Alex's thoughts about the Pitt football team in 2008

[~Utah]

Last year was an interesting year and it was actually kind of exciting even though we were a terrible 5-7. At one point everyone in the city including the players I think were calling for the Stache's head. But I think this year will be completely diffrent. One thing you have to remember about last year is the fact that right out of the gun(2nd game), we lose our starting QB and have to stick with a freshman in Pat Bostick and a bum Kevan Smith who both frankly sucked last year but Bostick really improved at the end and looked like he built a lot of confidence. Thats tough to do, coming in after Tyler Palko, who was one of the best QB's in Pitt history.

But Bill Stull will be starting this year, and he should be much better. If he goes down again, we have a reliable QB in Pat Bostick who deffinatly has a future in a few year. Stull has a pretty strong arm and should have a pretty good season, he probably wont throw a ton (20-25 passes a game). The receiver core is pretty decent also but you have to figure with a lot of inexperience and the QB's that played only throwing over 200 yards twice last season they didnt get a ton of catches, but with the experience, I can see them being a totally diffrent receiver core and having a lot better numbers. All of the starts (Kinder,Turner,byham) are upperclassmen, and they are all huge, should be big targets and should really help Stull. Dont expect to break open anything huge every game, but every once i na while..there is potential.

The best part of this team is Lesean Mccoy. This kid is a stud and he is completely under the radar for a lot of fans. As a freshman he had nearly identical numbers as Moreno did in Georgia. (1328 yards and 14 TD's)This is a REALLY strong running game because they have Larod Stephen-Howling backing him up and he is an excellent backup RB who is very reliable. Mccoy should be even better then last year. He has 2 problems, the first is that he is not much of a receiver coming out of the backfeild, but Stephen Howling is actually pretty decent at that. Then the second huge problem (apparently he worked hard over the spring and summer on this) , the fumbles, he fumbled a lot, at times in crucial moments. But if this kid gets daylight, its over. As a sophmore, the sky's the limit.

Expect the O-line to be pretty good also, they lost Otah, but other then that, we are in great shape with everyone else returning I believe.

Then there is the defense, I could see this being a decent secondary. Coming into the season I expected them to be average , but then I really took a look at the numbers, this potentially be one of the best units in the Big east

Last year we lost out best defensive tackle in Mustakas, so they really struggled, and gave up around 5 to 6 yards per rush, hes back this year, and the emergence of linebacker Mckillop, they should be a lot better. (Mckillop led the NCAA in tackles)

Bottom line, this team is expected to be ALOT better, and we could easily be looking at a 7-5 team last year instead of a 5-7 team. Even with injuries to key players they had a chance to do really well.

@ Michigan St- tight game, but we deserved to lose, because of the Stache's play calling mostly.
Navy - Im sure most of us saw this game when instead of for the tie, Stache went for the win, questionable call
@ Louiseville - on the 10 yard line going in for the tie with 50 seconds to go and Mccoy fumbles
@ Rutgers - Marched down the feild to win the game, even got the TD and then all of a sudden a completely phantom offensive pass interference call blew this game on the TD. Next play was an INt, but we should hav ewon that game and never been in the position to throw the INT

If stache doesnt have a winning season (a bowl game), then its over for him, a lot of expectations this year, and hopefully he fulfills them

Hopefully this is helpful for the upcoming season opcorn:

 

[~Utah]

Here is how I see it playing it...

8/30 - Bowling Green - Pitt's pretty good in their home openers every year (won last 11 of 12). They should cover the 12 spread pretty easily.

9/6 - Buffalo - Shoudl win this one, just like BG, but by more, Pitt is very good at home against MAC teams

9/20 - Iowa - This should be an interesting game and I think it will be very close. I could see Pitt being favored by 3 in this one and eventually winning by probably just that much. As far as I know, Iowa has a pretty good defense and plays pretty decent on the road, this should be a pretty low scoring one too

9/27 - @ Syracuse - They should win this one, they have an interesting past with Pitt, but Syracuse is possibly the worst team in the Big East

10/2 - @ USF - I expect this one to be a loss and possibly a blowout. Dont see them really hanging in on this one. They blew them out in Pittsburgh last year and they force teams to keep up with their tempo which really caught up with Pitt last year and will probably happen again. Pitt threw 38 teams in this game last year in this game. There 2nd highest during the season, both times they threw a lot, it was an absoloute blowout, I could see them being forced to do this again and losing big.

