AFC Second Round Discussion Thread

Capaholic said:
This doesn’t make sense. Houston should have been favored by about 4.5/5 over Pitt (more) and NE should only be favored by about 1.5 here. (Less) So it’s the opposite situation.
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I wonder if the weather has anyting to do with this game. Pats have beat teams to death so far. Theyre number one because of that.
New England happens to be the best scoring differential team in the AFC with 28pts on offense and only 19 on defense. No one else is plus 9? Just sayin...
 
Loves2kickass said:
Nobody gave the Bills a shot last week against the hot Jags. They win a game and now it’s all in with their next game on the road against a rested #1 seed. That's called recency bias
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I thought it was nuts everyone loved the jags so much but obv I’m a bills fan. No recency bias here I think the bills will beat Denver as well. Haven’t bet it because they are at a clear rest disadvantage and injuries are a question for me.
 
blackcrow said:
Denver has given up 106 rushing yards to the Chargers, 45 yards to Philly, 77 to Houston, 115 to Green Bay and 83 to the Jags with only Indy (167 yards) and Washington (143 yards) having quite a bit of success on the ground. Tough to run on them.

However the Chargers threw for 300 passing yards, Philly had 280, Houston had 216, Green Bay had 276 and Jags had 279. For the Bills to win they need to throw the ball. Against the sides who made the playoffs, the Denver secondary has leaked passing yards.

Denver allowed 59 receiving yards to Chargers running back Hampton, 58 to Philly's RB Barclay, 2 to Houston''s RB Ogunbuwale, 19 to Green Bays RB Jacobs and 16 to Jags RB Etienne, so maybe Cook's receiving yards rather than his rushing yards is a better play?
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Maybe Cook receiving yards , but he's really been underutilized in that capacity...Awesome pass catching back Ty Johnson might be back after missing the Jags game. He could be a very nice bet vs the Broncos .
 
blackcrow said:
Denver has given up 106 rushing yards to the Chargers, 45 yards to Philly, 77 to Houston, 115 to Green Bay and 83 to the Jags with only Indy (167 yards) and Washington (143 yards) having quite a bit of success on the ground. Tough to run on them.

However the Chargers threw for 300 passing yards, Philly had 280, Houston had 216, Green Bay had 276 and Jags had 279. For the Bills to win they need to throw the ball. Against the sides who made the playoffs, the Denver secondary has leaked passing yards.

Denver allowed 59 receiving yards to Chargers running back Hampton, 58 to Philly's RB Barclay, 2 to Houston''s RB Ogunbuwale, 19 to Green Bays RB Jacobs and 16 to Jags RB Etienne, so maybe Cook's receiving yards rather than his rushing yards is a better play?
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none those teams run the ball as well as the bills imo. Last week I agreed bills had to throw to win, not saying they won’t here but I’d be shocked if cook didn’t get 20ish carries. If they can hold cook under 75.5 I’ll tip my cap, I just don’t see it. IMO it redic his number lower than last week. I honestly think bills oline can and will impose their will on Denver much like they did last year in playoffs.
 
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KJ said:
I think the general position for anyone who watched the game would be down on Houston after last night unless they look at the final score or box score only. That QB was not in a good place against a pretty suspect defense. Next game that defense will be incredibly better and b2b at Piit/at NE is going to suck for him I believe. NE likely gets a defensive score or at least a free TD on field position after a turnover in my view.
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I really don’t understand this crazy bias you have had against Houston for most this season? If you not diminishing how good their d is you now just assuming stroud gonna give the ball away every week? @Capaholic point is more than fair about the line compared to a chargers team Texans were clearly better than and the response is “look at stroud 1 gm sample last week”?
 
Capaholic said:
I need anyone to tell me how the NE line makes sense to them

This is the same line as this past week. There’s no metric or power rating or advanced stat that has the Chargers anywhere near the Texans. Sagarin and DVOA have Houston almost a TD better than LAC. So what am I missing before I pull the trigger. I’m not saying NE won’t win. I’m saying the line sucks to me
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we even saw it play out on the field w Texans beating chargers in La. I’m with you I’ll happily take the points. Everyone can point to stroud having a bad gm but Maye wasn’t exactly great and which qb is facing a better d this week than last?
 
