So, VK made me login here because he wanted to send me porn links in a PM like it was 2003.
OK, part of that sentence isn't true, but I'll leave it up to you to decide which part. What he did tell me is that BAR is strutting around this place with impunity (which certainly cannot stand), Fondy misses me terribly (which, I mean, is understandable), and you fuckers are giving Steed a hard time as she transitions.
Look you cold-hearted bastards, love is love and Steed is Steed. You let her be who she was born to be and you support her or they or you know what I'm saying. You love Steed today the same way you did yesterday. We love you, Steed, you majestic son of a bitch.
Let's see, how I can help. First, let me say, I am not back. Am I watching football again—engh, yes, sort of, somewhat. I mean, we all know the NFL officially ended when the Philadelphia Eagles won the Super Bowl. That's just a fact. So all this whatever we're seeing now is really just TV programming. Which is fine, if you're into that kind of thing.
Here's what I can tell you that I have seen.
Two huge things jump out to me this season so far.
1. More than I can remember, D-Line and O-Line run this game. If you cannot block, you are thunderfucked. I'll get to specific teams on that in a second.
2. This is really the first year of what I believe might be the new order of the NFL, by which I mean tanking, by multiple teams, officially.
This is already a major strategy in MLB. It's arguably 'the' way to build a winner if you're not the Yankees who can just write checks. Thankfully your Chicago White Sox are just about through with this process and should be ready for their first championship since '05 very, very soon. But I digress.
In the NFL, it really looks like, for the first time, you're going to get entire teams making a business decision right about this time of the season. And while I think that's going to look slightly different than say the Astros or White Sox losing 100 games or even 'Trust the Process' in the NBA, I do think you're going to get teams that treat the second half of the season almost purely as a sorting out process to see who comes back next year. And because of that you see almost pre-season like effort/coaching/scores from some of these teams.
Thing is, in the NFL, because games are so few (comparatively) and the talent level so equal (roughly), once teams decide it's fine if they go 3-13 vs. trying for 7-9, and especially if those teams are poorly run (think: Washington, NYJ, Cincy, etc.) I think you have to look at laying the points against them even on what will likely be inflated lines. For example:
Washington vs. Buffalo
I wasn't going to start with these two teams, but that's where this went so ... Washington is a dumpster fire, and if you're a player, and you just watched this team completely mistreat arguably their best player—and you know what a shitshow the front office is even before that, how motivated are you? Yes, yes, you're playing for a job in the NFL, but really, aren't you mostly playing a game of 'Just let me stay healthy the rest of this year?' Obviously that doesn't apply to Haskins, but you see what I mean.
Also on this game, back to point number one above: CAN. YOU. BLOCK. ANYONE.
I haven't bet a ton this year, but I promise you the vast majority of any 'capping I'm doing starts with point number one above. And I don't believe Washington's OL without Williams is blocking any halfway decent defense. I also think Buffalo (whether they're a paper tiger or not) got embarrassed at home last week and must be absolutely licking their chops this week to take out their frustration on anybody. And Washington sucks. I get that the line is high, but to me, betting on the Skins here is betting on pure hope. Hope that Haskins somehow has time, somehow can figure out an NFL defense with a real-time learning curve, and hoping Buffalo's defense doesn't come to play. No thank you.
Speaking of offensive lines ...
Oakland vs. Detroit
Both of Oakland's centers are hurt. As of right now, their plan is to start Ritchie Incognito at center on Sunday. The same Ritchie Incognito who hasn't played center since 2010. Apparently their other guys are game time decisions, but even if they go you have to imagine that they're limited. Which is not good because from what I gather, this is one of those systems where the center makes a lot of calls in terms of blocking schemes. Now, Incognito is a veteran, but are you really willing to risk it here? Especially when Oakland is so inconsistent even when they're fully healthy.