10/18 - @ Navy - Last year was a thriller, but I think Pitt beats them this year on the road, new coach, I just dont think Navy will be very good

10/25 - Rutgers - This is gonna be a close one just like last year, but I think Pitt pulls it out with the home feild. Also its my birthday that weekend . Im hoping for some luck then

11/1 - @ ND - I think that ND without question will be better this year, and they are going to without question beat Pitt this year. The last game Pitt played against ND was in the Walt Harris era, it was a bitter sweet day for me, I had box seats for th biggest game in Pitt history and Juluis Jones blew us up for 300 yards and I remember Larry Fitzgerald being dead to me that night. Pitt has a terrible history against Notre Dame, they are eqaul teams, but I dont see us beating them on the road.

11/8 - Louiseville - I dont know much about Louiseville this year other then that they have a decent QB this year. I think Pitt wins this one at home

11/22 - @ Cinci - I think Cinci is gonna be pretty decent this year and one of the better teams in the Big East. Pitt hasnt lost the "River Rivalry" ever but I think its a new day in Cinci and they should beat Pitt

11/28 - WVU - I really dont think WVU is gonna be that good this year, but you can throw that out the window for this game. WVU will beat us, its the way this rivalry works. Its even hard for me to say it.

12/6 - @ Uconn - This is a toss up for me, Pitt has a bad history against Uconn with a lot of bad luck involved. They have a great D-line this year and they could stop our running game. Its a toss up for me

So in conclusion I see Pitt going 8-4 or 7-5. Anything like that will be good news for Pitt fans. I have season tickets so ill be at all the home games hopefully.. not the most knowledgable here in CFB, but I hope I have helped on the Pitt side of things

 

[lindetrain]

Your game-by-game analysis seems spot on. I agree pretty much across the board.

 

[cogenman]

get rid of the stache, you'll have a better team.

 

[RetroVK]

good stuff alex

 

[Blue_Chip]

I'll be looking for Pitt unders. McCoy + Pitt's D

GL to you

 

[Seabass]

I'll be looking for Pitt unders. McCoy + Pitt's D

GL to you

See, I like the good RB + D thing, but not so much with LeSean McCoy. He's too much of a game-breaker for unders.

Either Pitt 3 and outs or McCoy rips off a long TD run...neither of which all that conducive to killing clock. I'd rather have a grinder.

As a side note, a stat I'd be interested in by RB is standard deviation YPC. I guess it essentially would just show you which guys are the HR hitters, and which guys are only good for a consistent 5 yard run every play...

 

[~Utah]

See, I like the good RB + D thing, but not so much with LeSean McCoy. He's too much of a game-breaker for unders.

Either Pitt 3 and outs or McCoy rips off a long TD run...neither of which all that conducive to killing clock. I'd rather have a grinder.

As a side note, a stat I'd be interested in by RB is standard deviation YPC. I guess it essentially would just show you which guys are the HR hitters, and which guys are only good for a consistent 5 yard run every play...

I dont bet totals ever, so I dont much about it...but here is hte RB ypc.

Mccoy 4.8 ypc
Howling 4.1ypc

 

[RetroVK]

I dont bet totals ever, so I dont much about it...but here is hte RB ypc.

Mccoy 4.8 ypc
Howling 4.1ypc

I think he means more like this ......

mccoy vs e mich ... 6 , -2 , 1, 3 , 29, -4 , 17 , 8 , 3, 7 , totaled 68 yards
mccoy vs mich st ...4, 12, 6 , -4 , 1, 6 , 64, 0, 19, -1, 4, 5, 8, 4, 2, 4, 10, 1 , 4, 5, -3, 8 , 3, 0, 11 totaled 172 yards (off an official yard somewhere )


etc etc etc

 

[~Utah]

I think he means more like this ......

mccoy vs e mich ... 6 , -2 , 1, 3 , 29, -4 , 17 , 8 , 3, 7 , totaled 68 yards
mccoy vs mich st ...4, 12, 6 , -4 , 1, 6 , 64, 0, 19, -1, 4, 5, 8, 4, 2, 4, 10, 1 , 4, 5, -3, 8 , 3, 0, 11 totaled 172 yards (off an official yard somewhere )


etc etc etc

Wouldnt even know where to find that and wouldnt really feel like typing it all :36_11_6:. But like I said not into totals whatsoever.

He doesnt have any huge runs except for that 64 yarder against M. State.

 

[RetroVK]

Wouldnt even know where to find that and wouldnt really feel like typing it all :36_11_6:. But like I said not into totals whatsoever.

