2dB bowl ramblings, props, and plays

2daBank

2daBank

Voice of Reason
Last few years have posted pretty sick record being somewhat selective w props and few sides here and there. Lot of the misses come in games where we have guys sitting and it not for lack of game script being wrong it just ends up being a different player getting the work in a game the season long starters sit, this is def one the hardest parts but hopefully can convince myself to pass on few more of those! There one I been on for a few days already I love 2marro, I believe I got a slightly better number as he has went up a few yards but don’t think it matters, I’d still play where he currently sits and will post the number out there now.

Play #1

Jaydon Ott ov 106.5 rush yards..

Believe im damn near perfect playin Ott rush totals this year, somewhere in the 5-0 or 6–1 type range anyways. Cal has went to a much higher tempo offense this year which had allowed Ott to get plenty of Carries. Lot of backs have been going well over 100+ on the red raiders d. Maybe more importantly texas tech d ranks outside the top 100 allowing 3rd down conversions over 42% the time so they will be having to stop Ott getting to pound at them multiple times per drive. This has another one his 150+ written all over it. I actually like Cal in this game so game script could vs very favorable although it shouldn’t matter much long as texas tech doesn’t jump out to some crazy lead Ott gonna get more than enough Carries and should smash this number.
 
What's up, bank? Finalizing bowl pools, one of the best times of the year, but tough having to take positions so far out in the portal era. Few thoughts:
- seeing big motivational/participation advantages with Wyoming, SJSU, Ok State, NMSU, Noles, UTSA, Rutgers, NC State, Northwestern
- pretty much have to take UCLA given line move but wtf wants to back Chip Kelly in an exhibition, think the under is the best play in that game. like NMSU/Fresno over, WKU/ODU under, UTSA/Marshall over, USF/Cuse over in early bowls
- not much feel for Cal/TT so good to hear your thoughts - gonna ride with you on Cal there. also little feel for Louisville/USC, Kansas/UNLV (should be great watch though), VT/Tulane
 
BiffTFinancial said:
What's up, bank? Finalizing bowl pools, one of the best times of the year, but tough having to take positions so far out in the portal era. Few thoughts:
- seeing big motivational/participation advantages with Wyoming, SJSU, Ok State, NMSU, Noles, UTSA, Rutgers, NC State, Northwestern
- pretty much have to take UCLA given line move but wtf wants to back Chip Kelly in an exhibition, think the under is the best play in that game. like NMSU/Fresno over, WKU/ODU under, UTSA/Marshall over, USF/Cuse over in early bowls
- not much feel for Cal/TT so good to hear your thoughts - gonna ride with you on Cal there. also little feel for Louisville/USC, Kansas/UNLV (should be great watch though), VT/Tulane
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Thanks for chiming in brotha. It’s so hard to do the pools these days where ya gotta have all the picks in today for games that we have no damn idea who be playing, caring, showing up and with who dressed 2/3 weeks from now! I havnt even filled out a confidence pool yet, was hoping to do at least 1 for money plus assuming ctg still has a free one? (Havnt checked, lol), they really feel like throwing darts these days!

Honestly I havnt capped much of any, I really just wait till day before these days! I’d think mixzou has a monster motivational edge in their New Years 6 game, don’t think Ohio st cares much, they have guys sitting im sure, I assume they have another qb as respectable as McCord? Obviously the line has totally reflected all those things but feels like a hugely meaningful game for mizzou, I think I would put tigers fairly high up a confidence board.

I really don’t have any thoughts on the ones you posted yet, I’m sure you know which of them have the motivational edges but I will say I’ve had some nice plays were motivational edges move lines along w few guys sitting and going against has served me well, just depends if the other team has some younger talented depth looking to make a name but between some my time restraints and just not worrying bout these till practically day of I don’t have anything intelligent to add on many of those yet!! (Intelligent might be a overstatement at any point, lol).

