280

[mrpickem]

Huge card today, but damn it's tough to get with this 1030 am start time. I could imagine it would be impossible in PST. My biggest week in over 7 months last week at +15.21u and that makes 4 straight winning weeks. Still down on year, but making a run at respectability.

 

[mrpickem]

UFC 280: Early Prelims​

LINA LANSBERG VS KAROL ROSA ~ Women’s Bantamweight (135)

• Rosa Decision ...Lansberg's in for a long night of Rosa’s inexhaustible, rapid combinations. With Rosa's solid chin, it would take a huge error in TDD for her to have much chance of losing the card opener. Lina's now 40 and I can't imagine her pace lasting, the inevitable 3-rounder.

MUHAMMAD MOKAEV(7-0) VS MALCOLM GORDON(14-5) ~ Flyweight (125)

• Mokaev Sub ...Gordon is like a glass cannon without fodder...henceforth he has adopted a crafty grappling game – but chasing it falls into Mokaev’s preferred fight. Mokaev has been erratic on his feet over his two fights in the UFC, but he shouldn’t face much adversity when shooting against Gordon. This probably ends early.

ARMEN PETROSYAN(6-2) VS AJ DOBSON(6-1) ~ Middleweight (185)

• Petrosyan ITD ...Dobson’s game provides frightening violence that can be refined, but his learning should still be at a regional level...rather than with UFC killers. Petrosyan may be mostly a one-trick kickboxer, but he has shown the ability to work through adversity and stick with his preferred game plan. Eventually, he may well find the combo to put AJ out.

 

[mrpickem]

First 3...

• 3/2.00 KAROL ROSA DEC/TECH DEC -150
• 3/1.09 MUHAMMAD MOKAEV KO,TKO,DQ,SUB -275
• 2/2.20 MUHAMMAD MOKAEV IN ROUND 1 +110
• 2/1.64 MOKAEV vs MOKAEV u1½ -122
• 3/3.00 ARMEN PETROSYAN KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +100

 

[mrpickem]

UFC 280: ESPN Prelims​

ABUBAKAR NURMAGOMEDOV(16-3-1) VS GADZHI OMARGADZHIEV(13-1) ~ Welterweight (170)

• Omargadzhiev ...Khabib’s cousin, Abubakar, is best known for disappointing his bloodline after falling into a David Zawada triangle choke. Abubakar has shown improved striking against Jared Gooden, but he will struggle to stay upright today. Omargadzhiev is a massive physical specimen, not without technical flaws, but should be able to out-muscle Nurmagomedov early on.

VOLKAN OEZDEMIR VS NIKITA KRYLOV ~ Light Heavyweight (205)

• Oezdemir ...Krylov may be the easier pick as a busy kickboxer who is deadset on controlling opponents on the mat. Aside from the Daniel Cormier fight, Oezdemir has regularly proven to be a tricky customer to take down, such as against Magomed Ankalaev and Aleksandar Rakic. Oezdemir’s volume striking and utilization of angles should give him an edge on the feet as well.

MAKHMUD MURADOV VS CAIO BORRALHO(12-1) ~ Middleweight (185)

• Borralho Decision ...Borralho is in top form but Muradov has the speed and pop that could catch get an early KO. Borralho lacks the defense to stay safe during the opening round, but his chin may just carry the load. As seen against Meerschaert, Muradov crumbles under sustained pressure and Borralho will eventually find the takedown(s).

BELAL MUHAMMAD(21-3) VS SEAN BRADY(15-0) ~ Welterweight (170)

• Muhammad Decision ...Brady is a highly dangerous grappler but there's suspicion that he has been pushed too early in his career. A phenomenal athlete, Brady will find himself at a technical disadvantage vs Belal. I do expect to see Brady having some success early with a strong pace. Likely won’t be enough to beat a far more experienced foe – especially considering Belal’s 91% TDD. To win Brady will need a top position to work his BJJ for the sub, but more likely Belal will control where the fight goes and he will have a decent advantage standing.

 

[mrpickem]

Doggy time

[2-3 -3.91u]

• 3/3.57 GADZHI OMARGADZHIEV +119
• 2.42/4 VOLKAN OEZDEMIR +165

 

[mrpickem]

[2-5 -9.33u]

• 3/1.55 MURADOV vs BORRALHO o1½ -194
• 3/1.39 CAIO BORRALHO -216
• 4/2.65 SEAN BRADY -151
• 2/6.00 SEAN BRADY KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +300

Flipping to Brady to get the sub...more of a hunch than anything.

