notch defense gave up 599 yards at 8.3 yppl to the Tigers. Mississippi State’s offense performed pretty well offensively last week, averaging a solid 5.8 yppl, but that unit is still below average and will probably have some trouble moving the ball against a good Auburn defense. However, Miss State is good defensively and Auburn has struggled on offense in their first two games against good defensive teams (just 4.3 yppl). The only negative is that Auburn is 5-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite following a loss. My ratings favor Auburn by just 10 points and I’ll consider Mississippi State a Strong Opinion at +11 points or more and I’d take Mississippi State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +14 points or more.
Strong Opinion
UCLA (-14.0) 30 UTAH 10
02:00 PM Pacific, 15-Sep-07
Utah’s offense went from a potentially potent attack to a worse than average unit when top back Matt Asiata and talented quarterback Brian Johnson both were injured in a game 1 loss to Oregon State. Backup quarterback Tommy Grady isn’t mobile enough to run the option elements of the Utah offense and the Utes don’t have a back that can run well without the benefit of the option’s deception. Grady was an Oklahoma transfer but he hasn’t shown any of his promise in 1 ½ games so far, as he’s averaged just 4.2 yards per pass play this season. UCLA’s defense is one of the better units in the nation and they should have no trouble shutting down the crippled Utes’ attack. UCLA, meanwhile, should be able to pound the ball up the middle against a soft Utah defense front that lost two run-stuffing tackles to graduation and now are without senior DT Gabe Long, who suffered an MCL injury last week. Utah has surrendered an average of 297 yards per game at 5.7 yards per rushing play in two games while UCLA has averaged 5.8 yards per rushing play in their two games. Talented Bruins’ quarterback Ben Olsen has done a pretty good job throwing the football (6.4 yards per pass play), but Utah defends the pass well – although UCLA probably won’t need to throw the ball much given their projected domination running the ball. The Bruins apply to a very strong 131-53-3 ATS fundamental indicator while Utah applies to a negative 30-64-2 ATS situation that is based on their upset home loss to Air Force. My ratings favor UCLA by 12 points and I’ll consider UCLA a Strong Opinion at -14 points or less and I’d make UCLA a 2-Star Best Bet at -13 or less.
3 Star Selection
***MIAMI OHIO 24 Cincinnati (-8.5) 23
09:00 AM Pacific, 15-Sep-07
Cincinnati won for me last week as a 3-Star Best Bet in their 34-3 romp over Oregon State, but the situation is not good for the Bearcats as they hit the road for the first time and Cincy is now overrated. The Bearcats have won their two games by a combined 93- 6 score, but they are averaging a +4.5 in turnover margin, which certainly isn’t going to continue. Cincy only out-gained Oregon State 4.8 yppl to 4.1 yppl last week, so they weren’t nearly as dominant as the final score indicates and Miami-Ohio is a missed kick away from being 2-0 after losing in 3 OT’s at Minnesota last week. The Redhawks upset Ball State on the road in their opener and they are a much improved club after last season’s uncharacteristic 2-10 record. My ratings only favor Cincinnati by 4 ½ points in this game and Miami is certainly capable of an upset win here given that the Bearcats apply to a negative 31-75-1 ATS road favorite letdown situation (that worked against Cal at Colorado State last week). Cincinnati, meanwhile applies to a 109-46-1 ATS home underdog situation and the record is 19-6 ATS for the home dog when both of those situations apply to the same game. Miami’s starting running back Brandon Murphy is out, but backup Andre Bratton is solid. One concern is the questionable status of top defensive player Joey Hudson, who led the team in tackles, tackles for loss and interceptions last season. Hudson is worth 1 ½ points based on last year’s stats, so I’d still only favor Cincy by 6 points if Hudson doesn’t play. I’ll take Miami-Ohio in a 3-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 2-Stars at +6 ½ or +6 points.
3 Star Selection
***KANSAS (-23.0) 42 Toledo 9
04:00 PM Pacific, 15-Sep-07
Kansas was very impressive in their 52-7 opening day win over a decent Central Michigan team and the Jayhawks followed that up with a 62-0 rout of SE Louisiana last Saturday. Kansas is no fluke. The Jayhawks’ defense struggled a bit last year with just 3 returning starters, but they look as good as the 2004 and 2005 defensive units, which had an average rating of 0.9 yards per play better than average. This year’s team finally has an offense to compliment their defense, as sophomore quarterback Todd Reesing has looked sharp while the rushing attack has been better than average as well. Toledo was a bad team last season and they don’t appear to be any better this year after getting blown out by Purdue 24-52 at home in week 1 and then losing 31-52 at Central Michigan last week – the same Central Michigan team that Kansas beat 52-7. The Rockets have averaged just 5.0 yppl while allowing a horrendous 7.2 yppl in their two games and they won’t be able to compete with Kansas in this game. The Jayhawks apply to a very strong 68-15-1 ATS fundamental indicator, a 110-43-1 ATS home momentum situation and a 46-8 ATS momentum situation. Toledo, meanwhile, is just 12-22-3 ATS on the road under coach Todd Amstutz. My ratings favor Kansas by 23 ½ points and I’d favor the Jayhawks by 37 points if I only used this year’s games instead of incorporating my pre-season ratings. The Jayhawks certainly have incentive after dominating last year’s game against Toledo only to lose in overtime thanks to -5 in turnover margin. I’ll take Kansas in a 3-Star Best Bet at -24 points or less, for 4-Stars at -21 points or less and for 2- Stars from -24 ½ to -26 points.
