8/24 MLB Discussion

MoneyStacks said:
Cardinals @ Rockies u10.5

Pitchers faced each other 3 weeks ago. Cards won 3-2. https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SLN/SLN201808020.shtml

I think it’s a run too high. Thoughts?
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I think I have to respectfully disagree with you on this one boss. Don’t get me wrong this be a tough over to play and honestly I doubt I’ve bet a over on a Mikolas start this season! I’ll prob wait on ump and hope I get a good one for my purposes to give me the courage! Lol. Over ump or even fairly neutral guy and there some reasons I think we see a much different game than the meeting in stl. (If we draw a serious under ump I’d prob just have to pass).

Let’s start w Mikolas who as a cards fan of course I love, guy was by far the biggest/best free agent signing this offseason (not named Jd Martinez anyway) as he been nothing short of incredible. I don’t buy him as a big regression candidate cause while I respect and use the advanced metrics I think they incredibly flawed in there inability to measure incredibly important things, like you know the ability to actually pitch!! Mikolas clearly went to Japan and worked on his craft, not only coming back w good velo but also a almost Maddox like pinpoint control of all his pitches!

Last time out vs rox at home was pretty typical Mikolas vs a tough rox lineup he posted, 7 inn 7 hits, 2walks, 2 runs (1 earned), the guy a machine collecting 18 QS in his 25 chances! Maybe even more impressive is even when it hasn’t been a qs, only has 5 starts that didn’t last 6+ Inn, not 1 start this season allowing more than 4 runs!! The guy has been one of most surprising out of nowhere pickups in a long time! I know what you thinking, none of this doing anything but supporting your under lean, lol. Could be I just feel obligated to say good things bout Mikolas!

All that said I think there some cause for concern in this one. He has only pitched at coors once and it was back before his move to japan, it was a ugly 1 inning where he got rocked for 4 runs. Obviously I’m not focusing on that one inning that was a lifetime ago but I think it needs to be mentioned and here is why. Mikolas has a better fastball than ppl think pumping it in consistently right around 95 but his real success stems from his ability to throw and locate 4 good pitches in any count, he throws the fb, sinker, curve, and slider all very close to 25% of the time. Normally this a good thing as we see by the marvelous numbers, however we all know coors atmosphere can play havoc with guys off speed/breaking pitches causing them to saucer and hang up more than getting that sharp bite/movement the pitcher is used to getting,

Those 9 baserunners rox stranded vs Mikolas in stl last week will be much more likely to make it all way around the bases in this spot imo. I really think he between a rox and a hard place (clever huh? lol), either throw those breaking pitchers and risk them not breaking and getting tagged or simply try to control this game w pinpoint control with his heater/sinker, while I think he could do that to a extent I expect he has to really work to make it into the 5th and I just think we gonna see one of his worst outings here where he will have done well to go 5-6 and hold rox to 4 runs. I actually think it could be worse just have to give him benefit of doubt to grind his way thru in a game I think the offense will have his back.

(Side note with cards pitching, while I think the young studs we brought up have turned this pen into one of the better units in the league I think we should remember this will be most these kids 1st exposure to the Rocky Mountain elevation and thin air so good chance at least one of them struggle imo)

On to the reason I don’t want to play rox and am far more interested in this total. Senzatela might have the better approach at coors leaning very heavily on his fastball but that means cards getting second crack at a guy that throws right around 70% heaters. I look at this kids pitch selection, his very hard hit rate against and I think he been living a bit of a charmed life with that insanely low .52 hr per 9 as he only allowing 5.6% of fly balls to leave the yard despite a 37% hard hit percentage which a good 8 points up from last season when he allowed 1.2 hr per 9 on a 15.7% hr/fb rate. So we get a kid who is allowing way less hr’s Despite more fly balls and more of those balls hit hard. Enter the cards offense who been hitting bombs for the last 3 nights at Chavez ravine which we all know a tough place to make ball fly at night! I’d be incredibly surprised If senzatela didn’t have similar struggles as Mikolas . Feel like both pitchers gonna be done after 5 and game be 4-4 at that point.

Ozuna going on the dl possibly hurts the over in the sense that cards didn’t do this wed but certainly have the capability to put one hell of a athletic outfield to cover ground at spacious coors. Obviously bader be in center, I would think O’Neal goes to left in this one which despite the limited mlb abs he actually provides a better sluggin bat than Ozuna who hasn’t hit with any kind of consistent power, assuming they leave Martinez in right for the bat, and we should see the return of big country Matt Adams playing 1st and hitting in that cleanup spot (that what I think should happen and then move carp bacn
k over to 3rd, less defense but significantly more infield power!) This lineup is gonna have the ability to sit back on that senzatela fastball and send it for a ride imo.

Maybe paulsy can give us a update on rox pen? Last I saw them in stl they had some holes outside their main guys, those guys got the day off thu but they did pitch tues and wed against pads so one has to assume while they avalable they would prefer not having to use them all in game 1. Oberg and especially Ottavina numbers impossible to deny, but that 3rd guy I’m speaking of for rox is Oh, make no mistake oh has looked good but I know one thing about him that hasn’t changed, lefties crush him w a ops over .900. Cards don’t have a lot of lefties so as much as I’d like to see Adams start they could save him on bench for when oh comes into a tight spot!!
 
Sorry if that was too much rambling or didn’t make sense in spots to anyone. Took me bout 2 hours to write it as I kept falling asleep and having to try and tie back together while erasing gibberish I wrote.lol.. ..

here’s the cliff notes.

