AFC First Playoff Round Discussion Thread

KJ said:
Dome team, cold weather. Don't underestimate it. Collectively we NEVER do, yet somehow this Houston team is so spectacular they don't get mention of that and this Steelers team is so shitty they don't deserve that respect? Cool!

Just goes against everything we've ever brought up on this site. Apparently Houston are immune to this.
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I usually always think about this and was impressed by the Texans who many think “beat” the Chiefs on the road in Arrowhead last year. It was cold - around 20.
 
2daBank said:
Think it safe to say packers offense was probably better than this Steelers version also. I dunno what the flying fuck the ravens were doing on d last night? Like why the hell were they playing zone that seemed to open up middle the field? Steelers get DK back but pretty confident Houston corners can handle him without having to get picked apart in middle.
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I was confused by the Ravens horrific defense all season long. The wheels finally fell off a couple of years after the brains of it all went to Seattle.
 
Inspekdah said:
I was confused by the Ravens horrific defense all season long. The wheels finally fell off a couple of years after the brains of it all went to Seattle.
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Yea McDonnell really good. It just don’t take a great defensive mind to think taking away the middle the field probably woulda been a good idea!!
 
KJ said:
Dome team, cold weather. Don't underestimate it. Collectively we NEVER do, yet somehow this Houston team is so spectacular they don't get mention of that and this Steelers team is so shitty they don't deserve that respect? Cool!

Just goes against everything we've ever brought up on this site. Apparently Houston are immune to this.
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It don’t bother me as much for a team that hangs its hat on d compared to a team like lions that rely on offense and have a qb known for struggling in cold. Stroud played at Ohio st so not like he hasn’t thrown in cold. I dunno bout Pittsburg but it unseasonably warm here this week. I hardly trust weather man for a forecast this far out but I see 40s in Pittsburg over next weekend, that hardly concerns me.
 
C-MAN said:
Texans are 0-6 all time in road playoff games. I doubt they were favored in too many of those games, but worth mentioning.
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Already played Steelers. I get the great defense but don't trust Stroud and that team going into Pittsburgh on a Monday night.
 
I actually now am sad that the Chiefs are out of the playoffs. Without them to cheer against, and without Ravens or Lions to cheer for (my secondary fan teams this year because I picked them each to go to the superbowl - yeah i suck), I don't have much interest. Since I am not betting it, I likely won't watch a game until the Superbowl.

I guess I could arbitrarily pick a team like the Rams and cheer against them .... nah ... I will do yard work on Sundays this year. Product is unwatchable.
 
twinkie13 said:
I get it too…I’m betting on Allen
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Good luck brother , Mcdumbfuck sucks on the road in the playoffs (0-5) ...The Bills haven't won on the road in the playoffs since 1992.
I sure hope you're right , but down a corner , the best DT and several other key defenders limping the red hot Jags are a horrible matchup.
Wouldn't be surprised to see the Bills lose by 3+ scores .
 
CPA-hole said:
Bills/Jags will be fun.
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I remember that game in 2018 I believe...

The amount of tables being bought down there by Bills fans for tailgating was hilarious. As was the amount taken on the planes.

We have to expect a heavy Bills presence, right?
 
2daBank said:
That will happen when you run off 8 straight just smashing ppl. Hoping that balances out as week goes on. Surely be some bills love around with the whole “this Allen year” stuff.
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Reminds me of my Lions in 1995...

3-6 records and rolled off 7 straight to end the season. Record setting offense that season.

Wildcard game at Philly lost like 58-37.
 
C-MAN said:
Hou -3 seems right to me. The Steelers offense is going to struggle mightily against this defense. AR8 cannot handle the pressure like he used to. I’d be shocked if they get to 17 points. On the flip side, it’s hard to trust CJ Stroud, especially outdoors in a hostile environment, and Houston’s run game is below average. Huge advantage for Pittsburgh to get this game at home on Monday night (I believe they are undefeated at home on MNF under Tomlin). Hou a much better team, but I expect a close, low scoring game in this scenario. Something like 18-15 seems about right. FG props may be in play.
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Great thoughts here.

Houston should win this game but I would only bet the ML here. With their propensity for FGs this one should stay semi right.
 
B.A.R. said:
Moreso the old Baltimore and Pitt games.
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Kinda what I was getting at. Not the wide open 50 yard TD bombs we were seeing last night. Hines Ward/Ray Lewis days.

Pitts/Houston had some good playoff battles back when they were in the old AFC Central. Houston got jobbed back in the '79 AFC championship in Pittsburgh. Man, Steeler voodoo goes back a long time.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
What about beating KC? Carolina by 16? Chargers by 29?
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They destroyed LAC. And it was at home and this game is at home. Guess I just didn’t value that as it was a 1pm game but yes this has turned out to be a good win. And you can only play who you play. But man they got into some back and forth games vs David Mills and the Raiders.
 
Inspekdah said:
They destroyed LAC. And it was at home and this game is at home. Guess I just didn’t value that as it was a 1pm game but yes this has turned out to be a good win. And you can only play who you play. But man they got into some back and forth games vs David Mills and the Raiders.
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Mills was the collapse game but yeah, Jake Browning, too. Really any pass attack with very good pass-catchers killed us. Chase kept getting so much separation, as did Brock Bowers. It's easy for any pro quarterback to hit wide-open receivers, so the name of the quarterback i'd say is irrelevant for us. The Cardinals hurt us too with Wilson and McBride, both of whom are very good.
 
I think Kincaid healthy is a different animal this season and I think he can get open vs Jax.

