***AFC Divisional Playoff Discussion***

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B.A.R.

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[TD="colspan: 8"]<small>Houston Texans at New England Patriots - AFC Divisional Playoffs</small>[/TD]
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[TD]Sat 1/14[/TD]
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[TD]303 Houston Texans[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S1_26" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); text-size-adjust: none;"> <select id="altS1_26" name="altS1_26" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); text-size-adjust: none;"><option value="0" selected="">+17 -130</option><option value="1">+16 -110</option></select>[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M1_26" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); text-size-adjust: none;"> +850 [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L1_26" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); text-size-adjust: none;"> o45 -110 [/TD]
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[TD]8:30PM[/TD]
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[TD]304 New England Patriots[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S2_26" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); text-size-adjust: none;"> <select id="altS2_26" name="altS2_26" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); text-size-adjust: none;"><option value="0" selected="">-17 +110</option><option value="1">-16 -110</option></select> [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M2_26" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); text-size-adjust: none;"> -1300 [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L2_26" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); text-size-adjust: none;"> u45 -110 [/TD]
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[TD="colspan: 8"]<small>Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs - AFC Divisional Playoffs</small>[/TD]
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[TD]Sun 1/15[/TD]
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[TD]305 Pittsburgh Steelers[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S1_28" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); text-size-adjust: none;"> <select id="altS1_28" name="altS1_28" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); text-size-adjust: none;"><option value="0" selected="">pk -120</option><option value="1">-1 -110</option></select>[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L1_28" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); text-size-adjust: none;"> o46½ -110 [/TD]
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[TD] [/TD]
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[TD]1:05PM[/TD]
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[TD]306 Kansas City Chiefs[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S2_28" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); text-size-adjust: none;"> <select id="altS2_28" name="altS2_28" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); text-size-adjust: none;"><option value="0" selected="">pk +100</option><option value="1">+1 -110</option></select> [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L2_28" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); text-size-adjust: none;"> u46½ -110 [/TD]
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Has there ever been a 17 -16 point dog in the 2nd round of NFL playoffs???

Against the No 1 defense...

Was thinking 9.5-10.5 at worst
 
Already locked in
NE -16
KC pk

KC was -3 vs Pitt before today's game at 5D. Idk how today's performance shifted it 3 points (or 4 where Pitt opened -1). Miami couldn't tackle, run, throw, catch. They made the Raiders look outstanding.

I loathe New England. I feel like they could name their score here. Only a Cyrus Jones-sequel turnover turn of events could keep this game close.
 
Not sure why but I think Houston could keep it within 14 or so. Their D is solid enough right now I think to keep it
close for a bit. I was hoping to play ML parlay ATL/NE but Falcons line has moved.
 
wizardofodd said:
Has there ever been a 17 -16 point dog in the 2nd round of NFL playoffs???

Against the No 1 defense...

Was thinking 9.5-10.5 at worst
Click to expand...

Definitely a huge line for the divisional round. The #1 defense is always kinda subjective though, because people like to use different stats to call someone the #1 defense. For instance, the Pats have the #1 scoring defense in the league. The Texans have the best defense in the league as far as yards allowed. Which one is a better indicator of the "best" defense...yards allowed or points allowed? I'm not even saying there's a right answer, just pointing out that it's subjective.

NE is 8th in total yards, and HOU is 11th in total points allowed...for comparison's sake.
 
Lareux said:
Definitely a huge line for the divisional round. The #1 defense is always kinda subjective though, because people like to use different stats to call someone the #1 defense. For instance, the Pats have the #1 scoring defense in the league. The Texans have the best defense in the league as far as yards allowed. Which one is a better indicator of the "best" defense...yards allowed or points allowed? I'm not even saying there's a right answer, just pointing out that it's subjective.

NE is 8th in total yards, and HOU is 11th in total points allowed...for comparison's sake.
Click to expand...

My fave defensive stat is yards per play allowed.
 
Largest postseason spreads ever:

Super Bowl XXIX, 1994 season, 49ers -19 vs. Chargers (49ers won 49-26)
Super Bowl III, 1968 season, Colts -18 vs. Jets (Jets won 16-7)
1998 Divisional, Vikings -16.5/-16 vs. Cardinals (Vikings won 41-21)
1994 Divisional, 49ers -15.5 vs. Bears (49ers won 44-15)
1978 Divisional, Cowboys -15 vs. Falcons (Cowboys won 27-20)



https://blog.masslive.com/patriots/2017/01/new_england_patriots_vs_housto_3.html
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emkee said:
No. Biggest fave ever in this round was -13.5
Click to expand...

So...this isn't true right?

