88 lines about 32 teams

[Joe Public]

A couple of weeks ago I tried to distill the learnings from the 'What have we learned' thread into something more concise here. This time what I'd like to do is try to sum up what I'm getting from teams three games in.

Generally three games is enough for teams to get tape on other teams to really start breaking them down. That's why you generally tend to see a change in Week Four. Defenses start to catch up, in large part thanks to film study, and it's harder to catch teams flat footed.

Given that, I think there are certain things we know about each team. I'm going to list out the first things that come to my mind with each team. The ones I don't know enough about, maybe some of you will be kind enough to fill in the blanks.

Oh, and I'm sure this will go over 88 lines, but I liked the title.

AFC EAST

New England
Offense: Very balanced, getting good play from each facet (running/passing) and everybody looks good and explosive.
Defense: Playing extremely well for a team that doesn't get Seymour and Harrison back yet.
Lean to bet: Lay the points, totals toward the over, but hesitant based on the defense's play.

NY Jets
Offense: Shaky, line questions, if Penny's healthy, maybe good for 20 a game, but at least one turnover as well.
Defense: Doesn't scare me.
Lean to bet: Will beat bad teams, but their defense will give up points, beware the back door and good teams.

Buffalo
Offense: Without Losman even more green.
Defense: Incredibly thin and not very good.
Lean to bet: Against, every week. Mostly because of injury.

Miami
Offense: I question their offensive line (anybody second this?), I don't believe in Trent Green. If they can protect against Cover 2 teams, they should move the ball, but will they score?
Defense: I'm not sold on this defense either (anybody have any thoughts?)
Lean to bet: Against if they're playing a good team, particularly one with a good defense.


AFC NORTH

Cleveland
Offense: Derek Anderson has a big arm, but bad reads. Jamal Lewis is a man on a mission. The O-line should improve and jell as the season goes on, Tucker comes back from suspension in Week Five (I think?).
Defense: Bad. You can run on this team, consistently. Their line is bad.
Lean to bet: Against, particularly against teams that can run the ball and pass protect.

Cincy
Offense: Can look great, but PlayStation-esque, they go for big plays, make sure their offensive line is at least somewhere close to healthy.
Defense: What defense. And their special teams suck.
Lean to bet: Overs, on them vs. teams with poor secondaries and who lack offensive scoring skill.

Pittsburgh
Offense: Looks great so far. Only injury looks like it can slow them down.
Defense: Ditto.
Lean to bet: On, especially at home.

Baltimore
Offense: Looks like typical Baltimore. McNair can't stay healthy. Seem like they can run, but can't really run it up.
Defense: Seems strong, but also very willing to give up the backdoor cover.
Lean to bet: On as a short favorite, against if they're giving up a lot of points to a team with offensive skill.


AFC SOUTH

Indy
Offense: Nothing worries me here.
Defense: Less worries me here than I thought would.
Lean to bet: On, but only with small spreads. Dungy and Manning aren't about covering big numbers, never have been. Dungy also doesn't seem to adjust well to the teams in his division, once they get a read on the Colts, they seem to be able to stay in the game with them no matter the talent disparity.

Jax
Offense: I hate this offense. It can't seem to throw, and it only occasionally seems to be able to run (anybody care to disagree or have anything to add?)
Defense: Seems iffy, but I could be wrong.
Lean to bet: Against vs. good offensive teams, I can't see them winning any sort of shootout whatsoever.

Tennessee
Offense: VY covers the number, he is now worth an extra three points to me on the road, maybe four at home. Not enough talent around him, though, feels like Vick early in the Atlanta years only with a better arm and decent protection.
Defense: Playing surprisingly well for a defense I don't consider all that solid.
Lean to bet: On, especially against bad teams, this team could be this year's New Orleans.

Houston
Offense: Schaub looks good, but they just lost their starting center, they've lost their biggest offensive weapon for a few more weeks.
Defense: Suffered losses there as well. Seems thin (agree anyone?)
Lean to bet: On against bad teams, they seem well coached. But against AFC teams that can score Houston looks like they're going to struggle.

AFC WEST

Denver
Offense: Cutler's suffering from overblown expectations, he's not that good yet. Henry is, though, and this team should get to 20 points each game if they just pound that guy.
Defense: I think this is the worst defensive line in the league, they cannot stop the run to save their lives. It doesn't matter how good Champ Bailey is if teams never need to throw on you.
Lean to bet: Against, particularly when laying more than a FG. This team is overvalued.

