AA playoff and D2 final, any thoughts?

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wadegarrett

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I figure there are some people out there that know something about these games since I see lines on them. Anyone have any thoughts? Might find a soft line on a game or two since books probably don't know the teams that well. Thanks guys.
 
hoopstar, i thought u capped AA games. or maybe I am thinking of someone else
 
I sure wish BM would stop holdin' their dicks and release the lines for these games....as I'm heading to Harrisonburg today for the JMU game. I see 5dimes has JMU -7 and Richmond -3.5. JMU has failed to cover in the there first two playoff games and Richmond of course pulled the upset last week and could win on the road again this week. Montana has a long flight but should be a good game. I'd love to see JMU-Richmond in the final! No real opinion on the lines
 
Only $50 limits on the games right now.

No interest in betting a case of beer, and watching the line jump 10 points from others betting it.

I will share the in fo once I can actually bet on the game.


:shake:
 
I got on the right side of the line move at JMU -7..

Sagarin's line shows it should be JMU -11.. Montana struggles protecting the QB as they allow 3.36 sacks per game, ranking them as one of the worst in the nation. JMU gets after the QB pretty well and Top 20 in defensive sacks. Montana's stretgh on defense is their DB's but that advantage diminishes as JMU is so heavy run oriented. They rush for almost 280 ypg but only throw for around 120. Montana's LB's will have some problems with the speed of JMU and the option that they run. I just don't think Montana has had enough time to prepare for this type of offense. Short week for Montana and add in the cross country travel and it shows a big edge for JMU. The last road game for Montana was actually west-bound for them at portland state on November 8th. They won that game 29-12. However when looking at portland state, they are the #1 pass offense in the FCS but they are the 118th ranked rushing offense with a pitiful 29 ypg on the ground. As a matter of a fact, Montana has played 5 road games this season. They traveled West for every game I believe and certainly have not made a road trip like this one. As I said JMU is the 4th ranked rushing offense in the nation. In Montana's road games, they faced the 3rd, 70th, 98th, 81st and 118th ranked rushing attacks. Cal Poly was the season opener and they run the football very well, and they held them to 175 yards rushing comparing to the 306 they averaged this season. Other than that game, they have not played a road game with a run game close to what JMU will give them. I rarely lay more than 3 points but I was comfortable laying the 7 in this one and prob would be all the way up to 9.5 where it's at on BM when I saw it last. GL
 
I'll try and get some thoughts up on NW Missouri State as well sometime tonight.. My dad played football there in the 70's and still keeps up with them a good bit, I'm gonna call him and get some info from him soon
 
I will look into the Missouri-Minnesota game this evening and post a few thoughts.
Montana-JMU is a tough call at 7 points.
JMU is the logical favorite, but their games against top competition have all been touchdown or less. They seem to be able to win, but covering is another matter. Not a game I would bet during the regular season, but gun to the head I would lay the points and pray.
Montana is very tough at home; they avnged their only loss this year when the beat Weber St rather comfortably last week. They areclearly better now than they were early this season.
I'm surprised to see Richmond favored as a road team, but their first year coach seems to have them peaking at the right time. Can they continue to force turnovers? 7 last week, I think 5 the week before.
There seems to be some magic going for them. NIU QB has some nagging injury problems, I think.
I'll have more onthese two games a little later . Out of time righht now.
 
Do me a favor, and tell Sagarin to stick his 7 up his ass....

I'm on Montana +12 and UNI a little bigger at +8.

A haily mary to beat Nova.... A 35 point 2h to beat App by 3..... and a Punt return for a TD to beat Richmond at the end of regulation does not strike me as a team to lay 12 points with against the #4 seed in the FCS Semifinals...

Just my opinion.


And I am looking for a slight letdown from Richmond, and the fact that those unfamiliar with the UNI dome, will not play well in the UNI dome.

Tell me how many this Richmond team has played in a stadium that looks like this....


GL Fellas.....


.
 
Also....

Please refrain from discussing the D2 game for as long as possible, if that is a reasonable request.

As I said, the limits are still only $50 on it, and I don't want to see it move like a jack rabbit.

But if not, that's fine.

Thanks guys, and good luck.
 
That picture is really telling...it has to be really weird for the kickers especially that haven't played there with essentially a wall as your background. Not much room beyond the end line of the end zone.
 
Also....

Please refrain from discussing the D2 game for as long as possible, if that is a reasonable request.

As I said, the limits are still only $50 on it, and I don't want to see it move like a jack rabbit.

But if not, that's fine.

Thanks guys, and good luck.

Sorry???
 
Well it looks like the numbers I had on these two games were all out of whack. I'm now looking at 11 1/2 and 7 1/2.
I lean with Hoops that JMU scores just enough points to win in big games. Makes double digits pretty enticing.
The only reason I can see for Richmond being favored by a TD plus on the road is that the NIU QB, Grace, is hurt and will see limited or no action ??
That's just speculation but I see no other reason for the points being anywhere near this number.
Keepers likes JMU up to 8 and Richmond up to 3.
Hoops , if you come back in this thread, I'm going to try and send youa PM.
bull
 
I didn't mean it to be a dick head comment...