Pyppurs said:
Largest postseason spreads ever:

Super Bowl XXIX, 1994 season, 49ers -19 vs. Chargers (49ers won 49-26)
Super Bowl III, 1968 season, Colts -18 vs. Jets (Jets won 16-7)
1998 Divisional, Vikings -16.5/-16 vs. Cardinals (Vikings won 41-21)
1994 Divisional, 49ers -15.5 vs. Bears (49ers won 44-15)
1978 Divisional, Cowboys -15 vs. Falcons (Cowboys won 27-20)



https://blog.masslive.com/patriots/2017/01/new_england_patriots_vs_housto_3.html
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Click to expand...
 
emkee said:
My fave defensive stat is yards per play allowed.
Click to expand...

If we're using yards per play allowed, then we pretty much have a wash in the NE/HOU game.

HOU is at 5.1 YPP and NE is at 5.2 YPP.
 
Lareux said:
If we're using yards per play allowed, then we pretty much have a wash in the NE/HOU game.

HOU is at 5.1 YPP and NE is at 5.2 YPP.
Click to expand...

This game is about the offense anyway. That stat being a wash would indicate NE given the Texans road offense is pathetic.
 
emkee said:
Didn't post the since 2000 at the end for some reason, y'all know I always finish my sentences with full stops.

And it's only for the Divisional Round.
Click to expand...

Right, but in Pyppurs' post there are 3 Divisional round games with spreads higher than 13.5. Obviously "since 2000" would change everything, but I'm quite aware we're talking about the Divisional round.
 
emkee said:
This game is about the offense anyway. That stat being a wash would indicate NE given the Texans road offense is pathetic.
Click to expand...

And the fact NE beat HOU 27-0 already this season, in a game that Brady didn't even play.
 
Got NE -13.5 and am not the biggest fan, but it is Houston...in general I do not like teams that have the bye in round one because we know they're going to be favored, and without a quick start (especially as DD faves) everything becomes way more difficult. But this is obviously a mismatch. Would I love to see Houston win? Actually no...they have no business in the AFC ship game. I'm probably as bored as anyone with NE but will be pulling for them early and often, AFC 'ship game should be great regardless of who wins the other one.

Under 46.5 for me in KC, honestly kinda pulling for both teams, and under in a PITT game is a scary notion, but KC defense is scary too. Think both teams try to shorten the game with runs and short passes, and will not be surprised to see either win. Of course the line reflects that. I certainly don't expect either offense to lose the game, could be a defensive or special teams play that wins this. I will say that KC defense is almost as enjoyable to watch as the Ravens defense back in 2001 or whatever it was...playmakers all over. And against possibly the best offense in the NFL, this is a tremendous game as a fan.
 
There is no NFC thread but I won't have my favorite play until gameday, it will be Seattle team total over. They may lose by double digits but everything about it adds up...they don't score on the road, no running game, OLine sucks...well...imo what helps is 1) ATL defense, 2) ATL defense, 3) dome, 4) turf, 5) way better defense (Even without Earl who is key, but this is an up/down game), 6) ATL defense

Yeah, you get where I'm coming from, and I still wouldn't be shocked to see the Falcons win by double digits. Just think Seahawks score when they want to.
 
Also I'm already on over 49.5 there and I know it's risen, but don't discount the FGs in the dome that will likely be made (by two very good kickers). I'm wrong frequently so take it for what it's worth, just my two cents.
 
Points allowed and yards per play are both good indicators obviously but both are dependent on the opponent's ability to move the ball. DVOA is a more in depth look at the defense of a team because it takes every play and compares it against league average and then adjusts for game situation and quality of opponent. In this case NE was 16th in the league. They had the easiest schedule in the NFL this year when it came to quality of the offense in their opponents. So in my opinion (which shouldn't count for much) 17 points is too much. The 27-0 game doesn't mean much because it was game 3 (a long time ago) and Garrapollo was playing every bit as well as Brady does up until he got hurt. I'm a NE fan and for whatever it's worth when ever I think the line is too high and take the points the Pats seem to cover. I'll still take the points in some fashion here. Probably in a tease. Another thought here is the books looking for Hou money but that might very well be wishful thinking on my part. Good luck to all
 
Just curious as we are debating at work.
What do you think the line would be if it was Titans (everyone healthy) @ NE
I putting it -10
 
Lareux said:
Fair enough...the point that it's all subjective still remains.
Click to expand...

Big time. Houston although least yards allowed still netted -49 points throughout the season. Kinda makes those yards not make two shits if they can't go score for score.

Pats roll here but I predicted -14/45.
 
