AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread

wow, was off on the Bills game, I guess being undefeated at home doesnt matter.

I see-8 KC and Bills PK at my book
 
Hoping for a healthy injury report for the BILLS ...

They were extremely banged up when they played in Baltimore this season ...
No Taron Johnson , Bernard , Molino wasn't back yet , Rapp got hurt in game ...
 
That Ravens/Bills total is higher than I hoped, but no way would I touch the under. Should be a shootout.
 
Strangely saw all 5 games well thus far.

I think you can safely include KC in any ML parlay or tease you do this week.

I just think Baltimore is a better all around football team. Last year they were the 5th best DVOA team of all time. This year they were 7th of all time. Market has priced in Baltimore's talent advantage. Like many of Baltimore's Ghosts of Playoffs past, if Buffalo gets a lead and they have to play catch up, it's just not what they do well. Hard lean Baltimore, but may sit out and enjoy hopefully an instant classic.
 
C-MAN said:
Texans hung with Balt last year until the 4Q. I remember thinking they were a year away. Not sure yet.
Click to expand...
I thought Stroud was going to be something special the way he played in his rookie preseason. He seemed to have "it" but has simply regressed a ton this season. I guess as a sophomore it's not smart to just say one year wonder because they did still in that shitty division but it's just not the same guy I saw at the beginning of last season. KC just likes to keep games close is a real situation.
 
Certainly not betting Ravens/Bills pregame, it could set up to be a live betting over type of game any time either team gets a stop. For me the fatal flaw for Denver was not have a spy on Josh Allen and he just ran at will and the Bills spied Nix perfectly. I didn't watch much Denver this season but from what I saw Nix was the goods in that game, he just had a couple passes that professional football players should never drop.

I don't believe that JACK Harbaugh will make the mistake of not having a spy. Early in the season a team of us could put up 30 on that Ravens pass D but it seems to at least have come together now.
 
DOUBLEUP4LIFE said:
Figures my youngest has his 1st soccer game of the indoor season at 7pm ...Have to imagine there is a 98% it gets cancelled..Can't see any red blooded Western New Yorker showing up
Click to expand...
There enough Bills fans here that it would get cancelled lol

Back when the Cards played at ASU and the Bills were in town it was obviously mostly Bills fans but the one thing that stood out to me were the six buses in the tailgate that actually came from Buffalo on basically a long road trip. They literally left, came for the game, then turned around and went back. No hotels involved. I don't know how long it takes for a bus to get to Tempe from there but I have to assume there were at least three bouts of sleep sitting up in there for those folks. Crazy.
 
KJ said:
There enough Bills fans here that it would get cancelled lol

Back when the Cards played at ASU and the Bills were in town it was obviously mostly Bills fans but the one thing that stood out to me were the six buses in the tailgate that actually came from Buffalo on basically a long road trip. They literally left, came for the game, then turned around and went back. No hotels involved. I don't know how long it takes for a bus to get to Tempe from there but I have to assume there were at least three bouts of sleep sitting up in there for those folks. Crazy.
Click to expand...

My first experience with this ( 1989 ?) was taking a Bus to Indianapolis for a BILLS game. Bar/restaurant on Military/Sheridan ( Now Mooney's) used to send 2+ busses to almost every road game ( several other bars did as well ).
Think it was like $80-$100 for transportation, game ticket ,and all you could Drink/eat ( Kegs on busses / shots of whiskey/tequila etc .) ..Pizza on the way , grilled wings etc once we arrived

The back of the bus had a curtain across where people would go to rip bong hits and or do a line.
This started in the parking lot at the bar as we left Saturday night around 6pm.
People that wanted to nap the next morning went on one bus , but the party never ended on our bus. Right up to kickoff....

Went to at least 8 road games from 89-95 this way ...The most fun was road playoff game in Miami($160) ..We were there for 3 days without a hotel , I don't remember anything other than the actual game in Miami ( sobered up ), and not being able to get it up🙃🥵 for some very spicy red head that I hooked up with from one of the other busses .
 
