91 Year Old Fathers Advice To Us Youngins...

[Vapster]

"Son" He Says Last Night After Our One Large Glass Of Red Wine On My Once A Week Visit...

"Son. The Key To Winning Money In Baseball Is To Bet The Road Team In Game One Of Every New Series."

When DId You Come Up With This System Day...

"I Watch A Lot Of Baseball... I Know These Things."

Thoughts @2daBank

Anyone Else?

 

[2daBank]

Never heard that but I tend to think home field is overrated so that good, I also like to bet against teams 1st game home from a long road trip so you would get those in there. I’m sure it not the worst idea but I dunno how well ya would do playing it blindly?

 

[KJ]

Seems legit, you know you're getting 27 outs every time

Not sure if it includes heavy faves or not, like Yanks at KC for instance

 

[big_units]

easy way to deduce if it's a great strategy or not...is your father wealthy at 91?

 

[2daBank]

I honestly don’t think home field in baseball is worth anything overall. Some teams, some pitchers, some games maybe there a slight edge to home field but In general I don’t think home field should effect price but I think pretty clear it usually does.

Now that I’m talking bout it I would love to know if there any kind of set value for mlb home teams like they do with football where we basically know exactly how many points they give for each nfl teams home field!! Can’t believe I’ve never looked into this, lol. My guess would be no and they take it game by game, I don’t feel like there any way they could say team A gets 20 cents automatically for home, that wouldn’t work out very well.

 

[RetroVK]

I think as of now teams appear to be roughly 60 games over .500 at home and roughly 50 games under .500 away and very few teams have a better away record than home record (though some do).

So it does matter.

The question is whether it matters as much as the market thinks.

I also prefer road teams to home teams.

 

[2daBank]

I think as of now teams appear to be roughly 60 games over .500 at home and roughly 50 games under .500 away and very few teams have a better away record than home record (though some do).

So it does matter.

The question is whether it matters as much as the market thinks.

I also prefer road teams to home teams.

60 games above .500 combined after the amount of games played on the year isn’t much of a dent. Isn’t nothing but I’d bet it gets priced above 51ish% (im guessing that bout what 60 games above after this amount of games is). I did look at teams home/road records going back to 2010 and think I saw more than 20 teams had winning home records over that span and only 5 had winning road records so obviously it matters a bit more than I might have made it sound.

It doesn’t matter much to me when capping a individual game tho. Certain pitchers it might matter more to me than others, certain teams that just happen to be terrible or great home or away, Rockies a team I think much more highly about at home (or less of on road) but in general I don’t simply move my number based on home/road, I guess when I say “doesn’t matter” it just in terms of most the other sports I put a defined value on home field/court where as I don’t in baseball cause I don’t really think there is one. I don’t think raw emotion/intensity level wins baseball games the way it can football or hoops so I don’t think home crowds influence things the way they can in other sports by energizing a team or the other obvious factors noise can effect in a football game. Unlike the other sports where the field/court are all the same There are park uniqueness factors and certainly are mlb teams I think are built to play in their parks which obviously gives them a edge but even that is something that changes so I don’t know any way to say “park A is worth however many cents to the home team” the way I can say Seahawks -3.5 off the top when they play at home.

Since you prefer road teams as well im assuming you agree home field is often given more respect in the line than it probably should get? It not like I don’t play home teams, if I had to guess think it a pretty safe bet to say I play more road tho.