Its just frustrating when the only book that is offering the game, allows a $50 limit, and will move the line 1.5 points with every bet....

It makes it very hard for anyone wanting to bet more than a steak dinner, the ability to get down at a decent #.

I mean If I bet what I want to bet, I would move the line 5+ points by myself... So why bother doing that, until the market opens up, and they won't be as apt to move the lines...
 
I didn't mean it to be a dick head comment...

Its just frustrating when the only book that is offering the game, allows a $50 limit, and will move the line 1.5 points with every bet....

It makes it very hard for anyone wanting to bet more than a steak dinner, the ability to get down at a decent #.

I mean If I bet what I want to bet, I would move the line 5+ points by myself... So why bother doing that, until the market opens up, and they won't be as apt to move the lines...


I understand, I'll stay out of the FCS and D2 threads. GL tonight
 
No... by all means... post away....

I do not like Jeff Sagarin's numbers, and how everyone lives by them. I'm ecstatic that 5dimes sets their lines from them, as it allowed me to hit 76.5% last season, and 56% overall, but 61% weighted this season. I certainly won't complain about that.

If there was no difference of opinion, then gambling wouldn't exist.

Good luck on your plays.
 
No... by all means... post away....

I do not like Jeff Sagarin's numbers, and how everyone lives by them. I'm ecstatic that 5dimes sets their lines from them, as it allowed me to hit 76.5% last season, and 56% overall, but 61% weighted this season. I certainly won't complain about that.

If there was no difference of opinion, then gambling wouldn't exist.

Good luck on your plays.


GL to you as well, I like to look at Sags numbers in some of the FCS games. I struggle to set my own line in games like this, i just use that as an additional tool when breaking down the games. My best friend played ball at Montana in 2004 but wasn't cleared due to a heart murmur so I get to hear about the Grizz(more than i would like to). I rarely bet the FCS/D2 games but will get involved on a few plays per season around this time of year. I wish you continued success and 61% is a very impressive clip.
:cheers:
 
Here is what the staff writer at the Sports Network has to say on the JMU-Montana game. These are HIS words, not mine.