Last edited:
DOUBLEUP4LIFE said:
My first experience with this ( 1989 ?) was taking a Bus to Indianapolis for a BILLS game. Bar/restaurant on Military/Sheridan ( Now Mooney's) used to send 2+ busses to almost every road game ( several other bars did as well ).
Think it was like $80-$100 for transportation, game ticket ,and all you could Drink/eat ( Kegs on busses / shots of whiskey/tequila etc .) ..Pizza on the way , grilled wings etc once we arrived

The back of the bus had a curtain across where people would go to rip bong hits and do a line.
This started in the parking lot at the bar as we left Saturday night around 6pm.
People that wanted to nap the next morning went on one bus , but the party never ended on our bus. Right up to kickoff....

Went to at least 8 road games from 89-95 this way ...The most fun was road playoff game in Miami($160) ..We were there for 3 days without a hotel , I don't remember anything other than the actual game in Miami ( sobered up ), and not being able to get it up🙃🥵 for some very spicy red head that I hooked up with from one of the other busses .
Click to expand...
Well the lines in the back would certainly contribute to your functional problem. If you're were really there to get laid you should have just stuck with the bong rips lol
 
Starting to feel like the only way the Bills/Ravens game goes under is if a qb gets knocked out of the game or the Bills just dominate from the start. Both teams will score 24+ could be 17-10 going into the 4th & go over. I can see a 21+ pt quarter easily.

If we were to go down the roster are the Ravens the team with more talent overall across the board? Yes.

I just don't think the numbers tell the whole story here.

Defensively the Bills are fully healthy right now. That hasn't been the case all season. Milano not only back but looking in very good form, Bernard playing at a very high level & lead the team in tackles last week. Rousseau had 2 tfl & a sack last week. Him and Oliver will have to play great to disrupt the Ravens O. It's going to come down to stopping Henry for sure, and Oliver got OWNED last time. I don't think solid players forget that kind of thing- has to be horrible watching film on that Henry run all week long. Balty just him them with the wham inside & the holes were massive. Now I do expect the Bills D line to perform way better but of course Ravens Oline will win some battles. There will be holes but this time around Taron J is on the field. He's no secret anymore but one of the best nickle corners vs the run. Rapp is a thumper but missed assignments in the passing game worry me with him.

Knowing McDermott I believe he will gameplan to take away Henry & live with the consequences of Lamar making plays. Benford/Douglas are good enough to man up on Balty wrs- I think we may see more man coverage or at least I think they should. Bills will be aggressive and try to stop Henry before he gets going. They know if the Ravens control LOS it's over. I said it before the Broncos game the Bills D is flawed but still better than most think.


So will the Ravens control the line of scrimmage? Question of the season for me. Then there's the other side of the ball.

The Bills offensive line is GREAT. I was terrified when it looked like Dawkins hurt his shoulder because he's been unreal. Came back like 2 plays later. There's a reason why Cook put up the numbers he has all season long. Everyone is asking how the Bills stop the Ravens run game but everyone just thinks the Ravens will stop Buffalo's run game? How do they get to Allen before he escapes and exploits the secondary?

One thing Buffalo has going for it- outside of the QBs IF they take away henry (big if) the likelihood of a win is high. If the Ravens take away one offensive weapon Allen will find another matchup to win. Curtis Samuel was an absolute non- factor all season. His sole regular season TD helped beat KC & all of a sudden he's in the mix post season. Ty johnson has been a weapon all season long but that TD catch vs Denver was unreal. On an extended play Allen can look to anyone in addition to taking off.

I think having the #2 seed here is a big advantage and Lamar can keep his MVP trophy because Allen will not be denied at home this time.
 
Lexington 125 said:
Starting to feel like the only way the Bills/Ravens game goes under is if a qb gets knocked out of the game or the Bills just dominate from the start. Both teams will score 24+ could be 17-10 going into the 4th & go over. I can see a 21+ pt quarter easily.

If we were to go down the roster are the Ravens the team with more talent overall across the board? Yes.

I just don't think the numbers tell the whole story here.

