ACC Conference Discussion

[B.A.R.]

Alright ETG..lets go. Been looking at this conference heavily the last few nights..about halfway done with my intial preperations.

Let me granb my notes..

Intially..the supposed superconference hasn't lived up to it name yet. That being said I expect this too be a very improved conference this year.

 

[E.T.G.]

haha, your notes... getting a head start on me huh...let me go grab mine..which side do you want to start with

 

[B.A.R.]

Lets go with the Atlantic.

 

[B.A.R.]

Clemson is a team that I think will struggle out of the gate. Any team breaking in a new starting QB with an iffy offensive line is something I look for immediately.

They start with FSU on labor day and thats not the right team to play with the inexperience up ront and at the helm. Florida St's defense will control that game and frankly put a damper on any confidence the QB may gain in camp. I expect that game to be ugly and its the first play I have targeted for week one. Absolutely love it.

Weeks2-3 will help them work on some issues before they face conference opponents again. With such a strong defensive conference this season I think it will be an uphill battle at times for them. They will be a better bet as the season progresses.

 

[E.T.G.]

Ok Atlantic it is..


Me and Mr. Steele agree on 1 thing.. FSU wins this side.. Other than that I don't agree with him.. I was reading up on FSU on rivals and seems their summer is going good. My favorite team Clemsux is going to take a step back this yr. We are looking at Willy Korn possibly starting the yr as a true frosh with 4 new OL in front of him. Yes they got 2 great rb's but what good are they if they have no holes and 8 guys in the box.

Thats where I will start.. Any particular teams?

 

[B.A.R.]

Well, it looks like we are spot-on with the Clemosn analysis. I started with them because I figured as a gamecock you would have a few thoughts

 

[B.A.R.]

Davis and Spiller are great but the bottom line is teams will have 8 in the box all day long and with an unproven threat at QB they will have a rough go of things.

 

[E.T.G.]

There is going to be some very mad people in the upstate after this yr but I just can't see them doing better than last yr and it is going to be a monumental task for that offense to beat FSU despite being home

 

[B.A.R.]

Revenge games this year for Clemson are home vs VT, @ SC and home vs BC

 

[B.A.R.]

There is going to be some very mad people in the upstate after this yr but I just can't see them doing better than last yr and it is going to be a monumental task for that offense to beat FSU despite being home

I have that game projected about 24-10 final in favor of the Noles. I will be suprised if Clemosn gets anymore than 10 points. FSU will create turnovers and be playing with shorter fields a lot. Once FSU gets up the effectiveness of the Tigers runnin game will be much less and that should wrap up a win and a cover for the Seminoles.

 

[E.T.G.]

They are 37-14 at home under Bowden and 19-20 on the road. They travel to NC State, GT, Maryland, and SC.. Not the easiest slate of games.

 

[E.T.G.]

They are not beating US. Bowden ran his mouth in the off season, Spurrier goes to sleep thinking about the beating we are going to give them. We won 31-28 last yr but had a 28-15 advantage in first downs. We returned an INT and our fat DL fumbles it away for a touchback cause he celebrates early meanwhile their DL returns our ball 95yds for TD. That game should of been about a 10-13point gamecock win.

 

[E.T.G.]

Did you see that Brian Toal could be forced to redshirt this yr for BC? Big loss for them but no way do they finish last in this division

 

[B.A.R.]

Last points on clemson then we can move onto BC....

Projected lines of some cappers here

Lindetrain FSU -2.5
STACKS FSU -4
VegasKyle FSU -9(says he thinks is wrong...just his numbers)
pstone FSU PK

Steele power rankings call or PK.

I personally think we see aound a FSU -3...

 

[E.T.G.]

BAR, about the FSU-Clemsux game, have to like the fact FSU lost the last 2 yrs to them as well. Time for them to jump on em'

 

[TheGarfather]

FSU
BC
NCSU
MD
Clemson
Wake (not fooling anybody this year)

I probably have as much or more disagreement with Phil on this division, as I do on any other conference or division.

 

[B.A.R.]

BAR, about the FSU-Clemsux game, have to like the fact FSU lost the last 2 yrs to them as well. Time for them to jump on em'

Totally...a double revenge with the other factors written in..mmm:smiley_acbe:

 

[TheGarfather]

FSU will come the chalk, but not by more than a field goal. PK would draw too much Noles money.

