After 12 Weeks....CTG Playoff Committee Projections...

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Few weeks off here. I was out of town the first week and you guys made it a 4 page discussion thread anyways but thanks to Tongue for tallying Votes. Last week seemed meaningless as we didn't have much movement...

Now, after today we do...and things will start to get interesting

My couple of quick thoughts...

-If TCU gets that 2-point conversion the whole B12 is eliminated, amirite?

-The SEC is officially the 'Big One'. It has turned into the Big Ten of 5-8 years ago with Ohio State.

-Things gonna get interesting now...Bama is a lock if they win out on name recognition alone. Notre Dame has the brand name. OU might be one of the best 2-3 left but what about the injuries? And now a win against Okie Lite carries a bit less weight. Can you imagine if Iowa beats MSU in title game? That is my hope just to mess with this system.

-Back to B12....is Baylor at all a factor if some upsets happen? Obviously that means Okie Lite beats OU. (and other upsets)





----------------------------



Gonna be fun...


Please rank 1 through 6 and I will tally the votes this week. You know the gig by now. Lets get 20+ voters please...
 
[TABLE="width: 98"]
<colgroup><col></colgroup><tbody>[TR]
[TD]Clemson
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Iowa
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Notre Dame
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alabama
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Florida
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Michigan St.
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


If TCU got the 2, then I'd say as of now the Big 12 would be out

ND will be there if they beat Stanford on the road. Some people are acting as though the win is a foregone conclusion. I have a preseason future on them, and I gave up on them early with all the injuries. Mighty effort to ge tthis far

Baylor? No
 
1. Clemson
2. Iowa

LOST ON ROAD
3. Michigan State by 1
4. Notre Dame by 2
5. Florida by 7

LOST ON NEUTRAL
6. Oklahoma and 6a. North Carolina

LOST AT HOME
8. Ohio State by 3
9. Alabama by 6
10. Baylor by 10
11. Oklahoma State by 10

OTHER 1-LOSS TEAMS
12. Navy by 17 (road)
13. Houston by 3 (road)
14. Toledo by 5 (home)

Setting up to be a great, great, great RIVALRY WEEKEND where all the games have these cool names (EGG, APPLE, IRON, CIVIL, BEDLAM), and you get some old rivalries (USC - UCLA, OhioSt - MICH, SCe-CLEM) with some new ones (IOWA - NEB & LSU - TexA&M).

Have a great Thanksgiving Week, CTG!!
 
1. Clemson
2. Notre Dame
3. Alabama
4. Michigan St.
5. North Carolina
6. Oklahoma
 
1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Oklahoma
4. Iowa
5. Baylor
6. Notre Dame
 
Last edited:
1. Clemson
2. Iowa
3. Michigan St
4. Notre Dame
5. Oklahoma
6. Alabama
 
Clemson
Alabama
Notre Dame
Oklahoma
Iowa
Michigan State

Going to be some crazy scenarios coming down to the wire.

Lets play the If Game.

Clemson & Iowa win out. Theres 2 automatic spots.
ND Beats Stanford, OU beats Okie State, Florida beats FSU & Alabama.

What 2 teams would go in there.
 
Judge Smails said:
1. Clemson
2. Iowa

LOST ON ROAD
3. Michigan State by 1
4. Notre Dame by 2
5. Florida by 7

LOST ON NEUTRAL
6. Oklahoma and 6a. North Carolina

LOST AT HOME
8. Ohio State by 3
9. Alabama by 6
10. Baylor by 10
11. Oklahoma State by 10

OTHER 1-LOSS TEAMS
12. Navy by 17 (road)
13. Houston by 3 (road)
14. Toledo by 5 (home)

Setting up to be a great, great, great RIVALRY WEEKEND where all the games have these cool names (EGG, APPLE, IRON, CIVIL, BEDLAM), and you get some old rivalries (USC - UCLA, OhioSt - MICH, SCe-CLEM) with some new ones (IOWA - NEB & LSU - TexA&M).

