AFC Second Round Discussion Thread

Yeah this is pretty wild. And you're getting reduced juice on ML bets for sure. I just ran some different games by you're looking at 5-6% better vig.
 
twinkie13 said:
Yea KJ put me into it a lil while back….
I think I posted something like “I wish there was a way I could short this or that”.
It’s interesting
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Shorting is what interests me the most about this whole thing

The apps that do this and cater to daily fantasy stuff are all over the place and daily fantasy is illegal in AZ so Underdog is fighting to stay alive here. If they fail so will Prizepicks, Chalkboard, Perplexity, etc. But these joints that are doing broad futures on an exchange market don't seem to be under scrutiny. Even if a no at 97 cents is virtually guaranteed, it's got my attention and quite the spin on sports wagering.

Using L2KA fading Steez for example. If it was 98 cents to bet no on the Steez to win the SB, so $9800 yields a $200 gain, it's fair to compare that to whatever books offered on that bet if any did so. Kinda where I was going with all of this.

I mean on Kalshi you can bet on whether a word will or won't be said in an interview lol
 
Like for Creighton ML today. Double check my #s.

-120

$120 to win $100 = $220 payout. $100 win.

At 53 cents you risk that same 120 with .53 cent shares and you walk away with $226. $106 win.

Probably easier to do it $100 risk.

$100 -120 = $83 profit, $183 payout.

$100 at .53 cents a share = $188.70. Over 5 cents higher payout.
 
Inspekdah said:
Like for Creighton ML today. Double check my #s.

-120

$120 to win $100 = $220 payout. $100 win.

At 53 cents you risk that same 120 with .53 cent shares and you walk away with $226. $106 win.

Probably easier to do it $100 risk.

$100 -120 = $83 profit, $183 payout.

$100 at .53 cents a share = $188.70. Over 5 cents higher payout.
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Probably easiest to show it with the +100 dog in Providence.

100 to win 100.

47 cents would win $112.

Haven't made a trade but assume you lose another cent or two on each transaction?
 
Eh, okay. They hit you with fees with eats up most of the vig. 3-4%. I only threw in $25. If I did a $1000 wager I wonder if the fee would be significantly less?

But that takes most of the value out of anything other than long term futures.
 
Inspekdah said:
Probably easiest to show it with the +100 dog in Providence.

100 to win 100.

47 cents would win $112.

Haven't made a trade but assume you lose another cent or two on each transaction?
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Obviously the difference between side A and side B, whether it be yes/no, over/under, etc is the tariff but it seems fairly minimal in what I've seen
 
KJ said:
Obviously the difference between side A and side B, whether it be yes/no, over/under, etc is the tariff but it seems fairly minimal in what I've seen
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After fees you're right around where most MLs reside with books. I can't see if it drops dramatically if I did say a $1000 risk.
 
Inspekdah said:
After fees you're right around where most MLs reside with books. I can't see if it drops dramatically if I did say a $1000 risk.
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Remember these are allegedly markets, not sportsbooks so someone is staking the wager against whatever you take. Like stocks/options etc

That's what makes it legal. I won't go into and haven't researched who is actually betting yes in a market when "no" is 97%
 
KJ said:
Also I haven't even gone that far. Are fees fair or excessive?
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Just added some money to see if it went down on a $100 wager.

Providence ML is 48 cents. But they take $3.52 fee for the trade.

$100 ML bet gets you back $201. +101.

Not worth it for these....

For me with MVPs, Coach of the Years, etc. all not available in NY - this is where I will use it for.

And you get SOME value on futures.

Rams right now +393 you'd get on a trade after fees vs. +320 with books.

Michigan NCAAB though $100 wins back $518 for $418 after fees. Most books are +400 but you can find a +440. Not worth it at all.
 
Inspekdah said:
Just added some money to see if it went down on a $100 wager.

Providence ML is 48 cents. But they take $3.52 fee for the trade.

$100 ML bet gets you back $201. +101.

Not worth it for these....

For me with MVPs, Coach of the Years, etc. all not available in NY - this is where I will use it for.

And you get SOME value on futures.

