2023 Kentucky Derby

In the Lexington, Disarm if he wins or places makes the Derby. If he shows, that will give him 46 points and most likely qualities for the Derby. Anything else and he doesn't.

Fairly certain, I will have more about the Derby later tonight, or 100% certain on Sunday. It all depends on the success of today's wager results.
 
Can't get the pdf to upload right now but here's the top twenty-five points leaders:

Rank Points Horse Trainer
1 190 Forte Todd Pletcher
2 160 Practical Move Tim Yakteen
3 154 Angel of Empire Brad Cox
4 150 Tapit Trice Todd Pletcher
5 123 Two Phils Larry Rivelli
6 105 Lord Miles Saffie Joseph Jr
7 100 Derma Sotogake Hidetaka Otanashi
8 100 Kingsbarns Todd Pletcher
9 64 Raise Cain Ben Colebrook
10 60 Rocket Can William Mott
11 60 Hit Show Brad Cox
12 57 Confidence Game Keith Desormeaux
13 56 Perrier Yoichi Kuroiwa
14 54 Verifying Brad Cox
15 54 Sun Thunder Kenny McPeek
16 50 Wild On Ice Joel Marr
17 50 Mage Gustavo Delgado
18 46 Blazing Sevens Chad Brown
19 46 Disarm Steve Asmussen
20 45 Reincarnate Tim Yakteen
21 45 Jace’s Road Brad Cox
22 45 Skinner John Shirreffs
23 45 Cyclone Mischief Dale Romans
24 32 Brave Emperor (IRE) Archie Watson
25 30 Continvar (JPN) Yoshite Yahag

Sure hope I remember how to get the pdf to work here as there's a lot more information.
 
There was also a stakes winner from OP who captured a spot as well with a win and you're in the Preakness but right now, the horses name escapes me.

You're welcome. The more people share, the better our chances are to cash an exotic ticket or two.
 
The draw for the 2023 Kentucky Derby will take place on the Monday before the Kentucky Derby on Sat. May 6. The draw is crucial as betting lines will shift depending on where certain horses start, notably the No. 1 and the furthest outside positions.
 

Wins-by-post-position trends​

  • Post No. 5 boasts the most Kentucky Derby winners with 10 (11%), most recently Always Dreaming in 2017. Posts No. 10 (nine winners) and No. 15 (six winners) are the next two most successful starting positions for the Kentucky Derby.
  • Post No. 17 has never produced a Kentucky Derby winner since the starting gate was introduced in 1930, however, due to race dropouts No. 17 has had only 42 starts. With that in mind, No. 6 is also a bad starting position with only two wins in 91 starts (2.2%).
  • Drawing the rail in post No. 1 is challenging but not impossible, as it’s produced eight Derby champions – the last being Ferdinand in 1986. However, drawing one of the four inside gates isn’t advantageous, with gates No. 1 through No. 4 ranging in win percentages between 5.5 and 8.8 and the last winner out of those first four gates coming in 2010 (Super Saver).
  • The longest Derby drought between winners is post No. 14 which last boasted a winner in 1961 (Carry Back) and has only claimed two champs in 66 starts (3%).
Found this on another site, thought it might be useful.
 

In-the-money finishes by post position trends​

  • Gate No. 10 has handed out the most money at the Kentucky Derby, with 24 horses finishing in the money in 84 starts (28.6%). However, the last horse to win, place, or show from No. 10 was Paddy O'Prado, finishing third way back in 2010.
  • Posts No. 2 (25 ITM in 91 starts) and No. 5 (22 ITM in 91 starts) are the next most profitable Kentucky Derby starting positions in terms of finishers in the money, but No. 13 boasts 19 ITM horses in only 74 starts for a higher ITM percentage (25.7%).
  • The lowest percent of horses finishing in the money comes out of gate No. 17 with only three ITM in 42 starts (7.1%). However, No. 6 has just 13 ITM results in 91 overall starts (14.3%).
  • Post No. 9 has only four Kentucky Derby winners over 87 starts but has seen 17 horses finish in the money in those races (19.5%), most recently Firing Line with a second-place run against eventual Triple Crown winner American Pharoah in 2015.
Found this on another site, thought it might be useful.
 
Weather should be a part of your analysis. Be it sunny, rainy, no/low wind, wind gusts, etc. Listed below is a weather site for Churchill downs, currently they are saying there's a 47% chance of rain in the six o'clock hour.


