A look back at Cincy's week 1 and what I expect from Oregon St./Cincy

Dmoney416

Ben Mauk's Counsel
You see the 59-3 score from last night's SEMO/Cincy match-up and figure that it was a typical D-IA vs. D-IAA game. It some ways it was, but I got to watch some of this game on ESPN360. I'll try to give my early impressions of this team and what I expect for their tilt against Oregon St next week.

Attendance last night:

Just over 20,000 (which I believe is about 15,000 short of the capacity). I think they will be expecting 30-32,000 for next week's game.

Cincinnati Offense:

- Ben Mauk was 18-27 for 240 yards, 2 TDs, and an INT. Besides an ugly interception, he was decidedly average. He took off a couple of times and did not look very fast, but he took a couple of hits to his surgically repaired shoulder, and it held up. His best play was a scramble and 56 yard toss to Marshawn Gilyard. His arm strength is not quite there yet, but it will get there.

- Mauk's back-up, Tony Pike, was 6-9 for 60 yards and a TD. He could likely be the heir apparent when this season ends. There is already some message board chatter that Pike is better. I'd temper my enthusiasm as he threw 9 passes vs. an exhausted I-AA defense. He did look good though and has the advantage of being 6'6"

- The offensive line was good and consistently opened holes for runners. The team averaged 6.6 ypc on 47 carries. There was some pressure on Mauk, but nothing too bad.

- This used to be a 3-headed RB system with Butler Benton, Greg Moore, and Bradley Glatthaar. If last night was any indication, Coach Kelly could be going with Benton and converted LB Jacob Ramsey as his main duo. Benton ran 12 times for 101 yards and a TD. Ramsey had 79 yards and 2 TDs on 16 carries. Greg Moore had 5 carries for 29 yards, but fumbled (a recurring problem for him), which led to SEMO's only score. Glatthaar blocked for the most part.

- Marshawn Gilyard was the only one to have a big game at WR, with 8 catches, 136 yards, and a TD. Ten players caught passes in all, and I expect this to be a revolving door throughout the season. The RBs will contribute here as well.

- They passed 36 times (300 yards) and ran 47 (312 yards). I think Kelly will ease this team into the spread scheme as they mixed it up a lot. Sometimes they went 5 WRs, they used the option, etc.

- They were helped by 6 SEMO turnovers. The offense was pretty good, but probably not as impressive as you would think given the 59 points.

Cincinnati Defense:

- Overall this unit did very well. They only gave up 3 points despite two early turnovers that put SEMO deep in Cincinnati territory. SEMO had 1st and goal on the 1 yard line at one point and they held them to a FG. This looks to be the strength of the team again this season.

- The pass defense looks very good with Mike Mickens and Haruki Nakamura anchoring the secondary. Mickens had 2 INTS and a return for a touchdown. He is fast becoming a lockdown corner. SEMO only had 82 yards passing on 12-22.

- They gave up 169 yards rushing on 37 carries (4.6 average). They actually shut down the running game, as most of the RBs were stuffed on a consistent basis. However, SEMO QB Victor Anderson was multi-dimensional and hurt them often with his feet. Anderson had 114 yards on 13 tries, including a 36 yard dash to the Cincy 1 yard line early on. I feel that the run D is pretty good, but this team could really struggle against QBs capable of taking off. Whenever Anderson faded back to pass, the D seemed to be concentrated on the pass and seemed unaware that he was capable of running.

Cincinnati Special Teams

Punter Kevin Huber looked good, punting twice - both over 50 yards. He had a 52 and a 56 yard punt.

Kicking was horrendous. Jake Rogers started the game at kicker and missed a 47-yard FG, missed two extra points, and basically brushed the inside of the post in making one of the XPs (He was 1-3 on XPs overall).

Brandon Yingling then came in and hit 4-5 extra points, which sadly was markedly better than Rogers' performance. Yes, they missed three extra points in this game. Call it first game jitters, but you play on ESPN against a respectable BCS team in six days, you better get your act together.

Kick return coverage was also sub-par, with SEMO putting together some nice returns.


In what I saw of Oregon St. last night, Bernard seemed to be a load as did the team's run defense. However, frankly I feel they were lucky that Johnson couldn't suit up for the second half, as I think the game may have gone down to the wire had he played the whole game.

Looking into the UC/OSU game, I can't really recommend a side unless one of them is a prohibitive underdog (like +6 or more) and that seems unlikely. However, with neither passing game being overly impressive, and both defenses seemingly solid (not to mention Cincy's kicking struggles), I think an under play on this game could be good if the price is right.
 
