2024 Teed Memorial Flex Scheduling Discussion

[Gandolf]

We're coming up on prime flex season and our old friend @guaranteeed always enjoyed flex scheduling discussions and predictions. Let's make this a robust thread through the end of the year.

I'll start with the NFL's rules on flexing:

• Sunday afternoon games can be moved between the 1 p.m. and 4 p.m. windows.
• The league can flex games to Sunday Night Football twice in Weeks 5 through 10, and during Weeks 11 through 17, they can flex games “at the NFL’s discretion.”
• The NFL can flex games to Monday Night Football in Weeks 11 through 17 at its discretion.
• Thursday Night Football will be available in flex scheduling on a trial basis in 2024. The league can flex games to Thursday night up to twice between Weeks 13-17.
• If your team is on the schedule for Sunday Night Football, Monday Night Football, or Thursday Night Football during those flexible scheduling windows, the NFL considers all of those games “tentative” because of flex scheduling.
• Only Sunday afternoon games or games listed as “TBD” can be flexed to SNF, MNF or TNF. So you can’t flex a Thursday night game to Sunday night, and so on.
• As usual, the schedule for Week 18 of the 2024 season won’t be finalized until Week 17 concludes.
• The league has to give 12 days’ notice when flexing a game to Sunday or Monday night in Weeks 5 through 13 for SNF and Weeks 12 through 17 for MNF.
• For Sunday Night Football, Weeks 14 through 17, the decision must be made at least six days prior to a game being flexed.
• For Thursday Night Football, Weeks 13 through 17, the NFL will announce the decision at least 28 days before the game.

 

[Gandolf]

Thursday night schedule Weeks 13-17

Week 13 (11/29 Fri) - LV vs KC - No way they move Mahomes out of this spot.
Week 14 (12/5) - GB vs Det - as good as you can get
Week 15 (12/12) - LAR vs SF - looks promising at this point
Week 16 (12/29) - Cle vs Cin - looking like a prime flex candidate
Week 17 (12/26 Boxing Day, another Teed favorite) - Sea vs Chi - would think this still has the playoff implications to stay

SNF Weeks 11-17

Week 11 - IND vs NYJ - ugh, they'd need to move this by next Monday which might be too soon. Haven't we seen enough Jets games already?
Week 12 - PHI vs LAR - should be safe now that LA has its weapons back
Week 13 - SF vs BUF - a beauty
Week 14 - LAC vs KC - another good one
Week 15 - GB vs SEA - not going to move this one either
Week 16 - TB vs DAL - Bucs will be alive and Dallas gets eyeballs, not getting moved - CHANGED TO MAYBE
Week 17 - MIA vs CLE - woof, this one looks like it should be replaced

MNF Weeks 11-17

Week 11 - Hou vs Dal - not moving the battle of Texas
Week 12 - Bal vs LAC - good matchup
Week 13 - Cle vs Den - maaaaybeeee. Depends on how Denver looks. Hate to keep picking on Cleveland but the league misjudged their prospects.
Week 14 - Cin vs Dal - Burrow vs the Star, this isn't moving no matter their records
Week 15 - Chi vs Min (ABC) and Atl vs LV (ESPN) double header - ABC game is a winner, I think that keeps the latter game on the schedule
Week 16 - NO vs GB - Packers another popular team, Saints could be sniffing around division, Saturday doubleheader limits the options too.
Week 17 - Det vs SF - like last years Det-Dal Week 17 Saturday night tilt, this one will be HIGHLY anticipated

 

[Gandolf]

Teams with 5 or more prime time games - The NFL only allows teams to have 6 prime time games per season. They a strict with the rule and strict with the definition. KC for example, has a standalone Christmas game on Netflix and a Saturday game on Amazon but because they're in the afternoon they don't count as prime time.

Jets - 6 (all by Week 11)
Dal - 6
SF - 6

KC - 5
Balt - 5
GB - 5 (four in a row Weeks 13-16)
Det - 5
LAR - 5

 

[B.A.R.]

I doubt Jets Colts is moved.

They can't get enough.

Please tell me we are done with NYG primetime??

 

[B.A.R.]

Thursday Dec 5th will be one of the best TNF games left.