Defensively the Bills are fully healthy right now. That hasn't been the case all season. Milano not only back but looking in very good form, Bernard playing at a very high level & lead the team in tackles last week. Rousseau had 2 tfl & a sack last week. Him and Oliver will have to play great to disrupt the Ravens O. It's going to come down to stopping Henry for sure, and Oliver got OWNED last time. I don't think solid players forget that kind of thing- has to be horrible watching film on that Henry run all week long. Balty just him them with the wham inside & the holes were massive. Now I do expect the Bills D line to perform way better but of course Ravens Oline will win some battles. There will be holes but this time around Taron J is on the field. He's no secret anymore but one of the best nickle corners vs the run. Rapp is a thumper but missed assignments in the passing game worry me with him.

Knowing McDermott I believe he will gameplan to take away Henry & live with the consequences of Lamar making plays. Benford/Douglas are good enough to man up on Balty wrs- I think we may see more man coverage or at least I think they should. Bills will be aggressive and try to stop Henry before he gets going. They know if the Ravens control LOS it's over. I said it before the Broncos game the Bills D is flawed but still better than most think.


So will the Ravens control the line of scrimmage? Question of the season for me. Then there's the other side of the ball.

The Bills offensive line is GREAT. I was terrified when it looked like Dawkins hurt his shoulder because he's been unreal. Came back like 2 plays later. There's a reason why Cook put up the numbers he has all season long. Everyone is asking how the Bills stop the Ravens run game but everyone just thinks the Ravens will stop Buffalo's run game? How do they get to Allen before he escapes and exploits the secondary?

One thing Buffalo has going for it- outside of the QBs IF they take away henry (big if) the likelihood of a win is high. If the Ravens take away one offensive weapon Allen will find another matchup to win. Curtis Samuel was an absolute non- factor all season. His sole regular season TD helped beat KC & all of a sudden he's in the mix post season. Ty johnson has been a weapon all season long but that TD catch vs Denver was unreal. On an extended play Allen can look to anyone in addition to taking off.

I think having the #2 seed here is a big advantage and Lamar can keep his MVP trophy because Allen will not be denied at home this time.
Click to expand...
Great info
 
KJ said:
Well the lines in the back would certainly contribute to your functional problem. If you're were really there to get laid you should have just stuck with the bong rips lola
Click to expand...


Looking back I seriously learned some valuable life lessons on those BILLS trips ...Stayed away from the White horse after a couple bad experiences, not being able to get up was a real shocker at 18 ...lol
 
Lexington 125 said:
Starting to feel like the only way the Bills/Ravens game goes under is if a qb gets knocked out of the game or the Bills just dominate from the start. Both teams will score 24+ could be 17-10 going into the 4th & go over. I can see a 21+ pt quarter easily.

If we were to go down the roster are the Ravens the team with more talent overall across the board? Yes.

I just don't think the numbers tell the whole story here.

Defensively the Bills are fully healthy right now. That hasn't been the case all season. Milano not only back but looking in very good form, Bernard playing at a very high level & lead the team in tackles last week. Rousseau had 2 tfl & a sack last week. Him and Oliver will have to play great to disrupt the Ravens O. It's going to come down to stopping Henry for sure, and Oliver got OWNED last time. I don't think solid players forget that kind of thing- has to be horrible watching film on that Henry run all week long. Balty just him them with the wham inside & the holes were massive. Now I do expect the Bills D line to perform way better but of course Ravens Oline will win some battles. There will be holes but this time around Taron J is on the field. He's no secret anymore but one of the best nickle corners vs the run. Rapp is a thumper but missed assignments in the passing game worry me with him.

Knowing McDermott I believe he will gameplan to take away Henry & live with the consequences of Lamar making plays. Benford/Douglas are good enough to man up on Balty wrs- I think we may see more man coverage or at least I think they should. Bills will be aggressive and try to stop Henry before he gets going. They know if the Ravens control LOS it's over. I said it before the Broncos game the Bills D is flawed but still better than most think.


So will the Ravens control the line of scrimmage? Question of the season for me. Then there's the other side of the ball.