San Diego
Offense: The Norv Turner Factor is kicking in. Their WRs aren't very good, and Rivers looks like he's having his sophomore slump.
Defense: Go over the top and you should be fine--as usual.
Lean to bet: Overs against teams that can score.

KC
Offense: Really bad. They lost a lot on their line, they have no WRs, so teams just load up to stop LJ.
Defense: Coming along, but not great and how many games can you ask a defense to hold the other team under 10 points because that's all you can score. Should get run-down by the second half of the season.
Lean to bet: Against, every week until they change QBs.

Oakland
Offense: Zone blocking has helped them and they've adjusted to it well. Lamont Jordan is playing very, very well. With McCown out hard to gauge how Culpepper will play (unless somebody has thoughts out there).
Defense: Given up points in the second half of every game so far. That's three in a row, seems to be a trend. Special teams inconsistent as well.
Lean to bet: Wait to see on Culpepper, but I lean against and over.

(NFC to follow)

 

[Joe Public]

NFC EAST

Dallas
Offense: Looks great. Tough to complain, except maybe in the running game a little.
Defense: Seems like you can throw on them a little, but Newman's back, maybe he'll fix that, loss of their NT suggests you can run some on 'em.
Lean to bet: On, and the over.

Philly
Offense: Because of coaching, as Donovan goes, so goes this offense. The roller coaster should continue.
Defense: If healthy, it should be good, particularly in the secondary, pass rush a bit of a concern, running defense too. Their special teams aren't good either.
Lean to bet: So inconsistent early, tough to call. Spot bet.

Washington
Offense: Very green QB, big problems on the right side of the line. Poor play calling and clock management a given.
Defense: Looks better than expected. I still feel they can be beaten over the top.
Lean to bet: Against when they play good teams, off when they're playing bad teams.

NY Giants
Offense: Eli's inconsistent, they're banged up.
Defense: They're banged up, too. Weak secondary might be an understatement.
Lean to bet: Against and overs when they play aerial offenses.


NFC NORTH

ChicagoOffense: New QB, potential to turn around some.
Defense: Too many injuries.
Lean to bet: Depending on Griese, overs. Possibly against.

Minny
Offense: TJ is too inexperienced, maybe not good at all. Holcomb is not a starter. Do they have any recievers? AP looks like the real deal.
Defense: The only thing that will keep them marginally respectable, but watch for injury.
Lean to bet: Against, but not laying too many points.

Green BayOffense: Maybe Farve's doing it with mirrors, but he's doing it. Can they run the ball? (I really don't know the answer to this, help?)
Defense: Maybe not great, but better than many, and unknown.
Lean to bet: On vs. bad teams, although the SD game probably took some value away from them.

Detroit
Offense: I like this passing offense a lot, if Kevin Jones can give them even a hint of a running game, this team should be good for 24 almost every week.
Defense: This defense should be good for about 24 every week, too.
Lean to bet: Overs and on against teams that can't score.


NFC SOUTH

New Orleans
Offense: Losing Deuce kills this team almost as much as their line play. Brees is all over the place. They may score, they may not, who knows.
Defense: Jason David being hurt may be addition through subtraction, but they're not good either.
Lean to bet: Against until the public completely abandons ship and the value leaves their lines.

Tampa Bay
Offense: (I need help on this team)
Defense:
Lean to bet: Not quite sure what to do with TB.

Carolina
Offense: (I need help here, too.) I feel like they can run, but with Delhome hurt it's hard to judge what's going on here.
Defense: (Help)
Lean to bet: Not sure

Atlanta
Offense: Moved to zone blocking, but don't have the personnel for it. They seem lost generally.
Defense: I think this defense is going to get worn down from being on the field too much--and I don't think it's all that good to begin with. (anyone agree?)
Lean to bet: Against, every week. I think this team is in the midst of quitting on the season.


NFC WEST

Seattle
Offense: Alexander's broken arm limits him, their receivers don't scare anybody, their offense doesn't scare me.
Defense: Aggressive, but not as good as it's been in years past.
Lean to bet: On at home as a small fave, against on the road, against vs. the AFC.