 

[CPA-hole]

Seems like a logistical nightmare to flex a Thursday game.

 

[Gandolf]

Week 11 Indy/Jets is shaping up to be a matchup of two below .500 teams with two ancient QBs. But what's out there to replace it?

Packers at Bears would feature two teams that should be over .500 (Bears get NE next week), but that's also 3rd vs 4th in the NFC North. Plus those 4 straight Packer prime time games coming up should give the league pause.

There's really only one choice, and they're starting to hint on the local CBS affiliate about losing their favorite team's game: Baltimore at Pittsburgh. A battle of the top two games in the AFC North, and a matchup that Tirico and Collinsworth always seem to relish. It'll be the fourth Steeler home game in prime time which is pretty unusual, but would the league really try to slip past with yet another Jets game?

This one needs to be announced by Tuesday.

 

[B.A.R.]

Week 11 Indy/Jets is shaping up to be a matchup of two below .500 teams with two ancient QBs. But what's out there to replace it?]

Packers at Bears would feature two teams that should be over .500 (Bears get NE next week), but that's also 3rd vs 4th in the NFC North. Plus those 4 straight Packer prime time games coming up should give the league pause.

There's really only one choice, and they're starting to hint on the local CBS affiliate about losing their favorite team's game: Baltimore at Pittsburgh. A battle of the top two games in the AFC North, and a matchup that Tirico and Collinsworth always seem to relish.

This one needs to be announced by Tuesday.

You think they get rid of a Jets game?

I would agree if they had lost last week but man they covet these things!

 

[B.A.R.]

Teams with 5 or more prime time games - The NFL only allows teams to have 6 prime time games per season. They a strict with the rule and strict with the definition. KC for example, has a standalone Christmas game on Netflix and a Saturday game on Amazon but because they're in the afternoon they don't count as prime time.

Jets - 6 (all by Week 11)
Dal - 6
SF - 6

KC - 5
Balt - 5
GB - 5 (four in a row Weeks 13-16)
Det - 5
LAR - 5

I missed the definition part when you posted this.

Does this mean Thanksgiving Dallas and Detroit games do not count?

 

[Gandolf]

You think they get rid of a Jets game?

I would agree if they had lost last week but man they covet these things!

It all really depended on the available options, and it looks like the league has a much more attractive one this time. If it were against the Bills or Chiefs I'd say no but the Colts really add nothing to the equation. Also, since the Giants are on bye that week the time change works for the NY area. It should make too much sense for even Goodell to pass up.

 

[Gandolf]

I missed the definition part when you posted this.

Does this mean Thanksgiving Dallas and Detroit games do not count?

They don't count as I understand it.

 

[B.A.R.]

It all really depended on the available options, and it looks like the league has a much more attractive one this time. If it were against the Bills or Chiefs I'd say no but the Colts really add nothing to the equation. Also, since the Giants are on bye that week the time change works for the NY area. It should make too much sense for even Goodell to pass up.

Makes sense.

 

[Gandolf]

The one thing that might make it tricky is Steelers at Browns is the week 12 Thursday night game and that's locked in. BUT, there are few shorter road trips than Pittsburgh to Cleveland. Is 7 hours lost a deal breaker? Eagles play at Dallas next week at 4:30 then play the following Thursday night. That's only a few hours better with longer travel. I can't imagine the league has any untouchable scheduling situations anymore after the last 4 years.

 

[Gandolf]

UPSET ALERT - Chargers and Bengals flexed to SNF in week 11. Burrow vs Herbert. Should be fun. Guess the Sunday night to Thursday night is a no go. Bengals might be 4-6 by then but whatever.

 

[B.A.R.]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1855828328428503304

 

[Gandolf]

Week 12 cruises along as scheduled, shouldn't hear anything from the league in the next 24 hours.

Week 13 options to replace Cleveland-Denver on MNF: MNF hits a stretch of games from Weeks 13-16 that suddenly have lost a bit of luster. Gotta take them one at a time though.

The Thanksgiving holiday puts a limit on the options, but there's a few that could be in play.