Have a great Thanksgiving Week, CTG!!
Click to expand...

good stuff

not sure why UNC is not getting more love, they have been on fire

Think they will beat Clemson
 
M.W. said:
And also a poor "best win" in Pitt.
Click to expand...

Can arguably say the same thing for ND. Although, I give them credit for scheduling name brands. Not saying that all of them are great, but names. 2 of 3 non-name brand teams are having great years (Navy and Temple).
 
booksbestfriend said:
Can arguably say the same thing for ND. Although, I give them credit for scheduling name brands. Not saying that all of them are great, but names. 2 of 3 non-name brand teams are having great years (Navy and Temple).
Click to expand...

Could be said about a lot of teams. Who is Bama's best win? Mississippi St? How strong is the Big 12, who knows they don't play anyone, except OU they did play Texas and Tennessee.
 
JunkYardDog said:
Could be said about a lot of teams. Who is Bama's best win? Mississippi St? How strong is the Big 12, who knows they don't play anyone, except OU they did play Texas and Tennessee.
Click to expand...

This time of year, one of the reasons teams have only one or zero losses is because they haven't played any of the other 0-1 loss teams. I think looking at opponent record overall is a useful stat when determining strength of schedule or record. You can take any team and build up or tear down their wins and losses. But if one team has played 11 teams with a winning record vs another team that's played 4, I think you can make an argument that one team is more deserving than the other
 
JunkYardDog said:
Could be said about a lot of teams. Who is Bama's best win? Mississippi St? How strong is the Big 12, who knows they don't play anyone, except OU they did play Texas and Tennessee.
Click to expand...

Take UNC and put Bama's name in it's place and where do we think Bama is in the CFP rankings? Heels simply haven't built the football equity yet. Plain and simple. There are many shitty scheds out there and schools with not great wins.
 
Carolina Guy said:
Take UNC and put Bama's name in it's place and where do we think Bama is in the CFP rankings? Heels simply haven't built the football equity yet. Plain and simple. There are many shitty scheds out there and schools with not great wins.
Click to expand...


Agreed and what's sad if that if UNC had beaten SoCar on the scoreboard, like they hammered them in the box score, they still probably wouldn't be in the Top 4. Sad actually
 
gps_3 said:
This time of year, one of the reasons teams have only one or zero losses is because they haven't played any of the other 0-1 loss teams. I think looking at opponent record overall is a useful stat when determining strength of schedule or record. You can take any team and build up or tear down their wins and losses. But if one team has played 11 teams with a winning record vs another team that's played 4, I think you can make an argument that one team is more deserving than the other
Click to expand...

Agree with with a lot of this. Not taking a shot at Bama, I think they are the best team. Just asking the ? who is their best win is against? Looking at the rankings not many of those 11 are in the Top 25. Not that the Top 25 is the ends all. That's what makes this so much Fun.
 
Schrute said:
Agreed and what's sad if that if UNC had beaten SoCar on the scoreboard, like they hammered them in the box score, they still probably wouldn't be in the Top 4. Sad actually
Click to expand...
I knew that game would be a slop fest and was on the under from the second the lines came out but I did not think they would drop one to us, but I actually thought we were potentially going to be decent this year compared to last year. It is sad that NC lost to us because they would be a legit contender right now. Completely hypothetical, what happens if UNC wins against Clemson in the ACC Championship?
 
ksimpsc said:
I knew that game would be a slop fest and was on the under from the second the lines came out but I did not think they would drop one to us, but I actually thought we were potentially going to be decent this year compared to last year. It is sad that NC lost to us because they would be a legit contender right now. Completely hypothetical, what happens if UNC wins against Clemson in the ACC Championship?
Click to expand...


I bet SoCar in that game. I thought you guys were going to be a 7-5, 8-4 team this year and UNC would be about the same. If UNC beats NCSU and Clemson then I think they deserve to be in the playoff and Clemson will not make the playoff. The committee values conference championships and I doubt they'll put 2 ACC teams in the playoff. Where it could get dicey is if NCSU beats UNC and then UNC beats Clemson. If that happened along with Stanford beating Notre Dame and Oklahoma St beating Oklahoma then you have complete chaos because you'll have Alabama and a 1-loss Big Ten Champion with 2 other spots up for grabs. This thing could still go a number of different ways
 
JunkYardDog said:
Could be said about a lot of teams. Who is Bama's best win? Mississippi St?
Click to expand...

