AFC Second Round Discussion Thread

All over Buffalo. I might stay away if Dobbins were healthy, but Denver's run game is nothing without him. No run game = no exploiting Buffalo's main defensive weakness. Seeing what Denver has done defensively against tougher competition makes me think that Buffalo can reach the mid-upper 20s. I don't see Nix keeping pace.
 
DOUBLEUP4LIFE said:
Please just give us Brandin Cooks over at 19.5 again 🤑🤣...

23.5 is very nice too thou ...

Bills o line was excellent at pass blocking for the most part Sunday , if they do the same this week they should get to 24+ win or lose
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Pissed they took the one catch before half away from cooks. Still cashed 40+ and 50+ but 60+ woulda been nice!! Just grabbed some over 22.5.
 
2daBank said:
Pissed they took the one catch before half away from cooks. Still cashed 40+ and 50+ but 60+ woulda been nice!! Just grabbed some over 22.5.
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I knew once dip shit Romo said it was definitely a catch that it would be overturned ...That guy is a jinx , listening to him whine non stop about how serious Allen's potential injuries were almost made my ears bleed ...Wake up Tonya , Josh Allen is tough as nails, almost Superman like , you're just a pussy who would have quit after the first trip to the blue tent.


That's a great number considering Gabe Davis is done , and Shavers left the field yesterday .
Cooks appears to be the only WR capable of running deep routes ...Might change as they expect to call up Micole Hardman this week, but I can't see him taking away from Cooks playing time ...
 
DOUBLEUP4LIFE said:
I knew once dip shit Romo said it was definitely a catch that it would be overturned ...That guy is a jinx , listening to him whine non stop about how serious Allen's potential injuries were almost made my ears bleed ...Wake up Tonya , Josh Allen is tough as nails, almost Superman like , you're just a pussy who would have quit after the first trip to the blue tent.


That's a great number considering Gabe Davis is done , and Shavers left the field yesterday .
Cooks appears to be the only WR capable of running deep routes ...Might change as they expect to call up Micole Hardman this week, but I can't see him taking away from Cooks playing time ...
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😂 bout Tony “owww my back” Romo.

Didn’t even think bout Davis being out. I really don’t think it matters who they bring in, cooks is the best thing they got going at wr. guess the concern be Denver corners are better than jags but this just crazy low for the top outside option, and he put up 100 on eagles corners who bout as good as any. Not like cooks is running short routes so 2 catches outta get it done, 1 might do it. He has had 6 and 5 targets the last 2 games and smashed this number in both, he easily coulda had 100 again vs jags but Allen just missed him on a deep ball where he had a step or 2.. I’ll prob look at his 1st half number again also, that 9.5 last week was like stealing.
 
Loves2kickass said:
Buffalo has nothing but Allen. Cook rushed for 50 yards vs Jacksonville. Denver rested, best D in the league, best CB in the league at home.
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Weak evidence…Jax hasn‘t allowed 75 rushing yards to a team all year. Cook was literally the leading rusher in the regular season. Who cares about location, pretty sure cold won‘t bother Buffalo lol and it didn’t even bother Jax when they dropped 34 on Denver in Denver
 
Inspekdah said:
Yeah, not a fan of them really. And the offense is putrid at times. Bills weakness is vs the run and that rush attack for Denver is blah. If Ed Oliver returns they’ll get enough stops to win.
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I remember seeing a stat that Nix started passing way more heavily after Dobbins‘ injury. Denver just doesn’t have a replacement. McLaughlin is good for a 15-yard run in a game but that’s it
 
Didn’t we see donks/bills last year? Granted it was nix 1st playoffs and in Buffalo but I really don’t think anything is drastically different.

Anyone know how hurt Nico is for Houston?
 
VirginiaCavs said:
I remember seeing a stat that Nix started passing way more heavily after Dobbins‘ injury. Denver just doesn’t have a replacement. McLaughlin is good for a 15-yard run in a game but that’s it
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Is it the backs or are donks just not a good running team? Most ppl seem to think RJ Harvey is plenty talented enough, many expected him to win the job at some point. Dobbins for sure was way more productive than Harvey been but look at the defenses they were facing while he was the lead back compared to later in the year. Harvey had a similar gm to dobbins when they each had a go vs raiders.
 
2daBank said:
Pissed they took the one catch before half away from cooks. Still cashed 40+ and 50+ but 60+ woulda been nice!! Just grabbed some over 22.5.
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This is crazy to say but I think he might draw attention from surtain…. He’s the only deep threat and now both Gabe and shavers out for season with acl. Keon time! lol
 
Lexington 125 said:
This is crazy to say but I think he might draw attention from surtain…. He’s the only deep threat and now both Gabe and shavers out for season with acl. Keon time! lol
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Certainly possible. Still happy with 22.5. Not really looking to wheel his alt lines this week tho. I actually think donks Franklin is a fantastic wheel candidate this week and love his over 21.5.
 