2 Star Selection
**KENTUCKY 40 Louisville (-6.5) 37
04:30 PM Pacific, 15-Sep-07
Louisville’s offense is as explosive as ever, but the Cardinals allowed 42 points on 564 yards at 10.3 yards per play in their 58-42 win over Middle Tennessee State last week. Kentucky has averaged 301 rushing yards at 7.8 yards per rushing play in the first two games and senior quarterback Andre Woodson is among the nation’s best quarterbacks after rating at 1.3 yards per pass play better than average last season with 31 touchdowns and just 7 interceptions (he’s now gone 206 passes without throwing a pick). Kentucky will give up tons of yardage on the ground to Louisville but the Wildcats’ secondary is much better this season and the ‘Cats have certainly played better defensively than Louisville has so far this season. My ratings favor Louisville by 5 points, but Kentucky has actually been the better team so far this season. The reason for the play is not the line value but rather a number of strong situations that favor the Wildcats in this game. Kentucky applies to a 48-8-1 ATS subset of a 144-63-3 ATS home momentum situation while Louisville applies to a negative 93-167-10 ATS situation that plays against road favorites coming off a home game in which they allowed a lot of points (applied against Cal last week). I’ll take Kentucky in a 2-Star Best Bet at +4 points or more and I’d make Kentucky a 3-Star Best Bet if they become an underdog of 7 points or more again.
Strong Opinion
Mississippi St. 19 AUBURN (-13.0) 26
09:30 AM Pacific, 15-Sep-07
Mississippi State came through with a good effort last week at Tulane despite being in a very negative situation and I expect the Bulldogs to build off of that performance against an overrated Auburn team that is already 0-2 ATS. The Tigers lost straight up to South Florida, which really isn’t much of an upset, and that loss sets up Auburn in a negative 9-43-1 ATS situation and a negative 30-66 ATS situation. Both of those situations are based on last week’s upset loss and the record is 0-5 ATS when both apply to the same game. Mississippi State looked horrible in their opening 0-45 loss to LSU, but that loss doesn’t look so bad now that LSU just dominated Virginia Tech 48-7. In fact, Miss State held LSU to just 4.8 yards per play while Virginia Tech’s top notch defense gave up 599 yards at 8.3 yppl to the Tigers. Mississippi State’s offense performed pretty well offensively last week, averaging a solid 5.8 yppl, but that unit is still below average and will probably have some trouble moving the ball against a good Auburn defense. However, Miss State is good defensively and Auburn has struggled on offense in their first two games against good defensive teams (just 4.3 yppl). The only negative is that Auburn is 5-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite following a loss. My ratings favor Auburn by just 10 points and I’ll consider Mississippi State a Strong Opinion at +11 points or more and I’d take Mississippi State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +14 points or more.
Strong Opinion
UCLA (-14.0) 30 UTAH 10
02:00 PM Pacific, 15-Sep-07
Utah’s offense went from a potentially potent attack to a worse than average unit when top back Matt Asiata and talented quarterback Brian Johnson both were injured in a game 1 loss to Oregon State. Backup quarterback Tommy Grady isn’t mobile enough to run the option elements of the Utah offense and the Utes don’t have a back that can run well without the benefit of the option’s deception. Grady was an Oklahoma transfer but he hasn’t shown any of his promise in 1 ½ games so far, as he’s averaged just 4.2 yards per pass play this season. UCLA’s defense is one of the better units in the nation and they should have no trouble shutting down the crippled Utes’ attack. UCLA, meanwhile, should be able to pound the ball up the middle against a soft Utah defense front that lost two run-stuffing tackles to graduation and now are without senior DT Gabe Long, who suffered an MCL injury last week. Utah has surrendered an average of 297 yards per game at 5.7 yards per rushing play in two games while UCLA has averaged 5.8 yards per rushing play in their two games. Talented Bruins’ quarterback Ben Olsen has done a pretty good job throwing the football (6.4 yards per pass play), but Utah defends the pass well – although UCLA probably won’t need to throw the ball much given their projected domination running the ball. The Bruins apply to a very strong 131-53-3 ATS fundamental indicator while Utah applies to a negative 30-64-2 ATS situation that is based on their upset home loss to Air Force. My ratings favor UCLA by 12 points and I’ll consider UCLA a Strong Opinion at -14 points or less and I’d make UCLA a 2-Star Best Bet at -13 or less.
reNew Orleans
Clubbin' with Rasual Butler
:smiley_acbe:
JumpOnBoard
CTG Partner
yeah..MB had a UC 8.5 till just now.
SteveMoneydog
Pretty much a regular
i don't like his picks for the weekend. i only agree with hin on miami ohio. i got miami ohio +9.
BOL to all this weekend!:cheers:
BOL to all this weekend!:cheers:
SteveMoneydog
Pretty much a regular
no problem! :cheers:
SteveMoneydog
Pretty much a regular
i don't think there are any more plays.
the only thing i found out is that a couple of hours after his official picks some other sites also posted Michigan, Boston College, Tulsa, UCLA and Pittusburgh as his plays. i dont't know if these are some fake plays or if they are really dr bobs plays.
Similar threads