I have started looking some at the boise game, why would you think line suggest ucla? Personally I much prefer playing dogs in these early bowl games, I like fading the moves, like for me ucla opening -1.5 and now -6 makes this just blindly boise or nothing for me! What has inspired that move? Is it solely money or someone plsying or not? I know I heard boise qb not playing but don’t think I care bout that. Their run game is what makes that team go. Who starting at qb for ucla today? I feel like chip got held hostage by that Uber talented freshman he basically had to play or he would transfer, man sone these things not great! Lol, a coach like chip Kelly being forced to start a freshman qb who clearly wasn’t ready in fear he would transfer is kinda sad! I know he finally benched him down stretch but I would assume he either playing today or taking his ball and going to another school!!! All I know bout boise they been running the shit out of ball since the coaching change, players love the intern coach they already demanded he get hired as full time going forward: think we getting a lot of points for a boise team I’ve always liked playing in these games.

Sorry I don’t have better answers on the others, as we get closer to those games all come back and address them, I just have no clue at the moment! lol
 
Jfc. Ucla up to -6.5 now. It’s getting to the point I gotta wonder if we getting late opt outs for boise? Doesn’t seem likely to me, is money really just pushing bruins this high? I have time I’m gonna go back home and look closer at that after I get done betting my ncaa hood and nfl props! Something don’t make sense to me there, if it simply a huge push of ucla money I can’t imagine not loving boise! Lol
 
So I guess maybe the line being pushed up is maybe ppl reacting to boise having to start their 3rd qb a freshman who hasn’t got much time. Sucks greene transferred but such is life, I gotta think maybe he transferred cause boise likes this kid? He should have ample chances to succeed cause bruins will have to dedicate a lot to stopping the boise run game which is fantastic. Bruins defensive numbers against the run are fantastic but when you look closer they faced a lot of sub par rushing teams, good running teams were able to have success and I think boise will have enough, I also think boise will have this qb ready and lot of easy throws cause the run game. Of boise 2 outstanding backs Jeanty capable of making big things happen catching the ball out the backfield, boise will use both backs at same time and send jeanty on some wheel routes showing run action, not to mention other than the te a young qb best friend a running back he can check down to. I don’t like the rush prop numbers for boise backs, I think one will prob hit but they strong numbers so imo the way to go is this:

Jeanty ov 23.5 rec yards

Boise st +6.5 (not betting yet, obviously would love to get a +7!). And a sprinkle on a boise ml/cal ml parlay pays +659!
 
Man, I hate even looking at these bowls. I wake up, start my coffee, and start browsing before I even have a cup in front of me so ya know I’m not trying to actually start opening pages, just looking to see which ones jump out that h want to dig in on but all I get is stupid shit where my 1st thought is like “damn, I love that”, immediately followed by “fuck, who sitting” so I just click on line move since that usually a pretty good indicator and sure enough the line had moved bunch of points and flipped one team from fav to dog so now I basically know the qb out at the very least., lol

At that point I dunno what’s the point? Unless I at the very least have some kind of access to the practices or ability to see notes on who will be playing and then dig into the kind of recruit he was on top of needing to know what he looking like. Without any of that is it any different than just flipping a coin? How the fuck can I find a edge if I dunno a damn thing bout who playing? I don’t bet xfl either
 
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On the bright side I freaking love that Gtech vs ucf matchup and sounds to me like most the key transfers for both teams are sone the better defensive players!!
 
So marshall who offense wasn’t exactly lighting the world on fire has a qb transferring, is the next guy really any worse? Pretty sure he related to former nfl player chad Pennington but since he has hardly played we not only don’t get any props on him but these pussies won’t even give us any of Marshall wr’s? Wtf Is that bout? I’d bet them this kid starting for Marshall isn’t any worse than the one trying to move to a power 5 team! I’d say give me the points w Marshall Cept I dunno bout their rb Ali either? Although I do see props up for him.

Everything kinda telling me this stays within the number, I think this being Frank Harris last game after 10 years of college makes me like him to go out with a strong performance but for utsa to throw enough think we need Marshall to stay close. Assuming Marshall can keep it competitive feel like DK passing yards on Harris a tad light. Lean Harris ov 237.5 passing and McCuin ov 40.5 rec. the rec prop might be stronger, think they might be a bit high on Harris top target who should draw more attention. Harris numbers will come down to 1 of 2 things, either Marshall able to score some points w the Freshman qb or Marshall red zone d has been one the better in the country holding teams out the endzone, that could keep Harris throwing and putting up yards between the 20s. We just can’t have one these Marshall games where they struggle to score double digits and utsa has no real incentive to be throwing in the 4th.
 