He doesnt have any huge runs except for that 64 yarder against M. State.

yeah i dont feel like tying out either.....

i think what he is getting at is sort of the old emmitt smith v barry sanders debate ... they get to their hundred yards in different ways. Given two backs that both average 4.6 yards per carry , most handicappers are going to prefer the backs that approach that number more consistently in each carry as compared to a bunch of smaller runs and then one long one.

Of course i could be misinterpreting what he means too. anyways , good pittsburgh thread so far .

 

[~Utah]

<TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD class=storytitle colSpan=3>Pitt Picked Third </TD></TR><TR><TD class=primaryimage vAlign=top>

What? We're only third?

</TD><TD noWrap width=3></TD><TD vAlign=top><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=4 width="60%" bgColor=#f5f5f5 border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD vAlign=center noWrap>By Big East Conference
News Release
Posted Jul 29, 2008

</TD><TD noWrap>

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

NEWPORT, R.I. -- The Pitt football team has been selected to finish third in the BIG EAST's annual preseason media poll , as part of the conference's summer kickoff at the Viking Hotel.

</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=3>
Pittsburgh received one first place vote and 128 total points behind South Florida which tallied 149 total points and one first place vote. Defending co-Big East champion West Virginia was picked to win the Conference, totaling 22 of the 24 first place votes and 189 points overall.

Pitt (5-7, 4-3 Big East) returns 15 starters from last year's team including the nation's leader in tackler in senior Scott McKillop (Export, Pa.-Kiski Area) and the BIG EAST's freshman season rushing record holder in sophomore LeSean McCoy (Harrisburg, Pa.-Bishop McDevitt).

McKillop, a first-team All-Big East and All-America selection, is a preseason Chuck Bednarik Award nominee after leading the nation with 12.58 tackles per game a year ago. The centerpiece of the defensive unit that ranked fifth in the nation in total yards (297.67 per game), McKillop is also a strong
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opcorn:opcorn:opcorn:. The last time I was this excited for Pitt football is when I saw Larry Fitzgerald at the Loews movie theatre VIP club before his last season and he told me and my friends we were gonna win it all. :moose:

 

[Sarcastic Sword]

Here is how I see it playing it...

8/30 - Bowling Green - Pitt's pretty good in their home openers every year (won last 11 of 12). They should cover the 12 spread pretty easily.

9/6 - Buffalo - Shoudl win this one, just like BG, but by more, Pitt is very good at home against MAC teams

9/20 - Iowa - This should be an interesting game and I think it will be very close. I could see Pitt being favored by 3 in this one and eventually winning by probably just that much. As far as I know, Iowa has a pretty good defense and plays pretty decent on the road, this should be a pretty low scoring one too

9/27 - @ Syracuse - They should win this one, they have an interesting past with Pitt, but Syracuse is possibly the worst team in the Big East

10/2 - @ USF - I expect this one to be a loss and possibly a blowout. Dont see them really hanging in on this one. They blew them out in Pittsburgh last year and they force teams to keep up with their tempo which really caught up with Pitt last year and will probably happen again. Pitt threw 38 teams in this game last year in this game. There 2nd highest during the season, both times they threw a lot, it was an absoloute blowout, I could see them being forced to do this again and losing big.

10/18 - @ Navy - Last year was a thriller, but I think Pitt beats them this year on the road, new coach, I just dont think Navy will be very good

10/25 - Rutgers - This is gonna be a close one just like last year, but I think Pitt pulls it out with the home feild. Also its my birthday that weekend . Im hoping for some luck then

11/1 - @ ND - I think that ND without question will be better this year, and they are going to without question beat Pitt this year. The last game Pitt played against ND was in the Walt Harris era, it was a bitter sweet day for me, I had box seats for th biggest game in Pitt history and Juluis Jones blew us up for 300 yards and I remember Larry Fitzgerald being dead to me that night. Pitt has a terrible history against Notre Dame, they are eqaul teams, but I dont see us beating them on the road.

11/8 - Louiseville - I dont know much about Louiseville this year other then that they have a decent QB this year. I think Pitt wins this one at home

11/22 - @ Cinci - I think Cinci is gonna be pretty decent this year and one of the better teams in the Big East. Pitt hasnt lost the "River Rivalry" ever but I think its a new day in Cinci and they should beat Pitt

11/28 - WVU - I really dont think WVU is gonna be that good this year, but you can throw that out the window for this game. WVU will beat us, its the way this rivalry works. Its even hard for me to say it.

