AlexGurv Week 4 NFL Picks

U

~Utah

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
NFL 2008-2009 Overall 26-16-2 +13.60 units
Week Three 9-6 +4.10 units

Three straight winning weeks in the NFL, lets keep it up. Few thoughts

- Steelers have no line
- Watching this Chargers game tonight, even though they won, i feel less confident honestly in my future bet
- Cromartie has no hands
- I still hate Brett
- Eagles are really good
- Steelers/Ravens game will be closer then most people think
- The state of Ohio might want to stop playing football
- Denver goes up against a good D and they are done, because they literally have no defense

Leans

Cleveland +3.5
Jacksonville -7.5
Vikings +3
Greenbay +1
St Louis +8.5
Dallas -11.5


Tell me what ya think
 
love the vikings at +3. The titans defense is awesome but how long can their offense hold, i mean they have collins at qb for god sakes. Vikings defense is good and looked real strong week 3, should put some pressure on titans old guy qb.

also leaning towards Browns myself. They have to get their power offense started sometime. Why not week 4? Especially after derek anderson's starting position is in a little danger.

dallas line seems a little inflated, they always have trouble with redskins. santana moss going deep all over us. Do you know if Roy williams is still out for the Cowboys?

No point in betting on the Rams IMO, they just look disgusting.

you should really look into the saints -6 over the niners. Sure, the niners won big last week but they havent convinced me they dont suck still. maybe thats just me.
 
Im actually not in love with anyone this week but gonna make some plays

Adding:

Bengals -3.5 to win 2 units

Changed my mind on this one. As Measy pointed out the Browns have to get their power offense going sooner or later, but I think they dont have a power offense. I never thought Derek Anderson was very good, and I think it has clearly showed this season. Cleveland might just be the worst team in the NFL, I think we see Brady Quinn come in for this game. The Bengals, even though they lost, they played well against the Giants. They got their offense going, they got some critical stops, and made a game of it. The defense hasnt looked as bad as usual and they can contain the Browns offense. The Browns secondary is terrible. Never been a Palmer fan myself, but hes always put up numbers, I think he gets it going again this week.

Jacksonville -7.5 to win 1 unit

Jacksovnille has struggled this year offensively but the Texans have been pretty much terrible. In fact other then the Slaton 50 yard run last week there have been no highlights to speak of for the offense. A problem I see for Jax is the O-line. Luckily the Texans have have no D-line to take advantage of that. I didnt watch the Texans-Titans game, but I know in the Steelers game this defense looked pathetic. Huge holes, poor tackling, and terrible secondary. I think Jacksonville can do beat this team by DD.

Pending

Bengals -3.5 to win 2 units
Jacksonville -7.5 to win 1 unit

Measy - So far I like the Vikings too, Gus Ferrote is a better replacement then a lot of people think and he has put up good numbers through the year. I dont know what it is, but I dont like the Titans at all.

I disagree now with browns pick, I think Derek Anderson wont pick up play, but I'm thinking his confidence has been shattered. He had 2 shitty games before that and he got berated. Now the head coach is saying he might be pulled, that cant help

I agree with Dallas, im kind of borderline with that. You are right they play them close

Look into everything else...GL
 
MeasyMoney said:
love the vikings at +3. The titans defense is awesome but how long can their offense hold, i mean they have collins at qb for god sakes. Vikings defense is good and looked real strong week 3, should put some pressure on titans old guy qb.
Click to expand...


I think this should be a good game as the two teams are very similar. The Titans aren't complete trash offensively anymore. They run well and Collins makes you at least respect the passing game some. Frerotte should have a similar effect on the Vikings and add some dimensions to their game.

I just wouldn't be enthusiastic about either side here. The Titans have homefield,a great field goal kicker and the better coach which is very important in a close low scoring game in which touchdowns are going to be hard to come by. I think you want +4.5 to bet the Vikings or -1 to bet the Titans and the line won't go that way. Play the under which is 36.5 and I don't see it going over 30.
 
MusicCityGambler said:
I think this should be a good game as the two teams are very similar. The Titans aren't complete trash offensively anymore. They run well and Collins makes you at least respect the passing game some. Frerotte should have a similar effect on the Vikings and add some dimensions to their game.

I just wouldn't be enthusiastic about either side here. The Titans have homefield,a great field goal kicker and the better coach which is very important in a close low scoring game in which touchdowns are going to be hard to come by. I think you want +4.5 to bet the Vikings or -1 to bet the Titans and the line won't go that way. Play the under which is 36.5 and I don't see it going over 30.
Click to expand...

Whats your exact feeling on this game? Usually when the Steelers lose I have a feeling they can lose, and they usually end up losing, anything like this for you?
 
AlexGurv1987 said:
Whats your exact feeling on this game? Usually when the Steelers lose I have a feeling they can lose, and they usually end up losing, anything like this for you?
Click to expand...


My feeling is the Titans win a close game but I'm not going to bet it because I think the line is exactly correct. Even from an optimistic standpoint I don't see the Titans winning this game by more than 6. It's going to be a very interesting game because the front 7 of both teams can put the other team out of their element.

The difference IMO is the Titans have an extremely strong secondary that gets lost in the shuffle because of Haynesworth and Vanden Bosch. Finnegan and Griffin have come on strong and I think the Vikings are much more likely to commit the big turnover that loses a game like this for that reason, but you never know. From what I've seen of the Vikings secondary, the Titans should be able to dink and dunk their way to get some first downs to control some field position.

