273

[mrpickem]

An excellent card here in my town. I actually considered going to the fights, but once I saw the prices I decided TV would do...lol. All seats in the first 12 rows were over 3K and the front 2 rows that were for sale were in the 6-7K range. IMO fights are only fun if you can be close to the action and worthless in the upper bowl in the "cheap" $325 seat. No wonder Dana's regularly announcing gates over 2M. :rolleyes:



Had a decent outing last time to get my head back above water...so here's to it continuing...

 

[Andy]

Hopefully prices stabilize to more reasonable ranges the more events they do with fans around the country. I want to try and make it to an event this yr somewhere.

 

[mrpickem]

UFC 273: Prelims...​

Julio Arce(17-5) vs Daniel Santos (10-1) ~ Bantamweight (135)

• Arce Decision ...If they battle on the outside, Santos has shown the ability over his 9-year career to piece together excellent kickboxing combinations. When you consider the two-year gap since his last fight and a lack of experience similar to Arce, it is harder to believe that Arce doesn’t find a way to win. Walking down Andre Ewell is no easy feat, yet Arce bowled him over with relentless pressure.

Piera Rodriguez (7-0) vs Kay Hansen (7-5) ~ Women’s Strawweight (115)

• Hansen ... Disregarding her awkward affair with a far larger Jasmine Jasudavicius, Hansen’s wrestling should prove far better vs Rodriguez. That isn’t to say Piera can't win, she is a vicious striker on the inside who carries surprising pop. Even with Hansen’s poor decision-making, however, the wrestling differential is too much to pass on.

Aleksei Oleinik (59-16-1) vs Jared Vanderaa (12-7) ~ Heavyweight (265)

• Oleinik early sub ... Vanderaa is hard to watch, lacking the power to at least be a half-entertaining, a brawling HW mess. By virtue of owning a chin capable of weathering a 44yr old grappler’s boxing, Vanderaa has a very real chance of out-lasting Oleinik’s one-round gas tank. I hate it, and although I fully believe that Vanderaa will win late, I'll Oleinik to force the early tap.

Mickey Gall (7-4) vs Mike Malott (12-7) ~ Welterweight (170)

• Gall ITD ... Malott may have collected a string of first-round finishes, but Malott often faces a lot of adversity before finishing bouts. Gall is more consistent and more experienced, but stamina issues will always plague him. While Gall’s BJJ has often been held aloft as the ‘money’ part of his game, it is worth noting that his shoddy gas tank saw Gall lose to a second-round TKO vs Diego Sanchez’s corpse...lol

Aspen Ladd (9-2) vs Raquel Pennington (13-8) ~ Women’s Featherweight (135)

• Ladd Decision ... Ladd has a history of bad weight cuts, injuries, and largely wins based on her physical strength negating the opponent’s technical superiorities. While Ladd will indeed find herself the superior athlete in this affair, her defensive holes on the feet (and dreadful decision making) may see Pennington piece her apart today, however, I'll back the stronger, younger, more athletic fighter by a razor-thin margin.

Anthony Hernandez (8-2) vs Josh Fremd (9-2) ~ Middleweight (185)

• Hernandez Decision ... Josh Fremd debuts on short notice which already puts him at a disadvantage in the long-haul banger that Hernandez will bring. There is the potential that Fremd finds a hard counter early that switches off Hernandez’s lights as he flies into his combinations. More likely though is Hernandez digging deep and out-cardioing Fremd.

​

Ian Garry (8-0) vs Darian Weeks (5-1) ~ Welterweight (170)

• Garry TKO ... Even though the UFC likely runs a promo featuring Garry’s crushing KO finish over Jordan Williams, it's important to remember that he was pieced up for the previous four minutes of the fight. Surprised by Williams’ speed and range, Garry will tower over Weeks and thankfully rely on his limited ‘lean back’ defensive movement. Weeks’ solid chin and strong wrestling base are set to test Garry’s scrambles. Should be a good fight between two somewhat unproven quantities.

 

[mrpickem]

Apparently, the first fight's at 6:30 pm although UFC.com has the start time listed at 5 pm. I do think they lost a couple of fights off of the original schedule.

First 2...

• 2.85/1.5 JULIO ARCE -190
• 2.50/3 JULIO ARCE DEC/TECH DEC +120
• 2.80/2 DANIEL SANTOS vs JULIO ARCE o2½ -140
• 4/4.32 KAY HANSEN +108

Let's Fucking Go!!!​

 

[mrpickem]

[3-1 +2.5u]

• 2/2.52 ALEKSEI OLEINIK +126
• 2.07/3 MICKEY GALL +145
• 4/2.50 Mickey Gall / Mike Malott UNDER 2½ -160

Craziest shit I ever seen, Oliinik was only +110 inside the distance, better odds just to win. Go figure.