I wrote way more about tonight’s game in @Br@ssknux thread, wasn’t real inspired when I started in here, lol. So go there and read if ya want. In short im leaning strongly to a Harris alt passing total and the wr mentioned above. Still annoyed we can’t get any numbers in the Marshall passing game! I understand them not wanting to line Pennington but I think it incredibly weak they can’t post a few wrs numbers?? Let’s be real the qb change is most likely fairly insignificant on the wr performance unless they think Pennington is sneakily way better or way worse than the kid transferring. My assumption would be it not a massive gap either way, kinda think Pennington might be more productive in the red zone as the other kid had Marshall as one the worst red zone offenses, the Pennington name alone makes me think if:when he gets chances in scoring range he will make things happen, it don’t hurt that utsa has one the worst red zone defenses in the country also!!
 
Way more discussion on the potential props in @Br@ssknux thread!! He is giving me some back and forth which really helps me get my thoughts in order and all you Mfers seem to be ignoring me in here!! Lol
 
I think Harris might be worth a small alt play. I don’t see how the books get his number close to right? In 8 conf games he threw for less than 200 4x, in 3 of them he threw for way over 300!! Only one game did he throw for anywhere close to the posted 237.5 and that was still 260!!

Another idea I kind of like here is utsa wr McCuin. I think they came a bit high with top wr Cephus who has had results very much reflective of Harris up and down yardage. On the other hand the games McCuin didn’t clear todays total he was consistently right below the number. Marshall d should absolutely have more focus on Cephus after the extended time to prepare for this game.
 
2daBank said:
Way more discussion on the potential props in @Br@ssknux thread!! He is giving me some back and forth which really helps me get my thoughts in order and all you Mfers seem to be ignoring me in here!! Lol
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Lol most people read every thread when there's a new post

That said, I can only see myself on UTSA tonight. Not sure if I put a smaller bet in just to have a baseline if they come out fast but the hope is to get them closer to a TD live. That only works if they don't come out and get up 14-0 really fast which I'm afraid they might do.
 
KJ said:
Lol most people read every thread when there's a new post

That said, I can only see myself on UTSA tonight. Not sure if I put a smaller bet in just to have a baseline if they come out fast but the hope is to get them closer to a TD live. That only works if they don't come out and get up 14-0 really fast which I'm afraid they might do.
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I expect utsa to outgain We Are by a significant amount but the number does worry me cause Marshall d has been very good bowing up in the red zone. Marshall offense hasn’t been very good punching in their chances either but I do wonder if Pennington combined with utsa very bad red zone d changes that. Of course I have no clue if Marshall can get to the red zone for that theory to play out, lol. This strictly of prop interest to me. Harris is all over the map with his passing totals, I’m really just trying to figure out if there a world he still throwing after half or they just running out the clock? Marshall holding them to fgs would certainly help encourage a lot of passing yards between the 20s imo, Or if Pennington can inspire We Are? I dunno if he had a different last name if I would give that any credence? Fact is it a total guessing game when the fucjing qb off a bad offense somehow is apparently fielding nil offers from power 5 schools! I have no clue if he better than Pennington or simply was the starter cause he a year ahead and maybe he transferring cause Pennington in line to take over?!?!
 
Is Harris now out? Line down to 8 and now I have no Harris props!! Wtf??? This his last game of his 20 year college career!!
 
Hopefully we can get to tonight’s kick without 12 kids deciding to transfer or sit out! This one looks like a prop cashing bonanza! Where the stops coming from in this game? Both defenses rank around 100th in the country on 3rd downs so the offenses shouldn’t have any problems keeping drives alive! Both teams near bottom the country in yards per rush and rush yarfs allowed per game! Ucf giving up 5 per and right bout 200 a game and not to be outdone Gtech allowed freaking 5.5 per carry and the worst in nation 228 per game! Harvey the only rushing prop they came with a super string number but if the game script plays out to the spread and ucf has a lead then 123 prob isn’t to much, maybe not quite as much “value”, I def like tech rb Jamal Hsyes to smash his number of 83,5, I’d say this alt prop city but they not being dummies here, they not giving out a bunch of plus money so might as well just stick with the regular numbers.