In week 1, I had the Titans covering and the ML
I sat out week 2.
I had them -5.5 against Houston.

My recommendation is to avoid either side on this game unless you can get Titans -1.5 or Vikings +4.5. If you like Minnesota and can't do better than 3, then just play the ML.Play the under.
 
Adding..

Jets -1.5 to win 3 units

Feel pretty confident in this one. The Jets obviously are not a good team in my book, but they can certainly put up some points. Arizona has struggled on the road ever since I can remember. I hear from these NFL experts that Arizona is gonna make the playoffs. No, because they cant win road games. Jets win this one and easily

Green Bay +1 to win 2 units

Call me crazy...just not a believer in the whole Greise era. Think this season ends badly for the Bucs. Throwing 67 times? That cant be good, and the Bears really blew it last week

Pending

Bengals -3.5 to win 2 units
Jacksonville -7.5 to win 1 uit
Jets -1.5 to win 3 units
Green bay +1 to win 2 units
 
looks like bengals picked up their gameplay during the giants game. And already they are favored by 3.5...to me this game shouldnt be more than 3, which makes me think bengals are the right play and browns would be a trap bet. So i am glad you changed my mind on this haha

The jets game is a tough one, everything tells me to take jets but i do not have any confidence in them, have to stay away. Maybe Brett can show me something again

Going against you on the Greenbay bet, i think this is another trap bet, i like TB and the under. should be a good defensive game with TB winning by a fg in my opinion. BOL though
 
Adding...

Rams +8 to win 1 unit

Buffalo has had comeback from behind wins all season, no reason in my mind that they blew out the Rams, no matter how bad they are, Rams should be competitive in this one...

Dallas -11 to win 2 units

Think that Dallas runs away with this one. Can Jason Campbell really compete with these guys offensivel? They Arizona last week, not a huge accomplishment, and they beat the Saints secondary the week before, also something that isnt that tough to do. T.O. Also usually has huge games against the Redskins, and he needs a good bounce back week.

Pending

Bengals -3.5 to win 2 units
Jacksonville -7.5 to win 1 unit
Jets -1.5 to win 3 units
Greenbay +1 to win 2 units
Rams +8 to win 1 unit
Dallas -11 to win 2 units



Measy - Gl and I took that Jax game early so I guess I just got lucky...:shake:
 
Eagles thoughts....

You say you like the Eagles a lot, yet you dont list them as a play? I think that game is the biggest play of the whole week in my opinion. Sure McNabb and Westbrook are banged up, but they just beat the Steelers (a way better team) esentially without Westbrook. Any thoughts?
 
uncballa16 said:
You say you like the Eagles a lot, yet you dont list them as a play? I think that game is the biggest play of the whole week in my opinion. Sure McNabb and Westbrook are banged up, but they just beat the Steelers (a way better team) esentially without Westbrook. Any thoughts?
Click to expand...


Could be a great payback spot for the Eagles as the Bears beat them in Philadelphia in a game they had no business winning. The only thing that makes me reluctant to take Philadelphia is because Chicago has lost two straight tough games and they're at home. The Bears could really rally the troops so to speak this week. Still have to like the Eagles.
 
Philadelphia -3 to win 1 unit

All the hype has been around the fact that the Bears beat the Colts SU at home, on the opening day. Other then that, they havent looked that great. Im a little worried about the injuries, but Buckhalter is as good as any backup in the league even some starters. Mcnabb is a toss up, but he plays well on injuries and I dont think his injury is that terrible

Pittsburgh -5 to win 3 units

Alright, homer play somewhat here, but I think they win in a close game by a TD. I hope its a blow out, but I think itll be a close one.

Pending

Bengals -3.5 to win 2 units
Jacksonville -7.5 to win 1 unit
Jets -1.5 to win 3 units
Greenbay +1 to win 2 units
Rams +8 to win 1 unit
Dallas -11 to win 2 units
Philadelphia -3 to win 1 unit
Steelers -5 to win 3 units

-- the line wasnt out for the Philly game when I listed my leans. Wouldnt call it the play of the week, but its a play. GL To both of you this weekend.
 
Thanks guys GL

Adding..

2H Bengals +0.5 to win 1 unit
2H Panthers -3 to win 1 unit
2H Cheifs +7.5 to win 2 units
2H Vikings -0.5 to win 1 unit

Pending

Bengals -3.5 to win 2 units
Jacksonville -7.5 to win 1 unit
Jets -1.5 to win 3 units
Greenbay +1 to win 2 units
Rams +8 to win 1 unit
Dallas -11 to win 2 units
Philadelphia -3 to win 1 unit
Steelers -5 to win 3 units
2H Bengals +0.5 to win 1 unit
2H Panthers -3 to win 1 unit
2H Chiefs +7.5 to win 2 units
2H Vikings -0.5 to win 1 unit
 
Last edited:
Bengals -2.20 units
Jacksonville -1.10 units
Jets +3.00 units
Rams -1.10 units
Dallas -2.20 units
Philly -3 -1.10 units
2H Bengals -1.10 units
2H Panthers -3 +1.00 units
KC +7.5 +2.00 units
2H Buffalo +2.00 units
1H Philly -2.20 units
2H Bengals -1.10 units
Greenbay -2.20 units

NFL Week Four 4-8 -8.60



Steelers -5 to win 3 units
1H Steelers -3 to win 2 units

Gotta bombed this week. Hopefully the Steelers cover
 
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