 

[mrpickem]

[5-2 +5.45u]

• 3.70/5 ASPEN LADD +135
• 5/2.79 ANTHONY HERNANDEZ -179
• 1.80/2 JOSH FREMD vs ANTHONY HERNANDEZ o1½ +111

Nice KO as Gall got touched link​

 

[mrpickem]

More action than I expected in this one...

 

[mrpickem]

[7-3 +6.54u]

• 4/4.00 IAN GARRY KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +100
• 3/2.42 IAN GARRY vs DARIAN WEEKS u2½ -124

 

[mrpickem]

UFC 273: Main Card...

Vinc Pichel (14-2) vs Mark Madsen (11-0) ~ Lightweight (155)

• Madsen Decision ... Slight lean with the superior wrestler over the well-rounded, gritty skillset of Pichel. Madsen’s later round conditioning issues could cause real problems for the Dane if he's unable to pin Pichel to the mat. Pichel is Mr Adaptable, with the experience to brush off a dominant Madsen opening and come into the fight late. Tossup / small play but maybe a fun fight.

Mackenzie Dern (11-2) vs Tecia Torres (13-5) ~ Women’s Strawweight (115)

• Torres ... The Tiny Tornado may have sunk to a four-fight slide between 2018-2019, but it came against the very best strawweights out there. A never-ending gas tank allows Torres to pour out an unmatchable volume on the feet, with a strong wrestling base to boot. Although Dern is a phenomenal grappler, perhaps the best at 115, her wrestling inadequacies often leave her stranded on her feet. Her striking has developed leaps and bounds since her UFC debut, but as seen against Marina Rodriguez, it won’t ever be enough to pick up W’s when the wrestling is amiss.

Gilbert Burns (20-4) vs Khamzat Chimaev (10-0) ~ Welterweight (170)

• Chimaev ITD ... Burns holds power in the hands that can crack anyone, Usman can attest. Whether Burns’ is as capable of countering a freakishly large, sweltering pressure fighter in Chimaev, however, is difficult to gauge. Low kicks are usually a key weapon of Durinho, but Chimaev likely won't leave time for this. I doubt Chimaev looks quite as impervious as his earlier UFC whitewashes, but I do expect Chimaev eventually presses Burns to the fence even if the Swede eats a fair amount of damage in the process. Burns’ worrying preference to pull guard, even against Usman, is a potential red flag that will only benefit the Khamzat's hellacious ground and pound. Crazy odds make this one hard to play and I'm very tempted to take a flyer on Gilbert, but the astute selection has to be Borz.

 

[mrpickem]

Well that sucked ass!

[7-5 -0.46u]

• 4/3.88 TECIA TORRES -103
• 2/4.60 MARK MADSEN DEC/TECH DEC +230
• 3/3.03 MARK MADSEN +101
  
  
  

 

[mrpickem]

UFC 273: Co-Main Event
Aljamain Sterling (20-3) vs Petr Yan (16-2) ~ UFC Bantamweight Championship (135)

• Yan KO ... The real question for this rematch is whether Sterling can find any sort of foothold in the fight? Aljo did find success on the ground vs Yan in the opening rounds of their first bout, but it exhausted him and he failed to threaten Yan afterwards. Admittedly, Sterling regularly found a home for bodywork on the feet, but Yan’s durability is freakish and seemed to have little effect. Considering that Yan is an elite adapter, who will enter this rematch with a near-perfect blueprint of Aljo, the Russian has to be considered a heavy, heavy favorite to reclaim his belt. I really wanted to back Sterling but the harder I look, the more I doubt his chances.

UFC 273: Main Event
Alexander Volkanovski (23-1) vs Chan Sung Jung (17-6) ~ UFC Featherweight Championship (145)

• Volkanovski ... Perhaps it is the dominance of Volkanovski’s championship reign, perhaps it is TKZ’s lukewarm return from service, but the main event title fight hasn’t attracted much attention. What Jung brings that is fresh, is a level of power that Volk hasn't faced. Volkanovski loves to duck on the inside, while TKZ’s uppercuts are a beautiful leveler. The Aussie’s chin is exceptional, but stranger things have happened in the cage. There is a real possibility that TKZ finds himself pinned against the cage and ground down similar to Volk vs Aldo. TKZ can be frozen by feints, as the Korean is often static while he reads his opponent. Alexander’s relentless energy could dominate the positioning in the cage and lead to a safe yet thoroughly underwhelming title defense. Most likely a one-sided decision over the ultra-durable Jung.

 

[mrpickem]

[9-6 +3.17u]

• 3.48/3 KHAMZAT CHIMAEV ss KHAMZAT CHIMAEV u1½ -116
• 1.71/7 GILBERT BURNS +409
• 4/4.40 PETR YAN KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +110

Had to go with Durinho at these ridiculous odds. :cowboy:​