ALL ABOARD the lindetrain - Week 10

L

lindetrain

Pretty much a regular
Week 9: 4-2, +1.79 units
YTD: 52-47-1, +6.32 units

A pretty good week all things considered...didn't have much time to look at games and still made some money. Hoping to have a little bigger card this week...

It may be a while before I get my PR numbers up.
 
For the first time all year, I am going down the line and looking at every single game individually for a couple minutes. I can't help but think I completely miss some potential winners by not even looking at the games. There are a lot of angles you can miss if you don't devote any time to a game.

Here are my thoughts on what I've looked at so far:

Rutgers looks like an excellent play to me. UConn is coming off two pretty big wins, including their first win over a top 10 team in school history - I have to think they are a little beat up physically. Now they play a slightly less important game in their eyes against another quality team, and I think in a way they could actually underestimate RU. Schiano definitely has the edge in practice this week, as they're coming off that embarrassment against WVU. Let's not forget RU still probably has the more talented team here.

I've been waiting to play Cincy in this spot, and despite USF coming off two consecutive losses, I think I still might. I really like the fact the Bearcats are coming off two losses and a bye week - I think they are legit and I expect them to rebound. Like UConn, USF is coming off two pretty physical and draining games, so I question how well they'll play here. They are a little beat up with injuries as well.

Don't look now, but Northwestern has 5 wins. That means a win over Iowa, who has really played like shit on the road, could push them to bowl eligibility. I like this spot as I think it could potentially be a letdown of sorts for the Hawkeyes coming off the comeback OT win.

It's going to be pretty hard for me to pass on SC. I don't know how Spurrier does it, but this team is tough despite poor QB play and a weak run D. Nutt got the best of him last year - something I highly doubt will happen again. The Ol Ball Coach should be able to devise some kind of gameplan to stop the offense that Auburn had no problem shutting down. Tuberville and Co. definitely left a blueprint out there if you ask me.

Everyone's gotta give Iowa State a look this week. They still don't have a conference win, so they are still playing for something if you ask me...and I don't think they've been half bad the last few weeks. KSU is coming off that blowout win over Baylor, and now has to travel up to Ames for an early game that they're also supposed to take care of. I think this is a pretty good spot for the Cyclones.
 
I really like Purdue this week. I've been waiting for this bunch to break out in a road game and/or against a tough opponent, as I think they're too experienced and have too potent of an offense to continuously lay down to better competition. I thought they may have done it against Michigan, and they didn't - but came home and got back on track the last couple weeks. Penn State just got embarrassed in their Super Bowl and now has to play this noon game. I think this is the game we see the Boilermakers prove something.

The only way I'll play it is in a ML parlay/teaser, but I like LSU to take care of business against Bama this week. Simply put, I don't think Saban's boys are very good, despite their impressive showing against UT a couple weeks back. LSU has yet to win a tough road game this year, getting upset in their trip to Lexington, and I think this is going to be a bit of a showcase for them as it was for tOSU last week. Both teams are coming off a bye, and I definitely think the rest benefits LSU, who badly needed it after playing Florida/Kentucky/Auburn in consecutive weeks. No interest in laying a TD in that environment, but I expect an impressive Tigers win.

I am somewhat interested in Miami OH, as I think they step up and win this game convincingly as its for first place in the MAC East. They're coming off two losses while Buffalo is coming off an easy win over Akron, which I think benefits the Redhawks as they need to regain some focus entering this one. They are the more talented team and will know how to handle this situation, as they have been there and Buffalo has not. They looked pretty bad against Temple, but were very impressive and wins over Kent State and BGSU prior to that.
 
I totally agree with you on the KSU/ISU game. The Cats played horrible in the 1st half against Baylor forcing 4 turnovers but only managing a 16-6 lead at half. They turned it around in the 2nd half to blow them out which hopefully will give us some momentum the rest of the season but there is just something about Ames that scares me. We never seem to play well up there. While I do think we win I just don't see us covering the 2 td's. Best case in my mind is a 14 point win but wouldn't be surprised to see ISU make it a 3-7 point game. Remember K-State has a tough game at Nebraska next week. (I don't care how bad they are this year it's still Nebraska and they will want to kick our ass)
 
Lind..

Uconn is a ton of heart.. they love playing at home and I'm telling you this game will be packed and loud just like USF.. they play with a ton of emotion that pours onto the field.. careful and good health
 
exactly my thoughts on lsu/bama. I wouldn't want to lay 7.5 but I sure as hell won't play bama getting anything less than 10
 
I am interested in hearing more about Purdue. I agree with you as far as situational spots go, but this seems to be a terrible match-up for Purdue. Sure, they can rip apart the bad offenses in the Big 10, but they almost always seem to lay down for the physically tough Ds.

GL this week linde - already on South Carolina myself.
 
husky17 said:
Lind..

Uconn is a ton of heart.. they love playing at home and I'm telling you this game will be packed and loud just like USF.. they play with a ton of emotion that pours onto the field.. careful and good health
Click to expand...