BJPLAYER said:
Points allowed and yards per play are both good indicators obviously but both are dependent on the opponent's ability to move the ball. DVOA is a more in depth look at the defense of a team because it takes every play and compares it against league average and then adjusts for game situation and quality of opponent. In this case NE was 16th in the league. They had the easiest schedule in the NFL this year when it came to quality of the offense in their opponents. So in my opinion (which shouldn't count for much) 17 points is too much. The 27-0 game doesn't mean much because it was game 3 (a long time ago) and Garrapollo was playing every bit as well as Brady does up until he got hurt. I'm a NE fan and for whatever it's worth when ever I think the line is too high and take the points the Pats seem to cover. I'll still take the points in some fashion here. Probably in a tease. Another thought here is the books looking for Hou money but that might very well be wishful thinking on my part. Good luck to all
Click to expand...

Piggybacking off of this, DVOA is definitely one of the most accurate depictions of what a team really is. With that said, Houston's total team DVOA puts them at the 29th best team in the league (just behind those pesky 49ers) and the 3rd worst team to ever make the playoffs in the 25 year DVOA era.

I hate the Patriots. I would love for them to lose. They will send a message Saturday


All favorites covered this week btw for those who think that matters.

Justin Houston back this week. Hope Ben can run without that boot.
 
Seattle OL melts in the road. Falcons my favorite side of the weekend. Taking Falcons ML with Clemson +10 and +13
 
Feels like the under in Foxboro worth a look. Worst qb in the league on the road / type of game where Pats may be happy sitting on a lead and let the Oline feel good about themselves in the running game.
 
Capaholic said:
Joey Porter got arrested apparently....

http://www.behindthesteelcurtain.co...-altercation-with-police-officer-afc-playoffs
Click to expand...

<blockquote class="imgur-embed-pub" lang="en" data-id="nhILFCZ"><a href="//imgur.com/nhILFCZ">Joey Porter's police report</a></blockquote><script async src="//s.imgur.com/min/embed.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


2 things interesting from the report.
1) Bounce is 195lbs???
2) why does the officer need to identify Porter and his friends being black, but he doesn't identify his race nor the bouncers.
 
Steelers had a ton of bounce and swagger yesterday, different mountain to climb at Arrowhead but i think they're coming into KC extremely confident.
 
Agreed raems. They are getting 2 on Bovada, good teaser opportunity there, played them with Pats down to -10.
 
I did a plus money 4 team tease at +110- I've found its best for me to handicap NFL through the lens of a child:

Falcons/Hawks over 39.5
Texans/Pats Under 56.5
Chiefs +11.5
Pats/Boys over 40

Just picked em cause they seem obvious to a casual observer.
 
raems said:
Steelers had a ton of bounce and swagger yesterday, different mountain to climb at Arrowhead but i think they're coming into KC extremely confident.
Click to expand...

They should be confident but more so because they have won 8 in a row. Yesterday's game did not do it for me like it did for America apparently. Miami squandered every chance they had. The first half was abysmal and they still had less than 20 yards to go to make it a one score game with the ball coming out of halftime. Were the first half touchdowns that impressive? Or was it abysmal tackling. Did Big Ben throw 2 Ints? Did the Steelers only have 72 yards in the 2nd half? Did they win the 2nd half 10-6 (with the starters in) when the Miami 2nd half drives looked like this: Fumble, Int, Downs, Punt, TD, Downs?

It was an impressive 1st half against a team that gave up 985 yards and 66 points the previous two weeks to Buffalo and NE.

Very good team. Played 1 team that finished above .500 in the 7 game streak leading up to Miami. They might run roughshod over KC, but they are getting way too much hype and the line movement (up to 3 from pk in some places and it's not the public driving it) is indicative of it. Perhaps the rant of a homer. I don't think it is. Sorry it had to be at your comment. :shake:
 
Pyppurs said:
<iframe allowfullscreen="true" mozallowfullscreen="true" webkitallowfullscreen="true" class="imgur-embed-iframe-pub imgur-embed-iframe-pub-nhILFCZ-true-540" scrolling="no" src="http://imgur.com/nhILFCZ/embed?ref=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cappingthegame.com%2Fforum%2Fshowthread.php%3F127785-***AFC-Divisional-Playoff-Discussion***&w=540" id="imgur-embed-iframe-pub-nhILFCZ" style="height: 500px; width: 540px; margin: 10px 0px; padding: 0px;"></iframe><script async="" src="//s.imgur.com/min/embed.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


2 things interesting from the report.
1) Bounce is 195lbs???
2) why does the officer need to identify Porter and his friends being black, but he doesn't identify his race nor the bouncers.
Click to expand...

They employ short-ass cops, damn. Was it a female or Tyrion Lannister ?

No-one gonna take an oomp-loompa sized male cop seriously for starters.
 
raems said:
Steelers had a ton of bounce and swagger yesterday, different mountain to climb at Arrowhead but i think they're coming into KC extremely confident.
Click to expand...

Gonna come down to coaching and who makes the dumb play first. Ben's INT's yesterday were weak but he shouldn't have even been throwing.
 
