ALDS: White Sox vs. Astros Discussion Thread

I have the Sox for the series, but I'm not super crazy about throwing Lynn before Geo. Also, the last time this team faced McCullers in Houston, he ran through them Hunt at a whorehouse. Actually, I just went back, he basically dominated them both times this year.

That said, the Sox were really depleted at that time, no Robert or Eloy in either game, no Grandal in the one in Chicago so you probably need to throw that game out. However, I'd have taken my chances with Geo—unless the idea is, this lets Lynn pitch Game 5. Because that's who I want there.

Anywhoo, I'm torn on this game. If it weren't McCullers, I'd be on the over. Since it's Lynn, and it's Game One, I kind of want to be on the Sox.

I have this feeling I talk myself into the Sox by tomorrow, tbh. Which may be more hope than handicapping. But I do like the Sox in the series. They're healthy, I think they're going to be motivated by being run out of the playoffs with almost no resistance last year, and although Houston is better defensively, I think they do get it done. Probably in five.
 
what makes you so afraid of McCullers? He seemed to never be able to put it together for my fantasy team

QS looks likely, or at least something that would qualify for runs allowed, but a 1.22 WHIP doesn't really jive with a 3.16 ERA. His K% certainly helps him escape an unbalanced WHIP, but that's a scary thing to rely upon against another playoff team instead of the toothless AL West.

L seem to be a much different ballgame for him, which means Moncada/Grandal/Cesar and then maybe Garcia gets in there? Not sure about the last one, but first three should be in the lineup balanced by the regular R heavy order.

I love Lynn and think he'll K enough to hang around if not throw better than McCullers. Expect he'll last longer as people don't seem so worried about the veteran arms like they would about 28yo McCullers. Plenty of good HOU arms in the bullpen, but hard to beat Kopech-Kimbrel-Hendriks
 
GWarner27 said:
what makes you so afraid of McCullers? He seemed to never be able to put it together for my fantasy team
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Mainly just that he plowed through this team earlier in the year. It's sort of a 'I touched that stove once this year' bias. But of course, I've already taken a bit of the Sox today. There are a few reasons for that, some of that is betting with the heart, but one thing I've found this whole year is—generally—when this team needs to focus, they do it. And although LaRussa wasn't there last year, a lot of these players were on the team that got swept out of Oakland. I think that, combined with how they've been during the season, is going to give you a team that is very ready to start this series off right.

That doesn't mean they win, but it's where I want them to be—and at plus-money, I think it's worth it.

Also, I've always been looking at Lynn's game as one I want to back in this series. Like a lot of Sox fans, he's really become my favorite part of this rotation this year. My guess is he shows up sort of like Wainwright did yesterday for the Cards. A couple of hits spread around, maybe a little bit of danger, a run or two, but mostly he holds Houston down and gives the Sox a chance to get to the bullpen and steal Game One.

Two other minor notes, first, Abreu was sick in Chicago earlier in the week and I think he may not have traveled with the team as they went down to Houston. But he's there now and he's apparently fever-free today. According to LaRussa, they have two lineups ready, one with him, one without him and they'll make the call after BP.

That being said, Jose is one of those guys who absolutely HATES to come out of games. I have trouble seeing him not be in the lineup today if he's out of the woods. Maybe he doesn't hit great today, but I'm confident he plays unless they force him to sit.

Second, I wasn't all that excited about starting Lynn over Geo today, but looking at what Houston's throwing in the first two games, I think LaRussa is getting it right.

Given how McCullers pitched the Sox earlier in the year, moving Lynn up suggests LaRussa is thinking he may need to keep this one low scoring if history holds. Cool.

Tomorrow, however, Houston is throwing a lefty. And although this team hasn't destroyed lefties this year the way they did last year, this lineup is still built to kill 'em. This year, Geo has generally been good, but when he's throwing, I generally expect the other team to land around three or four (or more if he's off that day). What I am hearing LaRussa's pitching rotation saying is, we may not be able to afford to give up three or four in Game One, but we will be able to in Game Two because this team is healthy, and they're going to fist-fuck their lefty on Friday.

I'm paraphrasing, of course, I don't actually know if TLR uses the term 'fist-fuck' but he's spent like 75 years in baseball so he's earned that right if he wants it.