I haven't played anything here yet, but I lean Detroit ML and the over. First, there's an old hockey betting strategy which is to bet against teams coming home after long road trips. It seems counter-intuitive, but the reality is, you come home after a bunch of time on the road and you have to readjust at home. The wife, the kids, bills, everything you put out of your mind on the road comes flooding back. And Oakland has spent the last what, four weeks, on and off airplanes? They've actually played pretty well despite it, but something tells me this week they bounce.
Also, it's Detroit's nature to throw the ball all around the field. Assume a hurt center or a third string center for Oakland and you can probably figure on at least a turnover, maybe two. Or at a bare minimum, drives stalling for Oakland and Detroit getting the ball back quick. If Detroit can get points there, that means Oakland has to try to score with them. And that becomes a shootout real quick.
OK, now let's talk about some actual football teams. OK, one actual football team and the Cleveland Browns.
The Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are ... not good. HEY, HEY, I WASN'T FINISHED YET. The Eagles are not good, BUT they also haven't been healthy since like week one. I heard Brandon Graham this week being asked about how the D played so well vs. Buffalo and his response was, 'I don't want to make excuses, but we've been down a ton of guys.' And he's right. Good news for the Birds? They're starting to get healthy again on both sides of the ball. DJax will be back this week, then there's a bye. Then after NE, they get Seattle at home (and Seattle can't stop anybody defensively), then the Redskins, Cowboys (at home with revenge), and the Giants twice.
Again, the Birds aren't great, but their schedule is about to get Charmin soft. Don't be surprised to see them go 4-1 or 5-1 to finish the season.
The Cleveland Browns
OK, this team sucks. BUT they're talented. BUT that doesn't really matter because their coach is in way over his head. And that sucks, because he seems like he might be a good guy. But he's a mess. Again, it comes back to blocking, and this team couldn't block me. And trust me, my back won't even let me rush the passer. My back is like, 'Look, man we're dropping into coverage and that's just how it is. Or maybe we should just get some Gatorade, yeah, let's do that. That lemon-lime is the original for a reason. That's bottom bitch Gatorade right there.'
Sorry, back to the Browns this week. No way this team should be laying points on the road—HOWEVER, the Broncos might be starting an actual horse under center this week for all I know. What I do know is, if the weather is good, I might look at this over. Because Cleveland is going to be desperate. To me that means turnovers from Baker. And Flacco, while not playing, specifically called out Denver's coaching for being offensively impotent last week (and he was right). And maybe Fangio doesn't care about that, but I doubt it. All coaches have an ego. My guess is, even with a new QB, he opens it up a little bit this week. This week feels like 24-20. Maybe 27-20-something. No clue who wins, though, maybe Cleveland. Probably Cleveland if Denver's shitty luck still holds.
Speaking of Denver, I've told Joe Public Sr. Esq. all year that I think his Donks are going to get better defensively as the year rolls on. I still think that. They may continue to lose, and if the Football Gods are feeling friendly, they may give a Joe the over this week, but Denver unders have been pretty easy money so far this year and I'd expect more of the same in the second half of the season. Right after their bye next week they go to Minny then Buffalo. They aren't outscoring those teams, they have to beat 'em with defense.
What else ...
It's probably been said, but New England's defense, while really, really good, has really benefited from bad competition in the first half of the season. That changes going forward. I still think they'll be good. But I'd expect to see them start giving up points, getting to totals.
I don't know what happens with Baltimore this week, but I think they're playoff team good. Part of me thinks because NE will force LJ to beat them through the air this week the over is worth a look. Part of me thinks they throw but still don't score. But it doesn't matter. Balty's division sucks, they have wins and covers coming going forward.
Remember the playoff game Kansas City played vs. Indy like ten years ago where the two teams never punted and combined for like 976 total points? I don't think this version of KC's defense is that bad, but it's close. And I do think this version of KC's offense is that good. I think this team contends for the AFC Championship. Their problem the last few weeks is their whole OL is in shambles (SEE POINT NUMBER ONE UNTIL YOU REMEMBER IT). When they fix that, they'll be back.
