2024 CFB

Thought I'd be adding a lot more TTs (Gators, Sooners, Washington and Boilers under, Penn State and Army over) but nothing quite made the grade. Also, trying to keep my 330 slate light intentionally since we're hosting birthday party for our two year-old today. I'm gonna be pushing booze on all of the guests from the outset so that I can get em outta here by 7 and retire to the basement for Bucks/Ducks on one tv, Ole Miss/LSU on another and Vols/Gators on the third. BOL to everybody today!
 
Week 7
1* Northwestern/Maryland over 45' WINNER
1* Clemson/Wake Forest over 60 WINNER
1* Army -26 WINNER
1* Georgia Tech TT over 31' (-115) WINNER
1* Mississippi State/Georgia under 55 (-105) LOSER
1* Tennessee 1H -7' (-125) LOSER
1* UCLA 1H +3 WINNER
1* Kansas State/Colorado over 56' WINNER
1* Boise/Hawaii over 61 LOSER

6-3 +2.6u week

20-17-1 +1.65u YTD

A few thoughts:
- All three of the losses (Miss St/UGA under, Vols 1H, Boise/Hawaii over) were bad picks and never had a chance.
- Very surprised by how flat UT was in the 1H (and all game, frankly) so will have to consider that I've overestimated them and probably still biased from the winnings they brought me early in the season. And the Gators absolutely have not quit on Napier.
- Mississippi St/UGA had almost 1,000 yards of offense and the teams combined to go 5-5 on 4th down. I wasn't able to watch much of the game but safe to say I was just way off.
- For Boise/Hawaii, it takes two to make an over and Hawaii never had the offense or the interest to keep up (only 127 plays total between the teams) and Hawaii held the ball for almost half the game to put up 279 total yards and only 15 rushing yards. Safe to say that their focus was on preventing Jeanty from putting up video game numbers against them even if it meant never really competing to win the game.
- Army and UCLA 1H were easy winners (very pleased I went with UCLA 1H rather than game, as those who took +4 full game got a push), and GT TT over and Clemson/Wake over were relatively comfortable winners.
- K State/Colorado over needed 3 TDs in the final 6:44 and NU/Maryland over was pretty fortunate in that it took a Terps INT returned to deep in their territory to set the Mildcats up for the TD that got the over home. So, pretty fortunate with both of those. Phew.
 
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Week 8
1* Oregon/Purdue over 60
1* Houston/Kansas under 47'
1* USC/Maryland over 56'
1* Iowa -6
1* Kentucky ML (-115)
1* Georgia/Texas over 56
 
Week 8
1* Florida State/Duke 1H under 20' LOSER
1* Oregon/Purdue over 60 LOSER
1* UConn TT over 27' (-115)
1* Indiana TT over 30' (+100)
1* Oklahoma TT under 20' (+100)
1* Miami/Louisville over 61
1* Houston/Kansas under 47'
1* Notre Dame/Georgia Tech under 49
1* USC/Maryland over 56'
1* Texas Tech -6 (-118)
1* Ball State/Vandy over 58' (-104)
1* Iowa -6
1* Kentucky ML (-115)
1* Georgia/Texas over 56
 
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1* Indiana TT over 30' (+100)
1* Oklahoma TT under 20' (+100)
1* Miami/Louisville over 61
1* Texas Tech -6 (-118)
1* Ball State/Vandy over 58' (-104)
 
Week 8
1* Florida State/Duke 1H under 20' LOSER
1* Oregon/Purdue over 60 LOSER
1* UConn TT over 27' (-115) LOSER
1* Indiana TT over 30' (+100) WINNER
1* Oklahoma TT under 20' (+100) WINNER
1* Miami/Louisville over 61 WINNER
1* Houston/Kansas under 47' LOSER
1* Notre Dame/Georgia Tech under 49 WINNER
1* USC/Maryland over 56' WINNER
1* Texas Tech -6 (-118) LOSER
1* Ball State/Vandy over 58' (-104) LOSER
1* Iowa -6 LOSER
1* Kentucky ML (-115) LOSER
1* Georgia/Texas over 56 LOSER

5-9 -5.02u Week 8

25-26-1 -3.37u season to date
 
Really kicking myself for not jumping on Michigan State +6' and Washington +8' at open. I was greedy and hoping for +7 on Sparty and indecisive on UW given IU QB situations. Lost opportunities on both.
 
BiffTFinancial said:
Really kicking myself for not jumping on Michigan State +6' and Washington +8' at open. I was greedy and hoping for +7 on Sparty and indecisive on UW given IU QB situations. Lost opportunities on both.
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Yeah said same thing about the 5.5 I saw with Sparty. Didn't make sense to me.
 
Week 9
1* Louisville/BC over 53
1* Boise/UNLV over 65
1* Ohio State TT over 35' (-120)
1* Notre Dame/Navy 1H over 26' (-115)
1* Illinois +21'
1* Mizzou/Bama 1H under 27
1* BG/Toledo under 49' (-108)
1* ML parlay: UCF + Iowa (+103)
1* Michigan State +5 (-108)
1* Miami -21
1* Texas A&M TT under 27'
1* Cincinnati +6' (-105)
1* Wazzu -14
 
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B.A.R. said:
I can definitely see 17-3 or so.
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That would be great. With the QB injuries/limitations, I'm thinking both offenses will be pretty one-dimensional and the clock will be rolling early. If Brady Cook were healthy and the Mizzou offense were looking like it did last year, I'd be concerned for what they could do against Bama secondary but Drew Pine under center makes me much more comfortable.
 