Pats had a head start in preparing for Houston according to coach

Bill Belichick said #Patriots started planning for Houston on Sat night because Pittsburgh vs. Miami ..."you know.."
 
Road dogs of 7 or more that won their WC game by double-digits are 10-1 ATS last 11 occasions.

Houston in this spot.
 
Please no Steeler fans take offense to this, but one small thing to remember in the Pitt/KC game is the NFL lovvvvves the Steelers...calls go their way more often than not.
 
NFL does love them some Steelers. KC not as big of a draw and I am sure they would much prefer a rematch that Big Ben actually plays in.

I will likely be betting Steelers as kind of a reverse jinx sort of thing.
 
Capaholic said:
They should be confident but more so because they have won 8 in a row. Yesterday's game did not do it for me like it did for America apparently. Miami squandered every chance they had. The first half was abysmal and they still had less than 20 yards to go to make it a one score game with the ball coming out of halftime. Were the first half touchdowns that impressive? Or was it abysmal tackling. Did Big Ben throw 2 Ints? Did the Steelers only have 72 yards in the 2nd half? Did they win the 2nd half 10-6 (with the starters in) when the Miami 2nd half drives looked like this: Fumble, Int, Downs, Punt, TD, Downs?

It was an impressive 1st half against a team that gave up 985 yards and 66 points the previous two weeks to Buffalo and NE.

Very good team. Played 1 team that finished above .500 in the 7 game streak leading up to Miami. They might run roughshod over KC, but they are getting way too much hype and the line movement (up to 3 from pk in some places and it's not the public driving it) is indicative of it. Perhaps the rant of a homer. I don't think it is. Sorry it had to be at your comment. :shake:
Click to expand...

Tend to agree about that game. Miami D came out really dull, that quick screen to AB is a 5 yard play at most, but for some reason the CB on AB kept his 8 yard cushion and waited for the blocking to engulf him.

The Steelers had 5 sacks but two were scheme where the backside LB went unblocked, and two were Timmons running over the blocking back. Only 1 sack came from beating a lineman 1 on 1. Steelers have been running a lot of LeBeau's old overload and delay blitzes. A better coaching staff will have their line ready to protect better.

The return of Moore to the game was also a disgrace. No surprise that all three turnovers came after the Dupree illegal hit, two with Moore handling the ball lazily on sacks.

Just seemed like a lot of their success would be easily countered by a better team playing at home. Maybe it's KC, maybe it has to wait until Brady, I dunno.
 
Jayhawk Nation said:
NFL does love them some Steelers. KC not as big of a draw and I am sure they would much prefer a rematch that Big Ben actually plays in.

I will likely be betting Steelers as kind of a reverse jinx sort of thing.
Click to expand...

Thought I was the only one who did misery bets.
 
Tito said:
Please no Steeler fans take offense to this, but one small thing to remember in the Pitt/KC game is the NFL lovvvvves the Steelers...calls go their way more often than not.
Click to expand...

5139775183_6a4e510f3a_b.jpg
 
for the game in KC....




[FONT=&quot]Kickoff
snow.png

Snow
Temperature: 31f.
Feels Like: 25f.
Wind: 6mi East - NorthEast
Humidity: 96%
Visibility: 7mi
Barometer: 1029"
Dew Point: 30f.
Cloud Cover: 100%
Precipitacion Prob: 59%
[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Q2
snow.png

Light Snow
Temperature: 32f.
Feels Like: 26f.
Wind: 6mi East - NorthEast
Humidity: 96%
Visibility: 9mi
Barometer: 1028"
Dew Point: 31f.
Cloud Cover: 100%
Precipitacion Prob: 56%
[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Q3
rain.png

Light Rain
Temperature: 32f.
Feels Like: 27f.
Wind: 6mi East - NorthEast
Humidity: 96%
Visibility: 10mi
Barometer: 1027"
Dew Point: 31f.
Cloud Cover: 100%
Precipitacion Prob: 56%
[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Q4
rain.png

Light Rain
Temperature: 33f.
Feels Like: 27f.
Wind: 6mi East - NorthEast
Humidity: 96%
Visibility: 10mi
Barometer: 1027"
Dew Point: 32f.
Cloud Cover: 100%
Precipitacion Prob: 55%
[/FONT]​
 
Tito said:
And Ben is a very good bad weather Qb
Click to expand...

Stack the box. Make Ben throw against a Pro Bowl Secondary. I don't think the weather benefits either team. KC runs and relies on short passing as well with a better secondary.

I took KC. I only bet them 6 times this year and went 5-1 (Tennessee should have kept it perfect). It's their time. This is their moment to take the next step under Reid. I begrudge nobody who rolls with Pitt though.
 
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