2025-26 BOWL GUIDE

bookieassassin

bookieassassin

Pretty much a regular
ONE UNIT

Hawaii +3/ML W
Arizona -1'
SDSU +3'/6/ ML W
Texas A&M -3/ML L


smaller

Oregon -1
Michigan +7' L
TCU +7/ML W
Tulane +17' L
Bama ML (OU) W
Clemson+1/ML L
ODU +3/ML W
Troy +3' L
WMU -3 W
Utah St +2 L
Houston -2 W
Army / Navy ML
GT/BYU OVER 55 L
Virginia +5 live W
Illinois ML live W


small

Iowa 1H +3' W
Texas/Michigan 1H under 24 L
Miami, F 1H +6' W
Memphis +4 L
WMU / KSU 1H under 23' L
Utah St / Wazzu 1H under 24' W
Louisville TT over 26' W
Cal/Hawaii 1H under 24' L
Hawaii +14 live W
Minny -1 live W
Army TT over 24' W
App St +10' live L
Vandy +7 live T
Ohio St +7 live




leans
*updated 12/20

Louisville?
WKU
WASHINGTON
DUKE
Vandy
Georgia (vs Ole Miss)
INDY
GT
Ducks (vs TT)
Illinois
Minny?
ECaro?
Army/ Navy
Miami,O
ULL
Hou
CMU?
LT?





FADE?

SMU - Penn St? - CAL - NCST - PITT - USF? -



WARNING:

Guys that follow me thru the years, might recall I (used) to print money in bowl season....
>> before the 2023-24 bowl season, my WORST year for top plays was 10-5 - going back about 8-9 years. Overall 71% top plays / 60% smaller.

However - that gravy train, riding along on biscuit wheels, came to an abrupt halt with all this portal/NIL crap ha....
* 2023 5-8 one unit / 23-13 smaller
* 2024 5-3 / 21-19

Last 10 years, still not too shabby
237-148 overall
* 83-40 one unit
* 154-108 smaller

SO... I doubt I hit my former numbers, hopefully I'm at least somewhere in between. I'll think I'll have time to study more than I have the past few years.


Happy Holidays boys, and BOL ...... 🎄
 
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UNDERSTANDING MOTIVATION

How do you determine if a team will be MOTIVATED? "It's so hard!"
>> No - it isn't

Peel as many layers back as you can....

What determines how you play? > PRACTICE, specifically how focused you are, the INTENSITY of your prep work . Now, what determines how you practice?

*Bowl practices are tough, everybody else is at home with their families, while YOU are outside in the freezing cold, getting ready for some shit bowl game, you could care less about...

You have to be working towards a GOAL. Has this goal been met? Has our 'story been written', or is there more work to be done? Goals meaning : just to make a bowl - to WIN a bowl - to win our conference- to win a national title.

WHERE DID WE WANT TO BE, WHEN THE SEASON BEGAN?


KEY: YOU MUST HAVE SOMETHING DRIVING YOU, THRU BOWL PRACTICES
* getting drunk, chasing P does not count .....


1) After you've established their mindset for the game, you've got to find out who TF is playing, who is coaching.

* The best source (to start) is probably the participation thread at Action Network - not comprehensive, but close. From there go to the local news, team sites, beat writers (Twitter is good).
>> don't forget, many times these days you don't really know who is playing until a few minutes before kickoff. Players can opt out late, or even OPT BACK IN (some coaches allow this BS). Sites like On3, and 247 have updated portal info. Brett McMurphy is a good follow on Twitter.


2) DOES THE COACH EVEN WANT TO WIN THIS GAME?
* That's correct, some could care less, they like the extra practices, and view this game as an exhibition, or vacation. Some feel it's extremely important to make a good showing for fans, recruits, donors...
>> consider: is the program trending UP / getting better, treading water (like the Terps/ NCST), or getting worse - IS THIS GAME IMPORTANT? - would a win be a big boost, a loss be crushing blow, kill any momentum?
ALSO - is the HC likely to leave? If the damn guy is probably gonna be gone by the time the bowl is played - better wait and see.

3) BOWL HISTORY
* What happened in their last bowl? - huge win, or get destroyed? Regression seems to be a big factor in bowls. Imagine your friends/family spend a ton of money to travel across the country- only to see your sorry azz get destroyed in the WEEDEATER BOWL by EMU...next time you will probably give a better effort (or maybe not ha)
>> Steele is a great source - last 5 bowls or so are listed right there. Team Rankings and Oddshark are fine sources as well.

4) INTANGIBLES
* travel - some teams, with money issues - will take a LONG bus ride, instead of fly, to save cash - long trips may mean few fans will be there - be aware of conference fan edge, meaning Boise fans might support a MTW team in the Potato Bowl...

* WEATHER - southern teams traveling NORTH, can be a great fade. Many northern teams seem to play/ travel well, in a southern bowl. Some northern teams have no indoor practice facility, and get little work in.
* actual number of practice days? - finals may interfere with bowl prep, THE SHAME! - gotta check.

5) MATCH-UP ISSUES
* long lay-offs may favor a strong defensive team - air raid vs tough D, might be in trouble
* teams with serious turnover issues, seem to don't get this fixed before the bowl game - avoid these.
* now is a great time to focus on: QB - D - ST - FP (field position)- turnover margin



STRATEGY

1) JUST PICK THE WINNER
* SU winner covers 85-90% of the time - only 5-6X/ year, on average.... do they not
>> LY these spreads were 6', 7, 13', 15, 19

2) $$ PLAY THE DOG ON THE ML $$
* really underrated/underused (by me esp.)
>> LY dog won outright 15X - 2023 dog won outright 19X !
** once before 12/25 - 9X in games between 12/26-30 - 5X after 12/31
** don't forget this in your bowl contests/pools

3) FOLLOW THE LINE MOVEMENT
* Don't have recent numbers, but historically it's more profitable (considerably) than to fade. Criteria is 3/4 points it seems.