CPA-hole said:
Already jumped on 37.5 here. GL this weekend.
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Thank you, you too. I'm expecting 37.5 when it becomes available to me. Like the game over but don't trust Huskers and off the loss to Ducks then the bye, I'm expecting the Buckeyes to take out some frustration and hang 40+.
 
Week 9
1* Louisville/BC over 53 WINNER
1* Boise/UNLV over 65 LOSER
1* Ohio State TT over 35' (-120) LOSER
1* Notre Dame/Navy 1H over 26' (-115) WINNER
1* Illinois +21' LOSER
1* Mizzou/Bama 1H under 27 WINNER
1* BG/Toledo under 49' (-108) LOSER
1* ML parlay: UCF + Iowa (+103) LOSER
1* Michigan State +5 (-108) LOSER
1* Miami -21 WINNER
1* Texas A&M TT under 27' LOSER
1* Cincinnati +6' (-105) LOSER
1* Wazzu -14 LOSER

4-9 -5.91u

29-35-1 -9.28u YTD

Two bad weeks in a row, bah. OSU TT, Illinois, UCF, Wazzu were bad picks. OSU OL issues take their TTs from being a great option to untouchable. The BG/Toledo game was wild, definitely an outlier type of performance. A&M TT under looked great with Weigman at QB, they were right to switch to Reed (and he didn't really even throw). Thank goodness Cristobal was able to get the cover for Miami but other than that the winners were pretty solid (I mean, there were only a couple...). Onward and upward.
 
Other leans - no rush on most given where prices are now:
OSU/PSU 1H under 22'
Arkansas +7
Vandy +7 (not sure I want to sweat out a public dog at Jordan Hare, though)
Minnesota/Illinois over 45'
UCLA +6'
Oregon 1H -7'
Navy -11 (trying to get injury update on Horvath)
Washington +3 (currently -120)
 
BiffTFinancial said:
Week 10
1* Tulane/Charlotte over 56
1* Wisconsin/Iowa over 40'
1* Louisville/Clemson over 63
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I’m def looking at that Clemson over but might be more Klubnick props for me, whenever a team can push Clemson to have to score klubnick is looking very good imo, much more confident than he was. This sub kids need to stay and play! I think be time his career over he be able to step in and run a nfl team, unlike these kids like AR who combine warriors w 13 whole starts in college! Lol
 
2daBank said:
I’m def looking at that Clemson over but might be more Klubnick props for me, whenever a team can push Clemson to have to score klubnick is looking very good imo, much more confident than he was. This sub kids need to stay and play! I think be time his career over he be able to step in and run a nfl team, unlike these kids like AR who combine warriors w 13 whole starts in college! Lol
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Yeah, if you had told me the day after the UGA game that Klubnick would look this good in October, I'd have said "October of what year?"
 
You know you're running cold when you post 3 totals in the morning and by the afternoon 2 have moved 1.5 away from you. On the other hand, Wisky/Iowa up to 41'!
 
BiffTFinancial said:
Yeah, if you had told me the day after the UGA game that Klubnick would look this good in October, I'd have said "October of what year?"
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Lol, no kidding!! He has made great strides. Every now and then his mechanics get loose and he misses a wide open shot but more and more he seems to be building confidence and doesn’t let one of those bring him down.
 
BiffTFinancial said:
You know you're running cold when you post 3 totals in the morning and by the afternoon 2 have moved 1.5 away from you. On the other hand, Wisky/Iowa up to 41'!
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Honestly It suck’s getting worse of number but think I win more when line goes against me! Wouldn’t worry bout, trust your numbers! You a good capper, I’m baffled by some these lines and moves every week but if I let them bother me It just screws me up
 
Mensah ov 187.5 passing feels low: of course fir this to hit Charlotte d has to slow down the run game
 
2daBank said:
Honestly It suck’s getting worse of number but think I win more when line goes against me! Wouldn’t worry bout, trust your numbers! You a good capper, I’m baffled by some these lines and moves every week but if I let them bother me It just screws me up
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Thanks for the kind words, man. A lot of movement has to do with when services release their plays - one of the reasons that I booked these this morning is a number of services release on Thursday and I didn't want to get the worst of the numbers. So far as numbers moving against you and not paying too much attention, you're right - the best example I can think of recently is when Michigan went from -3' to -6 vs Illinois late in the week but never had a chance of covering during the game. I'd have been beyond pissed if I'd laid points with UM there.
 
I was going to be on over tonight regardless, line movement just allowed me to get a better number than this morning so played the waiting game as I see it getting into the 60s.

GL tonight
 
KJ said:
I was going to be on over tonight regardless, line movement just allowed me to get a better number than this morning so played the waiting game as I see it getting into the 60s.

GL tonight
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That would bode well for mensah ov 187.5. Really just comes down to can char slow down run and hang enough points to keep Tulane throwing? Feel like given the chance he easily be around 220-230
 
2daBank said:
That would bode well for mensah ov 187.5. Really just comes down to can char slow down run and hang enough points to keep Tulane throwing? Feel like given the chance he easily be around 220-230
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I don't cap props, you know that at this point homey. Tulane defense were on the field for 80 plays against UNT 5 days ago, that I do know.
 
Week 10
1* Tulane/Charlotte over 56 LOSER
1* OSU/Penn State 1H under 23'
1* Ole Miss TT under 30' (+110)
1* Syracuse +4
1* UCLA +7 (-115)
1* Oregon 1H -7'
1* Mississippi State TT over 38' (-120)
1* Iowa TT over 21'
1* Wisconsin/Iowa over 40'
1* Louisville/Clemson over 63
 
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