 

[E.T.G.]

Phil has their HF advantage as -4.5. That is pretty big homefield advantage and they do play well there, 37-14 under Bowden as I mentioned before. I am not one to set lines, I like to react to them and I think FSU-3 to FSU -6 is reasonable but it is going to be a very popular play so I would like to jump on it early. It is also a Monday game on opening week and so everyone in the world is going to bet it. Maybe there will be a lot of "home doggie" money floating in. I will say that I do not think this game should be a PK

 

[B.A.R.]

FSU
BC
NCSU
MD
Clemson
Wake (not fooling anybody this year)

I probably have as much or more disagreement with Phil on this division, as I do on any other conference or division.

I have to agree GAR.

Clemosn will slide for the reasons I stated IMO.

Wake was good, but lucky last year as well. Back to reality.

I may flip-flop BC and NCSU. Not sure yet. Going to be a competitive division though.

 

[B.A.R.]

Phil has their HF advantage as -4.5. That is pretty big homefield advantage and they do play well there, 37-14 under Bowden as I mentioned before. I am not one to set lines, I like to react to them and I think FSU-3 to FSU -6 is reasonable but it is going to be a very popular play so I would like to jump on it early. It is also a Monday game on opening week and so everyone in the world is going to bet it. Maybe there will be a lot of "home doggie" money floating in. I will say that I do not think this game should be a PK

I agree with everything you say their. I will lay up to 6.5 because thats about where it should be IMO.

For a Monday night game it will be a public team versus the home dog mentality. Which way does the money go? I hope to play this the day the lines go up though.

 

[E.T.G.]

FSU
BC
NCSU
MD
Clemson
Wake (not fooling anybody this year)

I probably have as much or more disagreement with Phil on this division, as I do on any other conference or division.

Pretty much how I feel..Think #3-4-5 could be interchangeable here but Wake is not doing that shit again.

 

[E.T.G.]

I just can't see how Phil has a team with the best QB in the league, their two best RB's back, 3 guys back on the OL which they produce no problems, and 9 guys back on D finishing last in their division (BC).

 

[B.A.R.]

alright...lets talk BC then...help me out as I have only partially looked at them so far

 

[B.A.R.]

Obviously a new coach with a new system is the worry early. Its feast or Famine. I think Ryan will be fine as he is a heady, veteran leader and should adjust pretty quick. They jump right into league action with 2 games at home to start the season.

 

[brewer]

clemson has two great backs but no Oline. what a waste that is.

 

[E.T.G.]

BC has always been a team to me that is just there. They just win games and they don't do it often by a lot of points. They are going to be solid on defense though. They return 9 guys back on that side of the ball and last yr they gave up 15.7pts a game to go along with 108yds rushing. They held Clemson to 110yds on 37attempts so that right there says they are strong against the run. Now if Toal is out, it certainly hurts but they have depth there because 6 different players earned starts at LB and they all return. The only losses on defense came at DB but the front 7 should be able to help them out by playing solid. They return 16 of their top 17 tacklers.

 

[B.A.R.]

Last year BC...

Was +15 in turnovers
gave up under 110 ypg on the ground
only got 115 or so themselves on ground

 

[E.T.G.]

Ryan is the best QB in the ACC. Whitworth and Callender are a very solid 1-2 punch and they have 3 of their top 4 receivers back. They all pretty much throw up the same numbers. Of course with new staff coming in some things will change but for Steele to have this team last in the division is crazy. They are my #2 behind FSU, a team they beat last yr and they get them at home where they went 7-0 last yr. The OOC schedule is a joke with Army, UMass, Bowling Green, and ND

 

[B.A.R.]

As you said earlier about Toal..hadn't heard that..nice heads-up.

You have to like this team. Depth on the o-line providd they learn system quickly they should be solid. Proven QB and a heck of a defense.They gave up over 21 thre times and two of those were 2OT games. The other was the moose in Mt. Pleasant to open the season.

 

[E.T.G.]

Wake Forest either owns O'Brien or they own BC, we will find out this yr because Wake has won 3 of the last 4 vs them and BC opens up with Wake at home. Ryan was 40-57 for 402yds last yr vs. Wake but threw 2 picks in the endzone last yr

 

[B.A.R.]