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I agree with what you said about Cinci. It was tough to get a read on the OSU defense last night after Brian Johnson went out as well. I'll be all over OSU if this opens up near -6.5 and I can get them for the same line I had them last night. I was extremely disappointed in Serna's punting abilities as well. However hopefully the Bearcats blowout allows this line to be around a TD
 
oregon state will likely be over a td favorite. so you will like cincy in that spot ?

Yes, if they are getting more than a TD, I like them to cover. Anything under that, I would probably recommend a no play/O St play.

VK, May I ask why you believe they will be over a TD 'dog in this game? I generally suck at predicting opening lines, so I would just like to know why. I kind of thought Oregon St would come out in the -4 to -6 area.

If the line is higher than 7, I'll have to look at the game again and make sure that my homerism is not tainting my outlook on the game, as I don't see any significant advantage for Oregon St, save for special teams.
 
Great writeup D. Will have to look closely at this one next week. Although that QB situation at OSU is really fucked up, they played pretty well save for the first half. Good adjustments at halftime and came out and dominated. If OSU is favored by more than a TD though, I will defintly have to take a look at Cincy. GL
 
the short answer is that my power rankings going into week 1 made oregon state 9.5 over cincy. Oregon state was somewhat impressive in victory and qb now has game under belt and cincy stomped as expected as well. no key injuries to speak of. so i have no reason to adjust either PR.

also as far as advantages go .... oregon state has quite a few in my estimation. a quick glance at collegekingrex thread on top 30 unit rankings should point some of those out as the beavers appear quite often. the ol of beavers is very formidable. look at rushing yards for and against in utah contest. i havent made my own line yet but my pure power ranking line calls for 9.5. of course i had them as over a td favorite vs utah as well and that game closed around 6 or 6.5 i think. so my PR for oregon state might be higher than most.
 
I was listening to the game on the radio and once SEMO didn't cash in early when they had the chance, I knew my play on them was screwed. They basically did everything in their power to help Cincy cover the huge number but hey that's what I get for playin a dog when everyone and their brother knows that favs are my game.

Nice job with the recaps, good stuff!
 
the short answer is that my power rankings going into week 1 made oregon state 9.5 over cincy. Oregon state was somewhat impressive in victory and qb now has game under belt and cincy stomped as expected as well. no key injuries to speak of. so i have no reason to adjust either PR.

also as far as advantages go .... oregon state has quite a few in my estimation. a quick glance at collegekingrex thread on top 30 unit rankings should point some of those out as the beavers appear quite often. the ol of beavers is very formidable. look at rushing yards for and against in utah contest. i havent made my own line yet but my pure power ranking line calls for 9.5. of course i had them as over a td favorite vs utah as well and that game closed around 6 or 6.5 i think. so my PR for oregon state might be higher than most.

Thanks for the input - is the 9.5 spread on a neutral field or is that considering home-field? Admittedly you are far better than I at creating power rankings and lines.

I have to disagree though with them looking really impressive in victory though. I didn't think that they were unimpressive, but they didn't solve their QB problem and neither of them was all that productive. I also don't think that getting a game will automatically solve their QB issue (just like one game won't solve Cincy's kicking game).

I agree that Oregon St. is strong on both lines and at RB. However, I don't think any advantage they have at these positions is huge, and I actually think Cincy might be a little more balanced on offense at this point (though this can be argued given each team's respective competition last night).

I guess well have to agree to disagree on this one. Oregon St. is a solid squad, but I don't think they deserve to be favored by more than 7 here (I can see them being favored by 7, but more than that is too much IMO). I know that Cincy is no Blacksburg, but it is still a cross-country road game against respectable competition.

GL this week and this season VK. :cheers:
 
I plan to wager on Cincinnati versus Oregon State in next week's Thursday matchup. I think Oregon State's offense will not be as potent this year, and they did nothing to overly impress me in the contest versus Utah.

Cincinnati on paper looks to be pretty solid as they were a bowl team last year and return most of their starters on both sides. I have always been a big Brian Kelly fan. He is one of the best coaches in the country, that unless you are a hardcore college football fan......errrrrrr sports gambler you haven't heard of.

He is an excellent overall coach and really like his offensive mind. I will take the points with the home dog here as I think Oregon State is overrated and will have to travel across the country and two time zones and play a pretty good Cincinnati squad.
 
not saying i am betting oregon state in this spot. i am saying that i expect them to be a 7 point favorite or more ( i gave cincy 4 for homefield so yes it is accounted for). cincy has proven before that they can hang with some good teams. just ask the top of the big east. admittedly i believe that the beavers are stronger than most people do .. so there is a chance it comes in under a 7.

utah would be favored over cincy on neutral field ( prior to johnson injury).
 
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