The Sports Network
By John Hooper, FCS Correspondent
DATE & TIME: Friday, December 12th, 8 p.m. (et).
FACTS & STATS: Site: Bridgeforth Stadium/Zane Showker Field (15,500) -- Harrisonburg, Virginia. Surface: Field Turf. Television: ESPN 2. Announcers: Bob Wischusen, Brock Huard. Home Record: Montana 9-0; James Madison 8-0. Away Record: Montana 4-1; James Madison 4-1. Current Win Streak: Montana - 9; James Madison 12. Series Record: James Madison (9-7). Last Meeting: December 19, 2004 (James Madison, 31-21 at FCS Championship Game - Chattanooga, TN). Conference: Montana - Big Sky; James Madison - Colonial Athletic Association. Sports Network Ranking: Montana (5); James Madison (1). Nicknames: Montana Grizzlies; James Madison Dukes. Coaches: Montana - Montana - Bobby Hauck (65-15); James Madison - Mickey Matthews (76-45). Playoff Record: Montana (26-15); James Madison (8-7).
GAME NOTES: In 2004, James Madison clinched the school's first national title with a 31-21 win over Montana in the championship game. To reach the grand stage once again, the Dukes will have to go through the Grizzlies in the semifinals at home in Bridgeforth Stadium. JMU was able to complete the season sweep of Villanova, defeating the gritty No. 6-ranked Wildcats 31-27, in one of the most-thrilling quarterfinal match ups last Saturday.
Payton Award finalist quarterback Rodney Landers (1,519 passing yards, 21 TDs, four interceptions, 1,686 rushing yards, 16 TDs) was at his finest, scoring the game-clinching TD with 1:38 remaining to deliver the dramatic win. Landers helped orchestrate an 11-play, 54-yard drive, taking 5:16 off the clock in the process. In total, Landers connected on 14-of-20 passes for 157 yards, three TDs and no interceptions to solidify his nomination as a finalist for sub- classification's most-prestigious honor.
Landers completed passes to eight different receivers, including TD passes to Bosco Williams (16 receptions, 14.3 average, three TDs), tight end Mike Caussin (18 receptions, 12.8, five TDs) and Kerby Long (13 receptions, 14.2 average, two TDs). Landers' top receiver this season has been Rockeed McCarter, who leads the Dukes with 21 receptions (16.5 average, team-high six TD catches).
Landers is not alone in leading the Dukes' offense (400 yards per game). Running back Eugene Holloman (941 yards, eight TDs) has been a key component of the ground game as well and has been returning to the form he showed before injuries began to slow him down in 2007.
Holloman brings speed and a pair of good hands catching the ball out of the backfield for the Dukes, making him a threat on two fronts. With 59 yards rushing against the Grizzlies, Holloman would reach the 1,000-yard plateau, giving the Dukes their first tandem of 1,000-yard rushers in the same season.
The most versatile athlete on the offensive side of the ball is running back Griff Yancey (474 yards rushing, 19 receptions, 11.9 average, 775 total yards, 13 TDs).
With all the success that the JMU offense has garnered this season, the Dukes' defense has at times gone unnoticed. However, like the 2004 team that won it all, the defense has been a cornerstone of JMU's title hopes in the 2008 postseason.
Leading the way is one of the top defensive fronts in FCS, led by Sam Daniels (40 tackles, 12 tackles for loss, six sacks) at defensive tackle and Arthur Moats (60 tackles, 14 tackles for loss, team-leading 11 sacks) at defensive end. Moats led JMU's defensive effort in the quarterfinal win over Villanova, registering 11 tackles and three-and-a-half sacks.
Fellow end Hassan Abdul-Wahid (57 tackles, six tackles for loss, four sacks) and defensive tackle J.D. Skolnitsky (52 tackles, nine tackles for loss, four sacks) round out a talented front four.
The Dukes also have high-profile names in the secondary, led by Buck Buchanan Award candidate safety Marcus Haywood (94 tackles). Haywood, who leads the team with five interceptions, picked off one of those passes last Saturday to help clinch JMU's place in the semifinal round. He also caused and recovered a fumble to set up a touchdown.
Haywood is joined by Pat Williams (54 tackles, three tackles for loss) at strong safety, while senior cornerback Evan McCollough is the team's best cover-corner. McCollough (81 tackles, two interceptions) also gives the team solid run support, ranking second on the team's tackle ledger.
Like JMU, Montana faced a team that had given it fits in its regular-season matchup. The Grizzlies were 45-28 losers to Weber State the first time around.
In the 24-13 playoff win over Big Sky co-champion Weber State, Montana put together probably its finest defensive performance of the season, holding the high-powered Wildcats offense to 386 yards total offense and just 13 points. The Grizzly defense limited the Wildcats to 43 yards under its season average, as well as forcing three Weber State turnovers.
Montana, which has allowed just 26 points in its first two playoff outings, is led defensively by Buchanan Award candidate Colt Anderson (103 tackles, five tackles for loss, three interceptions) at strong safety. Anderson is great in run-support and is one of the more physical performers on the Montana defense. Coming into the 2008 campaign, Anderson was the lone returning starter in the secondary and one of only five returning defensive performers. He teams with Shann Schlillinger (90 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, four interceptions) at safety.
Up front, the Grizzlies are led by a solid duo of defensive ends, Mike Stadnyk (50 tackles, 10.5 tackles for loss, 7.5 sacks) and Jace Palmer (38 tackles, 12 tackles for loss, 8.5 sacks). The Montana linebacking corps is paced by senior Tyler Corwin, who ranks second on the team with 91 tackles, to go with seven tackles for loss, two sacks and two interceptions.
Overall, the Grizzlies' defense is strongest against the run, allowing 116 yards per game to rank 28th in FCS. Montana is seventh nationally in scoring defense (16.6 points per game) and 37th in total defense (325 yards).
Montana's offense hasn't won any style points like some of the units in years past, but the Grizzlies continue to get the job done under the direction of senior signal-caller Cole Bergquist (2,747 yards, 25 TDs, seven interceptions). He leads a Montana attack that ranks 16th in FCS in total offense (406 yards) and a passing offense that averages 220 yards per contest.
Since mid-season, Chase Reynolds (1,413 yards, 19 TDs) has been the lynch pin of the running game after beginning the campaign as Andrew Schmidt's understudy. The top targets in the Grizzlies' passing game are Marc Mariani (59 receptions, 1,086 yards, 15 TDs, 18.4 average) and Mike Ferriter (47 catches, 17.1 yards per reception, nine TDs).
This rematch needs to be a tight, defensive affair for Montana to return to Chattanooga for the first time since the 2004 season. Montana is not a team that can easily play catch-up, lacking some of the big-play abilities that some former Grizzlies' teams have possessed. Playing at home and with more balance on both sides of the ball, JMU should be the team that returns to the title game. Sports Network Predicted Outcome: James Madison 33, Montana 21.
GL whatever you decide.
Tuff call for me, and I'm pissed that I didn't play it when it was 7:hang:
 
I will look into the Missouri-Minnesota game this evening and post a few thoughts.
Montana-JMU is a tough call at 7 points.
JMU is the logical favorite, but their games against top competition have all been touchdown or less. They seem to be able to win, but covering is another matter. Not a game I would bet during the regular season, but gun to the head I would lay the points and pray.
Montana is very tough at home; they avnged their only loss this year when the beat Weber St rather comfortably last week. They areclearly better now than they were early this season.
I'm surprised to see Richmond favored as a road team, but their first year coach seems to have them peaking at the right time. Can they continue to force turnovers? 7 last week, I think 5 the week before.
There seems to be some magic going for them. NIU QB has some nagging injury problems, I think.
I'll have more onthese two games a little later . Out of time righht now.

Yes, they can
 
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