Loves2kickass said:
Buffalo has nothing but Allen. Cook rushed for 50 yards vs Jacksonville. Denver rested, best D in the league, best CB in the league at home.
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So cook got shut down one game. Great rbs don’t normally get shut down two playoff games in a row. You really think Denver d better than Houston’s? I def do not. Credit to Jax d they were playing great

Rested is a def advantage here. Best cb in the league ok so they throw away from him. This instance does having the best cb in the league matter when Buffalo doesn’t even have a #1 to shut down? So what he shuts cooks out? Zero chance they have him on Shakir.

I actually think cook is huge here and would feel way more comfy if Ty is a go. Ray did fine in pass pro but they missed that option of Ty in the passing game.
 
Lexington 125 said:
So cook got shut down one game. Great rbs don’t normally get shut down two playoff games in a row. You really think Denver d better than Houston’s? I def do not. Credit to Jax d they were playing great

Rested is a def advantage here. Best cb in the league ok so they throw away from him. This instance does having the best cb in the league matter when Buffalo doesn’t even have a #1 to shut down? So what he shuts cooks out? Zero chance they have him on Shakir.

I actually think cook is huge here and would feel way more comfy if Ty is a go. Ray did fine in pass pro but they missed that option of Ty in the passing game.
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I’m almost for sure gonna be on cook rush props this week. He went for 120 on Denver last year in playoffs. Nice low number thanks to either jags being a team you should throw against or Denver d getting more respect than they deserve imo.
 
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Denver D for me has been so churched up by playing against so many shitty offenses this season and Bo Nix is a game manager at best. Perfect storm when it's a great D and a great game manager right? Not for me. That defense is avg/above average at best against an offense that plays offensive football. And if you simply have an offense and go into this game with the mindset of making Bo Nix outscore you, I think you have the winning ticket.
 
KJ said:
Denver D for me has been so churched up by playing against so many shitty offenses this season and Bo Nix is a game manager at best. Perfect storm when it's a great D and a great game manager right? Not for me. That defense is avg/above average at best against an offense that plays offensive football. And if you simply have an offense and go into this game with the mindset of making Bo Nix outscore you, I think you have the winning ticket.
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look at what good offenses, and some not so good (giants and Washington namely) did to donks this year. I don’t think their d is even in the conversation with Houston or Seattle. Jags were uniquely good against the run but not so great against the pass, that gm just set up perfect to be way more Allen than cook, don’t think that be the case here. On the other side just not sure donks run gm equipt to attack bills weakness?
 
2daBank said:
look at what good offenses, and some not so good (giants and Washington namely) did to donks this year. I don’t think their d is even in the conversation with Houston or Seattle. Jags were uniquely good against the run but not so great against the pass, that gm just set up perfect to be way more Allen than cook, don’t think that be the case here. On the other side just not sure donks run gm equipt to attack bills weakness?
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I think Buffalo hope for a shootout. Pretty simple. And I think they can dictate that pace. I'm not going to post a pregame team total over but that's what I favor and will likely have at least 6 wagers going on in the game live that involves betting on it after any kind of big defensive play by Denver and doing a slight hedge after a Bills TD. Takes a lot of attention I wasn't born with but think that's the play.
 
I need anyone to tell me how the NE line makes sense to them

This is the same line as this past week. There’s no metric or power rating or advanced stat that has the Chargers anywhere near the Texans. Sagarin and DVOA have Houston almost a TD better than LAC. So what am I missing before I pull the trigger. I’m not saying NE won’t win. I’m saying the line sucks to me
 
All I’m going to say about the other one is the same thing I said about Philly, which was true for about 52 minutes. The Bills have struggled against D like this.

A d that can sit back and only rush 4 and still get to the QB and cover straight up has given Buffalo fits. Forget who Surtain is covering, they’re done. It’s that they can cheat over with another guy on the other receiver or the TE. And Denver’s rush d is no slouch.

I fuckin hate both of these teams but it would be a mistake to devalue the scheme and fit of this matchup along with the short week/rest/altitide
 
Capaholic said:
All I’m going to say about the other one is the same thing I said about Philly, which was true for about 52 minutes. The Bills have struggled against D like this.

A d that can sit back and only rush 4 and still get to the QB and cover straight up has given Buffalo fits. Forget who Surtain is covering, they’re done. It’s that they can cheat over with another guy on the other receiver or the TE. And Denver’s rush d is no slouch.

I fuckin hate both of these teams but it would be a mistake to devalue the scheme and fit of this matchup along with the short week/rest/altitide
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But I think this D is average. I think that's why I don't think it's crazy to think the Bills can do a lot with very little against it. And the Bills offense can offer more than just a little when they're on.
 
Capaholic said:
I need anyone to tell me how the NE line makes sense to them

This is the same line as this past week. There’s no metric or power rating or advanced stat that has the Chargers anywhere near the Texans. Sagarin and DVOA have Houston almost a TD better than LAC. So what am I missing before I pull the trigger. I’m not saying NE won’t win. I’m saying the line sucks to me
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The line doesn't make sense which makes NE the play. Same situation with the line with last night's game and it was a easy winner
 
Lexington 125 said:
So cook got shut down one game. Great rbs don’t normally get shut down two playoff games in a row. You really think Denver d better than Houston’s? I def do not. Credit to Jax d they were playing great

Rested is a def advantage here. Best cb in the league ok so they throw away from him. This instance does having the best cb in the league matter when Buffalo doesn’t even have a #1 to shut down? So what he shuts cooks out? Zero chance they have him on Shakir.

