8/30 MLB Discussion

Another day, another Cubs total for me. Going over. Cubs hit Fonty well, Braves hit lefties and Monty coming back from DL after no rehab. Think you’re getting some value at 8 and now 8.5.
 
Clevinger is great during day, pitching pretty well, but much better on 6 , on 5 now and prefers away

Odorizzi worst rest by far but in good form

Wind blowing in, but warm with young ump visitor/over type
 
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Easy bet on th ROX for me tonight. Marquez is dealing right now and Lauer is back tonight after being on the DL for a month. ROX bats owned him when he was healthy, I see nothing to change that tonight. No clue how many the ROX put up but I don’t see the Padres getting more than 2 off of Marquez, and that may be in the first inning. Risking $450 to win $300
 
ROX used the day off to skip Senzatela and also pushed back Anderson. They both needed extra days off.
 
sharp plays can be identified many ways, these were simply because higher $ money bet on that side than % of wagers on other side (usually anything over 20% difference is of note

for instance
65% of tix on ATL but 92% of money


here's info from someone else that I notice(unrelated)
Pulled together a simple spreadsheet comparing pitching and offensive data for first innings. All numbers are for July and August.
  • PIT/STL | No runs scored | 1u (-120) | Risk 1.20 to win 1.00
    • Musgrove has allowed runs in 2 of last 8 starts (25%); STL has scored in 19 of their last 52 first innings (36.5%).
    • Gant has allowed runs in 2 of last 9 first innings (22.2%); PIT has scored in 12 of last 51 first innings (23.5%).
  • SEA/OAK | Yes runs scored | 2u (-115) | Risk 2.30 to win 2.00
    • LeBlanc has allowed runs in 3 of last 10 starts (30%); OAK has scored in 17 of their last 50 first innings (34%).
    • Montas has allowed runs in 2 of last 4 first innings (50%); SEA has scored in 19 of last 49 first innings (38.8%).
  • ARI/LAD | Yes runs scored | 3u (-105) | Risk 3.15 to win 3
    • Ray has allowed runs in 5 of last 10 starts (50%); LAD has scored in 19 of their last 51 first innings (37.3%).
    • Hill has allowed runs in 3 of last 9 first innings (33.3%); ARI has scored in 24 of last 50 first innings (48%).
Click to expand...
 
Colorado does look good
Killersports has this up
Monster ROI Trend of the Day
The Astros are 0-5 SU this season with Justin
Verlander at home when they won in his last two
starts. Houston was an average of minus 257.5 on
the moneyline in these five losses.
The SDQL text is:
team=Astros and starter=Justin Verlander and H
and s:W and ss:W and s:W and season = 2018
I should mention that Verlander has a 5.33 ERA with Maldonado this season based on 27 innings
Yesterdays stupid decision may be coming back but it is a much better day of week for Houston
 
tuck321 said:
Colorado does look good
Killersports has this up
Monster ROI Trend of the Day
The Astros are 0-5 SU this season with Justin
Verlander at home ...
Click to expand...

I will add they are 5-10 on year for a ridiculous 113% ROI fading JV and he's lost last 4 too

but, it is the Angels...lets be serious o_O

6242c1c1-224e-41f2-b5c2-e423bdd82f44.png
 
Rox -150 and / or -1.5 +125 may be a multi unit play

one of my favorite plays tonight. Marquez has been great vs Pads this year, Lauer has been bad vs Rox as well as lately, and Col been hitting much better last few weeks. I think this game may be a blowout
 
mrpickem said:
Rox -150 and / or -1.5 +125 may be a multi unit play

one of my favorite plays tonight. Marquez has been great vs Pads this year, Lauer has been bad vs Rox as well as lately, and Col been hitting much better last few weeks. I think this game may be a blowout
Click to expand...

Like it too. -1 is -118.
 
Can someone please tell me what the story is with the Yankees? -335 today? I mean come the fuck on with these lines. It wasn't bad enough that the White Sox took the series from them? Now we're at -335 with JA "Clayton Kershaw" Happ without Judge, Sanchez and Didi. This shit has to stop.

I get the whole thing with Yankee money and how people always throw money at them. But the absurdity is nauseating. Wouldn't -275 be a little more reasonable? I get Liriano is a joke but so is Reynaldo fuckin Lopez who shut the Yankees down again for the 2nd time.
 
peelpub94 said:
Can someone please tell me what the story is with the Yankees? -335 today? I mean come the fuck on with these lines. It wasn't bad enough that the White Sox took the series from them? Now we're at -335 with JA "Clayton Kershaw" Happ without Judge, Sanchez and Didi. This shit has to stop.

I get the whole thing with Yankee money and how people always throw money at them. But the absurdity is nauseating. Wouldn't -275 be a little more reasonable? I get Liriano is a joke but so is Reynaldo fuckin Lopez who shut the Yankees down again for the 2nd time.
Click to expand...


Those guys have no business being -300+ against even Hawaii. Pretty sure we could bat as well as at least the 8th and 9th guy in that lineup.
 
peelpub94 said:
Can someone please tell me what the story is with the Yankees? -335 today? I mean come the fuck on with these lines. It wasn't bad enough that the White Sox took the series from them? Now we're at -335 with JA "Clayton Kershaw" Happ without Judge, Sanchez and Didi. This shit has to stop.

I get the whole thing with Yankee money and how people always throw money at them. But the absurdity is nauseating. Wouldn't -275 be a little more reasonable? I get Liriano is a joke but so is Reynaldo fuckin Lopez who shut the Yankees down again for the 2nd time.
Click to expand...

