8/25 MLB Discussion

peelpub94

peelpub94

More Guards Than Shawshank
Quintana terrible home and day splits with Ben May who HATES the home team 4-16 on the year. However Quintana has pitched very well in the 2 games this season with May behind the plate. Reds 5th in team OPS vs lefties. Schebler's first game back since mid July who crushes lefties hitting lead off. Wild card is Reds pitcher Luis Castillo who has all the stuff to be an ace but struggles to stay consistent. Hasn't had great success in Wrigley. Wind blowing straight out to center at about 12mph. I think this is the game that goes over in this series.

Edit: total just jumped to 10 as soon as I wrote this...
 
Houston got ignited last night with Altuve's return. The whole line up looks different and seems to be alive. Verlander's August hasn't been so hot but absolutely dominates all Angels hitting every game. Barria is an underrated gem. I'm scared to bet against the Astros right now.
 
Sox lost last night and face Snell tomorrow vs inferior Boston pitcher....do they give extra effort today? I'm not sure how this works but seems like they don't want to get swept by Rays and today is their best chance to avoid that. or maybe they just go to work like it's another day,
 
Perez sucks home and away night and day but he is on rest which is his only redeeming quality. Last 3 starts super ugly

Suarez likes home and is off terrible start for bounceback but worst rest and likes night
 
Wheeler best rest. Super consistent and on a damn roll

Roark in super weird spot, 3 days rest off 41 pitches
4 starts vs mets this year 2 good 2 bad
prefers away/day
also prefers less rest to more so might not be such a bad spot
 
Took him last night. Roark may win but may not like the ump.
Banging Yanks and hitting BOSTON today 7-1 after giving up 10 runs
Tampa game tomorrow if in the day will be a whisper I think but have not seen the ump
under in Miami and less Miami
probably a lot of games
 
Sanchez has allowed 3 earned runs or less in 13 of his 17 starts - his homer rate is down from 2.2 per nine innings last year to 1.2 this season.

One caution about Sanchez is that he was 4-2 with a 2.60 ERA in 12 first-half games but has struggled a bit since. He is 2-2 with a 4.22 ERA in 6 second-half starts.
Sanchez has faced the Marlins once this year, and the Braves won that game 10-6 at home. Sanchez allowed 5 runs 4 earned in 5 innings.
 
peelpub94 said:
Quintana terrible home and day splits with Ben May who HATES the home team 4-16 on the year. However Quintana has pitched very well in the 2 games this season with May behind the plate. Reds 5th in team OPS vs lefties. Schebler's first game back since mid July who crushes lefties hitting lead off. Wild card is Reds pitcher Luis Castillo who has all the stuff to be an ace but struggles to stay consistent. Hasn't had great success in Wrigley. Wind blowing straight out to center at about 12mph. I think this is the game that goes over in this series.

Edit: total just jumped to 10 as soon as I wrote this...
Click to expand...

Castillo is much better at home but on good rest.
 
I kind of think conventional wisdom in the betting public is that the Nats have a chance and must win, whereas I kind of think they are done, little reason to play this wrecked team
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
I kind of think conventional wisdom in the betting public is that the Nats have a chance and must win, whereas I kind of think they are done, little reason to play this wrecked team
Click to expand...

Was at the game last night.. and they just don't even look interested at the plate, swinging at garbage all night.
 
Thats awesome, Yeah peel, its like palpable

and for as terrible as Mets have been they are playing much better and have chance to finish with better record than Nats two boats going in different directions
 
Gant making his debut at Coors after a short last outing, gotta figure he doesn’t make it out of the 5th whereas Marquez has been going 7 full. Going to lay -150 with ROX. I’m going to the game and it will be another gorgeous night. Goo luck
 
Paulsy01 said:
Gant making his debut at Coors after a short last outing, gotta figure he doesn’t make it out of the 5th whereas Marquez has been going 7 full. Going to lay -150 with ROX. I’m going to the game and it will be another gorgeous night. Goo luck
Click to expand...

Enjoy it man!
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
Pivetta off bad start and on worst rest

Aaron Sanchez has not pitched in 2 months
Click to expand...

Havnt had chance to cap anything yet but feel like pivetta has pitched several bad games recently. Or I’m off my rocker and thinking bout someone else? Seem to recall seeing him not long ago and wondering if something was wrong or if maybe he got some fatigue setting in?
 
peelpub94 said:
F5 under 4.5 in Milwaukee? Chacin dealin, same for Taillon, solid under ump in Holbrook.
Click to expand...

Chacin last 6 starts:
6 IP, 0 ER
7 IP, 0 ER
6 IP, 3 ER ( O ER thru 5)
4.1 IP, 8 ER (this is the game the Dodgers scored 21 lol)
7 IP, 1 ER ( 0 ER thru 5)
5.2 IP, 1 ER

Taillon last 6 starts:
6 IP, 1 ER (1 ER thru 5)
6 IP, 3 ER (3 ER thru 5)
9 IP, 2 ER (0 ER thru 5)
6.2 IP, 3 ER (3 ER thru 5)
7 IP, 2 ER (2 ER thru 5)
5.1 IP, 1 ER
 
KJ said:
Home/under early makes sense

Some will never play day unders at Yankees FIELD but g1 it makes sense to me
Click to expand...

I kinda fall in that group, I used to look for any reasons to get on Bronx daytime over but earlier this year one my pals “FUqer” (think he looks over here but not sure if he ever participates) did some his query’s for me and I was pretty shocked when he came back, forget the numbers but it was far from some great profitable bet. Sometimes perception can really get skewed on things cause i was shocked! Still bet the over that day and it hit too!! Lol

guess none that post means a whole lot, I was just so surprised by results his query came up with thought it was worth talking bout maybe.

Ultimately I still tend to look at overs in those spots and would have today with ya’ll im sure cause I’m stubborn, only reason I didn’t was cause just got home from work, lol.. I have gotten to point the numbers have to really agree where as in past couldn’t even guess how many lazy half ass capped over plays in daytime Bronx games I’ve made over the years, lol. Once those past results got shoved in my face decided I better start treating them like any other game and put the work in!! Lol
 
MoneyStacks said:
Chacin last 6 starts:
6 IP, 0 ER
7 IP, 0 ER
6 IP, 3 ER ( O ER thru 5)
4.1 IP, 8 ER (this is the game the Dodgers scored 21 lol)
7 IP, 1 ER ( 0 ER thru 5)
5.2 IP, 1 ER

Taillon last 6 starts:
6 IP, 1 ER (1 ER thru 5)
6 IP, 3 ER (3 ER thru 5)
9 IP, 2 ER (0 ER thru 5)
6.2 IP, 3 ER (3 ER thru 5)
7 IP, 2 ER (2 ER thru 5)
5.1 IP, 1 ER
Click to expand...

I know Taillon dominated with 10k last time against the brewers but some of those splits against some of the brewers scare the shit out of me. A few bad pitches and I think it could get ugly for Taillon. I might lay off.
 
Did both first half and game. Since the first half bet does not negate the under ump for the game
 
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