Rams right now +393 you'd get on a trade after fees vs. +320 with books.

Michigan NCAAB though $100 wins back $518 for $418 after fees. Most books are +400 but you can find a +440. Not worth it at all.
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I've never looked at a one game type thing on there

Used it most to see where Miami was on CFP announcement and the market movement was insane during the UVA/Duke game. But really it didn't reveal that Miami was in until maybe 5 minutes before they were announced. The Notre Dame and Miami money were insane
 
I don't look at things like this as wagering. Thus why I don't have an account yet.

I need positive feedback and expect 80-90% success rate to get into this kind of thing which is completely different from sportsbooks. 80% would be disappointing.
 
KJ said:
I've never looked at a one game type thing on there

Used it most to see where Miami was on CFP announcement and the market movement was insane during the UVA/Duke game. But really it didn't reveal that Miami was in until maybe 5 minutes before they were announced. The Notre Dame and Miami money were insane
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Yeah I never had interest in that stuff because well I never had a shop to entertain it. I’ll certainly monitor this for stuff like that.
 
I also know the take from the holier than thou AZ legislature against daily fantasy. Not like I'm a fan of it but it holds legal merit.

And likely why what we deal with here will be prevalent nationwide soon in NCAA markets. After yesterday there will probably be a lot of states that squash college props. Still not sure why we don't get college team totals here but I know it's attached to the props thing. Hope for your cases that doesn't go away. But man that was pretty damning so I do expect player props in NCAA to disappear everywhere.
 
Inspekdah said:
Yeah I think that’s where it could be at.
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My 50 year old brain has logged a few things but one of my favorites is betting against something that isn't currently in place. NO meets that frequently. Betting on needing something to happen simply has not made a lot of sense over the years. Betting on dogs, NO, that bit when they don't need to do anything but remain average makes so much more sense and you aren't needing a damn thing to happen.
 
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Inspekdah said:
The argument will be Uncle Sam will want the same rake as the sportsbook. The old sin tax.
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I'm cool with sin taxes though

Any Joe can come up with write offs if needed

It really actually marries gambling and investing which is what we love talking about
 
Sorry for sloppy typing at 10am but the points remain. I'm fascinated moreso with anyone who fades the marketplace on these. It's a legitimate question as to who the 3% are that are funding your 98% "no" wager. Obviously they are out there but who and for how long?
 
Good talk fellas

Back to this week

Bills are going to be such a massive public dog and that should always be scary. Won't be close to wagers on Bills v Donks who noone (rightfully in my book) trust

Guessing over 75% tickets on Bills and I agree. Think the play in this one is Bills tt over fading the overvalued (imo) Donks defense

Not sure that calling a ball control game is how Buffalo approaches this so lots of passes. INT prop for Allen is a thing, Definitely Nix INT if this gets into a shootout
 
KJ said:
Good talk fellas

Back to this week

Bills are going to be such a massive public dog and that should always be scary. Won't be close to wagers on Bills v Donks who noone (rightfully in my book) trust

Guessing over 75% tickets on Bills and I agree. Think the play in this one is Bills tt over fading the overvalued (imo) Donks defense

Not sure that calling a ball control game is how Buffalo approaches this so lots of passes. INT prop for Allen is a thing, Definitely Nix INT if this gets into a shootout
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Bills ran for 200+ last time they played. I think it be crazy for them to throw more than run this week, let the oline push donks around. Despite the numbers they have piled up facing a bunch of crappy rush teams I still think donks d is built more so to rush the passer than stop the run. pretty confident last years playoff gm wasn’t a fluke in that regard. Bills oline and cook should eat.

I’d have to get pretty great odds to play Allen to throw a pick, he has only thrown a int in 3 of his 14 playoff games.
 
I have less conviction on DEN/BUF than I will if Denver wins

Autofade against them with NE and it will be priced perfectly
 
Denver and Houston have been two of the biggest luckboxes in recent history

Odds are that one will win but statistically NE/BUF is the AfC 'ship
 
KJ said:
Denver and Houston have been two of the biggest luckboxes in recent history

Odds are that one will win but statistically NE/BUF is the AfC 'ship
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What exactly about Houston is luck? I don’t understand what it is you have had against them all year? This defense is good enough to get to a sb.
 