4) A TEAM IS READY TO PLAY, OR IT AIN'T
* Meaning for you live/2H players - the 2H will usually look a lot like the 1H. If a team is down several scores, seldom in bowls does this team come back to win/cover, especially in the early games . LY I noticed it happened more than usual.....

5) MOMENTUM OFTEN DOES NOT CARRY OVER TO THE BOWL SEASON
* Meaning a team that worked hard to finish strong, usually after a slow start, may have achieved their goals (DONE). A team that started fast, yet finished slow - may use the bowl to COMPLETE their season.

>> FADE, OR AVOID AT ALL COSTS - THE BUBBLE BURST TEAMS > especially THE team that expected a great bowl, or play-off berth (eg Miami maybe) but got screwed. Their bowl prep is total crap. They try to flip the switch game-day, but can't.

edit: Irish were probably smart ha - rather than risk a horrible/ costly performance - they just said no thanks

6) Interim coaches don't matter as much as you think
* Numbers vary, but the teams are loose, and often play well, a 'play on' spot for awhile - don't have LY's numbers

7) Teams that won their 6th game, the final game of the season, are often a good bet
*Roughly 70% recently - higher if they were bad the year before

8) FADE THE BOWL VIRGIN
* A long wait/struggle just to REACH a bowl - usually means their goal is already met (winning one doesn't matter yet)
>> meaning a reward/vacation

9) Play, or think twice before fading - the dominant QB, playing his final game

NOTE: THESE ARE JUST TOOLS IN YOUR TOOLBOX... the most important thing is: which team 'wants it more'? In all but the later games, in which BOTH teams are motivated - this is THE handicap.
 
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Historically good bowl teams:

Play on, or don't bet against
* MINNY - Miami,O - NAVY - NW - Ohio
>> LSU - Irish - ECU - Memphis - BYU - Army - Duke - Ohio St - WKU

BAD BOWL TEAMS/COACHES
* SMU - MIAMI,F - Toledo - NCST
>> Utah(yes) - Clemson - Boise - Cal - DUCKS - Pitt


QB's playing their last game?

PAVIA / TE Stowers - HAYNES KING - Horvath (Navy) - Altmeyer -Gronowski (most wins CFB history right?) - Klubnik ? - Navarro/ RB Bangura (Ohio)



NEED A BOWL WIN !!
* lost last one, or several - and/or important for program going forward

OU - Nebraska - CLEMSON - Louisville - WF - Cinn - HAWAII! - SDSU !! - NMX - ODU - LT - VIRGINIA? - ULL

>> wouldn't hurt things: CMU - Utah St - GT - ASU - HOUSTON -S Miss - FIU
 
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HAWAII BOWL

Cal vs Hawaii - This one should open close to P - but will move towards Hawaii with lightning speed, and will close 7 or more - so don't wait (SP+ is 7 or so). Cal's season 'ended' at home, with a big EMOTIONAL victory over sorry SMU ha. They are weak in bowls anyway, and will certainly use this as a VACATION. Interim Nick Rolovich / staff -will be looking for jobs (Tosh L won't coach here) - their bowl prep will be absolute shit. (KEY) QB should play, but key guys might sit out.....maybe QB hits portal?

HAWAII? - 1st bowl under Timmy C - last bowl in 2021 was cancelled. All should play, and be highly motivated to finish an 8 win season off with a nice win over a P4 team. Line might stay down, due to Cal's history as a great road dog - but that's ONLY when motivated. Check their efforts vs SDSU, and Tree. I'll hit anything under 3


XBOX FRISCO BOWL (replacing the Bahamas Bowl on TH 12/18)

Mizz St vs Ark St

Typically you fade the BOWL VIRGIN (MSU) - as this is their 1st year in FBS - last post season game was 2021 FCS play-offs.

ASU - finished 2024 with 8 wins, then a nice W over BG in the Ventures Bowl (+9'). 2023 lost to NIU (-2') in the Camellia Bowl. SO..... how excited can they be here, to play in this weird add on bowl, vs MIZZ ST? Note fine QB is a JR*, schools all time leading WR is SR - I would wait until we see if BOTH play. HC Butch J is 5-3 SU in bowls.

>> I would lean Mizzou ST - deep dive on the match-up depending..... ASU should open as a 2'/3 point favorite - line should slowly move towards the Bears - note SP+ has MSU as a small favorite

* outstanding / dominant QB playing in his FINAL GAME ..... is usually a 'play on' (or careful if betting against) spot.
eg. match-up dependant of course - but you DO NOT want to bet against Vandy in whatever bowl they play in. Effect maybe not as strong due to BURST BUBBLE EFFECT (missing play-off). PAVIA in probably - his last important game as a QB - that SOB would give his life for a victory ha (it's his IDENTITY) > his life will never be like this - ever (probably). BTW not saying ASU QB Raynor is great of course, but he has been their offensive leader for 3 years, and has carried them several times - and thrown for over 8400 yds (#3 all time). Most surely not looking at an NFL career - so his final game (this year or next) will be huge for him.


CURE BOWL

ODU vs USF

ODU - QB Joseph will (supposedly) NOT play - in portal. BUT backup Quinn Henicle -can play, and is a great runner. Only ONE bowl win in school history - no wins under 6Y HC Rahne - lost in 2023 by 3 vs WKU (-6') - and in 2021 to Tulsa by 13 (+8'). Note a great road dog, that can RUN - solid D, but terrible ST

USF - WILL QB BYRUM BROWN PLAY? He has another year left (RS Jr) - note articles list him as graduate SR. He has 'suggested' he will play. Since this is an early game - maybe he just plays here - as he missed LY's Hawaii Bowl - then figures out his future later....

