2026 Golf Handicapping Thread....

laopadak

laopadak

2024 and 2025 CTG Supporting Donation Member
Happy New Year CTG golf nuts / golfers and golf cappers- Starting the 2026 season long Golf Handicapping thread as we've had success for the past few years.

Post thoughts, tweets, stats, link resources, post plays, weekly fantasy line-ups, LPGA, DP World, Champions, LIV, local HS, NCAA- anything that'll make some $$$

Bummed for no Sentry this year as it's a great starter tourney and brings back fond memories of Maui. Sony Open starts next week.

LFG!
 
Great minds think alike as I was thinking this week was the time to get this started. I'm actually having a small handicapping session with my DFS buddy later this afternoon. He's a nut but has definitely helped me out a lot the last year.
 
B.A.R. said:
Great minds think alike as I was thinking this week was the time to get this started. I'm actually having a small handicapping session with my DFS buddy later this afternoon. He's a nut but has definitely helped me out a lot the last year.
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Do share any tips to consider for DFS. I recall you did pretty good on long shots / FRL's last year..
 
B.A.R. said:
Paging @gps_3 @laopadak and any others who have one and done advice for the upcoming season.
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I just reupped for my one and done contest and just started looking. The site changed and it doesn't show current form and course history so I'm having to do this the hard way for now. Any good sites where that info is all put together? I definitely look at the Ron Klos twitter feed.
 
gps_3 said:
I just reupped for my one and done contest and just started looking. The site changed and it doesn't show current form and course history so I'm having to do this the hard way for now. Any good sites where that info is all put together? I definitely look at the Ron Klos twitter feed.
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What site are you using?
 

The Golf Course​

Wai'alae Country Club - Par 70; 7,044 yards

Past Champions

  • 2025 - Nick Taylor (-16) over Nico Echavarria (playoff)
  • 2024 - Grayson Murray (-17) over Keegan Bradley & Byeong Hun An (playoff)
  • 2023 - Si Woo Kim (-18) over Hayden Buckley
  • 2022 - Hideki Matsuyama (-23) over Russell Henley (playoff)
  • 2021 - Kevin Na (-21) over Chris Kirk & Joaquin Niemann
  • 2020 - Cameron Smith (-11) over Brendan Steele (playoff)

Article here- MSN
 
laopadak said:

The Golf Course​

Wai'alae Country Club - Par 70; 7,044 yards

Past Champions

  • 2025 - Nick Taylor (-16) over Nico Echavarria (playoff)
  • 2024 - Grayson Murray (-17) over Keegan Bradley & Byeong Hun An (playoff)
  • 2023 - Si Woo Kim (-18) over Hayden Buckley
  • 2022 - Hideki Matsuyama (-23) over Russell Henley (playoff)
  • 2021 - Kevin Na (-21) over Chris Kirk & Joaquin Niemann
  • 2020 - Cameron Smith (-11) over Brendan Steele (playoff)

Article here- MSN
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A lot of playoffs here.

Last year was quite memorable. I thought my Taylor ticket was toast until the chip.

That 80-1 was incredible.

I'm excited to get this party started again!
 
B.A.R. said:
Heard. Which one and done if you don't mind sharing?

I'm also in splash.
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Which pool? It's a private one. Or which player? Right now I'm looking at Corey Conners. Fits the profile but isn't getting too much pub from the PRs I've seen so far
 
gps_3 said:
Which pool? It's a private one. Or which player? Right now I'm looking at Corey Conners. Fits the profile but isn't getting too much pub from the PRs I've seen so far
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Gotcha.

I'm new to this.

I'm in some pool that has a 1.25 Mill prize pool.
 
Good stuff @B.A.R. Just looked at weather before coming here. Started looking at books to see if anything has changed for 2026.

Most books still won't let you parlay top X plays, DK does.
FD prices on over/unders are still some of the best I've found.
Ceasars- maybe I didn't see them last year on mobile app but PC version now have over/unders, quite a few of them.
MGM- Has top X round 1, that can be parlayed. Won a few last year at big + money so will be trying again this year.
 
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laopadak said:
Good stuff @B.A.R. Just looked at weather before coming here. Started looking at books to see if anything has changed for 2026.

Most books still won't let you parlay top X plays, DK does.
FD prices on over/unders are still some of the best I've found.
Ceasars- maybe I didn't see them last year on mobile app but PC version now have over/unders, quite a few of them.
MGM- Has top X round 1, that can be parlayed. Won a few last year at big + money so will be trying again this year.
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Appreciate the insight on these!
 
Definitely a big advantage tomorrow with the AM wave vs the PM wave.

Friday and Saturday seem to be pretty equal overall.
 
B.A.R. said:
Definitely a big advantage tomorrow with the AM wave vs the PM wave.

Friday and Saturday seem to be pretty equal overall.
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Mostly working on DFS this week but obviously some outrights are a must!

I played Rai the other day...


Rai 35-1
Connors 25-1
Power 125-1
Eck 130-1
Coody 125-1

I've seen Coody steamed down to 75 at a few spots. I grabbed him and Power via PPH fwiw.

Rai and Connors are a bit bigger(around .3). I'll always be around .1 on the bets that are 100 or more. The most I'll ever do is a full unit, at least pre-tournament.

DFS for the week.... Here is my pool...