6-4 Arizona at 7-2 Minnesota is the best matchup record-wise. Kyler has cache still and right now only 3 teams in the league have a better record than the Vikings. The problem is if Fox loses this game it really gives them a terrible set of Sunday games. Would assume they get the Cle-Den but that's a 4:05 start. They can move Tampa/Carolina back up to 1 pm, but the two games that leaves Fox at 1 pm are Tampa/Carolina and Seattle/Jets. Yikes. Trading one awful scheduling block for an even worse one is not good policy.

Next option is 6-3 Chargers at 6-4 Atlanta from CBS. This one can get moved and still leaves CBS with Pittsburgh/Cincinnati as the main early game, not bad. But this does put the Chargers on MNF back to back weeks since they're on Week 12 as well. It may or may not be a first time for that.

Or CBS can give up Pittsburgh/Cincinnati and keep Chargers/Atlanta. But then that puts the Bengals on MNF back to back Weeks 13-14. The league could flip out the Bengals Week 14 game at Dallas and put in 6-4 Atlanta at 7-2 Minnesota; I discounted that originally but after seeing them without Dak that might be on the table now. To me this makes the most sense, which means it's probably least likely.

Last option is for MNF football to run a rebroadcast of one of the Cleveland/Denver AFC championship games from the 80s. The way this season is going that would have my vote.

 

[Gandolf]

All that said....Denver still has the #7 seed in the AFC and plays Atlanta next week. If they win the league might just keep them in MNF.

 

[B.A.R.]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1858589291204546729

 

[Gandolf]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1858589291204546729

Priorities

 

[Gandolf]

Time is sneaking up on that 28 day announcement requirement for week 16 TNF between Cle and Cin.

Choices appear limited to 3 games:

Philly/Wash, currently at 1:00 pm FOX
Min/Sea, currently at 4:05 pm FOX
Denv/LAC, currently at 4:05 pm FOX

Keep in mind that the Sunday nighter is getting worse by the minute with Tampa 4-6 and Dallas 3-7 both sliding.

Philly/Wash was just on TNF this week, so I doubt Amazon will pick up the rematch. It would be a strong flex for SNF.

Denv/LAC makes sense, although it will be the 4th Charger prime time game between 11/17 and 12/22 which is a lot of exposure. Minn/Sea may or may not be viable depending on how Seattle does against Arizona and Green Bay in coming weeks.

 

[B.A.R.]

Time is sneaking up on that 28 day announcement requirement for week 16 TNF between Cle and Cin.

Choices appear limited to 3 games:

Philly/Wash, currently at 1:00 pm FOX
Min/Sea, currently at 4:05 pm FOX
Denv/LAC, currently at 4:05 pm FOX

Keep in mind that the Sunday nighter is getting worse by the minute with Tampa 4-6 and Dallas 3-7 both sliding.

Philly/Wash was just on TNF this week, so I doubt Amazon will pick up the rematch. It would be a strong flex for SNF.

Denv/LAC makes sense, although it will be the 4th Charger prime time game between 11/17 and 12/22 which is a lot of exposure. Minn/Sea may or may not be viable depending on how Seattle does against Arizona and Green Bay in coming weeks.

Oh man, Tampa and Dallas HAS to go.

I can't with this Cowboys team this year.

It would be one thing if the offense was humming -- just not happening.

Cincy could possibly go 4-2 to end the year. Maybe steal one Pitt game and get near that 7th seed. Still, tough matchup. Why did the league schedule Cleveland that late in the year?

 

[B.A.R.]

Do you think Bills - Lions gets flexed at all? I'm assuming NO since it's 4:25 already.

They (Det) do play consecutive Thursday games before the Buffalo encounter.

 

[B.A.R.]

Teams with 5 or more prime time games - The NFL only allows teams to have 6 prime time games per season. They a strict with the rule and strict with the definition. KC for example, has a standalone Christmas game on Netflix and a Saturday game on Amazon but because they're in the afternoon they don't count as prime time.

Jets - 6 (all by Week 11)
Dal - 6
SF - 6

KC - 5
Balt - 5
GB - 5 (four in a row Weeks 13-16)
Det - 5
LAR - 5

So we're all done with the Jets? Phew.

I see what the league did there.

 

[Gandolf]

Do you think Bills - Lions gets flexed at all? I'm assuming NO since it's 4:25 already.

They (Det) do play consecutive Thursday games before the Buffalo encounter.