The beatings will continue until morale improves
 
Paulsy01 said:
Easy bet on th ROX for me tonight. Marquez is dealing right now and Lauer is back tonight after being on the DL for a month. ROX bats owned him when he was healthy, I see nothing to change that tonight. No clue how many the ROX put up but I don’t see the Padres getting more than 2 off of Marquez, and that may be in the first inning. Risking $450 to win $300
Click to expand...

Lauer has had 2 starts with lots of rest and got bombed. GL Gl Paulsy
 
As I said earlier, Braves/Cubs O8.5 for me. Monty coming off the DL, no rehab, not a shutdown guy anyways, Braves hit lefties extremely well, Cubs bat have been hot (minus yesterday afternoon in a game with other factors), and hit Folty well. Probably my last bases play until Sunday. I'll be at the game tonight. BOL everyone.
 
Ryno14 said:
As I said earlier, Braves/Cubs O8.5 for me. Monty coming off the DL, no rehab, not a shutdown guy anyways, Braves hit lefties extremely well, Cubs bat have been hot (minus yesterday afternoon in a game with other factors), and hit Folty well. Probably my last bases play until Sunday. I'll be at the game tonight. BOL everyone.
Click to expand...

Despite owning the best record in the National League, the Cubs have not been a great bet as an underdog. Chicago has been an underdog 22 times this season and has only won seven of those games and has dropped its last six road games in that spot. The main reason that stands out is the lack of offense as the Cubbies only managed 10 runs total in those six games and are averaging 2.1 runs per game in losses as an underdog.
 
First half bet on Pitt. Ump favors the road team a lot and no one has seen Musgrove while Pirates have hit Gant well. Not a big bet
Verlander with bad catcher still want to see ump this stuff happens a LOT with the ASTROS not an accident this manager wants to constantly test his pitchers
 
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Heaney also stuck with catcher 9 ERA based on 5 innings. Astros might survive over?
 
Ryno14 said:
As I said earlier, Braves/Cubs O8.5 for me. Monty coming off the DL, no rehab, not a shutdown guy anyways, Braves hit lefties extremely well, Cubs bat have been hot (minus yesterday afternoon in a game with other factors), and hit Folty well. Probably my last bases play until Sunday. I'll be at the game tonight. BOL everyone.
Click to expand...
May join depending on ump 9-4 12-3 days of week
 
tuck321 said:
First half bet on Pitt. Ump favors the road team a lot and no one has seen Musgrove while Pirates have hit Gant well. Not a big bet
Verlander with bad catcher still want to see ump this stuff happens a LOT with the ASTROS not an accident this manager wants to constantly test his pitchers
Click to expand...

Not to beat a dead horse but when you make a statement like this it comes off as you taking these splits at 100% face value. We already went over the small sample which Maldonado has. If you look further, Verlander's BABIP with Maldonado is .340 - Verlander has been extremely unlucky in this small sample with Maldonado. I love your insight with these splits but it just seems like you overvalue what these numbers actually mean at times.

Can I ask another question.. when you have such a small sample as this with Maldonado and Verlander.. do you take it 1 step further to see who Verlander's opponents were in these cases? Was he facing a really good line up? Was he facing an ump that he hates? Or was he just unlucky like the BABIP suggests? I am not trying to get anyone upset I just want to understand the methods to your madness. We're all here to learn from another.

I took a further look for you and have found the following. Verlander actually has a better SO/W ratio than he does with Stassi. Verlander's bad luck combined with getting abused on the long ball is what has created an inflated ERA with Maldonado. He's given up almost as many home runs with Maldonado as Stassi in half the at bats. Those home runs? Khris Davis, Khris Davis, Arenado, Haniger, just to name a few. Guys that CRUSH the ball against anyone. This tells me Maldonado isn't this "bad catcher" but more about Verlander leaving the ball up & some obvious fatigue in his arm. I highly doubt the results would be as different as you tend to think if Stassi was the catcher in these circumstances.

I will watch this game closely with you tonight to see if we can detect any kind of obvious frustration on Verlander's part, ie: shaking off signs repeatedly, poor pitch framing or just overall bad game calling. But your statement about AJ Hinch constantly testing his pitchers in my opinion is actually the opposite. I think they really like Maldonado on both sides of the ball.
 
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Well waiting on ump info but essentially when you start looking at that info you Know that he is not good with the other catcher and you have a indication that this is an improvement. Do not see why you do not run with the indication. Waiting for really extended trends works. See me betting Degrom under in first halfs but getting in early on trends is not bad because I fail to see equity LOSS and a real chance for equity gain
 
tuck321 said:
Well waiting on ump info but essentially when you start looking at that info you Know that he is not good with the other catcher and you have a indication that this is an improvement. Do not see why you do not run with the indication. Waiting for really extended trends works. See me betting Degrom under in first halfs but getting in early on trends is not bad because I fail to see equity LOSS and a real chance for equity gain
Click to expand...

I just explained that there is a lot more to the numbers you're using to form a blanket opinion of "he is not good with catcher X". But I guess I didn't do a good enough job.
 
Forced play Verlander and Ref 31.2 innings 1.92 ERA no history with Heaney
Guy is a mild homer and a lean to over
Not optional Astros RL and hope we win
 
Getting back sports is a competitive market and I decided a long time ago to play minor indications. Others do what they want. I know it saved me money last night
 
First look at Marquez and his stuff is auto electric tonight. Works fast and is in a nice groove. Fuck the Broncos, this game is where it at, 1, 2, 3, 2 SO’s for Marq LETS GO! :benchpress:
 
Lauer has been sensational even after the shit defense behind him. ROX down 1 after five still hitless. Giant is warming up...
 
3 combined hits so far, 2-2 is all I can ask for in the 6th. Getting my moneys worth tonight :recliner:
 
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