4/13

[E.T.G.]

3-1 +1.88...Sorry bout format, posting from some makeshift website at work. I have a strong lean to ChiSox/Detroit UNDER 5 -105 (1st 5 innings). I show a cold day (46 feels like 35) and some 15mph wind blowing in from LF kind of towards right. Anyhow, cold air should keep the ball in the park today. Bottom line is that I don't trust this game if it gets to the bullpens. Floyd has track record versus Detroit and Miner has some pretty good numbers vs. ChiSox. Don't know ump, not a play yet, will update this thread if I get involved otherwise, thoughts on some other games coming in a bit

 

[E.T.G.]

Thats what I get for pussy-footing around, line dropped to O/U 4.5 and i'm no longer interested in that. hopefully goes back up, doubtful.

 

[aplous]

GL ETG.....thanks for the winners the last few days.

Im on the Twins and Slowey for my only play of the day so far.

 

[E.T.G.]

GL ETG.....thanks for the winners the last few days.

Im on the Twins and Slowey for my only play of the day so far.

No prob bro, long season hopefully there are plenty more. Thats a nice side for sure, interesting game there, still looking at it. Litsch did hit them with a CG Shutout last yr, its a game I've been tossing back and forth.

 

[hile75]

Etg, just play the total for the game, its going under

 

[wreck]

the greek still has 5 runs but it's juiced to -135

<table border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="620"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#003366"><td valign="top" width="120">4/13/2009 12:00 PM</td> <td valign="top" width="500">Total runs scored in the first 4½ innings of game Game must go 4½ innings for action. Both starting pitchers must go for action. Max wager is $300.</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="620"> <tbody><tr> <td align="center" width="55">459</td> <td width="300">Over 5 runs </td> <td width="65"> +105 </td> <td width="200">
</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0" width="620"><tbody><tr><td align="center" width="55">460</td> <td width="300">Under 5 runs </td> <td width="65"> -135 </td> <td width="200">
</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[E.T.G.]

Rockies +110 (1/1.1): Line dropping quick and my first dog of the yr...Just played this game. Rockies have hit LHP so far this yr. SportsNut mentioned in the discussion thread that the Brewer-Cub game last night ended late and Marmol shouldn't be available. Bradley/Soto are out and Jiminez takes the mound, as long as he doesn't kill himself with walks, he is going to keep the Rockies in the game. Jiminez had 1 start against CHC last yr and it was in Chitown where he went 5ip-7h-3er-3bb-5k. Jiminez had a stellar September and looks to have started the yr off right. Jiminez in 2008 had 26 starts with 3er or less, again, this 24yr old has great stuff its just his walks that sometimes get him into trouble. Given the late ending last night and early start today, a team who has hit LHP this yr, has won 2 games on the road, the better SP, some limited success by Rockie hitters vs. Lilly, I feel comfortable making this a play.

 

[buckeyeburritos]

agree with that under if you play it.

gl GREEN

 

[E.T.G.]

Thanks guys. Looking at the following play later....Orioles +110 (first 5 innings). Strictly a play against Padilla who has a history of struggles against Orioles and he doesn't pitch well at home. Also, another angle I am targeting here is that with this being the first time any Texas hitter sees Baltimore Pitcher Uehara, it might take them until their 2nd turn through to get anything going against him and by that time, Orioles should have mounted enough runs off padilla to take this 5inning bet. I also want no part of Baltimores bullpen involved in a game I bet. Padilla was 3-5 w/ 4.80era at home last yr in 12 games..Teams hit .280 off him. Padilla has been smacked around by Markakis, Roberts, Mora has decent success at .267, Huff is .500 in 6ab and these are the guys that make the Orioles go.

 

[E.T.G.]

Home from work, Jimenez did not have it today, no excuse for walking 6 guys, including the pitcher. Not to mention that Lilly is no-hitting them through 6. Moving On.