PROBLEM? - (with a play on USF) - the dreaded BURST BUBBLE EFFECT. Looking at a possible play-off bid, and would be favored over Tulane, NTX, and Duke - and on a given day could beat most anybody......POOF! they're in the stinking Cure Bowl at 5:00p on a Wed vs ODU, a short drive away. HC is gone, and will be replaced by DL coach Kevin Patrick.
 
Mind boggling insight and knowledge… 🙏🏽

As for grabbing lines and also holding out for injuries etc etc…do you leverage in? Say .25 unit x 4 along the way at different times? I’ve ready your post #2, 3 times now. 🤘🏼
 
KEY: YOU MUST HAVE SOMETHING DRIVING YOU, THRU BOWL PRACTICES
* getting drunk, chasing P does not count .....

LOL. Latter would have gotten Private Pyle through the obstacle course.
 
added small play at MB

Tulane +17'

* no deep dive, just gotta fade the Rebels - WITH COACH ABANDONING THE TEAM thing.......... who knows, they might respond the other way, and crush Tulane again, so small only


Hawaii is +2' .....I'll wait and see if I can get 3 of course, might lock in 2' small - then add to it later, including 1/2 unit on ML
 
Wolfeman said:
Mind boggling insight and knowledge… 🙏🏽

As for grabbing lines and also holding out for injuries etc etc…do you leverage in? Say .25 unit x 4 along the way at different times? I’ve ready your post #2, 3 times now. 🤘🏼
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Yep I usually do that.....

Like I'll probably play Hawaii at 2' (1/4) - wait for 3 - (3/4 unit at 3 / 0.5 ML). If it drops instead (checking all boards) - I'll hit it small again (hoping for a juiced 3 at least).
>> then if the 3 appears lost (this one shouldn't go Cal's way - unless Hawaii QB hits portal) - I'll go ahead and play the 1'/2...... 👊
 
Locking in Bama small ML ..... might add a bit later

BTW - I (try) to only use teams/bets that fit my 'motivational model'.....as one unit+ plays. This one I might risk a bit more - but post it as a smaller play.

Here I like Bama to bounce back - hopefully they get healthy (er). OU is tough at home, but that O is really bad..... Bama outgained them by 200 yds or so last time (23-21 OU win at Bama) - but 3 Bama turnovers
 
adding (maybe,) too early.....at Heritage

Arizona -1'

* fading possibly the nation's worst bowl team/ coach in SMU - off a play-off run LY - that EXPECTED to be in one this year. Zona off a 3-9 season in 2024- is much improved, especially defensively - kinda guessing that QB Fifita plays - but Zona should win anyway.... only other negative is that HC Brennan was a weak bowl coach at SJSU. Huge game here for Zona. SMU doesn't travel well.

smaller

Clemson +1

QB Klubnik has said he'll play his final game here ....fading Penn St - an impossible spot getting up AGAIN for this one - I would imagine most stars will opt out - they came back, and finished strong - their work is done. Once I get a better read on Penn St, I'll probably add to this one.
 
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too early - just small dart

Nebraska +14'

Huge for Huskers, they need a good showing here - Utes expecting much more - shoulda got a better game probably. Last Utah bowl win? 2017 - 5 straight losses ,(1-4 ats). If you play Neb. - be ready to play Utah live - not a great matchup for the Huskers, especially if HC KW announces this as his last game.
 
wiseplayer said:
Gotta love Army -3 vs UConn. Mora gone while Army is always motivated.
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yep - trying to decide how well they play vs Navy ( this line semi- dependent).... if you think they stay close, or win (me I think) - maybe play now. If you think Navy is gonna win big, maybe wait. UConn off a great W last year vs UNC - and has another big problem here - terrible run D.

edit: forgot UConn played in this SAME BOWL LY >> fade
 
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I see lean to ECU and a fade Pitt lean.....is this just a double motivation/opt out angle? A month ago on a neutral field Pitt prolly -10/11 or so imo....
 
bookieassassin said:
Locking in Bama small ML ..... might add a bit later

BTW - I (try) to only use teams/bets that fit my 'motivational model'.....as one unit+ plays. This one I might risk a bit more - but post it as a smaller play.

Here I like Bama to bounce back - hopefully they get healthy (er). OU is tough at home, but that O is really bad..... Bama outgained them by 200 yds or so last time (23-21 OU win at Bama) - but 3 Bama turnovers
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With you here my man…. Oklahoma just seems outmatched here. Especially at QB. Norman lately hasn’t been the invincible home crowd of the old days. As you mentioned…back a team that was fortunate to get in. I really like the Tide here and they may get on a little roll.

I must be missing something (always likely) but Texas A&M at home is a straight monster. I gladly grabbed that Aggies -3’ and would love your opinion as it’s in the neck of your woods… I really have a hard time believing the Hurricanes hang with TAMU in that environment come 4th quarter. Defense and QB play will show. Gig em.
Mahalo nui loa for da Bows tip…. Will be fun here locally to be backing Chang. Wild special teams advantage for UH as well. Kicker and punter are studs. Also thx for Zona. 🤙🏽

Happy Holiday Assassin! Enjoy that good bourbon down there to go along with the football…. Let’s get it.
 
Wolfeman said:
With you here my man…. Oklahoma just seems outmatched here. Especially at QB. Norman lately hasn’t been the invincible home crowd of the old days. As you mentioned…back a team that was fortunate to get in. I really like the Tide here and they may get on a little roll.

I must be missing something (always likely) but Texas A&M at home is a straight monster. I gladly grabbed that Aggies -3’ and would love your opinion as it’s in the neck of your woods… I really have a hard time believing the Hurricanes hang with TAMU in that environment come 4th quarter. Defense and QB play will show. Gig em.
Mahalo nui loa for da Bows tip…. Will be fun here locally to be backing Chang. Wild special teams advantage for UH as well. Kicker and punter are studs. Also thx for Zona. 🤙🏽

Happy Holiday Assassin! Enjoy that good bourbon down there to go along with the football…. Let’s get it.
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Miami / Aggs need a deep dive...... the problem with the Aggs, as we saw vs TEXAS - is what happens if they can't run?