The Bills offensive line is GREAT. I was terrified when it looked like Dawkins hurt his shoulder because he's been unreal. Came back like 2 plays later. There's a reason why Cook put up the numbers he has all season long. Everyone is asking how the Bills stop the Ravens run game but everyone just thinks the Ravens will stop Buffalo's run game? How do they get to Allen before he escapes and exploits the secondary?

One thing Buffalo has going for it- outside of the QBs IF they take away henry (big if) the likelihood of a win is high. If the Ravens take away one offensive weapon Allen will find another matchup to win. Curtis Samuel was an absolute non- factor all season. His sole regular season TD helped beat KC & all of a sudden he's in the mix post season. Ty johnson has been a weapon all season long but that TD catch vs Denver was unreal. On an extended play Allen can look to anyone in addition to taking off.

I think having the #2 seed here is a big advantage and Lamar can keep his MVP trophy because Allen will not be denied at home this time.
Click to expand...

Love your writeup here ..

I don't think many people understand how different the current bills team is to the one that played in Baltimore ..
Milano as you mention looks back to himself for the first time since the injury in London.loved seeing him run down Nix by the sidelines and force him out.
Bernard really benefits from Milano being out there ( not that he doesn't make plays without him thou .)

Taron Johnson is key to stopping Lamar and the running game imo , his crazy pick 6 in playoffs vs Lamar was the product of him playing all over the field that day. Sometimes he was nickel corner , other times he spied on Lamar , run blitzed , and dropped back as an extra safety a few times ...
Von Miller also looked like he drank from the fountain of youth last week , must have been saving the juice for the post season , he showed signs here and there this season. But those 6 pressures looked fantastic last week..
Hard hitting RAPP got injured after 16 snaps vs the Ravens , clearly a key vs the run , ( hard hitter )

Oliver should be full of piss and vinegar watching the tape from the earlier meeting ...


The 12 personal package with angry extra lineman Alec Anderson is a game changer. Hes always hitting someone out there . The BILLS haven't had a player like Anderson since the early 80's !!! How often do you see the extra lineman in motion or pulling these days ?
With Knox, Kincaid and HOLLINS on the field in this package the run blocking has to be up in the top 5 in the league ??
...Fantastic that the BILLS can flip the offense to drastically different styles . So many options for Josh , almost unpredictable where the ball is going on any play with DIGGS gone .

Love that LAMAR is likely the MVP , Thinking it's extra gas in the fire for BILLS win here .
 
Last edited:
skanless13 said:
That indoor soccer shit gets intense. Have 2 that play and played myself. No joke 😂
Click to expand...

You already know lol . They've sent out mass emails and texts that the BILLS playoff games will have ZERO impact on game postponement or cancelation ...
16 of the 18 parents on our team have already peppered the soccer center with passive aggressive emails with ultimatums included ...

Weird feeling they cave 🤣🤣🤣🤣
 
DOUBLEUP4LIFE said:
Love your writeup here ..

I don't think many people understand how different the current bills team is to the one that played in Baltimore ..
Milano as you mention looks back to himself for the first time since the injury in London.loved seeing him run down Nix by the sidelines and force him out.
Bernard really benefits from Milano being out there ( not that he doesn't make plays without him thou .)

Taron Johnson is key to stopping Lamar and the running game imo , his crazy pick 6 in playoffs vs Lamar was the product of him playing all over the field that day. Sometimes he was nickel corner , other times he spied on Lamar , run blitzed , and dropped back as an extra safety a few times ...
Von Miller also looked like he drank from the fountain of youth last week , must have been saving the juice for the post season , he showed signs here and there this season. But those 6 pressures looked fantastic last week..
Oliver should be full of piss and vinegar watching the tape from the earlier meeting ...


The 12 personal package with angry extra lineman Alec Anderson is a game changer. Hes always hitting someone out there ....Fantastic that the BILLS can flip the offense to drastically different styles . So many options for Josh , almost unpredictable where the ball is going on any play with DIGGS gone .

Love that LAMAR is likely the MVP , Thinking it's extra gas in the fire for BILLS win here .
Click to expand...
Good points. I was going to post about Alec as well. I think we see an angry o line with something to prove.