12/6 - @ Uconn - This is a toss up for me, Pitt has a bad history against Uconn with a lot of bad luck involved. They have a great D-line this year and they could stop our running game. Its a toss up for me

So in conclusion I see Pitt going 8-4 or 7-5. Anything like that will be good news for Pitt fans. I have season tickets so ill be at all the home games hopefully.. not the most knowledgable here in CFB, but I hope I have helped on the Pitt side of things

Coming off a season in which their defense was #5 overall in the nation and that 22 of 24 turnovers were committed by freshman, I dont see some of the games playing out like you have them.......Pitt will beat Syr - its not a "should win game", the Orange are brutal... they might lose at S. Fla but a blowout?.....With that defense, they wont get blowed out at all unless they have a turnover-fest...Unless ND got fast and skilled since last November, on paper, Pitt's better..Thats why they play the game but you act like its a no-brainer that Pitt loses in South Bend...Keep in mind in that most of Pitt's games this yr, they'll have the best player on the field (McCoy)..I like Pitt's new D-Coord (Phil Bennett) - they will attack - have more depth at WR with some youngsters and the return of Derrick Kinder for a 5th year (2006 All Big East, lost for 2007 season with injury in camp)..>Wannstedt's getting a lot of heat and rightly so based on some questionable decisions but he coached a brilliant game last Nov when they knocked off WVU and ripped out their heart in the process........

 

[Dmoney416]

Appreciate the insight AG - BOL this season.

 

[~Utah]

Coming off a season in which their defense was #5 overall in the nation and that 22 of 24 turnovers were committed by freshman, I dont see some of the games playing out like you have them.......Pitt will beat Syr - its not a "should win game", the Orange are brutal... they might lose at S. Fla but a blowout?.....With that defense, they wont get blowed out at all unless they have a turnover-fest...Unless ND got fast and skilled since last November, on paper, Pitt's better..Thats why they play the game but you act like its a no-brainer that Pitt loses in South Bend...Keep in mind in that most of Pitt's games this yr, they'll have the best player on the field (McCoy)..I like Pitt's new D-Coord (Phil Bennett) - they will attack - have more depth at WR with some youngsters and the return of Derrick Kinder for a 5th year (2006 All Big East, lost for 2007 season with injury in camp)..>Wannstedt's getting a lot of heat and rightly so based on some questionable decisions but he coached a brilliant game last Nov when they knocked off WVU and ripped out their heart in the process........

Well I dont agree with what you say, with that defense, this will get blown out, and a couple of times, and yes it will be because of turnovers. Against South florida and ND because of the offenses they run the Panthers are gonna get away from their gameplan and start throwing a lot. Look at the stats, everytime we threw over 25 times/200 yards we got beat, and badly, this is for the most part the same defense as last year, and we got beat by South Florida at home pretty bad, because of turnovers.

And I didnt say we will beat Syracuse badly, I said it would be an interesting game, which is diffrent. The funny is you would think Syracuse would play betteri n the dome, but they dont, they get blown out at home, they won one game at hgome last year, against Buffalo, the rest 30 + games. This team only gets worse by the year, I dont see how you could possibly think that we actually lose them. Theres always that chance I suppose but I highly doubti t

 

[Sarcastic Sword]

Well I dont agree with what you say, with that defense, this will get blown out, and a couple of times, and yes it will be because of turnovers. Against South florida and ND because of the offenses they run the Panthers are gonna get away from their gameplan and start throwing a lot. Look at the stats, everytime we threw over 25 times/200 yards we got beat, and badly, this is for the most part the same defense as last year, and we got beat by South Florida at home pretty bad, because of turnovers.

And I didnt say we will beat Syracuse badly, I said it would be an interesting game, which is diffrent. The funny is you would think Syracuse would play betteri n the dome, but they dont, they get blown out at home, they won one game at hgome last year, against Buffalo, the rest 30 + games. This team only gets worse by the year, I dont see how you could possibly think that we actually lose them. Theres always that chance I suppose but I highly doubti t

I respect your opinion...Its very hard to sit here and predict a win or loss based on turnovers....Freshman become sophomores and the experience factor should reduce the turnovers...I dont think Pitt will need to throw as much as McCoy will be used as a horse and get 30+ carries a game......Bostick is a stiff, he was responsible for most of the interceptions and wont see the field this yr between Stull and Cross....Like you, I am from Pgh and know this team well.....Blowout losses this yr would be extremely disappointing and if it happens at S. Fla, well, they are a good team with many starters returning.....Sometimes you tip your cap to the other team and say your better............ND is a joke...When you lose to both Navy and AF at home, you got a problem......Im not saying Pitt is a lock to win there, but if they lose, its a step back for them..........Its a game that you need to win when you are looking for your first bowl appearance in years...I appreciate your insights..