As Derby Day draws closer, they normally have 15 minute breakdowns.

Some horses run better, and others worse, on wet tracks (surface) similar to some people like one flavor of ice cream over another - it is what it is. Those whom have more experience than myself would tell you it's breeding/a bloodline thing, that's nice but at this point all I need to remember is some do better on wet surfaces than others.
 
While looking over my data/stats I noticed somethings that stood out to me.

Since 2001 the Kentucky Derby winner:
1. Has had only one back-to-back Key Prep Race win (2016 & 2017, both from they Florida Derby which they won). This lowers the chances of any horse coming into the race from the Jeff Ruby Stakes (last years massive winner Rich Strike).

2. Only once has a horse finished fifth or worse and won the Kentucky Derby. This is interpreted as stating the horses are competitive.

3. Six times prepped in the Florida Derby. The last was in 2017.

4. Five times prepped in the Santa Anita Derby. The last was in 2020.

5. Four times prepped in the Arkansas Derby. The last was in 2019 (awarded the win via disqualification).

6. Two times prepped in the Tampa Bay Derby. The last was in 2010.

7. Two times prepped in the Wood Memorial Stakes. The last was in 2003.
 
The Tote Board’s Win Odds

In horse racing the one thing the overwhelming majority of people want to do is make money. One of the greatest tools for this task is the tote board - it’s that large paneling inside the track in the infield that contains sets of numbers and a view screen. Today I will focus solely on the win odds.

In horse racing, one of the easiest wagers to make is a win wager. You can pick your choice by any method you want, be it by the horse’s name, the trainer, color, jockey etc. Each horse has a corresponding saddle cloth (number) upon it. That number is represented on the tote board under win odds (or a similar name) with some kind of fraction (odds) that reflect who the public thinks will win the race based upon money wagered on that choice. The more money on a choice, the lower the odds. Many people will select only one horse to win, which is fine, but I am a believer that if one has more options you have a better chance to cash your ticket at the end of the race.

What do the Odds mean? How much will I get paid if my ticket is correct? Those are the most common questions asked and listed below is the answer (prices are listed in the $2.00 format):

1/9 odds have a 90.01% chance to win and pay $2.20
1/5 odds have a 83.33% chance to win and pay $2.40
2/5 odds have a 71.43% chance to win and pay $2.80
1/2 odds have a 66.67% chance to win and pay $3.00
3/5 odds have a 62.50% chance to win and pay $3.20
4/5 odds have a 55.56% chance to win and pay $3.60
1/1 odds have a 50.00% chance to win and pay $4.00
6/5 odds have a 45.45% chance to win and pay $4.40
7/5 odds have a 41.67% chance to win and pay $4.80
3/2 odds have a 40.00% chance to win and pay $5.00
8/5 odds have a 38.46% chance to win and pay $5.20
9/5 odds have a 35.71% chance to win and pay $5.60
2/1 odds have a 33.33% chance to win and pay $6.00
5/2 odds have a 28.57% chance to win and pay $7.00
3/1 odds have a 25.00% chance to win and pay $8.00
7/2 odds have a 22.22% chance to win and pay $9.00

4/1 odds have a 20.00% chance to win and pay $10.00
9/2 odds have a 18.18% chance to win and pay $11.00
5/1 odds have a 16.67% chance to win and pay $12.00
6/1 odds have a 14.29% chance to win and pay $14.00
7/1 odds have a 12.50% chance to win and pay $16.00
8/1 odds have a 11.11% chance to win and pay $18.00

9/1 odds have a 10.00% chance to win and pay $20.00
10/1 odds have a 9.09% chance to win and pay $22.00
11/1 odds have a 8.33% chance to win and pay $24.00
12/1 odds have a 7.69% chance to win and pay $26.00
13/1 odds have a 7.14% chance to win and pay $28.00



14/1 odds have a 6.67% chance to win and pay $30.00
15/1 odds have a 6.25% chance to win and pay $32.00
16/1 odds have a 5.88% chance to win and pay $34.00
17/1 odds have a 5.56% chance to win and pay $36.00
18/1 odds have a 5.26% chance to win and pay $38.00

19/1 odds have a 5.00% chance to win and pay $40.00
20/1 odds have a 4.76% chance to win and pay $42.00
21/1 odds have a 4.55% chance to win and pay $44.00
22/1 odds have a 4.35% chance to win and pay $46.00
23/1 odds have a 4.17% chance to win and pay $48.00