I actually think cook is huge here and would feel way more comfy if Ty is a go. Ray did fine in pass pro but they missed that option of Ty in the passing game.
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Nobody gave the Bills a shot last week against the hot Jags. They win a game and now its all in with their next game on the road against a rested #1 seed. That's called recency bias
 
Loves2kickass said:
Nobody gave the Bills a shot last week against the hot Jags. They win a game and now its all in with their next game on the road against a rested #1 seed. That's called recency bias
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My play will be much more against this "outstanding" Denver defense than on the Bills. I think they can name their number if they play it right and I don't think it will take rocket science to do so. Think it might be the first time I'll be on the Bills in some fashion this year. Probably missing a team total somewhere but generally haven't been on them but this one seems ideal.
 
Loves2kickass said:
The Texans are the auto fade this week
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Yeah in sticking with my SEA/NE Super Bowl prediction I don't see a lot of concern being on both this weekend. Sucks as an ISU guy as SF/Hou would be an incredible matchup as a fan but I don't see that coming close to happening.
 
Capaholic said:
This doesn’t make sense. Houston should have been favored by about 4.5/5 over Pitt (more) and NE should only be favored by about 1.5 here. (Less) So it’s the opposite situation.
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I think the general position for anyone who watched the game would be down on Houston after last night unless they look at the final score or box score only. That QB was not in a good place against a pretty suspect defense. Next game that defense will be incredibly better and b2b at Piit/at NE is going to suck for him I believe. NE likely gets a defensive score or at least a free TD on field position after a turnover in my view.
 
KJ said:
I think the general position for anyone who watched the game would be down on Houston after last night unless they look at the final score or box score only. That QB was not in a good place against a pretty suspect defense. Next game that defense will be incredibly better and b2b at Piit/at NE is going to suck for him I believe. NE likely gets a defensive score or at least a free TD on field position after a turnover in my view.
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I get what you’re saying. I try not to take anything from what I just saw for any of my games. It happens, but I try to just look at stats, power ratings, matchups etc. All I said in the other message was purely on power ratings and not on the game.

If we are going by what we just saw I guess we should all take Bears, Bills and Pats.
 
Capaholic said:
I get what you’re saying. I try not to take anything from what I just saw for any of my games. It happens, but I try to just look at stats, power ratings, matchups etc. All I said in the other message was purely on power ratings and not on the game.

If we are going by what we just saw I guess we should all take Bears, Bills and Pats.
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I'm not really going by what I just saw though, I'm simply going by where the likely perception is and why the line is the way it is because the casual observer likely sees 30-7 but the real observer saw a ton of what worries people everywhere about Houston. Some will say they dominated the box score. Some will also say they had no business being in that game. NE -3 to me is a strong NE line when I think most people would say taking a FG with the better team is the way to play it. I'm not sure it is and I'm not sure HOU are the better team anyway. I figured -2/2.5 would be the strong line hold, not 3 and while that doesn't seem like much we all know the significance a -3 line holds in the NFL. 20-17 might end up being the score.
 
KJ said:
I think the general position for anyone who watched the game would be down on Houston after last night unless they look at the final score or box score only. That QB was not in a good place against a pretty suspect defense. Next game that defense will be incredibly better and b2b at Piit/at NE is going to suck for him I believe. NE likely gets a defensive score or at least a free TD on field position after a turnover in my view.
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CJ looked like an average 7th grader trying out for varsity in the first half ..
Could he really be that bad two weeks in a row ??
Is NICO playing ?

PATRIOTS v BILLS would be big $$ for the NFL ..3rd time is a charm ..Josh and Maye are the two best QBs in the AFC ( 2025 season) and it's not even close ..

Then again clearly any of these 4 teams could win the AFC .

Hoping for BILLS v PATS , would settle for BUFFALO at Houston 😜
 
2daBank said:
I’m almost for sure gonna be on cook rush props this week. He went for 120 on Denver last year in playoffs. Nice low number thanks to either jags being a team you should throw against or Denver d getting more respect than they deserve imo.
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Denver has given up 106 rushing yards to the Chargers, 45 yards to Philly, 77 to Houston, 115 to Green Bay and 83 to the Jags with only Indy (167 yards) and Washington (143 yards) having quite a bit of success on the ground. Tough to run on them.

However the Chargers threw for 300 passing yards, Philly had 280, Houston had 216, Green Bay had 276 and Jags had 279. For the Bills to win they need to throw the ball. Against the sides who made the playoffs, the Denver secondary has leaked passing yards.

Denver allowed 59 receiving yards to Chargers running back Hampton, 58 to Philly's RB Barclay, 2 to Houston''s RB Ogunbuwale, 19 to Green Bays RB Jacobs and 16 to Jags RB Etienne, so maybe Cook's receiving yards rather than his rushing yards is a better play?
 
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