I couldn't BE-lieve what I was watching, the lack of creativity reminded me of the dreaded Jimbo Fisher O..... how can you be SO predictable, if you can't block anybody - nobody can get open? QB should be on the MOVE - stop dropping him back in the pocket, like he's f'in Dan Marino (nobody looked cooler in the pocket than DM ha).....

So I lean Aggies for sure - but with Ohio State on deck (kinda sorta) - and a huge ST disadvantage (#13 > #81) - and the chance that Miami front puts Reed in the hospital early.... not sure if I wanna lay more than 3.
>> I do recall the 1st round home team edge LY. Maybe RB Moss returns??? Not sure if this one rises, or drops - looks like 3/4 is about right. I do think a (cheap) juiced 3 will be there at some point.

I think.... I'll have time to do a deep dive on every game - don't see a ton I like right now - WHY IS VANDY PLAYING IOWA!? BTW that game will probably be my largest bet (live/2H). Iowa has a nice match-up edge running the ball (OL #1 per PFF) , and should get up early - PAVIA WILL NOT LOSE THAT GAME, esp if TE plays too.

Happy Holidays buddy, all the best....🥃
 
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bookieassassin said:
too early - just small dart

Nebraska +14'

Huge for Huskers, they need a good showing here - Utes expecting much more - shoulda got a better game probably. Last Utah bowl win? 2017 - 5 straight losses ,(1-4 ats). If you play Neb. - be ready to play Utah live - not a great matchup for the Huskers, especially if HC KW announces this as his last game.
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Utah HC Kyle Whittingham announced he will be stepping down at the end of the season. Still plans to coach bowl game.
 
Busy today boys .....hopefully I can pop back in later

Lean Army / OVER probably

Strong lean Washington - will look to play live/2H
>> keep in mind in these bowls we don't (really) know who will play - until KICK-OFF - the 9/9' is probably fine, it's maybe smarter to see who plays 1st - Boise just played last week, so maybe they start fast - we get a great number live.....?

What has been said anyway - is that the roster is intact, except for one guy in the portal - he didn't say "ALL WILL PLAY".

Boise has been a weak bowl team as of late (0-4 ats / 1-3 su) - tough to get up for this one I would think.... play-offs last year > one of their weaker teams this year (SP+ #55) > then a surprise MTW title .....now another game one week later?

Washington is really an underrated team, that struggled vs elite teams (trenches mostly) - and struggled on long road trips across a few time zones. BUT note staying on the west coast, they killed Wazzu, and UCLA.

Match-up wise, Boise should really struggle to move the ball - Husky run D is tough (3.4/104) - only once did a team have more than one rushing TD. Also great in stopping rush explosives (#10) - pass too (#38). Boise D should struggle vs Husky dynamic O, allowing almost 5 yds/rush (#116), and #113 vs rush explosives (uh-oh).

Huskies are off their best recruiting year in program history, and have a #19 > #94 talent edge per cfbdepth.com (great injury site)

$$ Washington shows up focused, with most of their stars playing ? > Boise will get killed


* Don't forget - a team is ready to go, or they're not. They don't come out, really sluggish, only to POOF! find their game later on - (with incredibly rare exceptions). More so in the later games, with dominant players (like Pavia, or H King), but early games, hardly ever.
 
Rusty Trombone said:
I see lean to ECU and a fade Pitt lean.....is this just a double motivation/opt out angle? A month ago on a neutral field Pitt prolly -10/11 or so imo....
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Sorry man forgot to come back to this one.....will do more later

>> plus I was slightly annoyed you just totally IGNORED, the BA motivation model ha....

So, when you axed yourself the question: IS THIS WHERE PITT WANTED TO BE WHEN THE SEASON BEGAN? > in the Military Bowl playing a mid-tier G5 team? THIS was their season goal? Narduzzu to team : "bust your ass, listen to the coaches - I'll have you boys in a crap bowl playing East Carolina - I swear TG !!!"

That's the handicap - this ain't the regular season. ECU is a fine bowl team, and solid dog - thrilled to have a shot at PITT.

Plus this is one of Narduzzi's better teams, they were no doubt thinking play-offs, AND should have gotten a better bowl. Narduzzi is terrible in bowls, especially as a favorite - I think he beat my team EMU by a FG or so, favored by 2 TD+ (1-3/0-4 as a favorite .....2-6 su/ats overall).
>> and we just heard the idiot stand up and say he cares about ACC play/title ONLY

SP+ has this one close to P - ECU should stay close, or win outright......IMO
 
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bookieassassin said:
Sorry man forgot to come back to this one.....will do more later

>> plus I was slightly annoyed you just totally IGNORED, the BA motivation model ha....

So, when you axed yourself the question: IS THIS WHERE PITT WANTED TO BE WHEN THE SEASON BEGAN? > in the Military Bowl playing a mid-tier G5 team? THIS was their season goal? Narduzzu to team : "bust your ass, listen to the coaches - I'll have you boys in a crap bowl playing East Carolina - I swear TG !!!"

That's the handicap - this ain't the regular season. ECU is a fine bowl team, and solid dog - thrilled to have a shot at PITT.