I'd say no. It looks like week 15 is a dual doubleheader Sunday, with Pitt/Philly as the FOX 4:25 game and Buffalo/Detroit at 4:25 on CBS. Gonna be a great time to use the double box on YoutubeTV. There's also a Monday night doubleheader that week.

 

[B.A.R.]

I'd say no. It looks like week 15 is a dual doubleheader Sunday, with Pitt/Philly as the FOX 4:25 game and Buffalo/Detroit at 4:25 on CBS. Gonna be a great time to use the double box on YoutubeTV. There's also a Monday night doubleheader that week.

Oh that's right, the MNF double dip. That's easily the best 4:25 slate all year.

 

[CPA-hole]

Broncos/Charges flexed to Thursday night in Week 16

 

[Gandolf]

Props to Cleveland for showing out yesterday in a prime-time spot. Between the game and the weather it was quite the night. League looking better for keeping the Jameis vs. Bo matchup on Prime Time on Week 13 MNF.

 

[B.A.R.]

Broncos/Charges flexed to Thursday night in Week 16

Solid!

JH Chargers with the solid primetime exposure in late fall.

 

[B.A.R.]

Anything on the horizon @Gandolf ?

 

[Gandolf]

Week 14 is set

Week 15 was not predicted to have any changes

Week 16 already had Broncos/Chargers replace Brown/Bengals on TNF (although Jameis and Burrow will be highly entertaining). Tampa/Dallas on SNF is getting more interesting each week with Tampa tied for division lead and Dallas with two more winnable games coming that could get them to 7-7 (shhhh). Minn-Seattle is getting relegated to 4:05 currently. Would be a great replacement for NO-GB on MNF. Will have to see if that plays out.

Week 17 SNF game of Miami/Cleveland should certainly be flexed. Options are Cards/Rams, Packers/Vikings and Falcons/Commanders. All depends on what kind of weather Tirico wants.

Week 18 SNF game options are becoming clearer:
- Top choice would be Minnesota/Detroit if it is a battle for HFA
- The NFC West games are in play as a win or go home possibility
- I'm holding out a slim candle of hope that Washington/Dallas could still be for the last playoff spot in the NFC. Dallas would need to beat Cincy, Carolina and Tampa to get to 8 wins (beating the Eagles seems like no chance). Washington needs to lose two of three to NO, Phi and Atl to be 9-7. Atlanta would need to win the South, and the West would have to break just right with SF losing 2 of 5, Arizona and the Rams at least losing the right 2 of 5 and/or a Seattle collapse (not impossible looking at their schedule). NBC would be all over that one if it comes to pass.

 

[Gandolf]

Well get your chores done on Sunday because TNF should be a cracker and then the Saturday doubleheader has top billing for the week going head to head with the CFP. Rest your clicker thumb boys, its gonna get a workout. MNF got stuck with Saints-Packers, bleh.

Still waiting on push out of Mia-Cle for week 17 SNF. Would be kinda shocked if it is not Packers/Vikings, although Cards/Rams would fit the bill and honestly would you rather be in Minnesota between Xmas and New Years or sunny LA?

Week 18 looking very strong for Minnesota/Detroit on SNF, especially as a win-or-go-home scenario in either conference is looking less likely. Could be HFA and division title on the line.

 

[twinkie13]

I guess it’ll give me a reason to drink on a Monday but how did they not move Saints/GB

 

[Gandolf]

Miami/Cleveland was pushed out of week 17 SNF in favor of Falcons/Commanders. The way Tirico kept bringing up Lions/Vikings week 18 I'd say its 90%+ that that game will be the last Sunday nighter. Only other option would need LA Rams to lose next week to set up a win or go home matchup with Seattle week 18. But would NBC really take that over two 14-2 teams colliding?

 

[B.A.R.]

Miami/Cleveland was pushed out of week 17 SNF in favor of Falcons/Commanders. The way Tirico kept bringing up Lions/Vikings week 18 I'd say its 90%+ that that game will be the last Sunday nighter. Only other option would need LA Rams to lose next week to set up a win or go home matchup with Seattle week 18. But would NBC really take that over two 14-2 teams colliding?

Detroit SNF almost guaranteed.

Hawks and Rams at 4:25 a beautiful precursor.