Neither team gets after the qb so I feel pretty good with both qb rush numbers. King’s passing total in the 180s is freaking stupid! Yes he failed to go over 200 his last 3, those were games against clemson and mmmmmmUga, let’s not mistake ucf pass d for either those teams! The one against cuse he didn’t have to throw much cause as I bed. Saying all year and wr saw yesterday cuse offense is so so bad! They will most def need king to throw here and he must def will throw for more than 183 yards! I almost spit up my coffee when I saw this number! Unless you think Gtech defense is gonna dominate and they can win just running the ball this number retarded! And if you have seen Gtech play d you know they not gonna win with defense and running herd! If king doesn’t throw for more than 200 I’ll run around the block naked! Matter a fact give me a little 250+ for +450 here!!

Im fine w plumee over 249.5 passing also, just not as fun w -110 on that, same w Harvy rushing, should cash but -110 on freaking over 123.5. Should hit but not much “value”

I think the value def lies with sith tech players but I think they all more than likely to cash.
 
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It's raining here this morning

Expect the unexpected!

Capping the Universe Meatballs style
 
King ov 188.5 pass yards (large)

King 250+. @ +450

Hayes ov 83.5 rush

Plumleee ov 58.5 rush

Plumlee 80+ rush @ +450


For right now these my favs but I could still end up on some more. Let’s just make sure we don’t get a bunch of last seconds opt outs
 
2daBank said:
King ov 188.5 pass yards (large)

King 250+. @ +450

Hayes ov 83.5 rush

Plumleee ov 58.5 rush

Plumlee 80+ rush @ +450


For right now these my favs but I could still end up on some more. Let’s just make sure we don’t get a bunch of last seconds opt outs
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Baker ov 70.5 rec
 
KJ said:
Wish I was in your shoes, UCF team total would be one of my biggest plays of bowl season
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I can’t get enough of these! Lol. This feels like last year when we get the rare game they would post numbers for a wku game! My only worry at all is both teams run the ball so well the clock moves fast. I still don’t think it matters tho cause I suspect it not gonna be many 4 yard runs, more like 10-15-20+ yard chunks! Cherry on top far as I can tell the only players opting out are the best defensive players for each team!!
 
2daBank said:
I can’t get enough of these! Lol. This feels like last year when we get the rare game they would post numbers for a wku game! My only worry at all is both teams run the ball so well the clock moves fast. I still don’t think it matters tho cause I suspect it not gonna be many 4 yard runs, more like 10-15-20+ yard chunks! Cherry on top far as I can tell the only players opting out are the best defensive players for each team!!
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I don't think GT offense does much at all
 
KJ said:
I don't think GT offense does much at all
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Totally disagree. King will light them up imo. Hayes will get his. I’m not even convinced uct wins quite honestly, but I don’t care! Lol : I don’t think they should be laying -5.
 
Why in the world do you think ucf d can stop tech? Who has ucf defense stopped other than a total garbage okie st team? Gtech offense is really good, king wasn’t a 4 star by accident, he just almost got ruined by that clown dinosaur Fisher at AM who hasn’t had a respectable offense since 2000!! I have no doubt Gtech hangs 30+. King will throw for 250+ and run for 50+, Hayes will run for around 100 and they will have close to 500 yards of offense,
 
I’d bet Gtech ml except for the fact they terrible at holding leads. These Mfers have let offenses I consider down right awful have monster 2nd halves against them but don’t be shocked at all if Gtech comes out and goes up 2-3 scores!!
 
I don’t get the ucf love at all. Yes they are gonna score but how can you trust them to lay points? I think they played the softest big12 schedule j ever seen in my life thanks to all the mediocre teams who moved into the conf! And they still gave to points to almost all of them. I don’t think ucf is very good, if you made me bet a side I’d take tech in a heartbeat.
 