Great points.

Well we agree on Clemson and BC so far.

It will be interesting to get BC updates as camp progresses to see how they are reacting to the new scheme and whatnot.

 

[E.T.G.]

Toal news:

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=2935183

 

[E.T.G.]

Next team or does anyone else have anything to add/counter?

 

[B.A.R.]

Terps?

 

[E.T.G.]

Terps it is. Here I am not too solid. Don't have a good feel for this team at all.

 

[E.T.G.]

They were weak against the run last yr (163yds/game), return 6 on defense and 4 of their front 7. Their 5 ACC wins were by a combined 13points and they were outgained in every game except 1.

 

[E.T.G.]

Strengths of the team have to be considered their running game with their top 2 rushers back, both over 750yds. They do have their top 4 WR's back but will have a soph QB throwing the ball to them.

 

[TheGarfather]

I'm not sure that there is really going to be that great of a change in the offensive philosophy? Is Jagodzinski noted for being a pass first guy?

This team has the tools to run, but I certainly think they can do some passing as well. Their OL is enourmous. Unless you are doing a complete 180 from pass to run or run to pass, a new HC shouldn't matter a whole lot. Teams that have balanced offenses usually translate to new coaches pretty easily.

 

[B.A.R.]

well, they get 2 games to prepare for WVU. Lasy year OOC hey certainly did not wow anyone against MTSU, Bill and the Bitch(ckr reference) and FIU.

 

[E.T.G.]

Gar-Pretty much agree. No reason to change much of the philosophy at BC anyway. I admit that I don't know much about Jagodzinski but they have the tools on offense and defense for sure.

 

[E.T.G.]

WV ran for 340yds on them, will see much of the same of that this yr.

 

[TheGarfather]

I like Maryland's squad but I like their offense a lot less w/o Gaither. Say what you will about his work ethic, the guy was a great college level tackle (was scheduled to switch from R to L this season.) Speaking of large OLs, here is another one. They should be able to get some movement for Ball and Lattimore. A little concerned about the passing game, at least initially.

 

[E.T.G.]

Another team that is good at home (30-8) under Friedgen and average away (16-14).

 

[RetroVK]

Terps were not that good last year.
I had this team overrated last year and did manage to make some money on them anyways. So how did they do it ?

1. They had a lot of senior leadership led by qb Hollenbach
2. Friedgen is stone cold awesome coach ( especially gameday)
3. Special teams came up huge
4. the conference as whole was down last year

lets look at each of these

1. Lose senior qb , trade him in for unproven steffy or unproven portis ( transferred in from florida or fsu cant remember which).

2. Friedgen is still a stone cold awesome coach
3. they lost pedlosh to the jacksonville jaguars and the good kicker also leaves. has to be a major setback to the special teams this year
4. this year the conference has gotten considerably stronger and the terps have not

 

[E.T.G.]

I just don't have a good feel for them as a team. 9-4 overall and outgained in everygame except the bowl game vs. Purdue and William & Mary game, big fuken shit there.

 

[CollegeKingRex]

Look forward to seeing Tim's thoughts on the Turtles... I'm sure they will be pretty comprehensive.

You guys are just too far ahead of me right now to get into rational discussions... but I will catch up in due time.

In the meantime, keep up the great work. One year and I can confidently say without question that this is the best place to find out good college football info on the internet...

 

[B.A.R.]

Odd team for sure last year avaeraging over 90 ypg less than the opposition.

I remember hitting against and winning with WVU..taking them against GT and thats he only feel I ever got for them..lol

 

[B.A.R.]

Look forward to seeing Tim's thoughts on the Turtles... I'm sure they will be pretty comprehensive.

You guys are just too far ahead of me right now to get into rational discussions... but I will catch up in due time.

In the meantime, keep up the great work. One year and I can confidently say without question that this is the best place to find out good college football info on the internet...

def look forward to our Turtle insider getting his preseason thoughts in order

 

[E.T.G.]

Don't worry CKR, I am letting you do my MLB work for me. lol.. Looking forward to when you do jump into the discussions.

I will say at this pace we will have nothing to talk about in early August.