All things KY Derby/Oaks Fri-Sat @ Churchill Downs

As far as the Oaks, I think Zany is the best horse. But right now she's 5/2 in the markets and I think that's way too short of a price in a very deep field.

Always a Runner and Prom Queen offer some value if you can get 8-1 or so.

Explora and Meaning do nothing wrong, and are deserving of their odds, I'm just against here.

Percy's Bar trounced Zany last time and her turn of foot is pretty remarkable, but that race was on a short stretch at Keeneland (basically 6 secs shorter) I don't think she's better than Zany going a 1 1/8 at Churchill.
 
As far as the Derby, 3 horses have separated themselves from the rest. Renegade, Commandment, and Further Ado.

Renegade drew the rail, which should help his price.
Commandment, for me, is the most likely horse to hit the board in the Derby, but may not win.
Further Ado, for me, the most likely of the three to win, or be nowhere.
 
If you just want to bet a horse that's 20-1 or so to say you bet on the Derby and don't care if you lose.

#11 Incredibolt 27-1 currently
#14 Potente 23-1 currently
 
The Puma and Chief Wallabee are probably the next tier behind the big 3, but they are close and definitely could win.

Chief Wallabe probably impressed me in the morning the most training at Churchill.

Emerging Market, light on experience, big on talent, can't be ignored, but you can't bet them all.
 
My toss list. Meaning I'm not using in the Superfecta, so if any of these hit the board, I will be wadding up my tickets.

3) Intrepid
4) Litmus Test
10) Wonder Dean
16) Pavlovian
17) Six Speed
21) Great White
22) Ocelli
 
CPA-hole said:
If you just want to bet a horse that's 20-1 or so to say you bet on the Derby and don't care if you lose.

#11 Incredibolt 27-1 currently
#14 Potente 23-1 currently
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A few people that they've had on the local news have mentioned Incredibolt. I know nothing about the horse. I won't be there this year and will likely place very few bets. I might just blindly put some lunch money on any of the Spendthrift Farms horses that are running.
 
Two Utes said:
A few people that they've had on the local news have mentioned Incredibolt. I know nothing about the horse. I won't be there this year and will likely place very few bets. I might just blindly put some lunch money on any of the Spendthrift Farms horses that are running.
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Further Ado is owned by Spendthrift, and if they all run their best race, he probably wins.

As far as Incredibolt. Do I love this horse? No. I don't like horses coming into the Derby off 7 week layoffs and prep in the Virginia Derby.

But his Churchill races as a 2yo were really good and he looked good in the mornings.
 
I love deep closers in this year's edition, since there should be a ton of early speed.
Also enjoy betting story lines , a female trainer has never won the Derby, will this be the year ??

#19 GOLDEN TEMPO is my selection. Think he will be flying late just as he was in the Louisiana derby. Currently 35-1 , nice value !! ..Betting to win and singled in the bottom of the exacta and Trifecta .
 
CPA-hole said:
Further Ado is owned by Spendthrift, and if they all run their best race, he probably wins.

As far as Incredibolt. Do I love this horse? No. I don't like horses coming into the Derby off 7 week layoffs and prep in the Virginia Derby.

But his Churchill races as a 2yo were really good and he looked good in the mornings.
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Shows you how much I've followed things. When we go I have interest, when we don't i just tune it out. We declined an invite to a derby party even. 😂
 
DOUBLEUP4LIFE said:
I love deep closers in this year's edition, since there should be a ton of early speed.
Also enjoy betting story lines , a female trainer has never won the Derby, will this be the year ??

#19 GOLDEN TEMPO is my selection. Think he will be flying late just as he was in the Louisiana derby. Currently 35-1 , nice value !! ..Betting to win and singled in the bottom of the exacta and Trifecta .
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I like this horse to maybe hit the board. Not sure he can win, but he'll be on my inverted pyramid style tickets.

Oh and mark it down. Cherie will win the Derby someday. She has too many owners with money (mainly her husband) to not win one. And she knows how to train.
 
Buddies at work and I are trying to put together a late pick 5 today ( Oaks day ) .... Unfortunately these broke bastards don't want to spend more than $50 each on the pick 5 ( $250 total )
 
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For what it's worth here are my handicapping grades for today

A. Worth a single

B. Must use

C+ Probably should use , but how much do you really want to spend

C . Could blow up the tote board , would only use in a leg that appears wide open

D. Best used underneath in exotics , many of the horses today are likely good enough for this grade.
 
1st race thoughts.

The #1 will be probably 3/5.

The #6 first race was brutal back in September. But this filly has a monster pedigree and I just believe if she can't run, they wouldn't be showcasing her on the 2nd biggest day of the year. There are/were a 100 different maiden races they could've run her in instead of today. We shall see.
 
Race 10.

6. A

3. C+
5. C
2. C-


Race 11.

5. B
9. B
1. B-

7. C+
3. C
2. C-

8. D+
4. D
11. D
6. D-



Race 12

8. B
3. B-

11. C+

5. C
1. C

9. D+
6. D



Race 13

2. B
9. B
10. B-
4. B-

11. C+
5. C+
1. C+

15. D+
 
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Race 9. 5,6,7,2
Race 10. 2,6
Race 11. 1,7,9
Race 12 3,11,13
Race 13. 2,4,9,10,11

Kinda what I narrowed it. Probably will just single the 3 in 12th. Maybe the 1 in the 11th on another.
 
CPA-hole said:
Race 9. 5,6,7,2
Race 10. 2,6
Race 11. 1,7,9
Race 12 3,11,13
Race 13. 2,4,9,10,11

Kinda what I narrowed it. Probably will just single the 3 in 12th. Maybe the 1 in the 11th on another.
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Really appreciate getting to see your selections ...Man my group over here needs to go back and look at a few you included
 
CPA-hole said:
1st race thoughts.

The #1 will be probably 3/5.

The #6 first race was brutal back in September. But this filly has a monster pedigree and I just believe if she can't run, they wouldn't be showcasing her on the 2nd biggest day of the year. There are/were a 100 different maiden races they could've run her in instead of today. We shall see.
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Boom
 
I have to give a shout out to one of my favorite spots on the planet

CHAMPIONS bar and grill OTB ...

Known for their FANTASTIC FOOD , cheaply priced drinks and super atmosphere for horse and sports bettors/watchers ...

SABRES and OAKS watch party tonight is going to be lit

50 cent wings for Buffalo sports games ( over 30 flavors )




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