2daBank said:
I don’t think it be as lopsided but not sure either team has changed all that much? I’d think being at home, nix having another season under his belt, playing again favors the better coach (Peyton). At end of the day I do expect it similar in the fact bills rushing attack controls a lot of the game. Basically I expect Donks offense to be better this go around but don’t see the defense having much more success than last time.
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Defense has Funga and Law this time around!
 
Inspekdah said:
Vrabel just needs to let Stroud hand him the game.

You insert 15 other QBs on that team and they are the SB favorites.
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Stroud fumbled 2x all year before last week, he threw 8 picks. Not sure how some ya’ll convinced he a turnover machine?
 
RetroRetrovk said:
Huge game for Allen. If you lose a divisional playoff game to Bo Nix after everything that has happened so far, you are just a guy who cannot get it done in the big moments.
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That's a terrible take. Look at Allen's numbers in the playoffs & honestly tell me it's been his fault they haven't gotten to a Super Bowl yet. He's been the reason they've been so close & this year's team might be the least talented since his playoff debut. They've averaged 27 ppg in his 13 playoff games. There's obviously blame to spread around when a team doesn't win big games, but it sure doesn't rest with Allen. No matter how important QB's are in today's NFL, it's still a team game.
 
2daBank said:
What exactly about Houston is luck? I don’t understand what it is you have had against them all year? This defense is good enough to get to a sb.
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They win despite their inept offense. Luck factor unfairly discriminates against teams that are awesome at getting into position to kick game winning FSs and I'm not sure how much value should be placed there with the current kickoff rules.

I actually laugh at having to talk you into believing in Stroud his rookie season. We are now polar opposites on that. Joe Flacco could lead them to a Super Bowl. I don't see how you find many advantages for Houston this week.
 
dg84 said:
That's a terrible take. Look at Allen's numbers in the playoffs & honestly tell me it's been his fault they haven't gotten to a Super Bowl yet. He's been the reason they've been so close & this year's team might be the least talented since his playoff debut. They've averaged 27 ppg in his 13 playoff games. There's obviously blame to spread around when a team doesn't win big games, but it sure doesn't rest with Allen. No matter how important QB's are in today's NFL, it's still a team game.
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I also can‘t stand when people reduce games to quarterbacks squaring off against each other. They are not starting pitchers.
 
KJ said:
They win despite their inept offense. Luck factor unfairly discriminates against teams that are awesome at getting into position to kick game winning FSs and I'm not sure how much value should be placed there with the current kickoff rules.

I actually laugh at having to talk you into believing in Stroud his rookie season. We are now polar opposites on that. Joe Flacco could lead them to a Super Bowl. I don't see how you find many advantages for Houston this week.
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Their defense is the best unit in the playoffs, adv Houston. Still not sold on pats defense, they have to blitz to create pressure and stroud has gotten really good against the blitz as this season has went on.
 
dg84 said:
That's a terrible take. Look at Allen's numbers in the playoffs & honestly tell me it's been his fault they haven't gotten to a Super Bowl yet. He's been the reason they've been so close & this year's team might be the least talented since his playoff debut. They've averaged 27 ppg in his 13 playoff games. There's obviously blame to spread around when a team doesn't win big games, but it sure doesn't rest with Allen. No matter how important QB's are in today's NFL, it's still a team game.
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Do you disagree that often it's been him failing in the spotlight he's paid handsomely for though? Others have succeeded in match moments on that stage and he hasn't. Not sure it's so much a knock but more an observation and I think many people would be cool if he gets passed it.

Hell it's not even the Super Bowl, it's just getting through the AFC first.
 
KJ said:
Do you disagree that often it's been him failing in the spotlight he's paid handsomely for though? Others have succeeded in match moments on that stage and he hasn't. Not sure it's so much a knock but more an observation and I think many people would be cool if he gets passed it.