24/1 odds have a 4.00% chance to win and pay $50.00
25/1 odds have a 3.85% chance to win and pay $52.00
26/1 odds have a 3.70% chance to win and pay $54.00
27/1 odds have a 3.57% chance to win and pay $56.00
28/1 odds have a 3.45% chance to win and pay $58.00

29/1 odds have a 3.33% chance to win and pay $60.00
30/1 odds have a 3.23% chance to win and pay $62.00
31/1 odds have a 3.13% chance to win and pay $64.00
32/1 odds have a 3.03% chance to win and pay $66.00
33/1 odds have a 2.94% chance to win and pay $68.00

34/1 odds have a 2.86% chance to win and pay $70.00
35/1 odds have a 2.78% chance to win and pay $72.00
36/1 odds have a 2.70% chance to win and pay $74.00
37/1 odds have a 2.63% chance to win and pay $76.00
38/1 odds have a 2.56% chance to win and pay $78.00

39/1 odds have a 2.50% chance to win and pay $80.00
40/1 odds have a 2.44% chance to win and pay $82.00
41/1 odds have a 2.38% chance to win and pay $84.00
42/1 odds have a 2.33% chance to win and pay $86.00
43/1 odds have a 2.27% chance to win and pay $88.00

44/1 odds have a 2.22% chance to win and pay $90.00
45/1 odds have a 2.17% chance to win and pay $92.00
46/1 odds have a 2.13% chance to win and pay $94.00
47/1 odds have a 2.08% chance to win and pay $96.00
48/1 odds have a 2.04% chance to win and pay $98.00

49/1 odds have a 2.00% chance to win and pay $100.00
50/1 odds have a 1.96% chance to win and pay $102.00
51/1 odds have a 1.92% chance to win and pay $104.00
52/1 odds have a 1.89% chance to win and pay $106.00
53/1 odds have a 1.85% chance to win and pay $108.00



54/1 odds have a 1.82% chance to win and pay $110.00
55/1 odds have a 1.79% chance to win and pay $112.00
56/1 odds have a 1.75% chance to win and pay $114.00
57/1 odds have a 1.72% chance to win and pay $116.00
58/1 odds have a 1.69% chance to win and pay $118.00

59/1 odds have a 1.67% chance to win and pay $120.00
60/1 odds have a 1.64% chance to win and pay $122.00
61/1 odds have a 1.61% chance to win and pay $124.00
62/1 odds have a 1.59% chance to win and pay $126.00
63/1 odds have a 1.56% chance to win and pay $128.00

64/1 odds have a 1.54% chance to win and pay $130.00
65/1 odds have a 1.52% chance to win and pay $132.00
66/1 odds have a 1.49% chance to win and pay $134.00
67/1 odds have a 1.47% chance to win and pay $136.00
68/1 odds have a 1.46% chance to win and pay $138.00

69/1 odds have a 1.43% chance to win and pay $140.00
70/1 odds have a 1.41% chance to win and pay $142.00
71/1 odds have a 1.39% chance to win and pay $144.00
72/1 odds have a 1.37% chance to win and pay $146.00
73/1 odds have a 1.35% chance to win and pay $148.00

74/1 odds have a 1.33% chance to win and pay $150.00
75/1 odds have a 1.32% chance to win and pay $152.00
76/1 odds have a 1.30% chance to win and pay $154.00
77/1 odds have a 1.28% chance to win and pay $156.00
78/1 odds have a 1.27% chance to win and pay $158.00

79/1 odds have a 1.25% chance to win and pay $160.00
80/1 odds have a 1.23% chance to win and pay $162.00
81/1 odds have a 1.22% chance to win and pay $164.00
82/1 odds have a 1.20% chance to win and pay $166.00
83/1 odds have a 1.19% chance to win and pay $168.00

84/1 odds have a 1.18% chance to win and pay $170.00
85/1 odds have a 1.16% chance to win and pay $172.00
86/1 odds have a 1.15% chance to win and pay $174.00
87/1 odds have a 1.14% chance to win and pay $176.00
88/1 odds have a 1.12% chance to win and pay $178.00

89/1 odds have a 1.11% chance to win and pay $180.00
90/1 odds have a 1.10% chance to win and pay $182.00
91/1 odds have a 1.09% chance to win and pay $184.00
92/1 odds have a 1.08% chance to win and pay $186.00
93/1 odds have a 1.06% chance to win and pay $188.00



94/1 odds have a 1.05% chance to win and pay $190.00
95/1 odds have a 1.04% chance to win and pay $192.00
96/1 odds have a 1.03% chance to win and pay $194.00
97/1 odds have a 1.02% chance to win and pay $196.00
98/1 odds have a 1.01% chance to win and pay $198.00

99/1 odds have a 1.00% chance to win and pay $200.00

Most tote boards only have the capacity for displaying double-digit odds. Odds higher than 99/1 do come in (win) now and then, but when they do they had less than a 1.00% chance of winning. If you’re willing to risk your money on a less than 1% chance of winning, I wish you luck.