In other words, no matter how this game goes today, I'll be on the Sox again tomorrow, and if we get a low scoring game today, I'll probably look hard at the over in Game Two as well.
 
Joe Public said:
Mainly just that he plowed through this team earlier in the year. It's sort of a 'I touched that stove once this year' bias. But of course, I've already taken a bit of the Sox today. There are a few reasons for that, some of that is betting with the heart, but one thing I've found this whole year is—generally—when this team needs to focus, they do it. And although LaRussa wasn't there last year, a lot of these players were on the team that got swept out of Oakland. I think that, combined with how they've been during the season, is going to give you a team that is very ready to start this series off right.

That doesn't mean they win, but it's where I want them to be—and at plus-money, I think it's worth it.

Also, I've always been looking at Lynn's game as one I want to back in this series. Like a lot of Sox fans, he's really become my favorite part of this rotation this year. My guess is he shows up sort of like Wainwright did yesterday for the Cards. A couple of hits spread around, maybe a little bit of danger, a run or two, but mostly he holds Houston down and gives the Sox a chance to get to the bullpen and steal Game One.

Two other minor notes, first, Abreu was sick in Chicago earlier in the week and I think he may not have traveled with the team as they went down to Houston. But he's there now and he's apparently fever-free today. According to LaRussa, they have two lineups ready, one with him, one without him and they'll make the call after BP.

That being said, Jose is one of those guys who absolutely HATES to come out of games. I have trouble seeing him not be in the lineup today if he's out of the woods. Maybe he doesn't hit great today, but I'm confident he plays unless they force him to sit.

Second, I wasn't all that excited about starting Lynn over Geo today, but looking at what Houston's throwing in the first two games, I think LaRussa is getting it right.

Given how McCullers pitched the Sox earlier in the year, moving Lynn up suggests LaRussa is thinking he may need to keep this one low scoring if history holds. Cool.

Tomorrow, however, Houston is throwing a lefty. And although this team hasn't destroyed lefties this year the way they did last year, this lineup is still built to kill 'em. This year, Geo has generally been good, but when he's throwing, I generally expect the other team to land around three or four (or more if he's off that day). What I am hearing LaRussa's pitching rotation saying is, we may not be able to afford to give up three or four in Game One, but we will be able to in Game Two because this team is healthy, and they're going to fist-fuck their lefty on Friday.

I'm paraphrasing, of course, I don't actually know if TLR uses the term 'fist-fuck' but he's spent like 75 years in baseball so he's earned that right if he wants it.

In other words, no matter how this game goes today, I'll be on the Sox again tomorrow, and if we get a low scoring game today, I'll probably look hard at the over in Game Two as well.
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Definitely like that G2 over
 
My baseball opinions don’t matter but I’ll fade Lynn with this lineup in this stadium at this price all day. I’m a closet Astro’s homer though behind my now departed Cards so it is what it is.

Mainly riding the 18-1 future but if I didn’t have it I’d be hitting this harder.

Stros -135 and -1.5 +155

Should be 2 great series in the AL.
 
PaintCrew said:
My baseball opinions don’t matter but I’ll fade Lynn with this lineup in this stadium at this price all day. I’m a closet Astro’s homer though behind my now departed Cards so it is what it is.

Mainly riding the 18-1 future but if I didn’t have it I’d be hitting this harder.

Stros -135 and -1.5 +155

Should be 2 great series in the AL.
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How in the world can a Cards fan also be a Houston fan after that history?
 
Thing about Leury is, he's had huge hits for this team all year. I always joke about how much Tony loves him and the fans are like, 'WTF, more Leury?' and then all the guy does is go out, go 2-4 and drive in a pair.

I like this lineup, I'm not sure I love it, and it feels like an under waiting to happen.

Which naturally means this game will finish 7-6.
 
i love lance as a pitcher, but he's been poor vs HOU for three years now.

Two 7ip 4r are decent starts in 2019, but some ugly others
 
rooting for ya joe but i think Lynn's struggles and the gaping hole that Rodon could leave has me really only looking to play against Valdez in this series
 
PaintCrew said:
Nothing to do with the history. Simply $$$
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and an 18-1 future
KJ said:
Was just going off the closet homer deal with the Astros, never met a StL fan that didn't want to kick them off the planet
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yeah i get it and honestly i was speaking a bit over the top there in general. Only times I've openly rooted for the `Stros is now the 3 years i've had healthy futures on them. Other than cheating I do love how they've built things up (even if they are ex-cards in management) for a long term run. Is what it is.
 