2daBank said:
I don’t get the ucf love at all. Yes they are gonna score but how can you trust them to lay points? I think they played the softest big12 schedule j ever seen in my life thanks to all the mediocre teams who moved into the conf! And they still gave to points to almost all of them. I don’t think ucf is very good, if you made me bet a side I’d take tech in a heartbeat.
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Lol all this is gonna do is confuse me if we keep talking about this game

I have UCF at somewhere in the 38-40 pt range in my confidence pool I think

More a complete fade of GT and the dogshit ACC. Probably the most athletic team they will play this season.
 
And I'd bet their team total under as well if I could

Now gotta focus on things like soccer today so I don't out think myself!
 
KJ said:
Lol all this is gonna do is confuse me if we keep talking about this game

I have UCF at somewhere in the 38-40 pt range in my confidence pool I think

More a complete fade of GT and the dogshit ACC. Probably the most athletic team they will play this season.
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Wow. I would argue this be one the easiest defenses Gtech has faced this year. Ucf beat houston, a okie st team I thought wax awful, Cincy, nova, kent st, boise best win and that was before they figured things out and fired coach! They Gave up huge points to offenses w qb’s way less talented than king! I’m usually a acc defender, I knocked them a lot this year but Gtech faced at least 5 defenses vastly better than ufc. Had I done a confidence pool no way this been more than 10 and I dunno I woulda took ucf, only reason I’m not running to take the 5 points cause Gtech 2nd half d has been a nightmare and I suspect Gus will figure out ways to really exploit them in the 2nd Half. I might actually look at a Gtech wins 1st half ucf wins game kinda bet. If Gtech doesn’t score 30+ with 450 of offense I be shocked. Ucf could very well score 40+ but imo there no way this isn’t a close game. The big 12 wasn’t very good outside a couple teams either.
 
2daBank said:
Wow. I would argue this be one the easiest defenses Gtech has faced this year. Ucf beat houston, a okie st team I thought wax awful, Cincy, nova, kent st, boise best win and that was before they figured things out and fired coach! They Gave up huge points to offenses w qb’s way less talented than king! I’m usually a acc defender, I knocked them a lot this year but Gtech faced at least 5 defenses vastly better than ufc. Had I done a confidence pool no way this been more than 10 and I dunno I woulda took ucf, only reason I’m not running to take the 5 points cause Gtech 2nd half d has been a nightmare and I suspect Gus will figure out ways to really exploit them in the 2nd Half. I might actually look at a Gtech wins 1st half ucf wins game kinda bet. If Gtech doesn’t score 30+ with 450 of offense I be shocked. Ucf could very well score 40+ but imo there no way this isn’t a close game. The big 12 wasn’t very good outside a couple teams either.
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We're gonna disagree on this one, that's cool

I don't want to out think myself
 
KJ said:
We're gonna disagree on this one, that's cool

I don't want to out think myself
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At least one of us be happy. Not exactly sure what you bet but there probably a world we can totally disagree and still both make money on this one since you can’t do props!!
 
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2daBank said:
At least one of us be happy. Not exactly sure what you bet but there probably a world we can totally disagree and still both make money on this one since you can’t do props!!
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Let's just say I'm not betting a stagnant 5, no reason at that number. Nothing bet yet, kinda said my thoughts in some other thread. 80% on UCF and 94% on over for early numbers, no reason to jump into that fire. Opened at 61 and up to 67, no thank you. I do expect UCF to crack 50, their team total would be my favorite play but I'm not going near that total
 
Honestly I’d be thrilled if ucf jumped out to early lead cause I think that would all but make king passing props a lock and those important ti me. There just wernt many good throwing qb’s on the big12 schedule ufc faced. Outside Gabriel I can’t think of anyone else with kings ability to throw.
 
KJ said:
Let's just say I'm not betting a stagnant 5, no reason at that number. Nothing bet yet, kinda said my thoughts in some other thread. 80% on UCF and 94% on over for early numbers, no reason to jump into that fire. Opened at 61 and up to 67, no thank you. I do expect UCF to crack 50, their team total would be my favorite play but I'm not going near that total
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If it follows the script of lot tech games you outta have a chance to get a better number on ucf, tech was fast starters against most everyone, even the better teams they played they tended to jump out early on. 2nd halves were a nightmare for them. Even that awful wake qb lit them up in the 4th qrtr!!
 