Plus this is one of his better teams, they were no doubt thinking play-offs, AND should have gotten a better bowl. Narduzzi is terrible in bowls, especially as a favorite - I think he beat my team EMU by a FG or so, favored by 2 TD+ (1-3/0-4 as a favorite .....2-6 su/ats overall).
>> and we just heard the idiot stand up and say he cares about ACC play/title ONLY

SP+ has this one close to P - ECU should stay close, or win outright......IMO
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Thanks and sorry I disappointed you :(
 
bookieassassin said:
yep - trying to decide how well they play vs Navy ( this line semi- dependent).... if you think they stay close, or win (me I think) - maybe play now. If you think Navy is gonna win big, maybe wait. UConn off a great W last year vs UNC - and has another big problem here - terrible run D.

edit: forgot UConn played in this SAME BOWL LY >> fade
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UConn QB, #1 RB & WR out
 
bookieassassin said:
Busy today boys .....hopefully I can pop back in later

Lean Army / OVER probably

Strong lean Washington - will look to play live/2H
>> keep in mind in these bowls we don't (really) know who will play - until KICK-OFF - the 9/9' is probably fine, it's maybe smarter to see who plays 1st - Boise just played last week, so maybe they start fast - we get a great number live.....?

What has been said anyway - is that the roster is intact, except for one guy in the portal - he didn't say "ALL WILL PLAY".

Boise has been a weak bowl team as of late (0-4 ats / 1-3 su) - tough to get up for this one I would think.... play-offs last year > one of their weaker teams this year (SP+ #55) > then a surprise MTW title .....now another game one week later?

Washington is really an underrated team, that struggled vs elite teams (trenches mostly) - and struggled on long road trips across a few time zones. BUT note staying on the west coast, they killed Wazzu, and UCLA.

Match-up wise, Boise should really struggle to move the ball - Husky run D is tough (3.4/104) - only once did a team have more than one rushing TD. Also great in stopping rush explosives (#10) - pass too (#38). Boise D should struggle vs Husky dynamic O, allowing almost 5 yds/rush (#116), and #113 vs rush explosives (uh-oh).

Huskies are off their best recruiting year in program history, and have a #19 > #94 talent edge per cfbdepth.com (great injury site)

$$ Washington shows up focused, with most of their stars playing ? > Boise will get killed


* Don't forget - a team is ready to go, or they're not. They don't come out, really sluggish, only to POOF! find their game later on - (with incredibly rare exceptions). More so in the later games, with dominant players (like Pavia, or H King), but early games, hardly ever.
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absoiletely nailed this one brotha… thanks. I had some UW -10 and piled on again at HT. Well played. Pavia ML looks cherry and great looks on Hawkeyes early with the run…hope for 13-7 Iowa at half. Looking hard at Memphis, and what’s with Delaware hitting the Deep South and ULL. Lines a little fishy. Ga Tech’s nice with those points and King. But wish it wasn’t against the stormin Mormons and Bear.

I still haven’t ruled out hopping over to Honolulu for the Bows game… really want to win that one over CAL.

Keep the whisky flowing and best of luck this season. Washington was a great start.
 
Wolfeman said:
absoiletely nailed this one brotha… thanks. I had some UW -10 and piled on again at HT. Well played. Pavia ML looks cherry and great looks on Hawkeyes early with the run…hope for 13-7 Iowa at half. Looking hard at Memphis, and what’s with Delaware hitting the Deep South and ULL. Lines a little fishy. Ga Tech’s nice with those points and King. But wish it wasn’t against the stormin Mormons and Bear.

I still haven’t ruled out hopping over to Honolulu for the Bows game… really want to win that one over CAL.

Keep the whisky flowing and best of luck this season. Washington was a great start.
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busy all day unfortunately...... small stuff on Army, + Navy +3' live + over (oops) / Huskies -6' live
>> can't believe UW best players actually showed up - Huskies need to spend some money on that OL

** also a great example of a very solid bowl 'rule' - to those that bet Boise to come back and be competitive 2H.......NO! - it doesn't happen in bowls, with rare exception. If a game is CLOSE - and teams are evenly matched - sure. But if one is clearly dominant - it won't suddenly flip 2H. In the regular season Boise might fight 2H - not in bowls (season is over - party time)
 
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I’ve usually been the sucker who thinks the better team is going to smash second half to make up for the weak first half performance…great insight and seems to keep coming true. Same with the winner will cover the spread wisdom
 
bookieassassin said:
busy all day unfortunately...... small stuff on Army, + Navy +3' live + over (oops) / Huskies -6' live
>> can't believe UW best players actually showed up - Huskies need to spend some money on that OL

** also a great example of a very solid bowl 'rule' - to those that bet Boise to come back and be competitive 2H.......NO! - it doesn't happen in bowls, with rare exception. If a game is CLOSE - and teams are evenly matched - sure. But if one is clearly dominant - it won't suddenly flip 2H. In the regular season Boise might fight 2H - not in bowls (season is over - party time)
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GREAT advice here
 
Wolfeman said:
I’ve usually been the sucker who thinks the better team is going to smash second half to make up for the weak first half performance…great insight and seems to keep coming true. Same with the winner will cover the spread wisdom
Click to expand...

It's hard to explain - probably because there are no hard/fast rule....
>> I used to keep up with this every year, for about 10 years+ - and was shocked at the consistency.

EARLY crap bowls? - never, not without a dominant player (final game) or crazy turnovers. Typically maybe 2-3X over a few years....
>> Later, meaningful games? - occasionally


eg.

Jax St is running all over Troy 1H (great RB) - Troy can't do anything - halftime score is 21-7 >> play is JSU, or nothing.

