Finally a strong card worth appreciating. Glad they fighting early morning in Singapore so we get normal time here. Should be some bangers on a relatively short 11-fight card for a numbered event.
My record suffered 2 weeks ago after that terrible decision in the Holms fight, one of the worse I can remember, but head up and moving on.
Pascual Decision ...Pascual's solid chin and relentless pursuit of takedowns should fare better at Featherweight. Neither fighter is good enough to really push their advantages, but Pascual’s stylistic advantages should be favored.
Liang Sub ...Stylistically, Dragon Girl has the tools to take Juarez down early and find a sub with bags of time on the mat. Juarez is ancient for a young fighter’s division, and although Liang’s striking defense is woeful, Juarez’s TDD is far more glaring.
Danaa KO ...Danaa may well struggle against a durable veteran who has a wrestling base to draw on if he chooses, but I can see a KO. Kang has too often flip-flopped between trading on the feet and physically grinding opponents from fight to fight. If Kang obliges with a war in the pocket, Danaa should have an easy night.
BRENDAN ALLEN(18-5) VS JACOB MALKOUN(6-1) ~ Middleweight (185)
Allen early KO ...Malkoun is a good fighter with his decision-making and leading fights to his preferred areas. The Aussie is solid jabbing off the back-foot, a weapon that is rarely seen in MMA. Off the back of feints, Malkoun finds his way into the clinch from where he owns enough tricks to lock opponents down. Unfortunately, in the clinch, Allen’s size will present an insurmountable factor.
HAYISAER MAHESHATE(6-1) VS STEVE GARCIA(12-4) ~ Lightweight (155)
Garcia ITD ...Garcia is relentless in pursuit of the takedown, and although his wrestling requires work, it should be enough against Maheshate. The DWCS victory evidenced his ability to recover which will be vital in his early career learning fights. While Meheshate will be able to experiment on the feet relatively painlessly against Garcia, the Chinese prospect’s TDD is unproven.
SEUNG WOO CHOI(10-4) VS JOSHUA CULIBAO(9-1-1) ~ Featherweight (145)
Choi ...It ain’t pretty, but Culibao’s jab and low kicks allow him to survive in the UFC. Choi can walk on to shots in pursuit of landing his work, but it’s fair game for the Korean to assume he will come out on top for every 50/50 exchange. There is a clear pathway for Choi to dominate in the center and consistently pepper Culibao as he fails to get inside. Unfortunately for the Aussie, this feels like a physical bridge that cannot be crossed.
JAKE DELLA MADDALENA(11-2) VS RAMAZAN EMEEV(20-5) ~ Welterweight (170)
Emeev Decision ...Emeev is a thoroughly consistent, experienced veteran who has a skillset designed to neutralize Maddalena. Perhaps the UFC has identified a drop in the pace in Emeev’s game and believes the Russian cannot handle the pace that the Aussie brings. More likely, Emeev happily ignores the crowd’s demands for blood and sits on 15 minutes of control time from the top. This is an unnecessarily difficult step-up in competition for Maddalena, potentially terrible match-making by the UFC.
JAKE MATTHEW(17-5) VS ANDRE FIALHO(16-4) ~ Welterweight (170)
Fialho KO ...It’s a dumb call, but I’m rolling with the Fialho hype train. Matthew’s defensive boxing has improved over his 15-fight UFC career, in part due to repeated failures to fall back on the wrestling base that carried him in the regionals. Matthew’s dull pace on the feet may well benefit him, as he rarely makes mistakes and will leave Fialho with limited opportunities for counters. Matthew represents a real test of Fialho’s TDD consistency – a fighter who was silenced by Glaico Franca on the mat. Still, Fialho carries lights-out power, is a notorious confident fighter flying high on a two-fight streak, and has an honestly aesthetic style.
WEILI ZHANG(21-3) VS JOANNA JEDRZEJCZYK(16-4) ~ Women’s Strawweight (115)
Jedrzejcyzk Decision ...A three-round re-run of Zhang and Jedrzejcyk’s championship slobber knocker back in 2020. Zhang’s work on the outside largely remains picking away with kick counters or heavy single-shot strikes. Joanna has sat on the sidelines for a considerable amount of time (over two years), can the former champ immediately hop into her preferred electric pace? Joanna’s style feels tailor-made for an active fighter, based on reactive striking and naturally adjusting throughout a fight. Considering Zhang’s increased wrestling intent, there's a strong possibility that Joanna is neutralized early. That isn’t to totally write off JJ, though. The Pole is a fabulous rematch fighter and did win the early rounds in the first fight with Zhang. Zhang is the safer selection, but I'm going with my gut here.
Shevchenko ...Santos carries power, Joanne Wood was buzzed several times on the way to her sub loss. Whether Santos can close the distance against Shevchenko is the true question. There hasn’t been much evidence of consistent cage-cutting against an efficient back-foot striker. Patience and smart decisions form the foundation of Shev’s game plan. Rarely does she change up her approach in a fight. It’s either a patient kickboxing affair or in the case of Maia and her pressure, Shevchenko was forced to grapple. Santos could prove a problem with her physicality in the clinch, but Shevchenko’s trips are too consistently clean to doubt whether the champion can find a way to top control if necessary. It likely goes the distance but not ruling out a tricky sub either. At -600 there is no value with Valentina ML. +175 for unanimous decision or +500 by sub may be the better way to attack this bout. +195 by KO/TKO or DQ is a little less appealing but also another possible avenue. Taila's only real avenue to win is likely by KO, so at +900 that could provide a possible hedge??