Arizona
Offense: Lots of talent, QB play a question. Running much, much better this year, blocking better, too.
Defense: Seems somewhat consistent. Maybe not really good, but they don't seem like
Lean to bet: On when getting a lot of points, maybe on as a short line home favorite.

San Francisco
Offense: Alex Smith misses Norv Turner, seems to be getting worse. Vernon Davis is hurt, again. Do their receivers worry anybody?
Defense: Better. Much better, the thing that's going to help them most.
Lean to bet: On at home as a dog.

St. Louis
Offense: A mess without Pace, now without Jackson and with Bulger banged up.
Defense: Banged up as well.
Lean to bet: Against simply due to injury. Not a bad team, but very thin.

 

[B.A.R.]

Joe, incredible thread.

This is great material for this coming week. I totally agree we have a nice sample and now is time to use it to our advantage.

 

[B.A.R.]

Regarding Detroit

They scored 36 against OKALnd..but some late..so lets say 28

Against Minny..shoulda had 28-31

Against Philly easily could of had 40...had 21 mid-second qtr and from then on out game was over and they missed FG's..had a TO..and got sacked late in redzone twice I believe..

Thi team is capable of averaging 28 a game this year...

When I will play ON them..like I have so far..against bad QB's...hence week1/2

I was hesistant week 3 due to Nabb and Westbrook being banged up..but I knew better

also..they are worst team against screenpass in lague..BY FAR

Any team with a top 5-10 QB..play on that team against DET

 

[Joe Public]

Thanks, BAR. I appreciate it.

also..they are worst team against screenpass in lague..BY FAR

This is very interesting, that I didn't know--that play to Wesbrook where the entire Lions' defense failed to tackle him notwithstanding.

What's interesting about this is that this week they get Griese who cannot throw deep very well, he's never been able to. So what you're likely to see is a lot of underneath stuff and, yes, some screen passes.

I still think the Lions can bite this team this week, though.

 

[brewer]

if the lions cant beat the junior varisty bears at home there is something wrong with the NFL

 

[B.A.R.]

Thanks, BAR. I appreciate it.

also..they are worst team against screenpass in lague..BY FAR

This is very interesting, that I didn't know--that play to Wesbrook where the entire Lions' defense failed to tackle him notwithstanding.

What's interesting about this is that this week they get Griese who cannot throw deep very well, he's never been able to. So what you're likely to see is a lot of underneath stuff and, yes, some screen passes.

I still think the Lions can bite this team this week, though.

I was on Lions till QB change...

I think he can dink and dunk all day...

close game..no play I think either way

Lamont Jordan-Brian Westbrook and effin the guy from Minny..just killed us this year on screenpasses...sickening

We have a top 5-10 front 4 but after that the back 7 is mediocre..at best

 

[B.A.R.]

if the lions cant beat the junior varisty bears at home there is something wrong with the NFL

No more reverse jinx Brewer...

Too bad CHI doesn't have 2 football teams so you could change your allegience

 

[brewer]

huh?

 

[brewer]

Trouble at the corners
Vasher, Tillman out; McBride, Manning must pick up Bears
By Vaughn McClure
Tribune staff reporter

September 27, 2007

Nathan Vasher and Charles Tillman tried to sound optimistic about their injury status Wednesday. The reality, however, is the Bears' starting cornerbacks both will watch from the sideline Sunday when the team plays at Detroit.

Vasher has a groin injury that "could be up to a month if it's as bad as feared," according to a source. The results of an MRI won't be back until Thursday, and all Vasher could say was he was feeling better than he did Tuesday.

As for Tillman, he visited an orthopedic surgeon Monday to examine his high ankle sprain. Tillman said the ankle was fine Wednesday and that it wouldn't hold him back. Tillman even said the team would have to defend the Lions' receivers by "hitting 'em in the mouth." He, like Vasher, was held out of practice.

Four other starters were held out: linebacker Lance Briggs (hamstring), defensive tackle Tommie Harris (sprained knee), guard Ruben Brown (ankle) and tackle Fred Miller (knee). Harris is likely to sit out Sunday's game too. A source indicated Briggs would play.

Nose guard Darwin Walker (knee), end Adewale Ogunleye (hip), safety Adam Archuleta (broken right hand) and running back Adrian Peterson (calf) all had limited participation in practice.