 

[mrpickem]

UFC 280: Main Card​

Katlyn Chookagian(18-4) vs Manon Fiorot(9-1) ~ Women’s Flyweight (125)
Chookagian ...Chookagian is an accurate striker who generally out-works opponents without taking many risks. Fiorot may be a tricky southpaw on the feet owing to her size, it’s difficult to write off Chookagian’s ability to gauge round-winning output. Manon needs to impose her strength in the clinch, but she'll find it difficult to control her more experienced opponent.

Beneil Dariush(21-4-1) vs Mateusz Gamrot(21-1) ~ Lightweight (155)
Dariush ...Gamrot will have no time to settle into the fight vs an extremely aggressive Dariush, but his exceptional chin should be able to keep him afloat. Gamrot has proved almost impossible to be held down over his career but Dariush handled Diego Ferreira with surprising ease. This is an exceptionally balanced match-up, while Gamrot’s freakish gas tank and endless takedowns may lend an edge on the scorecards, but I will side with Dariush who has seen tougher comp and may have an extra trick ot two.
Petr Yan(16-3) vs Sean O’Malley(15-1) ~ Bantamweight (135)
Yan KO ...Not to harp on about O’Malley’s extended lead leg, but it is a glaring weakness that Yan will be all over. Even forgoing the leg kick, Yan’s pressure will surely find him in the pocket and piecing up O’Malley. Sean may be a fast, accurate starter who can hit the button from the opening bell, but he still lacks the power to keep Yan tentative. Yan can always opt for a safer grappling route and brutalize Sugga on the mat, but I think he wants to get it done with strikes.

https://imgur.com/kZUrhvH

 

[Vapster]

Good Luck And Great Stuff As Always @mrpickem

 

[mrpickem]

Now shit's gonna get real!

 

[mrpickem]

Wow, that was a great fight, Belal's TDD is amazing and he may have the best chin in the game.

[4-7 -12.39u]

• 2.09/4 KATLYN CHOOKAGIAN +191
• 3.08/6 BENEIL DARIUSH +195

Remember the name...

​

 

[mrpickem]

How Beneil closed +200 is beyond me...

[5-8 -8.48u]

• 5/1.77 PETR YAN -283
• 2/4.50 PETR YAN KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +225
• 1.17/2 YAN / O'MALLEY u2½ +171

 

[mrpickem]

UFC 280 - Top of the Card​

Main Event - Charles Oliveira(33-8) vs Islam Makhachev(22-1) ~ UFC Vacant Lightweight(155) Championship

• Oliveira ITD ...A lot has been said about Makhachev’s chin in the build-up. After all, the Dagestani was finished in the first round by the experienced yet limited, Adriano Martins. Under the duress of Oliveira’s outrageous athleticism and high-risk striking, Makhachev’s simplistic defense may struggle to adapt over subsequent layers. It just feels as though there won’t be much time for striking during this championship bout, however. Islam has proven himself a shrewd game planner over his career, leaving no doubts that he will be hell-bent on taking the fight to the ground. A ludicrous wrestler with an arsenal of takedowns, in addition to Oliveira willingly embracing a grappling war on the mat, will offer Makhachev the opportunity to implement his top game. Oliveira is a dynamic submission artist, but Makhachev very rarely makes mistakes on the ground. Considering Makhachev’s exceptional gas tank, it saddens me to foresee Oliveira fading physically and mentally by the championship rounds...but I do think Charles can still get it done earlier. Tough call but based on the odds, I will go with Olivera.

Co-Main Event - Aljamain Sterling(21-3) vs T.J. Dillashaw(17-4) ~ UFC Bantamweight(135) Championship

• Dillashaw Decision ...Sterling surprised most with a well-earned split decision in the Yan rematch. Similar grappling control will be very difficult to replicate vs TJ. Of note is the fact that Dillashaw looked to have lost a step against Sandhagen. It’s worth considering to what extent the athletic dropoff will affect the former champ’s ability to exert pressure. Even so, it feels like a stylistic match-up that Dillashaw can comfortably exploit – so long as Sterling doesn't latch onto his back early.

 

[KJ]

Thought it was on ESPN+

They did a PPV against college football? :rofl: :rofl:

 

[mrpickem]

WOW :shocked: one of the worse decisions in MMA history

[5-11 -16.65u]

• 2.70/4 TJ DILLASHAW +148
• 1.25/2 STERLING/ DILLASHAW u4½ +160

 

[mrpickem]

[6-12 -17.35u]

• 5/8.10 CHARLES OLIVEIRA +162
• 2/1.26 OLIVEIRA vs MAKHACHEV o1½ -159

Bad luck for TJ, but no fault of Aljo as he looked great.

 

[ProV1Colt]

GL Pickem!!