Rai
Kirk
Morikawa
Connors
Eck
Davis
Berger
Mitchell
Taylor
Nico
Henley
Power
Coody
Billy Ho
McCarty

Some of those subject to change in the last 9 hours before the tournament starts.

Heavy lean to early wave. I generally don't go overboard on the waves but this one looks like it will hold.
 
The biggest thing this week and I wish I could break this down more...

Who's somewhat in form? Who took December off for the holidays and is still getting back into form?

Henley is priced so high and we haven't seen him in some time -- for example.

Deki
JJ
Gotterup
Spieth
Rai
Keegan

And maybe 1-2 more all played in the Hero 5 weeks ago. That helps. Also, the Bahamas= wind usually. So, those guys have played in similar conditions recently.

Just a few capping thoughts there.

Just over one unit invested to start the season. Maybe we catch fire with a golfer. If not, we learn a lot and head into the desert ready to go!
 
B.A.R. said:
The biggest thing this week and I wish I could break this down more...

Who's somewhat in form? Who took December off for the holidays and is still getting back into form?

Henley is priced so high and we haven't seen him in some time -- for example.

Deki
JJ
Gotterup
Spieth
Rai
Keegan

And maybe 1-2 more all played in the Hero 5 weeks ago. That helps. Also, the Bahamas= wind usually. So, those guys have played in similar conditions recently.

Just a few capping thoughts there.

Just over one unit invested to start the season. Maybe we catch fire with a golfer. If not, we learn a lot and head into the desert ready to go!
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First tourney and also a little gun shy. Too many unknowns with form / off season events / mindset etc. Added a couple of plays small but will be watching- hopefully something pops up to play live.
 
Winds steady today, mid teens. Rd.2 play

Billly Ho under 69.5 -150 2u (FD). Wanted to play more but FD capped it.
 
0-2 Sony thus far, -4.5u
Liking H Hall to hang in there (-190 Top 5, ties paid, looks like a great parlay partner), possibly outright. Good numbers on driving accuracy, # of pars, lower # of bogeys, just hasn't had as many birds as others.

Rd. 4 play-

SH Kim under 69.5 -130 3u (DK). Paired up with SW Kim today and had a difficult round yesterday. Hoping Kimchi jibes and they both go out and have fun and put up something respectable.
 
Thinking about rolling with local product and former Bama guy Lee Hodges this weekend for OAD. He's battled some injuries over the last 2 seasons, and started this year with status based on a major medical extension. He met those criteria in his first start last week with a T6, so he's now in the Players and I think has full status for the entire season. Has a 34th and a 3rd sandwiched around a couple of MC. Also looking at Harry Hall, JT Poston and Ben Griffin if I want to go chalky
 
Michael Block in the field at Amex, +1400 to make the cut..

Worth a few bucks to cheer the dude on
 
gps_3 said:
Thinking about rolling with local product and former Bama guy Lee Hodges this weekend for OAD. He's battled some injuries over the last 2 seasons, and started this year with status based on a major medical extension. He met those criteria in his first start last week with a T6, so he's now in the Players and I think has full status for the entire season. Has a 34th and a 3rd sandwiched around a couple of MC. Also looking at Harry Hall, JT Poston and Ben Griffin if I want to go chalky
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Funny, I was just listening to a handicapping pod on the way home and Hodges has moved up my list big time.
 
laopadak said:
Michael Block in the field at Amex, +1400 to make the cut..

Worth a few bucks to cheer the dude on
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Vijay last week...

Blockie this week ;).

Funny part is people either love Block or despise him. He's quite the intriguing character.
 
Outrights

Hodges 200
McCarty 140
Max Greyserman 80
Berger 75
SW Kim 50


Avoiding bogies is big this week. Birdies and pars!

Wedge play paramount/irons huge

Putting not as much. Rahm lost strokes winning here.

Ben Griffin lost all value. Henley as well.

Si Woo staying at 50 is shocking.
 
B.A.R. said:
Vijay last week...

Blockie this week ;).

Funny part is people either love Block or despise him. He's quite the intriguing character.
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People will bitch about Block being in this field, but I have a bigger problem with guys like Zach Johnson and Jason Dufner being in tournament fields.
 
Not sure if it's overthinking things, but I think Saturday is supposed to get pretty windy. Do you want to take guys who play one of the easier courses that day, or the much tougher stadium course? I can see both ways of thinking. You don't want your guy missing out on a good scoring situation by playing La Quinta or Nicklaus in bad conditions, but if they play Stadium in tough winds, maybe they blow up. Just some morning thoughts as I see that Lee Hodges is starting on Stadium today
 
gps_3 said:
Not sure if it's overthinking things, but I think Saturday is supposed to get pretty windy. Do you want to take guys who play one of the easier courses that day, or the much tougher stadium course? I can see both ways of thinking. You don't want your guy missing out on a good scoring situation by playing La Quinta or Nicklaus in bad conditions, but if they play Stadium in tough winds, maybe they blow up. Just some morning thoughts as I see that Lee Hodges is starting on Stadium today
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Interesting. That's news to me as everything i read early in the week is that winds won't be an issue.

But, weather changes so thanks for that note.
 
B.A.R. said:
Interesting. That's news to me as everything i read early in the week is that winds won't be an issue.

But, weather changes so thanks for that note.
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Maybe what I saw was either old, or relative. Just looked it up and it says Saturday may get up to 10 mph, which I assume isn't much of a problem. Disregard my earlier post
 
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