With Vasher and Tillman sidelined, Ricky Manning Jr. and rookie Trumaine McBride will start on the corners. McBride flashed a wide smile as he talked about starting.

"That's quite an opportunity for me, to get in and just do what I do," McBride said. "[Vasher] has helped me in the film room, helped me on the field, just to get my technique straight and coverages under control."

Manning, who will remain as the nickel back in the team's nickel package, talked about lining up as the starting corner.

"I haven't been playing outside this whole time, but for me, it's just refine the tools," he said. "Not refining the position, but just getting back to my outside technique."

McBride and Manning will have a tough challenge against Detroit's tall receivers, led by 6-foot-2-inch Roy Williams. Rookie Calvin Johnson (6-5) hurt his back making a catch Sunday and his status is in limbo. The Lions have the league's top-rated passing offensive, averaging 345.3 yards per game.

The Bears' secondary has taken the biggest injury hit this season, with starting free safety Mike Brown lost for the season to a knee injury after Week 1. Archuleta intends to play with his injury, as he did with a broken thumb while in St. Louis his rookie season. But if he's limited, Brandon McGowan and Kevin Payne will be in the mix.

Rookie cornerback Corey Graham also could see time in the secondary. After being inactive for the last game, Graham said the coaching staff told him he definitely would dress for Sunday. He could play corner while Manning moves inside in the nickel.

If Harris is out, Walker could take his spot, leaving the nose to Anthony Adams. The Bears already lost their original starting nose tackle, Dusty Dvoracek, to a knee injury.

Harris offered his assessment of how rash of injuries would affect the defense.

"Guys might be playing, guys might not be playing, nobody knows," he said. "I don't even think about it. You can't. This is the NFL. You have to find a way to win, injuries or no injuries."

Coach Lovie Smith was asked what kind of adjustments needed to be made to address the injury situation.

"Not a lot," he said. "It's the next guy up. We talked a lot about our 53-man roster. Now we're getting a chance to see exactly what it is. The next guy in line will move up."

 

[B.A.R.]

Just take the Over in DET and CHI and be happy..I don;t play totals in niffel but thats a golden spot IMO

 

[brewer]

im glad i have the kitna/roy williams 1 2 combo n fantasy.

 

[Joe Public]

Just take the Over in DET and CHI and be happy

Yeah, I'm on this.

 

[B.A.R.]

Just take the Over in DET and CHI and be happy

Yeah, I'm on this.

Det will get points..and Griese will move ball...the x-factor9s0...det has uscked on return covereage(i.e. Hester) and Kitan will cough ball up a few times on pressure(lets say a pick and fumble)

 

[imgn]

This may come as a bit of a surprise but me thinks that the Texans defense has a chance of becoming elite in a couple of years. The D line is
very solid with Mario & rookie Okoye ( ya think the Ville misses this guy ?? ) to go along with Johnson and Weaver. MLB Ryans is another future star. Sec. is banged up this year though it looks like Houston is only
a few players away from having a dominant D

 

[AgainstThePublic]

Joe.... I think I can help with TB since I live in Tampa and follow them closely. IMO they have overachieved thus far this season. They played IMO a not so great Sea team on the road and loss. Then they come home and beat the Saints who are totally lost. I actually thought TB would win this game seeing as they were coming off a tough road loss (i say tough b/c TB never plays well out West) and playing at home first game of the year. Then there is the Rams and boy did they look bad last Sunday. TB defense played very well and has been playign well the first three weeks. TB running game is a question mark right now. Williams has struggled and Graham got more carries last week and did a great job. I believe his stats were 8 carries-75 yards- 2tds. Graham hit the holes hard whereas Williams dances. A RB controversy could be brewing. The reason for the 2-1 start is because of Jeff Garcia. He has made no mistakes and is the leader on offense that had been missing the last few years. With rookies at QB who weren't ready for the NFL the last few years, TB lacked a smart and veteran QB. Receiving is a nightmare with the exception of Galloway. Once teams start to double team Galloway, the trouble will begin for the TB passing game. This is just a brief overview of what I have seen thus far. TB hasn't really played a playoff team IMO. I would've said NO but they are crap this year. This week will be a challenge. Hope this helps.

 

[Joe Public]

That's really helpful, ATP, thanks.

 

[C-Gold]

Is this for week 4 of 2006 or 2007?