By looking at the above odds, you can now see why it’s possible to pick multiple horses to win and still make a profit. There is also a method/way to wager to make a certain dollar amount of profit from win wagers but this is not the time or the place for that.

By all means, this is not a be all end all process/method for selections but made to inform people that there are many ways to wager the Kentucky Derby and this is one that allows a profit if you’ve selected the winning horse and not surpass the total of 100% (think multiple horse choices/picks/selections).

Good luck with your selections.

Thought the above was a good read, saved it and sharing it here.
 
Track Conditions

It’s been stated many times by many people that a horse won (didn’t) because of the track’s conditions and/or the pedigree (breeding) of the horse. That’s not what this is going to be about,
so if you’re looking for that skip to the next article.

For the rest of us, here are some things one should know so you’ll have a better understanding (or a refresher) of the terms the track uses to describe the surface of the course. Since the Kentucky Derby is run over the dirt, I will only explain what those terms mean. Sorry turf and synthetic surfaces, this is not the time nor place to explain them. The terms used describe the amount of moister held by the course’s surface.

Let’s start with FAST.
• This term is used when the track is dry.
• The term has nothing to do with the speed of the racetrack.
• A fast (dry) track can produce slow times, and a wet track can produce fast times.

Good
• This term is used for a track that is nearly fast and drying out from rainfall.

Wet Fast
• This term is used when a track has water on the surface (from fresh rainfall) that hasn’t had time to sink in and effect the base (of the track).

Sloppy
• This term is used when the track is similar to a wet fast surface with the key difference there is moister in the base.

Muddy
• This term is used to mean once the base is meaningfully wet. Think of a drinking cup, it can only hold so much liquid, when more is added it overflows. For the track’s surface that translates to seeing puddles of water around the track.

Heavy
• While this term isn’t widely used anymore, it means a slow and tiring heavily affected by rain surface.

Slow
• This term means the track has moister in the base, but with some surface drying.
• The term has nothing to do with the speed of the racetrack.

Frozen
• Because the Sport of Kings is an outdoor event and it does snow, get cold and form ice in some parts of the world sometimes the dirt freezes do to the cold temperatures.
• Similar to the term heavy, is rarely used anymore in modern racing (old PP’s could have those terms listed by the race)

Sealed
• This term is used in conjunction with off-track labels, such as “sloppy (sealed)” or “wet fast (sealed)," to indicate a dirt track compacted by machinery to seal out moisture and reduce the amount of water reaching the base.


Multiple sources were used to identify, confirm and reconfirm the track’s terms and explanation, I put in what I feel is the easiest way to educate/inform others to give them a fighting chance to put together a series of tickets that hopefully, for them, will be cash positive - no sense in wagering $100 and getting only $30 back, you might as well flush it down the toilet or give it to a worthy charity.

This is not a be all end all process/method for selections but made to inform people that there are many ways to wager the Kentucky Derby and this is one aspect that some, including this person, use to aid in making (hopefully) cash positive wagers.

Good luck with your selections.

Thought the above was a good read, saved it and sharing it here.
 
Size and shape of a horses hoof has an effect on how it performs on an off track. A bigger flatter hoof tends to "pancake" and hit more surface area which is stickier leading them to get more tired the longer the race. A smaller more concave hoof the horse tends to skip over the surface incurring less drag or friction.
 
Da Hoss said:
Size and shape of a horses hoof has an effect on how it performs on an off track. A bigger flatter hoof tends to "pancake" and hit more surface area which is stickier leading them to get more tired the longer the race. A smaller more concave hoof the horse tends to skip over the surface incurring less drag or friction.
Click to expand...
Would you happen to know a website that could provide that information?
 
B.A.R. said:
I did the Derby 2012-2014 and it was sooooo awesome, even in the 2013 downpour.