Hell it's not even the Super Bowl, it's just getting through the AFC first.
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He has had some of both, he has had multiple times he put up what shoulda been the game winning drive late and then the d failed miserably, most glaring obviously being when they allowed mahomes to go down the field in 15 seconds or whatever it was. He has also had a few with the ball and needing to score and didn’t. I know last week I live bet the hell out of them before last drive, I had no doubt he was gonna get the td, I was scared to death he left too much time tho!
 
2daBank said:
Their defense is the best unit in the playoffs, adv Houston. Still not sold on pats defense, they have to blitz to create pressure and stroud has gotten really good against the blitz as this season has went on.
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Yeah we disagree and that's cool

I don't rate Houston D much higher than home Pats' D and I rate home Pats' O way higher than Houston road offense. Not betting anything pregame these days as I think live betting gives us so much more to work with and I hope Houston scores first.

For the record if you don't think after an insanely depressing last 8 weeks doesn't matter, every part of me want to see Purdy v Higgins, Hutch, Noel in the Super Bowl. Would be an ISU jizz fest. But I also know home Seattle and home NE are just better. And road NE is better than home Bo Nix so there's that. Rams might not win this weekend, they aren't in my equation.
 
Also why I don't bet futures is because as much as I love NE in the above post, no chance in fuck I'm putting money on anything Drake Maye when the spotlight is on him 24/7
 
KJ said:
Yeah we disagree and that's cool

I don't rate Houston D much higher than home Pats' D and I rate home Pats' O way higher than Houston road offense. Not betting anything pregame these days as I think live betting gives us so much more to work with and I hope Houston scores first.

For the record if you don't think after an insanely depressing last 8 weeks doesn't matter, every part of me want to see Purdy v Higgins, Hutch, Noel in the Super Bowl. Would be an ISU jizz fest. But I also know home Seattle and home NE are just better. And road NE is better than home Bo Nix so there's that. Rams might not win this weekend, they aren't in my equation.
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I have no clue how you can undersell Houston d so much? I understand the dislike of their offense, although i don’t get thinkng stroud is a turnover machine all a sudden when that hasn’t been the case. I agree pats offense is probably better but there no world pats d is anywhere close to as good as Texans d.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
I also can‘t stand when people reduce games to quarterbacks squaring off against each other. They are not starting pitchers.
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I dunno ... in recent history it seems to be a VERY large indicator of super bowl success.

You have a couple of bad QBs in there like Foles, Hurts, Brad Johnson, Russell Wilson, and Joe Flacco ... that is since 2001. I mean, the QB means a lot. Even the nineties you had Dilfer, Hostetler and Rypien where they were definitely not very good ... eighties McMahon, and Doug Williams... Not many wins for non-elite QBs the last 50 plus years.
 
2daBank said:
I have no clue how you can undersell Houston d so much? I understand the dislike of their offense, although i don’t get thinkng stroud is a turnover machine all a sudden when that hasn’t been the case. I agree pats offense is probably better but there no world pats d is anywhere close to as good as Texans d.
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I don't think I undersold Houston's defense anywhere. They are very good. I don't think they're much better than home Pat's defense. If that's a chaotic thought then I guess I'm an outlier.
 
RetroRetrovk said:
I dunno ... in recent history it seems to be a VERY large indicator of super bowl success.

You have a couple of bad QBs in there like Foles, Hurts, Brad Johnson, Russell Wilson, and Joe Flacco ... that is since 2001. I mean, the QB means a lot. Even the nineties you had Dilfer, Hostetler and Rypien where they were definitely not very good ... eighties McMahon, and Doug Williams... Not many wins for non-elite QBs the last 50 plus years.
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Crazy that if Eli gets in the HOF Russ should be a no brainer. Also sucks that Flacco has to be included in that group and I agree.

I wonder how my favorite NFL team of all time, the 2000 Baltimore Ravens with Trent Dilfer, would succeed in the offense happy NFL today.
 
KJ said:
Crazy that if Eli gets in the HOF Russ should be a no brainer. Also sucks that Flacco has to be included in that group and I agree.

I wonder how my favorite NFL team of all time, the 2000 Baltimore Ravens with Trent Dilfer, would succeed in the offense happy NFL today.
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I think they would do well but would they win it all? That defense probably the second best (85 bears) that I can remember
 
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