AFC First Playoff Round Discussion Thread

Kinda want to play this like packers gm as bills not that different from bears far as trailing at half.

Jags 1st half ml/allen ov 229.5 passing +218

Hopefully bills fall behind and I’ll look to play them live.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Makes sense when you look at our quarterbacks, our defensive-first orientation, and our coaches (OCs as well)
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had to go back 2 seasons to find a total 51 or more. seems like a high total given the lack of opponent scoring at their house (20 ppg) and possibly telling that their only 3 losses came this year when they allowed 31+

idk. total seemed high tho
 
Inspekdah said:
Ryans should be able to confuse Rodgers again.

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That was Rodgers most-recent playoff game, too.

"The last time a DeMeco Ryans-led defense (then with the 49ers) faced Rodgers in the playoffs (2022 Wild Card round), Rodgers was sacked five times, threw no touchdowns, and the 49ers won 13-10."

Pretty sick. With the Jags out, Houston becomes Sagarin's top-rated AFC team. Only a 2.5 point differential between them and #1 Seattle. In part due to most-difficult strength of schedule (#3 NFL) among all the remaining playoff teams. I'd love to see what DeMeco can come up with if he gets a chance at a bye week focusing on a singular target.
 
Going back to 2016 Tomlin 0-6 SU and ATS playoffs. Zero 1Q points scored. Outscored 73-0 1Q. Outscored combined 230-148. If you wanted to be a dick about it, you could say the Texans had a chance at hitting the over by themselves. But that statement would be aggressively arbitrary. It's 2026, after all.
 
SIAP from the WSJ....Chaos this weekend:


Put simply, this was the year that the NFL’s Wild Card weekend lived up to its billing.

Which isn’t always the case. The first-round of the playoffs usually produces a bunch of mismatches that lack oomph. In fact, since the league expanded to a 14-team postseason in 2020, no wild card round had ever had more than a single fourth-quarter lead change across all six scheduled games.

But this year has already produced 12—and that’s before the Houston Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers square off on Monday night.
 
austinhous said:
Going back to 2016 Tomlin 0-6 SU and ATS playoffs. Zero 1Q points scored. Outscored 73-0 1Q. Outscored combined 230-148. If you wanted to be a dick about it, you could say the Texans had a chance at hitting the over by themselves. But that statement would be aggressively arbitrary. It's 2026, after all.
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I agree and I like Houston a lot. Voodoo shit happening this week and in most Steelers games and Tomlin is undefeated at home on MNF but I’m still playing it. This is an elite Texans D and I think they dominate. I bet 1Q and 1H the heaviest with some ML parlays.
 
Speaking of voodoo, the Steelers have kicked off to start the game and received to start the 2nd half the last 7 games in a row. They've won 5 of 7 coin tosses and the two they lost to Miami and Cleveland, those teams decided they wanted the ball first. A lot of their recent success stems from end of half/start of 2nd half double up opportunities.
 
Tonight's game is not normal and should not be bet as such. The Steelers are a total wild card and their games are completely random. Either they will get the complete shit kicked out of them, like 24-3, or a coin flip at 31-30. The only thing I feel confident with is that the Texans will find a way to put up 20. So I got Texans TT over 19.5 and 1H 10.5, 1H Texans -1.5, full game -3, over 38.5 and a whole pile of alt lines on all of those aforementioned bets at odds ranging from +100 to +2,500. I'll figure I'll score big on something tonight.
 
gamer said:
Tonight's game is not normal and should not be bet as such. The Steelers are a total wild card and their games are completely random. Either they will get the complete shit kicked out of them, like 24-3, or a coin flip at 31-30. The only thing I feel confident with is that the Texans will find a way to put up 20. So I got Texans TT over 19.5 and 1H 10.5, 1H Texans -1.5, full game -3, over 38.5 and a whole pile of alt lines on all of those aforementioned bets at odds ranging from +100 to +2,500. I'll figure I'll score big on something tonight.
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If I trusted Texans to score tds and not kick fgs I would unload on them but without long tds these fools will kick 4-5 fgs. Really the only way I see Steelers hanging in game, can’t imagine Texans d giving up more than 17 to this offense.
 
Steelers don’t lose at home on MNF. Hou has not won on the road in the playoffs. All that said, I’d be shocked if Hou does not win comfortably. Hope I’m wrong, as I’m on my way to the game, but that’s my gut. But it is the NFL so anything can happen!
 
I mixed Nico props with TX ML
Likely won’t happen but I’d love to Pitt score early but the books will be sharp anyways…

I’m open to suggestions as always
 
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