Lamar mvp
Henry unstoppable
Zero all pros on the bills team
Home crowd
Dogged at home

Not that either team will need extra motivation but I think the bills have more to prove.
 
Lexington 125 said:
Starting to feel like the only way the Bills/Ravens game goes under is if a qb gets knocked out of the game or the Bills just dominate from the start. Both teams will score 24+ could be 17-10 going into the 4th & go over. I can see a 21+ pt quarter easily.

If we were to go down the roster are the Ravens the team with more talent overall across the board? Yes.

I just don't think the numbers tell the whole story here.

Defensively the Bills are fully healthy right now. That hasn't been the case all season. Milano not only back but looking in very good form, Bernard playing at a very high level & lead the team in tackles last week. Rousseau had 2 tfl & a sack last week. Him and Oliver will have to play great to disrupt the Ravens O. It's going to come down to stopping Henry for sure, and Oliver got OWNED last time. I don't think solid players forget that kind of thing- has to be horrible watching film on that Henry run all week long. Balty just him them with the wham inside & the holes were massive. Now I do expect the Bills D line to perform way better but of course Ravens Oline will win some battles. There will be holes but this time around Taron J is on the field. He's no secret anymore but one of the best nickle corners vs the run. Rapp is a thumper but missed assignments in the passing game worry me with him.

Knowing McDermott I believe he will gameplan to take away Henry & live with the consequences of Lamar making plays. Benford/Douglas are good enough to man up on Balty wrs- I think we may see more man coverage or at least I think they should. Bills will be aggressive and try to stop Henry before he gets going. They know if the Ravens control LOS it's over. I said it before the Broncos game the Bills D is flawed but still better than most think.


So will the Ravens control the line of scrimmage? Question of the season for me. Then there's the other side of the ball.

The Bills offensive line is GREAT. I was terrified when it looked like Dawkins hurt his shoulder because he's been unreal. Came back like 2 plays later. There's a reason why Cook put up the numbers he has all season long. Everyone is asking how the Bills stop the Ravens run game but everyone just thinks the Ravens will stop Buffalo's run game? How do they get to Allen before he escapes and exploits the secondary?

One thing Buffalo has going for it- outside of the QBs IF they take away henry (big if) the likelihood of a win is high. If the Ravens take away one offensive weapon Allen will find another matchup to win. Curtis Samuel was an absolute non- factor all season. His sole regular season TD helped beat KC & all of a sudden he's in the mix post season. Ty johnson has been a weapon all season long but that TD catch vs Denver was unreal. On an extended play Allen can look to anyone in addition to taking off.

I think having the #2 seed here is a big advantage and Lamar can keep his MVP trophy because Allen will not be denied at home this time.
Click to expand...
Sounds like a case for the under as well.
 
Loves2kickass said:
Sounds like a case for the under as well.
Click to expand...
No. I do not like or endorse the under.


I think there will be a flurry of points at some time and both teams get over 24. When I speak of defense I don’t think Buffalo holds them u23. I consider holding the ravens to 24 to be a great defensive game. In my mind if the ravens score 24 bills likely win.

I’m on

Bills tt o25.5

Bills 2ndh tt o13.5+105

Bills tt o23.5-165

I won’t be playing the spread.
 
Lexington 125 said:
No. I do not like or endorse the under.

I’m on

Bills tt o25.5

Bills 2ndh tt o13.5+105

Bills tt o23.5-165

I won’t be playing the spread.
Click to expand...
I would love that Bills 2/H bet if say, Baltimore is up something like 13-10 at the half. I agree with Buffalo as per being healthy, Allen as a playoff home dog (1st time since 1967) etc, etc. Should be a great game.
 
Lexington 125 said:
No. I do not like or endorse the under.


I think there will be a flurry of points at some time and both teams get over 24. When I speak of defense I don’t think Buffalo holds them u23. I consider holding the ravens to 24 to be a great defensive game. In my mind if the ravens score 24 bills likely win.