2daBank said:
I really don’t understand this crazy bias you have had against Houston for most this season? If you not diminishing how good their d is you now just assuming stroud gonna give the ball away every week? @Capaholic point is more than fair about the line compared to a chargers team Texans were clearly better than and the response is “look at stroud 1 gm sample last week”?
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To be fair I would fade the Chiefs in their prime in the second week of b2b at Pitt and at NE this season. You don't think I want Houston? 3 ISU WR, I've watched more than enough to be attached and also annoyed with that offense this season. Honestly the only reason I'm not higher on NE to win by double digits is because I haven't watched enough of them and still want to not believe Maye is as good as he apparently is.

End of the day I rather Maye at home over Stroud on week 2 on the road and I do know that Houston defense is second to Seattle this season but NE at home isn't far behind. So that doesn't tip the scale. Not even sure I bet it but I understand the line and really wouldn't feel great about a Houston wager.
 
As bad as Stroud looked with the happy feet and the fumbles he made some amazing throws as well. Kirk looks to be ascending. And most importantly they actually had a rushing attack with Marks and Chubb. They are certainly live on Sunday imo.
 
aplous said:
As bad as Stroud looked with the happy feet and the fumbles he made some amazing throws as well. Kirk looks to be ascending. And most importantly they actually had a rushing attack with Marks and Chubb. They are certainly live on Sunday imo.
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Yes I agree with this and with either SEA or HOU defense you're always live but NE defense is stout as well. Regular season I don't think this is a 3 point line, more like 1/1.5 but the b2b Northeast road trips is something for me. My only pregame wager will likely be something like a Stroud pick or a NE defensive TD, not sure it's an ideal game to gamble much on really. I like the under like the rest of the world so live wagering after a score is really in play for me.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
All over Buffalo. I might stay away if Dobbins were healthy, but Denver's run game is nothing without him. No run game = no exploiting Buffalo's main defensive weakness. Seeing what Denver has done defensively against tougher competition makes me think that Buffalo can reach the mid-upper 20s. I don't see Nix keeping pace.
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Dont see anything on Dobbins? Whats his current status?
 
Capaholic said:
All I’m going to say about the other one is the same thing I said about Philly, which was true for about 52 minutes. The Bills have struggled against D like this.

A d that can sit back and only rush 4 and still get to the QB and cover straight up has given Buffalo fits. Forget who Surtain is covering, they’re done. It’s that they can cheat over with another guy on the other receiver or the TE. And Denver’s rush d is no slouch.

I fuckin hate both of these teams but it would be a mistake to devalue the scheme and fit of this matchup along with the short week/rest/altitide
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The coaching advantage is big on one side of the game for sure.
 
So Nico in concussion protocol but so is pats best corner, any updates on either? I assume it gonna be tough for Collins to clear since he had one week 7 also. If they both out feels kinda like a wash, Texans not really short on weapons. If that the case and they both miss Ive done well playing Hutchison props the games Nico has missed (regular number and alt’s!) his number was in the 20s both times and he went for 5-69 and 5-84. Previously it seemed like other guys got the bigger upgrades to prices but I think Hutchison actually takes over Nico spot and the others stay in similar roles.
 
Lexington 125 said:
I thought it was nuts everyone loved the jags so much but obv I’m a bills fan. No recency bias here I think the bills will beat Denver as well. Haven’t bet it because they are at a clear rest disadvantage and injuries are a question for me.
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All I saw and read was Jacksonville this and that.
 
Question for the forum. This isn't a Divisional round topic so I apologize if this question is in the wrong area. Just wanted opinions to help me understand these lines. They play each other this week and it's pretty much a PK or Den slight favorite.

To Win AFC
DENVER +260
BUFFALO +260

To Win SB
DENVER +775
BUFFALO +560

Both teams are the same for the conference but the Bills shorter odds for the SB?
 
Loves2kickass said:
Question for the forum. This isn't a Divisional round topic so I apologize if this question is in the wrong area. Just wanted opinions to help me understand these lines. They play each other this week and it's pretty much a PK or Den slight favorite.

