2026 Golf Handicapping Thread....

Valero rd.1.

Make cut- Spieth / Hisatsune / Straka +110 5u (DK)
Noren under 71.5 -148 5u (DK)

GL on your plays this week
 
As far as outrights go this tournament is wild... I don't think I've seen one this year where so much value has been sucked out...

Look at some of these names that are less than 35-1 this week...

I played Denny +3500 earlier this week...

Thorbjornsen +2800 needs a win to get to Augusta. He's been knocking on the door but has Sunday issues.

Small flyer on ADDC +9500 and Smotherman +6600

I could play SO MANY guys this week. But, a lot of course fits have no value to me price wise.

I'll be watching numbers for ..

Keefer
Nick Taylor
J Smith
Yella
Straka

As far as the big names...

Tommy and Deki short games really interesting me here. But, are they here to grind a win? Or, just preparing for next week. They are being stalked.

Henley and Bobby Mac are popular guys this week for good reason. These are the types that are full boar looking for a win. I have zero issue with betting them, if you find a good price somewhere.

Back to Bobby... Lefty... Look at the past few years.
 
Live rd.1 Valero- Straka under 71.5 -104 5u (DK) 1 over thru 4, just tripled 3rd hole
 
1-2 Rd.1 Valero, -7.9u. Both Harman & Straka had ample opportunities to get under par.

Rd.2 live add: Cole under 72.5 -142, 7.2u (DK) 1 over thru 3.
 
Bobby Mac cruising and that's no surprise.

My problem there is his numbers had zero value. Although I popped him in a few DFS lineups I simply couldn't do the OUTRIGHT at that low #.

Argh.

Sometimes you wish you just go against your principles...
 
laopadak said:
1-2 Rd.1 Valero, -7.9u. Both Harman & Straka had ample opportunities to get under par.

Rd.2 live add: Cole under 72.5 -142, 7.2u (DK) 1 over thru 3.
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The triple by Straka likely is the difference in making/missing the cut.
 
B.A.R. said:
Bobby Mac cruising and that's no surprise.

My problem there is his numbers had zero value. Although I popped him in a few DFS lineups I simply couldn't do the OUTRIGHT at that low #.

Argh.

Sometimes you wish you just go against your principles...
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Aberg now has value
 
B.A.R. said:
The triple by Straka likely is the difference in making/missing the cut.
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Tough hole that triple was yesterday, just a bad chip that lead to some back and forth. Still a decent chance to make cut, need 3-4 birds, 3 par 5’s left and a semi easier front 9. LFG
 
3-0 rd.2 Valero +13.2u. 4-3 total +.3u including pre tourney make cut bet. Could be better but happy to be on the plus side. Patiently waiting for rd.3 lines

Wind suppose to pick up in the afternoon, early wave should benefit from overnight rain and less wind. Leggo
 
Rd.3 Valero: M Kim under 70.5 -116 7.5u (DK)
Dang, got a bad number at DK..can’t cash out

Add- buying off bad number on Kim: M Kim over 70.5 -115 7.5u (DK)
Add- M Kim under 71.5 -115 7.5u (Fanatics)
Add- Finau under 71.5 -150 7.5u (Fanatics)
 
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laopadak said:
Rd.3 Valero: M Kim under 70.5 -116 7.5u (DK)
Dang, got a bad number at DK..can’t cash out

Add- buying off bad number on Kim: M Kim over 70.5 -115 7.5u (DK)
Add- M Kim under 71.5 -115 7.5u (Fanatics)
Add- Finau under 71.5 -150 7.5u (Fanatics)
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Mike -3 so far.

Let's see if golf ever restarts!

Easier conditions early, no doubt!
 
Short break between rd.3 & 4, doesn’t sound like they’re regrouping- gonna be interesting finish for sure.
 
KJ said:
Haven't watched. Ludvig worth a small flyer to win?
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His alignment’s been off rd.3- think same pairing rd.4, good a shot as any, thinking Bobby Mac, Kim or Ludvig. Stalking live
 
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Preferred lies rd.4- wind suppose to be down in the afternoon. Final pairing could be chasing from 3-4 behind. Wish I didn’t have family affairs today, otherwise glued to the tube
 
I took Spaun for fun at 13-1. I thought about betting him pre tournament but not hard enough.

Mike Kim hasn't put together a full tournament in awhile so happy to see this.

Should be fun!
 
Ain’t no stopping, rd.4 Yellamaraju under 70.5 -112 7.5u (Ceasars) Even thru 1
Add: Finau under 71.5 -118 6.25u (DK) 1 over thru 1
 
B.A.R. said:
I took Spaun for fun at 13-1. I thought about betting him pre tournament but not hard enough.

Mike Kim hasn't put together a full tournament in awhile so happy to see this.

Should be fun!
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Putnam playing into the wind on #18

JJ couldn't birdie 18.