Game is even mostly - JSU is running well (RB is healthy) - maybe Troy is up 17-10 at the half due to turnovers >> this is different, JSU is a consideration for sure

>> Iowa is killing Vandy - running like crazy - score is 28-3 at the half - "see I knew DP was overrated, plus an asshole !!!!!!" >> bet your car on Vandy - house if Eli Stowers is playing..... ha

Miami D is dominating A&M early (might happen BTW)- Aggies are sluggish, and appear not ready to play >> it's a play-off game, I would expect Aggs to come back - history says Canes choke down the stretch

Ole Miss is crushing Tulane from the start >> seems like this is Ole Miss or nothing? here you might back off / even consider a play on Tulane - as this is Jake R's last game, and Rebels have Georgia on deck
>> maybe Tulane has the upper hand early - do you load up on Ole Miss to come back to win/cover? PROBABLY .....I'm surely wrong, but I don't know if I would TRUST the Rebels here - this coach abandoning us thing, is uncharted ground ...Wave (should) get mashed, but an outright win would not shock me, at all.

TEXAS, is crushing Michigan early - Horn OL is protecting well >> zero play on Michigan live/2H
>> Michigan is jumping on Texas early WTF! (no shock btw) >> I have no idea.... lean Texas to come back for sure (how can Michigan hold up for 4Q?) - but with the great BIFF POGGI, a weird Michigan victory would not surprise me at all..... plus don't forget Texas is at least a semi- burst bubble team, their goal is play-offs/ national title.
 
bookieassassin said:
Sorry man forgot to come back to this one.....will do more later

>> plus I was slightly annoyed you just totally IGNORED, the BA motivation model ha....

So, when you axed yourself the question: IS THIS WHERE PITT WANTED TO BE WHEN THE SEASON BEGAN? > in the Military Bowl playing a mid-tier G5 team? THIS was their season goal? Narduzzu to team : "bust your ass, listen to the coaches - I'll have you boys in a crap bowl playing East Carolina - I swear TG !!!"

That's the handicap - this ain't the regular season. ECU is a fine bowl team, and solid dog - thrilled to have a shot at PITT.

Plus this is one of Narduzzi's better teams, they were no doubt thinking play-offs, AND should have gotten a better bowl. Narduzzi is terrible in bowls, especially as a favorite - I think he beat my team EMU by a FG or so, favored by 2 TD+ (1-3/0-4 as a favorite .....2-6 su/ats overall).
>> and we just heard the idiot stand up and say he cares about ACC play/title ONLY

SP+ has this one close to P - ECU should stay close, or win outright......IMO
Click to expand...
ECU QB Katin Houser ruled out Saturday vs. Pitt
 
bookieassassin said:
It's hard to explain - probably because there are no hard/fast rule....
>> I used to keep up with this every year, for about 10 years+ - and was shocked at the consistency.

EARLY crap bowls? - never, not without a dominant player (final game) or crazy turnovers. Typically maybe 2-3X over a few years....
>> Later, meaningful games? - occasionally


eg.

Jax St is running all over Troy 1H (great RB) - Troy can't do anything - halftime score is 21-7 >> play is JSU, or nothing.

Game is even mostly - JSU is running well (RB is healthy) - maybe Troy is up 17-10 at the half due to turnovers >> this is different, JSU is a consideration for sure

>> Iowa is killing Vandy - running like crazy - score is 28-3 at the half - "see I knew DP was overrated, plus an asshole !!!!!!" >> bet your car on Vandy - house if Eli Stowers is playing..... ha

Miami D is dominating A&M early (might happen BTW)- Aggies are sluggish, and appear not ready to play >> it's a play-off game, I would expect Aggs to come back - history says Canes choke down the stretch

Ole Miss is crushing Tulane from the start >> seems like this is Ole Miss or nothing? here you might back off / even consider a play on Tulane - as this is Jake R's last game, and Rebels have Georgia on deck
>> maybe Tulane has the upper hand early - do you load up on Ole Miss to come back to win/cover? PROBABLY .....I'm surely wrong, but I don't know if I would TRUST the Rebels here - this coach abandoning us thing, is uncharted ground ...Wave (should) get mashed, but an outright win would not shock me, at all.

TEXAS, is crushing Michigan early - Horn OL is protecting well >> zero play on Michigan live/2H
>> Michigan is jumping on Texas early WTF! (no shock btw) >> I have no idea.... lean Texas to come back for sure (how can Michigan hold up for 4Q?) - but with the great BIFF POGGI, a weird Michigan victory would not surprise me at all..... plus don't forget Texas is at least a semi- burst bubble team, their goal is play-offs/ national title.
Click to expand...
Does this mean you lean Jax St. over Troy, or is it just an example? 🤔
 
SP+ numbers - after week 14
* offense / defense / ST

Recall not adjusted for injuries - here very useful for ST, and as a starting place for O/D, or of course if both teams close to full strength
>> where do you avoid Army? - are their losses worth 16-17 points?
2nd rd play-off numbers are close enough for both (OU/Bama - A&M/Mia)



Tuesday, December 16th

VETERANS Bowl
Troy -1
9:00 pm. ET
Jax State
T- 83-89-56
J- 61-113-125

Wednesday, December 17th

CURE Bowl
Old Dominion
5:00 pm. ET
South Florida -9'
O- 41-52-133
U- 19-59-76

68 VENTURES Bowl
Louisiana -2
8:30 pm. ET
Delaware
L- 76-117-104
D- 72-127-98

Thursday, December 18th

XBOX Bowl
Missouri St -1
9:00 pm. ET
Arkansas St
M- 81-109-112
A- 99-105-65

Friday, December 19th

MYRTLE BEACH Bowl
Kennesaw St -1
11:00 am. ET
Western Michigan
K- 66-81-102
W- 110-46-98

GASPARILLA Bowl
Memphis -7
2:30 pm. ET
NC State
M- 17-71-17
N- 47-72-120

PLAYOFF 1St ROUND
Alabama
8:00 pm. ET
Oklahoma -1'
A- 22-6-100
O- 52-3-21

Saturday, December 20th

PLAYOFF 1St ROUND
James Madison
7:30 pm. ET
Oregon -17
J- 25-25-91
O- 13-5-40

PLAYOFF 1St ROUND
Tulane
3:30 pm. ET
Mississippi -17
T- 35-69-11
M- 9-19-5

PLAYOFF 1St ROUND
Miami, FL
12:00 pm. ET
Texas A&M -3
M- 18-10-13
T- 8-22-81

Monday, December 22nd

IDAHO POTATO Bowl
Washington St -3
2:00 pm. ET
Utah St
W- 98-29-62
U- 51-92-117

Tuesday, December 23rd
BOCA RATON Bowl
Toledo
2:00 pm. ET
Louisville -3
T- 73-19-103
L- 41-30-35