Mikolas stuff not gonna play in the altitude imo. Senzatela throws 70% fastballs and his hr/fb rate is bound to be on the rise considering he 8% lower than last year despite more hard hit fly balls this season!

I think both starters be gone by end of 5th, think both teams will have 4-5 runs at that point. Like Mikolas Not many of cards young pen w coors experience, rox pen simply suspect imo. Return of Adams to cards and Holliday to rox helps ignite offenses.. over 10.5 -115 (I’d prefer to sell to 11 at plus money but afraid if I wait I might not get back to or line will have already risen). If I like the ump I will prob sell up to o12 for fat plus money later.
 
TRoe15 said:
Brewers claimed Harvey on waivers, could potentially work out a trade before the game and Harvey gets scratched. That'd probably turn it into a bullpen game for the Reds, no?
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Just saw this too.. 12.5 though what the hell.
 
Harvey pitched in Wrigley not too long ago to basically the same line up. He went 5 and gave up 2, walked 1. Not sure I understand the need for such an absurd total as the Reds bats aren't showing any signs of life either. Harvey has never given up a home run at Wrigley in 4 starts in 23 innings.

Harvey been with Vanover for 3 starts across 15 innings, with a 7.20/1.80 going 0-2.
 
Don't think I'm going to force a play on this one. Will just sit back, relax and enjoy whatever happens.
 
Harvey about 7.20 with ump. No clue Cub pitcher. Cobb back on 5 anything goes. Lean Colorado general theory Friday monsters. No action till we see umps.
Tend to think there are no auto plays with Gio or Washington.
Expect to be on Cleveland
Later
 
peelpub94 said:
Saw this too.. total down to 11.5 now too...
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Besides wishing I got a slighly better number I still see little difference, if game finishes on 12 I would just shrug at the hilarity of it. It really seems like a big majority is on under and that is the movement and it is worth fading besides weather and fundamentals
 
What I know

Wind out at Wrigley, 13 mph to center, Vanover who I now trend over but not significantly

Mooch in Minny is a flat under ump
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
Besides wishing I got a slighly better number I still see little difference, if game finishes on 12 I would just shrug at the hilarity of it. It really seems like a big majority is on under and that is the movement and it is worth fading besides weather and fundamentals
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Majority on the Under??
 
I don’t see Senzatela pitching past the 5th or 6th inning and I also see him giving up at least 4 runs and our middle relief has been terrible. We’ve done well when the pen is only used for the 8th and 9th. Shaw is just a liability at this point, Rusin our long reliever is struggling to regain his form, so I see the pen giving up some runs, hopefully enough to get the over.
 
This game will be much different then when it was played at Busch. Also, I’m getting 10.5 for the over, not 12
 
Paulsy01 said:
I don’t see Senzatela pitching past the 5th or 6th inning and I also see him giving up at least 4 runs and our middle relief has been terrible. We’ve done well when the pen is only used for the 8th and 9th. Shaw is just a liability at this point, Rusin our long reliever is struggling to regain his form, so I see the pen giving up some runs, hopefully enough to get the over.
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Im glad we seeing it pretty similar bud, as much as I’ve become a huge Mikolas fan it makes a ton of sense that he won’t have his a game in this park where his off speed offerings just won’t be as sharp.. even now that I got a little crush on our pen I’m pretty sure this be most those kids 1st visit here so it seems almost inevitable at least one of them struggle.
 
FWIW I just put down 2 future bets on the Cubs for the NLCS and WS. This team looks to have the magic again and truly don't see anyone getting in their way in the NL. Cardinals believe it or not I fear the most.
 
peelpub94 said:
FWIW I just put down 2 future bets on the Cubs for the NLCS and WS. This team looks to have the magic again and truly don't see anyone getting in their way in the NL. Cardinals believe it or not I fear the most.
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The NL has completely opened up for them. However, I don’t particularly feel confident about their chances in the WS as things are right now, but that certainly could change in a hurry.
 
I don’t blame you. I think the entire NL is a joke honestly. Cubs scare me the most but I think the long odds on the Rox and Cards right now have the most value. Hamels and Murphy deals have given me a lot of pause but I still feel if the cards/rox get in they aren’t all that much worse than a coin flip in a series with the cubs which I know vegas disagrees with.
 
MoneyStacks said:
Cardinals @ Rockies u10.5

Pitchers faced each other 3 weeks ago. Cards won 3-2. https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SLN/SLN201808020.shtml

I think it’s a run too high. Thoughts?
Click to expand...

Recent results are terrible to rely on alone imo. For instance Steven Wright 7 ip 1 er against seattle then 6 days later gave up 10 runs, Lance McCullers shut out Cleveland on May 20 six days later gave up seven runs. Wade LeBlanc shut out Boston May 20 six days later gave up six runs
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Recent results are terrible to rely on alone imo. For instance Steven Wright 7 ip 1 er against seattle then 6 days later gave up 10 runs, Lance McCullers shut out Cleveland on May 20 six days later gave up seven runs. Wade LeBlanc shut out Boston May 20 six days later gave up six runs
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Yeah. I’m actually opposite. I like the fact that they just saw the pitchers recently for an over.
 
And honestly I think Houston at near or over +500 is a joke when they get all their pieces back together shortly. That is by far my largest future that I keep adding to. Just hoping to get one of my longshots from the NL their (rox/cards) to face them to make it stress’ish free.
 
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