I’m on

Bills tt o25.5

Bills 2ndh tt o13.5+105

Bills tt o23.5-165

I won’t be playing the spread.
Click to expand...
I find it interesting that my Local has Ravens -1 (I took them ay +1) but the TTs are

Ravens O 24.5 -130 U +100

Bills O 27.5 +125 U -167
 
Hovland said:
It’s going to be pretty cold, Lamar doesn’t like the cold!!
Click to expand...

BILLS MAFIA wants single digits , unfortunately right now the forecast is calling for a heat wave of 17 Sunday night in Orchard Park...( Weather/ forecasts can change like a stop light


Would LOVE nothing more than SLOW moving LAKE EFFECT "YOU ALREADY SSSSSHHHNNNNOOOOOWWWWW" to Shuffle off slightly South of BUFFALO ( Orchard Park ) .
 
Last edited:
Player props for now

SAMUEL OVER 11.5 REC YARDS -112
2.5 Units ($560 to Win $500)
Brady briefly mentioned for weeks how they were not trying to put things on film over the last 4 games that they might have ready for the playoffs ...Samuel never ran some of the routes he ran last game all season. Maybe they saved his speed crossers , outs, safety valve for the playoffs ?? . Likely don't use him as much as last game vs Denver , but I'd be shocked if he didn't see at least 3+ targets, jet sweep ? Trick play ?

SAMUEL LONGEST RECEPTION OVER 9.5 YARDS -114
1.5 u
$342/300

HOLLINS OVER 16.5 -114
1.5 Units $342/300
Please watch any game on all 22 while focusing on Mack HOLLINS on every play ...How can you not love his relentless high IQ passionate play ; fantastic teammate, the blocking at the line of scrimmage and down field is top 4 by a wr in the game right now imo. Was getting held with no call on at least 3+ of Allen's first half drop backs va Broncos .
Lucky cash on over yards last week when he hauled his only catch in the game for 20 late ..








Edit

Price dropped on Samuel when I got here at Seneca Niagara..Sometimes you don't mind stopping at the sports book but should have just bet online lol

$550/500 on Samuel over 12.5

-114. $342/$300 on the other two
 

Attachments

  • Screenshot_20250115-201950.png
    Screenshot_20250115-201950.png
    152.9 KB · Views: 12
Last edited:
Baltimore opened up as a 1.5-pt underdog against the Bills. When Lamar Jackson opens as an underdog, he is 17-3 ATS in his career, including 19-1 in a 6-pt teaser.

Only six times in Lamar’s career has he opened as an underdog and ended up closing as the favorite, he is 6-0 SU and ATS in those games, covering the spread by 9.1 PPG
 
Loves2kickass said:
Baltimore opened up as a 1.5-pt underdog against the Bills. When Lamar Jackson opens as an underdog, he is 17-3 ATS in his career, including 19-1 in a 6-pt teaser.

Only six times in Lamar’s career has he opened as an underdog and ended up closing as the favorite, he is 6-0 SU and ATS in those games, covering the spread by 9.1 PPG
Click to expand...
Very interesting.
 
Just heard a stat on Bear’s podcast. Underdogs that won outright in Wild Card round are 2-15 SU last 10 years in Divisional Round ( Rams & Texans)

Also Josh Allen 12-2 as home dog in his career FWIW
 
Loves2kickass said:
I wonder how much Buffalo money the books need for the line to move down. Balty now -2.
Click to expand...

Pleasantly surprised the BILLS are not laying a field goal or more. Not sure if I'll end up taking the BILLS ML or not , as of right now I like their team total over better ....
 
Really like Hou 1H o7.5 at + money. I think if KC covers they pull away late. Can easily see 14-10 or 10-10 at HT.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Coverdatspred
CDS's Week 1 NFL
Replies
15
Views
476
B.A.R.
B.A.R.
VirginiaCavs
Texans vs. Chiefs Preview Article
Replies
20
Views
337
TahoeLegend
T
G
NFL Playoff Div Round
Replies
7
Views
328
*Ginger*
G
Frank Costanza
Bills Vs. Chiefs Discussion Thread
2 3
Replies
115
Views
2K
2daBank
2daBank
G-Man
*****G-Man's Divisional Playoffs*****
Replies
7
Views
446
G-Man
G-Man
Back
Top