263
- Thread starter mrpickem
- Start date
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Thought on most of the prelims...
- Despite his padded record, Felipe has slowly begun to prove.
A straight ahead jabber and low-kicker HW prototype, plodding for the full three rounds, Felipe’s chin and late-round output are decent qualities. Collier, did throw huge volume vs Gian Villante but beating Villante don’t count for much these days. Felipe should wear him down for possible late finish. - Hooper is a hard fighter to back after his past couple of fights. There's a huge amount of guesswork whether Hooper will be able to get the fight to the mat, and even before then, if the 21-year-old can limit the punishment sustained on the feet. Of course, on the mat, Hooper’s huge 6’1″ frame is a nightmare for opponents to hang with. Old vet, Steven Peterson, is stylistic torture for Hooper, most likely. Super durable, aggressive on the feet and surprisingly competent submission grappler, Peterson should be able to keep the fight standing long enough to dominate every round. Desision.
- Solid everywhere, Frevola is a rugged, gritty fighter who ships a lot of punishment as he drags opponents into murky waters. Targetting the body with kicks before shooting on their softened mid-rift, Frevola is a difficult fighter for opponents to predict in the octagon. Short notice call-up, Terrance McKinney, is a high-amplitude striker who races into fights with flashy strikes to create confusion before scrambling for an opponent’s back. Adhering to the kill or be killed tag, McKinney’s explosive bursts leave him fatigued by the second round. While Frevola has been stopped early before, a knockout loss to Polo Reyes in a minute, he more regularly shrugs off huge damage. Likely ITD.
- Riding a 3-fight rise, Kianzad is burning hot after her torrid start in the UFC. Sharpening her boxing on the outside, Kianzad has also patched up her clinch work with effective dirty boxing. A lack of feints and robotic movement, however, allows opponents (i.e. Jessica Rose-Clark) to land hard counters. Former Bantamweight challenger, Alexis Davis, looked like a fighter reborn against Sabina Mazo. Dominating fights based on savvy and technical superiority, Davis’ utilizes late takedowns, low kicks and grinding clinch work to steal rounds on the cards. Over and decision for Pannie.
- Despite the lack of stoppages, Dawodu is a sharp, technical counter striker with underrated power. Often called upon his chin to prime for counters, Dawodu out-strikes opponents with significant shots rather than volume. Killer body kicks find Dawodu great success but also leave him exposed to takedowns. Against, Evloev, it is a risky choice to take. The well-rounded chain wrestler sets a hard pace and thrives in ugly fights. Solid boxing with surprising snap keeps Evloev active in between grappling, but the ‘take one to give one’ mindset is dangerous to adopt against Dawodu.
- Murphy is a one-dimensional fighter that regularly fails to entertain. Either grinding opponents on the feet with awkward boxing or more commonly securing long stretches of control time on the mat, Murphy is a work-horse who fights on her own terms for three rounds. Calderwood, WMMA’s sweetheart, has an excellent array of kicks and a solid clinch game yet often fails to bring the correct game plan to the octagon. Regularly losing to grapplers who aren’t afraid of eating a punch, Calderwood’s lack of power leaves her powerless to hitting the mat. More often than not though, Calderwood drowns opponents in volume for 15 minutes.
- Quick starter Drew Dober pours out huge pressure and a suffocating pace which prevents opponents from finding an opening. It is Dober’s wrestling, or threat of, which will determine his success against Riddell. Often, Dober’s grinding wrestling is often just another look to boost his relentless pressure boxing. Technically cleaner, Riddell’s greater variety on the feet with creative counter combinations will likely lead to consistent uppercuts catching Dober on level changes. With both men tough as old boots, it’s difficult to see a knockout stoppage from either man. Decision for the Aussie is my lean.
Big daddy naught
Pretty much a regular
He decided to fight too late.
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
notes on main card...
- There's a
lot of questions surrounding Hill. Undeniable, of course, is his knockout power. With a huge reach advantage over many at 205lbs, Hill also benefits from his heavy hands and fleet footwork. The major question mark lays over Hill’s relatively untested ground game. Taken down six times by Darko Stosic, arguably those numbers only ramped up after Hill broke his hand. Craig is an aggressive, fast-paced striker who threatens with wrestling from the get-go. While the Scot’s pace can fall off during the later rounds, he remains dangerous from the mat throughout. Against a young fighter with questionable TDD and grappling, Craig has a great chance to ugly wrestle his way to victory. - At 43, and with a chin that has faded over the years, it is a miracle we still get to see Maia in the octagon. The simple truth is: Maia’s cardio doesn’t hold up anymore. If Maia is to be victorious at UFC 263, he will have to find it in the first round when he is capable of explosive bursts. An excellent game-planner, there is little reason to believe that Muhammad will commit to his stellar wrestling. Rather, Muhammad should ride on his deep gas tank, crisp boxing and solid chin to ride an early wave of pressure before breaking the old man down during the later rounds. Likely late stoppage.
- Stylistically, Edwards should wipe the floor with Diaz. As a Southpaw, the channel is wide open for Edwards to destroy Diaz’s legs. On the outside, Edwards can box up Diaz as the Brit’s angles will continue to frustrate Diaz’s ugly pressure. Edward’s gas tank is a real issue, though. There always seems to be a sharp decline in the output by the final rounds. Whether that is a mental boom or conditioning trouble, there is a clean loss of initiative. Despite Diaz’s deep gas tank, he thrives in attritional warfare that requires himself to pull ahead around the mid-rounds. Moreover, Edward’s always has the emergency back-up wrestling plan if he fails to piece together his striking on the night. Leon should get a finish 3rd or later from damage attrition.
- The most obvious hole in Figs's game is flawed decision making. Dropping his jab that peppered Moreno for the first two rounds, Fig instead chased wild power shots. There is no denying the Brazilians freak KO power at 125, but it seems foolish to fall away from a game plan that was dominating. Moreno possesses breathless cardio and a titanium chin, but he was comfortably beaten in the early 50/50 exchanges. Relying on his granite chin, and by committing to counters earlier, Moreno can set a pace that only he can match during the championship rounds. While it seems ludicrous to fight fire with fire against such a heavy-handed foe, it is key for Moreno to lead the fight. Figueiredo should win this fight comfortable if he maintains his composure on the outside, but his propensity for a mental meltdown is always hiding in the shadows.
- Despite failing to secure double champ status last time out, Adesanya is still very much one of the UFC’s top champs. I don't really see what changes Vettori has made that will stop Adesanya from winning another decision based on the jab alone. With a 6" reach advantage against a wrestler with limited head movement, twenty-five minutes of a ram-rod jab will break any opponent from continuing to close the distance. Vettori has sharpened his boxing, especially his jab, but he will still struggle to ever come out on top in 50/50 exchanges due to the reach differential. Vettori’s pressure boxing shines when his wrestling remains a potent threat. Against Kevin Holland, Vettori built upon his eleven takedowns to level change into intelligent, extended combinations. Adesanya’s TDD looked amateur against Jan last time out, but the 25lb jump in weight may have played a large factor in hampering an otherwise stellar TDD. If, as is expected, Vettori cannot pressure with takedowns, the glaring holes in his striking defense will be exposed. An excellent chin and exhausting pace will keep Vettori active throughout, but he lacks the flush power to trouble Adesanya. This is the Kiwi’s fight to lose.