I know they have a ton of heart, but this team is a lesser version of UK in my eyes - they simply aren't talented enough to do what they're doing week after week after week. I think this is a clear letdown game (sort of reminds me of UK/Florida). I highly doubt UConn can match their intensity and excitement from last week once again.
 
Dmoney416 said:
I am interested in hearing more about Purdue. I agree with you as far as situational spots go, but this seems to be a terrible match-up for Purdue. Sure, they can rip apart the bad offenses in the Big 10, but they almost always seem to lay down for the physically tough Ds.

GL this week linde - already on South Carolina myself.
Click to expand...

I know they always lay down against the physically tough D's - but I think one of these days they are going to have some success. There's really no statistical evidence I can provide; just a hunch. What do you think it feels like to beat up on shitty teams then lose to good teams for all of last year and again this year? I think before it's all said and done, they beat one of these good teams. Catching PSU in this spot is the ideal situation if you ask me. Like I said, I think Purdue has too much experience and has too many great offensive players to continue to struggle every time they face a tough D.
 
Michigan State definitely has my attention catching some points at home. This team has not been great lately by any means, dropping 4 of 5 - but none of those losses were by more than a TD. Now they catch UM in a pretty nice spot, as the Wolverines have two big games coming up to end the year in Madison and hosting tOSU. After seeing them get down 10-0 to Minnesota at home last week, I'm beginning to think UM is going into cruise control, as they have been rolling since losing to Oregon. Obviously MSU is going to come into this game hungry, as they are hosting their rivals, ranked 12th nationally. We all know the Spartans can run the ball and with Dantonio on the sidelines, I think they have a shot at pulling the upset.

Oklahoma State will officially be my second 2-unit play of the year. I absolutely love this play. Texas is getting respect they haven't earned with this line, as they're favorites going into an extremely tough place to win in Stillwater. Did anyone know OSU was tied for 1st in the Big 12 South standings? This team is playing very well, and now gets a shot at the big boys from Austin. The Horns just haven't been good all year; they really struggled against Nebraska at home last week. This is a big showcase game for the Pokes, and I think they could blow this one wide open.
 
Rutgers +2.5 (-101)
Oklahoma State +3 (-102)

Will probably add more to these later, but wanted to get a part of them in now...
 
Added another unit on Rutgers +2.5 (-112) to make it:

Rutgers +2.5 (-107) - 2 units

If you like this you may as well bet it now, it's going down...
 
Linde...I do not know much about UCONN, but i have seen rutgers on many occasions and i do know that they are a very physical team. Depending on how emotionally drained UCONN is, it is going to be a good spot for Rutgers to win this one outright. Ray rice will wear them down all half then the 2nd half the play action will work like a charm.

GL
 
Navy +3.5 (-105)

Imagine being Notre Dame right now...a young team playing like shit who has a BIG weight on their shoulders as they must try to maintain a 43-game winning streak. If they lose, all hell will break lose. I think the Irish come into this game terrified, with their assholes tightened up because they will never live it down if they lose to Navy.
 
frankiegotti said:
Linde...I do not know much about UCONN, but i have seen rutgers on many occasions and i do know that they are a very physical team. Depending on how emotionally drained UCONN is, it is going to be a good spot for Rutgers to win this one outright. Ray rice will wear them down all half then the 2nd half the play action will work like a charm.

GL
Click to expand...

I agree. I think it's a great spot for RU...
 
everythingthatsgreen said:
looking for some thoughts on a few doggies..

wisky, vandy, and troy
Click to expand...

Ehh...I wish I could help you out, but I really don't even have a lean on all 3. I played Troy against their previous two SEC opponents, and it really didn't go as well as I hoped (needed a late backdoor against Arkansas, got killed by Florida). The Gators should be tired, but I don't know, I just hate betting against that team off a loss (2-0 ATS so far this year). Wisky, well, I'm just having a tough time gauging how tOSU will come out.

GL in whatever you decide, wish I could be more help...
 
lindetrain said:
Navy +3.5 (-105)

Imagine being Notre Dame right now...a young team playing like shit who has a BIG weight on their shoulders as they must try to maintain a 43-game winning streak. If they lose, all hell will break lose. I think the Irish come into this game terrified, with their assholes tightened up because they will never live it down if they lose to Navy.
Click to expand...

pretty classic shit right there
 
Purdue +7 (+108)

Completely fucked this up. Left for class still trying to get my bet matched, and forgot about Dr. Bob. Could've gotten +8.5 on this.

I would add ISU and Purdue TODAY and he's on KSU and PSU...
 
Update:

Northwestern -1 (-109)
Purdue +7 (+108)
Cincinnati +11.5 & LSU -0.5 (-110)
Iowa State +14 (-102)
Navy +3.5 (-105)
Michigan State +4 (-110)
Rutgers +2.5 (-107) - 2 units
Oklahoma State +3 (-102)

Not really looking at anything else right now, but something may come up...
 
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