NEW ORLEANS Bowl
WKU -6
5:30 pm. ET
Southern Miss
W- 58-80-24
S- 67-102-107

FRISCO Bowl
UNLV -10'
9:00 pm. ET
Ohio
U- 14-87-58
O- 88-67-129

Wednesday, December 24th

HAWAII Bowl
California
8:00 pm. ET
Hawaii -7
C- 87-75-82
H- 75-65-8

Friday, December 26th

GAMEABOVE SPORTS Bowl
Central Michigan
1:00 pm. ET
Northwestern -7'
C- 115-55-87
N- 99-38-15


RATE Bowl
New Mexico -1
4:30 pm. ET
Minnesota
N- 70-66-15
M- 92-44-124

FIRST RESPONDER Bowl
FIU
8:00 pm. ET
UTSA -8'
F- 69-114-97
U- 39-95-47

Saturday, December 27th

MILITARY Bowl
Pittsburgh -1
11:00 am. ET
East Carolina
P- 33-51-58
E- 35-54-86

PINSTRIPE Bowl
Penn St -6
12:00 pm. ET
Clemson
P- 21-31-7
C- 57-25-31

FENWAY Bowl
Connecticut -8'
2:15 pm. ET
Army
C- 32-69-18
A- 102-52-78

POP-TARTS Bowl
Georgia Tech
3:30 pm. ET
BYU -9'
G- 29-62-6
B- 20-20-49

ARIZONA Bowl
Miami, OH
4:30 pm. ET
Fresno St -2'
M- 104-53-12
F- 96-43-70

NEW MEXICO Bowl
North Texas -11
5:45 pm. ET
San Diego St
N- 1-68-63
S- 101-16-1

GATOR Bowl
Virginia
7:30 pm. ET
Missouri -4
V- 49-23-44
M- 32-13-109

TEXAS Bowl
LSU -2
9:15 pm. ET
Houston
L- 90-9-60
H- 53-41-96

Monday, December 29th

BIRMINGHAM Bowl
Georgia Southern
2:00 pm. ET
Appalachian St -1
G- 66-131-85
A- 93-120-37

Tuesday, December 30th

INDEPENDENCE Bowl
Coastal Carolina
2:00 pm. ET
Louisiana Tech -13
C- 91-129-80
L- 77-70-80

MUSIC CITY Bowl
Tennessee -4
5:30 pm. ET
Illinois
T- 6-61-31
I- 36-42-39

ALAMO Bowl
USC -9
9:00 pm. ET
TCU
U- 12-35-116
T- 37-49-94

Wednesday, December 31st

RELIAQUEST Bowl
Iowa
12:00 pm. ET
Vanderbilt -3'
I- 48-7-25
V- 4-33-9

SUN Bowl
Arizona St
2:00 pm. ET
Duke P
A- 71-36-128
D- 23-91-57

CITRUS Bowl
Michigan
3:00 pm. ET
Texas -1'
M- 50-12-125
T- 38-17-36

LAS VEGAS Bowl
Nebraska
3:30 pm. ET
Utah -15
N- 60-40-73
U- 11-21-71

COTTON Bowl PLAYOFF
A&M/Miami
7:30 pm. ET
Ohio St -10'

Thursday, January 1st

ORANGE Bowl PLAYOFF
Oregon
12:00 pm. ET
Texas Tech -3

ROSE Bowl PLAYOFF
Ala/OU
4:00 pm. ET
Indiana -10'

SUGAR Bowl PLAYOFF
Ole Miss
8:00 pm. ET
Georgia -1

Bowl Game Schedule Friday, January 2nd

ARMES FORCES Bowl
Rice
1:00 pm. ET
Texas St -14'
R- 119-104-46
T- 19-123-72

LIBERTY Bowl
Navy
4:30 pm. ET
Cincinnati -2
N- 27-89-43
C- 39-64-52

MAYO Bowl
Wake Forest -1
8:00 pm. ET
Mississippi St
W- 83-34-69
M- 42-76-26

HOLIDAY Bowl
Arizona -1'
8:00 pm. ET
SMU
A- 26-24-115
S- 24-32-102

Thursday, January 8th

FIESTA Bowl PLAYOFF
TBD
7:30 pm. ET
TBD

Friday, January 9th

PEACH Bowl PLAYOFF
TBD
7:30 pm. ET
TBD

Monday, January 19th

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
 
VETERANS Bowl

Troy -1
9:00 pm. ET
Jax State

T- 83-89-56
J- 61-113-125

First look is to TROY, 2Y HC, off a 4-8 in 2024 - last bowl 2023. JSU off one of their best years ever (9-5 /CUSA title). Coach left, took everybody with him, only 3/3 starters - overachieved this year by a large margin - their goals have been met, and surpassed.

2nd look is also to TROY - SB team vs CUSA.

>> BOTH should be focused here, I give a slight edge to Troy (maybe)


MATCHUP seems to favor JSU here. Dominant group here is JSU running game (great RB, and QB) vs a weak Troy run D (strong vs pass). Troy O is horrible, their only hope is to hit a few pass explosives vs a JSU team weak in that regard. Note JSU O #1 in rush explosives, vs Troy D (#98). JSU (should) run all day ...... but Troy can get penetration (#37) - JSU OL vulnerable (#118). Troy has a huge ST edge (#56 > #125)..... key in bowls.