Only real ump angle I see in this one would be under in g4 with Carapazza but I haven't tracked as closely lately
 
I was kind of waiting until Lynn got out of this inning at 3-0 to stick up for him. Can't now. He hasn't been super great down the stretch, I took a shot on him today. He wasn't all the way there and McCullers continues to dominate this Sox lineup. Makes me worry for Game 5, if we get there. Still like the Sox tomorrow and in the series. But more tomorrow and in their first game in Chicago.
 
If Sox aren't putting up 5+/gm this series they're toast

I bet on them to do that
 
KJ said:
If Sox aren't putting up 5+/gm this series they're toast

I bet on them to do that
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I didn't expect them to do that here today, not with how McCullers seems to have so much of this roster figured out. But even at 3-0 I was OK. I figured Lynn for something like that. But five is going to be too much unless we can get to their bullpen. I hate to call games in the fourth inning, anything can happen, but assuming this holds, the Sox tend to be a good bounce back team. I still like 'em tomorrow.
 
Joe Public said:
I didn't expect them to do that here today, not with how McCullers seems to have so much of this roster figured out. But even at 3-0 I was OK. I figured Lynn for something like that. But five is going to be too much unless we can get to their bullpen. I hate to call games in the fourth inning, anything can happen, but assuming this holds, the Sox tend to be a good bounce back team. I still like 'em tomorrow.
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They lose today assume Lynn comes back on Monday and Giolito potential g5 on the road, he's the ace anyway

Lynn at home should be the play, he's not a guy that should wear his arm down much
 
really question La Russa picking Lynn for g1 considering his struggles vs HOU

not a fan of him in general, but my fade Valdez plan is still in tact
 
Giolito catching some money, not sure anybody will be unavailable from yesterday on either side unless i missed something while i had the game muted in the background since it wasn't competitive
 
Smaller with the lefty on the mound against CHW but going back to the same well:

Houston -120
Houston -1.5 +175

Yeah @GWarner27 unless I'm missing something I don't think any key arms are unavailable on either side
 
I trust Giolito today big time, better team wins and take this series back to Chicago 1-1

CWS +115

Will play them in game 3 too
 
PaintCrew said:
Good luck @KJ
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Back atcha mate!

Love this day, only day of the year we're guaranteed 4 postseason games scoping an entire day and that's after waking up and making sure there's nothing left to do before the 3 day Indigenous Day weekend. Salut!!
 
KJ said:
Back atcha mate!

Love this day, only day of the year we're guaranteed 4 postseason games scoping an entire day and that's after waking up and making sure there's nothing left to do before the 3 day Indigenous Day weekend. Salut!!
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It truly is one of those top sports weekends of the year and i love the 4 games all day (even better on a Friday). We got a ton of family and friends coming over to BBQ and drink tomorrow. Beautiful weather, sports all day, drinks, and all that will be missing is my Boilers doubling up someone else in yards and still finding a way to lose...life is good. Enjoy my friend!
 
The splits here favor Gio. Sox have seen Valdez plenty with 55+ ABs with an OBP of almost .320. Astros 30+ ABs vs Lucas and sub .180 OBP.
 
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GWarner27 said:
Gio might close a favorite
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Oh man, I don’t like that but i already bet sox. In every sport I like the angle of betting the team who opens as favs and closes as dogs. I trust the books more than the market that disagrees with their price.
 
I love Geo getting this much love, but it's happened all year and honestly it's rarely justified imo. Now, that said, I like the Sox today and I'm on the over. BUT, I was hoping for a better price after yesterday which, as Paint says, wasn't competitive.

The two things that worry me for the Sox in this series are that one, Houston is better defensively. Which you saw come into play yesterday. And two, as a team Houston crushes fastballs. Which you think, 'OK, well, shouldn't most MLB teams do that, why is that a problem.' Well, it's a problem when that's mainly how two of the four guys in this rotation are going to get over. Lynn lost yesterday and I assume they're going to pitch Cease in Chicago.