To Win AFC
DENVER +260
BUFFALO +260

To Win SB
DENVER +775
BUFFALO +560

Both teams are the same for the conference but the Bills shorter odds for the SB?
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Weird but Bills to me have the best chance in a big game to beat the NFC. Wouldn’t see Denver having any chance.
 
Loves2kickass said:
Question for the forum. This isn't a Divisional round topic so I apologize if this question is in the wrong area. Just wanted opinions to help me understand these lines. They play each other this week and it's pretty much a PK or Den slight favorite.

To Win AFC
DENVER +260
BUFFALO +260

To Win SB
DENVER +775
BUFFALO +560

Both teams are the same for the conference but the Bills shorter odds for the SB?
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Oddsmakers might have the BUFFALO BILLS as the chalk in the SUPER BOWL vs anyone , or only -103 ml if they get there , While the Broncos would likely be 3-4+ point dogs to SEAHAWKS or RAMS imo .


PLUS they're already holding a shit ton of BILLS futures money from the summer straight through now ..
 
The Bills absolutely dominated the Broncos 31-7 last season in the playoffs in Buffalo.

Have both theses teams changed that much to assume it will be closer or the Broncos have a decent shot at winning this time around?

Denver expects to have Greenlaw back which should help against the run.
 
The WR room for the Bills is a mess. They have three healthy WRs: Khalil Shakir, Brandin Cooks, Keon Coleman. In the last two days they've lost Gabe Davis and Tyrell Shavers for the season. Joshua Palmer was placed on IR last week. Just like that, the room was cut in half.
 
Loves2kickass said:
The WR room for the Bills is a mess. They have three healthy WRs: Khalil Shakir, Brandin Cooks, Keon Coleman. In the last two days they've lost Gabe Davis and Tyrell Shavers for the season. Joshua Palmer was placed on IR last week. Just like that, the room was cut in half.
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They have Curtis Samuel and mecole hardman coming off ir. I’d expect both to be active. Both would have been ahead of Gabe and shavers on the depth chart had they stayed healthy. Palmer hasn’t been a factor at all this season so that's a non issue.

What they lose most is two really good blocking wrs- I would expect more 2 te sets and big personnel to get cook going.


Samuel had a nice game vs Denver last year
 
Loves2kickass said:
The WR room for the Bills is a mess. They have three healthy WRs: Khalil Shakir, Brandin Cooks, Keon Coleman. In the last two days they've lost Gabe Davis and Tyrell Shavers for the season. Joshua Palmer was placed on IR last week. Just like that, the room was cut in half.
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Don't think this is a game they would have loaded up with wr on the field anyways. Expecting lots of 3 TE sets , swing motion tackle Alec Anderson was bullying the Broncos last year.
Curtis Samuel and Hardman will likely be activated
 
Loves2kickass said:
The Bills absolutely dominated the Broncos 31-7 last season in the playoffs in Buffalo.

Have both theses teams changed that much to assume it will be closer or the Broncos have a decent shot at winning this time around?

Denver expects to have Greenlaw back which should help against the run.
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For one that was in Buffalo. Broncos at home, nix no longer a rookie making his post season debut. I think their d is better than last season.

I think with dobbins this would be a very closely played game but I don’t think RJ can do enough to keep Denver balanced.

Turnovers will be key I believe….
 
As far as expectations go, I’d shit on Keon too if I’m a Bills fan. I’d expect more from Opelousas. Still, as mentioned JA can win with those 3 in this situation I think.
 
As far as Nico I thought HOU kinda let him slide 🛝 on a close concussion earlier in the game. No way he plays, right?
 
I have a feeling TY may be out again for Bills. With the shortened week if he doesn't go today he's out. Definite blow to the pass game, if Denver keeps the Bills offense in 3rd and longs it will be TROUBLE for the Bills wr who even when all healthy had problems getting open.

Keon has a chance at winning the love of all the fans & teammates if he explodes. He is the best blocking wr left in the room (the only) he's getting max snaps this week. He's def going to get targeted as I highly doubt Surtain covers him. Big body with a chance to draw PI likely getting covered by Riley Moss who I believe has the most PI in the league.

