BringInTheLefty
Pretty much a regular
Just 23 days until the Run For The Roses
I’ve narrowed my contenders to four
I won’t have my top pick & saver until post positions have been drawn
Forte & Tapit Trice are both quality horses trained by Pletcher but will only be used in the place,show & 4th positions on all my tickets
Two Phil’s:
This run away winner of the Jeff Ruby Steaks is likely to get overlooked by the wagering public as 6 weeks will have gone by since that victory and many other contenders coming off more recent efforts will command more attention.
In addition, winning on the synthetic surface will create some additional dismissal.
he is one of the few horses in here that has run two 9-furlong preps. Couple that with his excellent balanced Energy Distribution Profile and his heavy route breeding and added ground here is of no concern. The Risen Star set up with an extreme early hot pace and he was the only horse tracking that heat that held on to hit the board. This is the opposite of the extremely slow pace Always Dreaming had to overcome in his prep.
Derma Sotogake:
He comes into this race fresh from the UAE Derby
Which is run at the distance of 1900 meters which falls 33 feet short of a true 9.5 furlongs distance. In viewing the replay, both the meters remaining in the race and the clock were running simultaneously so one could easily isolate the fractions at each traditional point of call. For Derma Sotogake, who won wire-to-wire, his estimated fractions in the UAE Derby were as follows: 48 3/5; 1:13 2/5; 1:38; 1:55 4/5. To compare, the winner of the La Derby, Kingsbarns, ran a similar slow early/fast late race shape going close to the same 9.5 furlongs distance and his fractions were 49 3/5; 1:14 3/5; 1:39; 1:57 1/5. Without considering differences in racing surface variants, the estimated BRIS Pace/Speed Rating figures for Derma Sotogake were derived below. We also looked at the fractions Havnameltdown ran in the Saudi Cup with Derma Sotogake tracking several lengths behind that runner and it served to confirm that those figures shown below in the UAE Derby are close to accurate. He ran that last 3/16ths in the UAE Derby in :17 4/5 seconds versus the :18 1/5 submitted by Kingsbarns in the La Derby. Given the slightly shorter distance of the UAE Derby, that :17 4/5 would be adjusted to :18...so that was a very fast final 3/16ths. We do know this horse is loaded with stamina having won twice before at 9 furlongs and the 9.5 furlongs of the UAE Derby. His breeding shouts stamina. He owns a very fluid stride which makes him tactical as he can win on the lead or sitting off the pace. He fits the Kentucky Derby winning profile quite well.
Practical Move:
The coming out party for this colt was the G2 Los Alamitos Futurity in which he ran his lifetime top and did so via an excellent running line
He was given time and then
came back to win a very tough edition of the San Felipe Stakes coupling a BRIS Late
Pace figure of 107 with a Speed Rating figure of 102. His Santa Anita Derby win was aided by a clean rail trip and when he was collared by both Mandarin Hero and 95 Skinner he found another gear and fought on valiantly for the nose win.
His running line coming
out of that Santa Anita Derby is still quite impressive as he moved early into the fastest part of the race using up some valuable energy but kept on showing more in the tank.
He’ll be forwardly placed into the moderate Derby pace which will be an advantage.
Skinner:
This stamina-rich colt sired by Curlin has paired two strong prep races showing
forward movement in each of his last 3 starts. Form cycle analysis is signaling another forward move here of at least two points.
Thanks to his strong turn of foot, he was able to finish 3rd into less-than-ideal pace set ups and he is closing the gap on
Practical Move who defeated him in his last two races, but with more ground here he may just turn the tables on that foe who may have some distance questions to answer
His score of 96% tops all other long shots in this field. Those double 100+ Late Pace
figures, foundation, form progression, pace/speed figure configurations plus many other criteria are all green.
I’ve narrowed my contenders to four
I won’t have my top pick & saver until post positions have been drawn
Forte & Tapit Trice are both quality horses trained by Pletcher but will only be used in the place,show & 4th positions on all my tickets
Two Phil’s:
This run away winner of the Jeff Ruby Steaks is likely to get overlooked by the wagering public as 6 weeks will have gone by since that victory and many other contenders coming off more recent efforts will command more attention.
In addition, winning on the synthetic surface will create some additional dismissal.
he is one of the few horses in here that has run two 9-furlong preps. Couple that with his excellent balanced Energy Distribution Profile and his heavy route breeding and added ground here is of no concern. The Risen Star set up with an extreme early hot pace and he was the only horse tracking that heat that held on to hit the board. This is the opposite of the extremely slow pace Always Dreaming had to overcome in his prep.
Derma Sotogake:
He comes into this race fresh from the UAE Derby
Which is run at the distance of 1900 meters which falls 33 feet short of a true 9.5 furlongs distance. In viewing the replay, both the meters remaining in the race and the clock were running simultaneously so one could easily isolate the fractions at each traditional point of call. For Derma Sotogake, who won wire-to-wire, his estimated fractions in the UAE Derby were as follows: 48 3/5; 1:13 2/5; 1:38; 1:55 4/5. To compare, the winner of the La Derby, Kingsbarns, ran a similar slow early/fast late race shape going close to the same 9.5 furlongs distance and his fractions were 49 3/5; 1:14 3/5; 1:39; 1:57 1/5. Without considering differences in racing surface variants, the estimated BRIS Pace/Speed Rating figures for Derma Sotogake were derived below. We also looked at the fractions Havnameltdown ran in the Saudi Cup with Derma Sotogake tracking several lengths behind that runner and it served to confirm that those figures shown below in the UAE Derby are close to accurate. He ran that last 3/16ths in the UAE Derby in :17 4/5 seconds versus the :18 1/5 submitted by Kingsbarns in the La Derby. Given the slightly shorter distance of the UAE Derby, that :17 4/5 would be adjusted to :18...so that was a very fast final 3/16ths. We do know this horse is loaded with stamina having won twice before at 9 furlongs and the 9.5 furlongs of the UAE Derby. His breeding shouts stamina. He owns a very fluid stride which makes him tactical as he can win on the lead or sitting off the pace. He fits the Kentucky Derby winning profile quite well.
Practical Move:
The coming out party for this colt was the G2 Los Alamitos Futurity in which he ran his lifetime top and did so via an excellent running line
He was given time and then
came back to win a very tough edition of the San Felipe Stakes coupling a BRIS Late
Pace figure of 107 with a Speed Rating figure of 102. His Santa Anita Derby win was aided by a clean rail trip and when he was collared by both Mandarin Hero and 95 Skinner he found another gear and fought on valiantly for the nose win.
His running line coming
out of that Santa Anita Derby is still quite impressive as he moved early into the fastest part of the race using up some valuable energy but kept on showing more in the tank.
He’ll be forwardly placed into the moderate Derby pace which will be an advantage.
Skinner:
This stamina-rich colt sired by Curlin has paired two strong prep races showing
forward movement in each of his last 3 starts. Form cycle analysis is signaling another forward move here of at least two points.
Thanks to his strong turn of foot, he was able to finish 3rd into less-than-ideal pace set ups and he is closing the gap on
Practical Move who defeated him in his last two races, but with more ground here he may just turn the tables on that foe who may have some distance questions to answer
His score of 96% tops all other long shots in this field. Those double 100+ Late Pace
figures, foundation, form progression, pace/speed figure configurations plus many other criteria are all green.
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