I also think Indy's legit. Not 'We gonna beat New England in the playoffs!' legit, but like, 'We beat bad teams like it's our job' legit.
Alternatively, it looks like the annual Houston slide into mediocrity is about to start thanks to Watt being injured (again) and their coaching being a total albatross.
I saw some talk about Minshew vs. Foles in this thread. As an Eagles fan let me just say, this isn't even a discussion. Big Dick Nick is only good on one team and only during one very specific part of the year. That is it. Period. And that team is not the Jaguars. And that time of the year is when the Jaguars will be watching TV.
Cam Newton is done in Carolina (which might not be a bad thing) and there's a possibility the Niners broke the Panthers' spirit last week. This team, electric as McCaffery can be, feels like an 8-8 football team.
On the flip side of that, the Niners really feel like that team which is going to go 14-2 and somehow lose a home playoff game.
Actually, I'll tell you who they'll lose it to, if they play. New Orleans. That team is fully legit.
Arizona? Overs later in the season. Stupid me, I had the over in their game vs. SF on Thursday in my head all day, but ended up forgetting to bet it like a total chump. The money was just sitting there, but apparently I just didn't want it. I did however have the Nats to win the WS and bet them again in Game 7. So, you know, I'm not a total fuckwit.
Seattle is like the NFC's KC, Wilson is unstoppable, but their defense is a turnstile.
I'm not sure I have a good read on the Vikings.
Meanwhile, the Packers feel like 9-7 or 10-6. But not a very good 10-6. Like a 'Get to a playoff game and lose 31-27' kind of 10-6. BTW, word is the Packers may control roughly 80% of the stadium in LA this weekend vs. the Chargers who are good on the road and garbage at home, so that's something to think about.
The Bears who were supposed to be good look downright bad. And I say this as someone who's bet on them (and lost). If the weather holds in Philly this weekend, and DJax really is back, Philly might put it in their ear. Something to think about here. Huge revenge game for the Bears—BUT it's also an 'I'll show you' game for Wentz. Remember, he didn't beat the Bears last year, Foles did. Also, if Chicago loses here, it's basically their season given the records in the rest of the conference.
The Jets look like they are ready to fully implode.
The Bengals already have imploded.
The Dolphins look like Fitzmagic is going to refuse to let them implode and that they want to play for Flores even if their organization is pretty much a trainwreck.
Tampa took my money last week. But I still think this team has some covers left in them. And that you have to handicap at least one Winston turnover a game. At minimum.
Speaking of Tampa losing, Tenny took my money, but fuck them, they are not a good football team. They just aren't. And I agree with those who say Mariota is done.
Ooh, Atlanta. Coming out of their break next week I think you get Atlanta's Super Bowl. At NO. And once they lose that, I think this team fully quits. Like maybe Quinn gets fired and left on the tarmac in New Orleans. They can't stop anybody. Trading Sanu was a white flag, this team wants to start over. But I think they wait until after they lose 45-38 in NO to do it.
That's it. Maybe there will be more later. But before I go, maybe I'll let you know that you should probably look to fade Crystal Palace in the EPL for the next couple of weeks. They got a miracle draw last week vs. Arsenal which was huge because it leaves them 6th in the table. But they're still not a good home team and Leicester looks like they're actually good again. That suggests bad things for tomorrow.
Then they have to go to Chelsea (which feels like 1-3) and come home for Liverpool (which should probably be 0-2, 1-3, or 0-3). But then it turns. They get Bournemouth, Watford, Norwich, and Newcastle. Three of the four right at the bottom of the table. And one thing I love in the EPL is to bet teams coming off of a stretch where they played the top of the table and then play the bottom.
Playing better competition, even if they lose, makes them better. So while Palace may have a bad November, I think they might have a strong finish to the calendar. I'm just sayin.
Anyway, that's all from me for now.
TL;DR: The NFL, engh, yeah, I might bet it. And you goddamn degenerates are still the best. Guaran-Steed.