Allen is smart enough to stay away from Surtain no matter where he is. If they are dumb enough to have him on Shakir, it will take him away from every downfield pass attempt. They won't! I think it could be a tight end game but Cook first. I think Cook has a superstar game and Allen makes a couple big plays. If Denver stops Cook 50 or less they likely win but I don't think that happens
 
Loves2kickass said:
Question for the forum. This isn't a Divisional round topic so I apologize if this question is in the wrong area. Just wanted opinions to help me understand these lines. They play each other this week and it's pretty much a PK or Den slight favorite.

To Win AFC
DENVER +260
BUFFALO +260

To Win SB
DENVER +775
BUFFALO +560

Both teams are the same for the conference but the Bills shorter odds for the SB?
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I don’t know this for sure but I’d assume they def have more liability in futures on bills than the donks.
 
aplous said:
No way Nico goes, he was woozy as hell + short week.

Gonzalez is already in stage 4 with limited practice so I think he’s 75% to play
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Nico had one week 7 also and missed week 8. 2nd one in a few months I’d say it unlikely he plays.
 
Loves2kickass said:
Question for the forum. This isn't a Divisional round topic so I apologize if this question is in the wrong area. Just wanted opinions to help me understand these lines. They play each other this week and it's pretty much a PK or Den slight favorite.

To Win AFC
DENVER +260
BUFFALO +260

To Win SB
DENVER +775
BUFFALO +560

Both teams are the same for the conference but the Bills shorter odds for the SB?
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This gives some perspective on all of it at Kalshi. Do you even look at the futures marketplaces like them compared to strictly sportsbook odds?

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Loves2kickass said:
Question for the forum. This isn't a Divisional round topic so I apologize if this question is in the wrong area. Just wanted opinions to help me understand these lines. They play each other this week and it's pretty much a PK or Den slight favorite.

To Win AFC
DENVER +260
BUFFALO +260

To Win SB
DENVER +775
BUFFALO +560

Both teams are the same for the conference but the Bills shorter odds for the SB?
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That's interesting.
 
B.A.R. said:
That's interesting.
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It's definitely showing the true odds of Buffalo winning the SB to be much different than Denver and I'm sure a lot has to do with the handle on Buffalo futures

But Denver is the clear third choice to rep the AFC behind NE and Buffalo. Not sure how helpful knowing that is in advance, seems pretty obvious to me that Denver and Houston would be behind NE and Buffalo but not like there's some inside info here
 
Inspekdah said:
So if I wanted to bet on say Buffalo or the Rams at 12% or 12 cents. If it hits I win back $1? Close to +833?
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Yes 12 cents to win a buck but for me the real kicker from a fade POV is the bets against and what those pay

I did see a tweet last year about someone who bet on Rory to not win the Tour Championship after round 1 and he basically put $5k down to get a payout of $5500 or so, basically -1000 I believe. 10% return on betting against someone to simply not win the golf tournament was what fascinated me.
 
KJ said:
Yes 12 cents to win a buck but for me the real kicker from a fade POV is the bets against and what those pay

I did see a tweet last year about someone who bet on Rory to not win the Tour Championship after round 1 and he basically put $5k down to get a payout of $5500 or so, basically -1000 I believe. 10% return on betting against someone to simply not win the golf tournament was what fascinated me.
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Do you have to wait on someone to buy your shares in that scenario?

Are people really running to the "window" and as you bring up dropping 89 cents for a NO?
 
Inspekdah said:
Do you have to wait on someone to buy your shares in that scenario?

Are people really running to the "window" and as you bring up dropping 89 cents for a NO?
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I don't have an account but I've heard nothing but positive. Been reading and paying attention for a few months now. Allegedly the posted numbers means that's what's being traded as a current market rate so I assume it's accepted the second you play it.
 
Loves2kickass said:
The Bills absolutely dominated the Broncos 31-7 last season in the playoffs in Buffalo.

Have both theses teams changed that much to assume it will be closer or the Broncos have a decent shot at winning this time around?

Denver expects to have Greenlaw back which should help against the run.
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I don’t think it be as lopsided but not sure either team has changed all that much? I’d think being at home, nix having another season under his belt, playing again favors the better coach (Peyton). At end of the day I do expect it similar in the fact bills rushing attack controls a lot of the game. Basically I expect Donks offense to be better this go around but don’t see the defense having much more success than last time.
 
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