Seems as if people are assuming Cook will get shut down…. Highly doubtful

McDermott gets a ton of criticism (myself included) but nobody has mentioned how good the defense has been in second half’s this season. I think he’s doing the best he can with what he has on defense.

I worry about the bills not generating enough of a pass rush or Trevor taking off. Have to think Bosa needs to have a game.
 
Lexington 125 said:
I think Kincaid healthy is a different animal this season and I think he can get open vs Jax.

Seems as if people are assuming Cook will get shut down…. Highly doubtful

McDermott gets a ton of criticism (myself included) but nobody has mentioned how good the defense has been in second half’s this season. I think he’s doing the best he can with what he has on defense.

I worry about the bills not generating enough of a pass rush or Trevor taking off. Have to think Bosa needs to have a game.
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I don’t think shut down so much but def think it look a lot closer to the Philly gm than cook going off. I actually think both defenses match up pretty well with the teams offensive strengths, super tempted to play the under now that it been pushed past 51, 27-24 feels kinda right to me as the high side. Agree with you te’s can work jags, I’ve seen that numerous times this year, the concern is without any wr worrying them can jags focus more on them? Bowers did go off against them and not like raiders flush with WRs either. What your thoughts far as total?
 
No way I would lay 3 or 3.5 with Texans playing in Pittsburgh on a Monday night. Just not happening. Rodgers is a "wily veteran" and a Super Bowl winning QB. I have no idea what will happen but I'd feel like a fool if I lost $$ betting on Texans. I'll be rooting for Texans but not wagering on them
 
@2daBank over or nothing for me in this one, especially if the jags happen to get up early. The questions at kicker are keeping me off a total right now. Bills could be opting for going for it over fg attempts tough to cap the unknown factor of potentially a new kicker

I think if you like the under 2ndh could be the way to go. As I said mcd 2ndh d this season has been solid. I have a hard time seeing either team getting held under 24 so I won’t be on any under
 
bones said:
No way I would lay 3 or 3.5 with Texans playing in Pittsburgh on a Monday night. Just not happening. Rodgers is a "wily veteran" and a Super Bowl winning QB. I have no idea what will happen but I'd feel like a fool if I lost $$ betting on Texans. I'll be rooting for Texans but not wagering on them
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I think that’s the general consensus given the crazy stat of the week.

I happen to think it ends horrifically for Rodgers
 
bones said:
No way I would lay 3 or 3.5 with Texans playing in Pittsburgh on a Monday night. Just not happening. Rodgers is a "wily veteran" and a Super Bowl winning QB. I have no idea what will happen but I'd feel like a fool if I lost $$ betting on Texans. I'll be rooting for Texans but not wagering on them
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I think I’d feel worse betting Steelers and watching them score 13 points. That said I’m less excited to bet a side in this gm than any others besides maybe rams/panthers. Over 3.5 total fgs -155 doesn’t seem like a bad price.
 
Bills moved to a +1 on Betrivers- anyone else see a book move them to a dog yet?


Team total now 25.5-120 there & I still see 26.5 everywhere else....

Will the Bills score 4 tds? I think yes. I'll tip my cap if the Jags can shut down Cook & Allen. No interest in anything under related in this one. Total high for good reason
 
KJ said:
I love to study line movement more than just read into it. It's fascinating to me.
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It’s interesting stuff. While I don’t use it as the be all end all there absolutely things I can spot that seemingly tells. I stopped playing mlb overnights years ago cause whenever I beat a line by 20 cents or more it was pretty much a foregone conclusion my bet was toast. I kinda been noticing it with props this year also, strictly cause circumstances I was playing a lot of them earlier in week than normal and I swear my bets where I was on wrong side of significant moves played out way better than when I actually beat close by decent amount. When I started pointing this out with mlb I had countless ppl tell me I was wrong and that if I’m consistently beating closes like that long term it would play out in my favor but I’ve been paying attention to that for 10+ years now on mlb and I’ve never found that to be accurate, I understand the logic but it just doesn’t play out in the real life scenario. I don’t think it as applicable in playoffs but regular seasons right or wrong it absolutely something to me, I’ve never just faded it but it keeps me off a lot of losing plays.
 
2daBank said:
It’s interesting stuff. While I don’t use it as the be all end all there absolutely things I can spot that seemingly tells. I stopped playing mlb overnights years ago cause whenever I beat a line by 20 cents or more it was pretty much a foregone conclusion my bet was toast. I kinda been noticing it with props this year also, strictly cause circumstances I was playing a lot of them earlier in week than normal and I swear my bets where I was on wrong side of significant moves played out way better than when I actually beat close by decent amount. When I started pointing this out with mlb I had countless ppl tell me I was wrong and that if I’m consistently beating closes like that long term it would play out in my favor but I’ve been paying attention to that for 10+ years now on mlb and I’ve never found that to be accurate, I understand the logic but it just doesn’t play out in the real life scenario. I don’t think it as applicable in playoffs but regular seasons right or wrong it absolutely something to me, I’ve never just faded it but it keeps me off a lot of losing plays.
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Well I guess i‘ll go cry for my Jags now
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Well I guess i‘ll go cry for my Jags now
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lol. I’ve always found with mlb it far less applicable in playoffs. I do remember a long long time ago someone I knew was huge on playing teams that open as favs and flip to dogs. I’ve never really tracked it but it has def been a decent rule of thumb for me to avoid dogs I like who flip to favs. Not like any this shit an exact science anyways, shit don’t decide what happens on the field just things I find interesting. Not gonna lie I’m scared of jags, lol. If this was mlb I’d be terrified of my eagles -3 at this point but I really don’t pay attention to nfl numbers like I do mlb and again it playoffs which with mlb I’ve never found it holds as true as regular season.
 
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