I seriously don’t see the appeal of ucf. They havnt really beat anyone. I do think it tough to judge their season since Plumlee was hurt on and off a lot but just the yards they allowed and their inability to get off the field on 3rd down against some average at best qbs. And now their best corner opted out!! King is gonna put up numbers, I have no doubt. Of course I have little doubt ucf will score damn near every possession in the 2md half also
 
I feel great bout these props. I debated Plumlee passing also, lean that way but like the idea of playing his wrs and sticking w his rushing yards since Gtech run d is awful and the few qbs who have Plumlee kind of rush ability had monster games on them. I have no doubt ucf will hit a few big plays once tech commits too much stopping the run. I see no world where ucf can stop Gtech from throwing if they get behind.
 
2daBank said:
I feel great bout these props. I debated Plumlee passing also, lean that way but like the idea of playing his wrs and sticking w his rushing yards since Gtech run d is awful and the few qbs who have Plumlee kind of rush ability had monster games on them. I have no doubt ucf will hit a few big plays once tech commits too much stopping the run. I see no world where ucf can stop Gtech from throwing if they get behind.
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What do you think this the total points in this one? Its up to 67 now.
 
Stew1700 said:
What do you think this the total points in this one? Its up to 67 now.
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I mean I certainly couldn’t play over now but wouidnt be feeling great bout under either. They could for sure get into the 70s. Wouldn’t shock me, gonna be lot of running tho. Prob lot of chunk plays. I think we talking both teams in low to mid 30s . 33-31 type of game
 
Yeah I lean UCF but they aren’t very good. Defense is bad but better against the pass. GT should be able to run all over them. GT defense can’t stop the run either. Could be a big day for that Harvey kid.
 
Inspekdah said:
Yeah I lean UCF but they aren’t very good. Defense is bad but better against the pass. GT should be able to run all over them. GT defense can’t stop the run either. Could be a big day for that Harvey kid.
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Is ucf rrslly better against the pass or did they just play a bunch of teams who were better running than throwing? Not lot of good passers on that ucf schedule. They did do a fairly solid job vs Gabriel but I mean Sooners still scored 31. Outside Gabriel most the qbs ucf faced were better runners than throwers imo. King is very good at both. I actually think Plumlee could have the monster rushing day for ucf, I’m sure Harvey be good also but I think they have his number pretty close to right (I did play Harvey to score 2 tds! That will just come down to whether he or Plumlee gets them, lol). Neither these defenses are good at all vs the run, the talented running qbs tech faced gave them massive problems. Fact of the matter is I think both these offenses will mostly do whatever they want. Neither d can get off the field on 3rd downs. Neither has kept a good offense under 30. Gtech offense way better than pol seem
To think. There gonna be 800+ yards of offense here.
 
Game script is gonna be a big factor here. Which I don’t love cause for some reason Gtech has been fast starters all year then their d gets freaking roasted after halftime. Only reason I’m not real interested in Harvey rush prop, very high number and trust me there a very real chance ucf finds themselves playing from behind, don’t think that eliminates Harvey totally but to play that 120s over you want ucf to be in lead and running all 2nd half. Plumlee and his wrs could have monster 2nd halves if Gtech gets off to a good start. They have been roasted by all kinds of not that great passing games after halftime! Imo there a very real chance Hayes is the better running back early in this game and that makes me a tad nervous bout king. I rather ucf come out and get a few score lead! 188.5 so low tho, regardless how it goes I think king will go over rather easy. At some point ucf be leading and King will be throwing. I just don’t see a world where there not a ton of offense in this game.
 
2daBank said:
King ov 188.5 pass yards (large)

King 250+. @ +450

Hayes ov 83.5 rush

Plumleee ov 58.5 rush

Plumlee 80+ rush @ +450


For right now these my favs but I could still end up on some more. Let’s just make sure we don’t get a bunch of last seconds opt outs
Click to expand...

Whatever happens beating the close on all those
 
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