Orioles +110 (1ST 5) 1/1.1

As I mentioned in an earlier post, the thinking behind this play is as follows. Rangers have not seen Uehara yet, from what I watched of him against the Yankees, he is not an over powering pitcher (91mph) but he also does not give away anything free, he walks litterally, no one. He mixes in a change up pretty good as well and relies on stellar location. I think at least the first time through the order, he will be able to keep rangers hitters off balance as they try to decipher what he is doing on the mound. Now, with the Orioles, they've had success against Padilla, below are how Padilla did against the Orioles in 2008:

2.2ip-9h-8er-2bb in a 10-4 loss in Baltimore
4ip-8h-6er-3bb-4k in a 9-0 loss in Baltimore

Huff: .500 in 6ab
Markakis: .667 in 9ab
Mora: .267 in 15ab
Roberts: .583 in 12ab
Zaun: .313 in 16ab

Padilla at home in 2008 was 3-5 w/ 4.80era in 12 games.

My thought process with this play is that the Orioles should be up 3-1 or better by the 5th inning and I will be able to get out of this game without having to rely on the Orioles Bullpen holding off a powerful lineup for 3-4 innings. The one downside I've found from doing some research on Uehara is that in the past he has been a victim of the long ball and thats not good in that sandbox of a park Texas plays in, especially with the bats they have in that lineup. This is the first road game for the Orioles which I am not to fond of either and they've hit LHP better than RHP on the year and Padilla is a RHP. Overall, going with the Uehara keeping them guessing for the first couple innings while Orioles get to Padilla early.

Maybe 1 more game coming in a bit.

 

[reNew Orleans]

gl today ETG. i can see balt/tex goin over. im on the rockies too, hopefully they come back.

 

[nawlins51]

GL bro.Like those O's myself but thats not saying much.

 

[aplous]

Do they not have first 5 bets at the Greek?

They have first 4.5, but Balty is like -165 (b/c theyd bat 5 times to home teams 4).

 

[E.T.G.]

Lean to Brewers-1 (-102):

Now, with this play, originally looking at the line here, I was a little surprised to see it priced how it was and than not moving with Volquez surprised me some more. Reds are not hitting the ball, they have 3 games with 2runs or less and in the 2 games they have scored, Votto has 3 and 4 rbi games. I feel that you can rely on Gallardo more than Volquez though because Gallardo does not give out free passes, he plays on a better team, and he is at home where he had success in the past. Volquez has a way of putting men on base with walks and he is a strike out pitcher so it wouldn't surprise me in the least if he had a stat line like:

5ip-4bb-1er-9k

His pitch count can get very high if his control is off cutting off his ability to work deep in a game. With that said, he was very very good away from home last yr.

In his 2 starts @ Milw, he did alright. One very good start, one not so good start.

7ip-6h-2r-1er-1hr-2bb-10k
5.2ip-5h-4er--2hr-3bb-10k

So again, the strikeouts are there but his control can be off. Volquez had 15 starts with at least 3 walks issued last yr.

Gallardo had a short season last yr but in 2007 he was 5-2 w/ 2.77era in 8 games at home holding batters to a .211 average. He worked at least 6ip in 12 of his 17 starts.

In his 2 starts in 2007 against the Reds, Gallardo went:

1-0 w/ 1.32era in 13.2ip-10h-2er-6bb-6k

I can not picture myself laying the -150 against Volquez though because he has the ability to be so dominant but I wouldn't be mad at myself for giving the Brewers-1 a try at even money, if they stay patient at the plate and make Volquez work, they can get him out of this game in 5innings and make the reds bullpen fend for the rest of the game.

I think Gallardo has a stat line like 6.2ip-1er-2bb-6k with a 3-1 lead heading into the 7th...I'm just not comfortable with totals so thats why I'm not running out to bet the under in this game

 

[Jumpsinn]

Where did those bats come from in the DET. White Sox game...holy crap...Oh well, GL with the rest of the day boys...

 

[E.T.G.]

Where did those bats come from in the DET. White Sox game...holy crap...Oh well, GL with the rest of the day boys...

no idea, just glad the line dropped so I wasn't on it.

 

[E.T.G.]

Do they not have first 5 bets at the Greek?

They have first 4.5, but Balty is like -165 (b/c theyd bat 5 times to home teams 4).

yuck. Aplous, I don't use thegreek for baseball, if you got money there, might want to ask them about moving it to BetJam for you since they own BJ.

I have a local who uses Online as the book so that is where I am able to get the 1st 5inning bets at.