I don't have a problem with that, Cease at home has been great. That said, the first time Houston saw Cease this year in Houston they lit him up like a Christmas tree. So if you've got one guy who's already lost and another guy who the Astros have banged up. Twice. Well, sort of. When they played later in the year, Cease was at home and the Sox lost, but it was another game where McCullers held them to one run.

Point is, I still think this team can get there, but they need to make adjustments. Which has been my major worry about LaRussa since it was obvious this team had enough talent to win the division.

Oh, and I'm sure Hernandez isn't at second again today because this continues to be TLR counting on Leury to get hits for him. Which, I love the confidence, but man, you traded for a starting second baseman for a reason.
 
Joe Public said:
I love Geo getting this much love, but it's happened all year and honestly it's rarely justified imo. Now, that said, I like the Sox today and I'm on the over. BUT, I was hoping for a better price after yesterday which, as Paint says, wasn't competitive.

The two things that worry me for the Sox in this series are that one, Houston is better defensively. Which you saw come into play yesterday. And two, as a team Houston crushes fastballs. Which you think, 'OK, well, shouldn't most MLB teams do that, why is that a problem.' Well, it's a problem when that's mainly how two of the four guys in this rotation are going to get over. Lynn lost yesterday and I assume they're going to pitch Cease in Chicago.

I don't have a problem with that, Cease at home has been great. That said, the first time Houston saw Cease this year in Houston they lit him up like a Christmas tree. So if you've got one guy who's already lost and another guy who the Astros have banged up. Twice. Well, sort of. When they played later in the year, Cease was at home and the Sox lost, but it was another game where McCullers held them to one run.

Point is, I still think this team can get there, but they need to make adjustments. Which has been my major worry about LaRussa since it was obvious this team had enough talent to win the division.

Oh, and I'm sure Hernandez isn't at second again today because this continues to be TLR counting on Leury to get hits for him. Which, I love the confidence, but man, you traded for a starting second baseman for a reason.
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Reason I bet them today cause I feel like Sox hit lefties. Plus I like chasing road dog in these series, I didn’t play game 1 so not even in chase mode! Lol. I hate the line moving so much in Sox direction tho, I do pretty well playing teams who open as favs and get bet to dogs so hate being against that here.
 
2daBank said:
Oh man, I don’t like that but i already bet sox. In every sport I like the angle of betting the team who opens as favs and closes as dogs. I trust the books more than the market that disagrees with their price.
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math completely disagrees with this
 
KJ said:
We live in a world where science is fiction, gotta adapt
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I got a crazy high hit rate blindly betting teams who open as favs and close as dogs in every sport. To me the logic always been sound. The guys setting the opener are smarter than the money that moves it.
 
2daBank said:
I got a crazy high hit rate blindly betting teams who open as favs and close as dogs in every sport. To me the logic always been sound. The guys setting the opener are smarter than the money that moves it.
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Sometimes but there will always be personal bias with line setters

Not like computers are that smart either, they use yesterday and beyond which provides zero to me for predicting the future. I mean if you love betting on what happened yesterday enjoy your time warp

Why I hate stats and play a different game than stat geek
 
2daBank said:
I got a crazy high hit rate blindly betting teams who open as favs and close as dogs in every sport. To me the logic always been sound. The guys setting the opener are smarter than the money that moves it.
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that's literally the opposite of the efficient market hypothesis, but i would love to see the stats since i've been trying to disprove it
 
KJ said:
Sometimes but there will always be personal bias with line setters

Not like computers are that smart either, they use yesterday and beyond which provides zero to me for predicting the future. I mean if you love betting on what happened yesterday enjoy your time warp

Why I hate stats and play a different game than stat geek
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Yea we dont exactly agree on that philosophy. I’m big into stats and matchups. I think there tons of value in them, that said I don’t think they should be looked at equally or taken at face value
 
2daBank said:
Yea we dont exactly agree on that philosophy. I’m big into stats and matchups. I think there tons of value in them, that said I don’t think they should be looked at equally or taken at face value
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I rarely use previous performance and most of the time when I do...I use it to try to justify why it will be different this time
 
KJ said:
I rarely use previous performance and most of the time when I do...I use it to try to justify why it will be different this time
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Previous performance might not dictate future results but I damn sure can get a understanding of how a team gonna play against another based off what they have proven to do well and not do well in the past. (Maybe not nfl! Lol.)
 
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