QUESTIONS:

Will JSU great RB (Cam Cook) even play? - he's the nation's leading rusher (TCU transfer) - ZERO shock, if POOF! he's out**. Will Troy QB play? Everybody says no, but Troy says he will probably start. Not too much difference anyway vs backup (banged up Goose / Gilcrease).

Troy does in fact stink - on paper. BUT we just saw them get outgained AT a margin motivated JMU by 200+, yet stay within 3 in the 4Q. They played an EVEN game at Clemson (up 16-3 at the half) - 3 TO's made it look worse. They whipped Texas State on the road 48-41 (TSU D slightly worse than JSU). They won at S Miss, by 10.....

$ I don't like anything pre-game.....bowl pools I picked Troy to win / low certainty. Both play semi-fast (#50ish), so OVER is maybe a lean live - if JSU RB / Troy QB play. JSU should move the ball for sure, I would expect Troy to keep pace (somehow). JSU is not a bad 1H team, they do seem to be stronger 2H (6.2 vs 4.8/rush). Troy is better 1H
>> so I'll look for a live play on JSU if set up, OVER if Troy is moving the ball - might play Troy 1H or 1Q - JSU seems like a popular play, might wait for a late ML play on Troy.



** I double-dog dare ha.....ANYONE to pop in and say " OH - they said he will definitely play !!!!!" Yes I know that - but as we've seen, a guy can even go thru the warm-ups, then BAM! - he's out. In these 'meaningless' games - I would consider any likely portal, or NFL guy to be doubtful, until we see them on the field. An injury could cost them a ton of money.
 
bookieassassin said:
Locking in Bama small ML ..... might add a bit later

BTW - I (try) to only use teams/bets that fit my 'motivational model'.....as one unit+ plays. This one I might risk a bit more - but post it as a smaller play.

Here I like Bama to bounce back - hopefully they get healthy (er). OU is tough at home, but that O is really bad..... Bama outgained them by 200 yds or so last time (23-21 OU win at Bama) - but 3 Bama turnovers
Click to expand...
The O that threw for over 300 and 2 TD's last time out? that one?
 
spider87 said:
The O that threw for over 300 and 2 TD's last time out? that one?
Click to expand...

Talking about that super focused LSU team, that just beat WKU by 3 at home? that one?

Got a case to make - MAKE IT

FACT: Mateer until recently, was one of the lowest rated passers in the nation- after his injury - Sooners can't run (#108), and still are #93 yds/play. They just played Alabama (game we're talking about) - and managed a whopping 4.2/play - 212 TO. Mateer not terrible, but did nothing. Last SEVEN games, he's thrown for SIX TD/SEVEN INT - including 3 in that Heisman like performance vs LSU.

What's different NOW? Is he healthy - finally? How will the Sooners POOF! - be able to move the ball this time? Let us know.
 
Last edited:
adding dumb play smaller

ODU +3/ML

*dumb because I waited too long - damn lines are moving faster than I thought.....pretty tough running dog, USF might (still) have too much? - I'll play small, and look to add to it live (or buy back if USF seems to be taking control. Regardless - winner should cover in this one.
 
UNT QB Drew Mestemaker ruled out vs SDST. I don't know if you needed any additional motivation for backing SDST, but this is a call to run to the window to bet them as a dog before it moves closer to PK imo.
 
Without RB Cook - I won't bet JSU live/2H....
>> I'm probably wrong, but added to Troy at 7, and 3' .....like the way their D chasing the ball - Offense not too disgusting

JSU forced to throw, is a big edge to Troy D - much better vs the pass, also #30 in sacks
 
Last edited:
bookieassassin said:
Without RB Cook - I won't bet JSU live/2H....
>> I'm probably wrong, but added to Troy at 7, and 3' .....like the way their D chasing the ball - Offense not too disgusting
Click to expand...
I was just about to ask about Jax St. 2H....dang okay, I'll lay off. Felt like Troy had some lucky bounces in the 1H but you're prob right to lay off
 
mykzaub=n said:
I was just about to ask about Jax St. 2H....dang okay, I'll lay off. Felt like Troy had some lucky bounces in the 1H but you're prob right to lay off
Click to expand...

Not 100% - but what's the rule man....

If we can say that Troy is in command - (arguable for sure) - JSU ain't flipping the game , without a dominant player. They might keep it close, but probably won't win - greater chance IMO that Troy extends the margin
>> note JSU is all run - they have 21 yards at the half (1.5/rush)
 
mykzaub=n said:
I was just about to ask about Jax St. 2H....dang okay, I'll lay off. Felt like Troy had some lucky bounces in the 1H but you're prob right to lay off
Click to expand...

OOPS.....

Forgot - it's best to view the 'rule' as more of an EFFORT/ dialed in thing'. Kinda looked like to me, that Troy had the upper hand, but nothing wrong with JSU's effort/focus at all....maybe I'll just follow you next time...
 
bookieassassin said:
OOPS.....

Forgot - it's best to view the 'rule' as more of an EFFORT/ dialed in thing'. Kinda looked like to me, that Troy had the upper hand, but nothing wrong with JSU's effort/focus at all....maybe I'll just follow you next time...
Click to expand...
wolf-of-wall-street-no.gif
You're the GOAT! Don't speak such blasphemy. I know the whole “public” angle is overplayed and doesn’t really affect the actual game outcome, but something I still think about—especially with these lower‑tier bowl games—is when one team gets an overwhelming amount of public support. And when it’s the dreaded “public dog,” it gives me pause if that was the side I was leaning toward.

Troy fit that narrative yesterday, which is why I only played their 1H ML and was planning to back Jax St. in the second half. But I trust your judgment on these spots more than any of the other trends or nuances. There’s a lot of variance in these bowl games, so don’t sweat it. On to today’s slate!
 
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