Wisconsin, Tennessee, Mississippi State, LSU, Georgia, Arkansas, and TAMU are all better than Pitt according to the objective Sagarin rankings.

If we want to talk about one-loss Notre Dame, then Southern Cal and Navy are better wins, and Notre Dame also beat Pitt.
 
Still got this weekend

Iowa at Nebraska
MSU at PSU
FSU at Florida
UNC at Moo U
Couple of B12 games as well.

Everyone one of those games are loseable.

Crazy mess still to come regardless of where you went to school or who you root for.
 
Definitely lots of football to be played. And all the Tar heels have to do is win their next two games to get in.
 
JunkYardDog said:
Agree with with a lot of this. Not taking a shot at Bama, I think they are the best team. Just asking the ? who is their best win is against? Looking at the rankings not many of those 11 are in the Top 25. Not that the Top 25 is the ends all. That's what makes this so much Fun.
Click to expand...

To be honest, I haven't looked at a top 25 all season. Just not part of my handicapping. I've watched the playoff rankings out of interest, but that's pretty much it.
 
gps_3 said:
To be honest, I haven't looked at a top 25 all season. Just not part of my handicapping. I've watched the playoff rankings out of interest, but that's pretty much it.
Click to expand...

Handicapping by the Top 25 is a books best friend.

Should be an interesting weekend of Football.

Went to school at Nebraska(94-98), root for the Irish. Rough being an Irish fan during those years.
 
What would be hilarious is if Iowa and Mich St play in the conference championship both having lost to Nebraska.
 
M.W. said:
Definitely lots of football to be played. And all the Tar heels have to do is win their next two games to get in.
Click to expand...

that's a lovely thought and one I'd like to piss my bed for, but it isn't happening. Heels will be on the outside looking in even if they do beat Moo U and Clemson as an unbelievable amount of things would have to happen for this to take place. Just happy for the team as it has been too long. Let's do it again next year and we can revisit the opportunity to play in the CFP.
 
Carolina Guy said:
that's a lovely thought and one I'd like to piss my bed for, but it isn't happening. Heels will be on the outside looking in even if they do beat Moo U and Clemson as an unbelievable amount of things would have to happen for this to take place. Just happy for the team as it has been too long. Let's do it again next year and we can revisit the opportunity to play in the CFP.
Click to expand...

Believe UNC is either the only or one of a couple teams to play 11 games against power 5 opponents this season. But the other 2 are FCS so I think they do face an uphill battle should they win out. Best case for them is 2 loss Florida winning SEC, one loss Iowa win B1G, Notre Dame lose to Stanford, and Stanford lose to USC/UCLA
 
gps_3 said:
Believe UNC is either the only or one of a couple teams to play 11 games against power 5 opponents this season. But the other 2 are FCS so I think they do face an uphill battle should they win out. Best case for them is 2 loss Florida winning SEC, one loss Iowa win B1G, Notre Dame lose to Stanford, and Stanford lose to USC/UCLA
Click to expand...

yea, all you hear is how UNC played two FCS opponents (Minnesota backed out on us this year. Tennessee did it to us the year before. Another name program has done it as well.) but what you do not hear is UNC has beaten nine Div 1 opponents which is ranked 2nd in all of football. Gotta keep the narrative rolling.
 
Carolina Guy said:
that's a lovely thought and one I'd like to piss my bed for, but it isn't happening. Heels will be on the outside looking in even if they do beat Moo U and Clemson as an unbelievable amount of things would have to happen for this to take place. Just happy for the team as it has been too long. Let's do it again next year and we can revisit the opportunity to play in the CFP.
Click to expand...
If heels beat state and take down clemson in the championship they are in, not saying it will happen but if it did they would not be on the outside looking in.
 
Winners of ACC, SEC and B1G are almost assuredly in. Not guaranteed but those conferences should be feeling good
 
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