Bobby needs up and down on the par 3 and then will have eagle/birdie opps coming in for a playoff as well.
 
Bobby getting relief is just another case of how much more coddled pros are than us average Joes. When we hit it 40 yards right, we play from 40 yards right. Pro gets a drop.
 
B.A.R. said:
I took Spaun for fun at 13-1. I thought about betting him pre tournament but not hard enough.

Mike Kim hasn't put together a full tournament in awhile so happy to see this.

Should be fun!
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Well done big dog. Not sure what you saw but dang, what a win
 
laopadak said:
Well done big dog. Not sure what you saw but dang, what a win
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4th most predictive course on tour.

He's won there.

Solid in the wind.

That being said, he didn't make my outright cuts. He was in just outside.

But, with him within 3 shots starting the 4th I decided to take a shot. He had the most value with a guy I trusted to get it done.

Big win for him, he's struggled this year.

I honestly only won a unit total on this tournament. But, I was looking at a donut with Straka bet and a few outrights.
 
3-2 Rd.4 Valero +8.5, hit the parlay.
10-4 +22.5u final tally for Valero. Hoping run continues into the Masters, tricky one for me, betting wise but shall see.

Leggo Augusta!
 
A couple of Masters threads for good discussion but keeping my plays in here, for easy record keeping. Should be another epic showdown and will be able to catch and stalk live action. No outrights or top X's yet, gonna see how the tourney plays out. Think we see some good scoring Rd.1

Ceasars and Fanatics has opened up quite a bit of golf plays so using them to shop against my go to, DK.

Rd.1
X under 71.5 -135 7u (Ceasars)
C Young under 71.5 -124 7u (DK)
Bridgeman under 72.5 -126 7u (DK)
Rose under 71.5 +110 7u (DK)

LFG!
 
laopadak said:
A couple of Masters threads for good discussion but keeping my plays in here, for easy record keeping. Should be another epic showdown and will be able to catch and stalk live action. No outrights or top X's yet, gonna see how the tourney plays out. Think we see some good scoring Rd.1

Ceasars and Fanatics has opened up quite a bit of golf plays so using them to shop against my go to, DK.

Rd.1
X under 71.5 -135 7u (Ceasars)
C Young under 71.5 -124 7u (DK)
Bridgeman under 72.5 -126 7u (DK)
Rose under 71.5 +110 7u (DK)

LFG!
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Nothing I can disagree with!

Can't wait brother!
 
I’ve been taking a break from sports betting. Watching golf when I can, but working many weekends and just can’t put the time in to have any feel of who is playing well. Best of luck with your plays this week and enjoy the golf…
 
Masters plays:

Top 20:
Rose +136
P Reed +148
Adam Scott +176
Conners +205
Mav +215

Top 10:
Rahm +100
X +170
Rose +325
Reed +365

Top 5:
X +365

To Win:
X +1800
Fitz +2350
Rose +3500
Reed +4300

I took Xander and P Reed in my OAD (we pick 2 for the majors and Players)
 
Live Rd.1 Masters- Singh +168 (boosted) v. McCarty 2u (DK). Both even thru 3.
 
Not going to do much til the weekend but did throw some pennies on both Aberg and Fatty Mitz FRL
 
Rd.1 live adds:

Fitz under 72.5 -154 5u(DK) even thru 1.
C. Young under 72.5 -110 5u(DK) +1 thru 1.
 
Really enjoyed first round coverage, just had to get use to the Masters app, webpage layout but coverage was pretty good. Bridgeman finished strong, beating Shitty Garcia H2H making it a double win for me.

3-1 pre-bets, 0-3 live bets. 3-4 -.55u so far. Hit a couple unposted so feeling good into Rd.2 Several plays already in for Friday (all at DK). Stalking live again tomorrow.

Deki under 72.5 -150 8u
Bridgeman under 72.5 +100 7u
JT under 72.5 -112 7u
Numero Uno under 70.5 -102 7u

Adds:
Knapp under 72.5 -104 4u
DeChambro 71 or under +104 (boosted) 5u (MGM)
Numero Uno 70 or under +100 3u (MGM)
 
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laopadak said:
Really enjoyed first round coverage, just had to get use to the Masters app, webpage layout but coverage was pretty good. Bridgeman finished strong, beating Shitty Garcia H2H making it a double win for me.

3-1 pre-bets, 0-3 live bets. 3-4 -.55u so far. Hit a couple unposted so feeling good into Rd.2 Several plays already in for Friday (all at DK). Stalking live again tomorrow.

Deki under 72.5 -150 8u
Bridgeman under 72.5 +100 7u
JT under 72.5 -112 7u
Numero Uno under 70.5 -102 7u

Adds:
Knapp under 72.5 -104 4u
DeChambro 71 or under +104 (boosted) 5u (MGM)
Numero Uno 70 or under +100 3u (MGM)
Click to expand...
Masters app is so incredible
 
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