Great memories. I fell in love 50 times minimum that first year, goodness.
Click to expand...
How exciting for you! I've yet to experience that on Derby Day but have seen live races there when I was younger. I'm hoping to make it up there once this Covid crap stops spreading.
 
TodaysWinners said:
Would you happen to know a website that could provide that information?
Click to expand...
I don't...its more by observation of the horses on the track.

I will dig up an excel spreadsheet that analyzes successful factors of predicting Ky Derby winners. Altho it hasnt been great the past few years.

Attached is Stanley Caris model of factors. I dont use them all bc some factors leave nearly every horse eligible based on it.
 

Attachments

Just looking at PPs only Jaces Road has a real subpar efforts on an off-going of those that have run.

But looking at the weather forecast for next Saturday, we should be ok.
 
Da Hoss said:
I don't...its more by observation of the horses on the track.

I will dig up an excel spreadsheet that analyzes successful factors of predicting Ky Derby winners. Altho it hasnt been great the past few years.

Attached is Stanley Caris model of factors. I dont use them all bc some factors leave nearly every horse eligible based on it.
Click to expand...
Thank you for sharing that attachment/file. There's a lot of information to process at one time and I plan on printing it either later tonight or prior to the draw.
 
CPA-hole said:
Just looking at PPs only Jaces Road has a real subpar efforts on an off-going of those that have run.

But looking at the weather forecast for next Saturday, we should be ok.
Click to expand...
"we should be ok.", does that mean you're a part owner or is it more of your selection?
 
Are All Prep Races Created Equal?

Sometimes making your Derby selection is difficult, after all there are numerous ways a horse can lose any race, so here is one way to look at whom to pick.

In the last ten running's of the Kentucky Derby, I researched where the top four finishers prepped hoping to find another nugget. Certain prep races kept showing up in the results. Does this mean those horses are more battle tested and ready to become a part of horse racing history? I don’t know as this is the first time it will be used live and if nothing else, I believe it could be used to break any ties one would have between horses.

Similar to those who finish first and get a greater share of the purse than those who finish fourth, I came up with a point scale rewarding points for the top four finishers The winning prep race got ten points, the runner-up (place) five points, the show race three points and hitting the board (fourth) received one point.

I selected ten races to give credence to longer term success instead of a one hit wonder and with how horses now prep for the Derby things are not done as they were eleven plus years ago. In today’s horse racing world, sadly most of those who make the Kentucky Derby field aren’t around to have a racing career at four, let along five (or higher).

Here are the findings:
49 points were accumulated by those who prepped in the Florida Derby
45 points were accumulated by those who prepped in the Santa Anita & Louisiana Derby
32 points were accumulated by those who prepped in the Arkansas Derby
16 points were accumulated by those who prepped in the Blue Grass Stakes
10 points were accumulated by those who prepped in the Jeff Ruby Stakes
9 points were accumulated by those who prepped in the Wood Memorial Stakes
7 points were accumulated by those who prepped in the Sun Dance Derby
3 points were accumulated by those who prepped in the Tampa Bay Derby
 
A couple of things to remember from last year's Derby:

1) Track was fast. This has traditionally, since the start of the new Derby points system in 2013, led to more formful results. The weird results usually happen when things get muddy/sloppy. Here are the fast track results since the points system starting, with winner and top four listed by betting choice.

2021 - Medina Spirit wins - (top four were betting choices 6-8-3-1)
2020 Covid year, September race, you can disregard but it still fits- Authentic - (betting choices 3-1-12-2)
2016 - Nyquist (betting choices 1-2-3-4 in order)
2015 - American Pharoah (betting choices 1-4-2-5)
2014 - Cal Chrome (betting choices 1-17-3-2)

2022 was an exception only in the winner being the longest shot on the board. 2nd thru 5th were betting choices 1-3-13-5, which would've fallen in line with other fast track Derbys.

The favorite has finished 2-4-2-1-1-1 in six fast track Derbys since switching from earnings to points.
2nd choice has been off-off-4-2-3-4
3rd choice has been 3-3-1-3-off-3

Never on a fast track have you not had at least 2 of the top 3 betting choices finish top 4.

Compare this to when the field was based on earnings:
2012 - I'll Have Another (betting choices 9-1-6-13)
2011 - Animal Kingdom (betting choices 11-3-4-12)
2008 - Big Brown (betting choices 1-4-9-14)

2) The 2022 Derby had the fastest pace in history. Who set the pace? The two UAE Derby qualifiers, Summer is Tomorrow and Crown Pride (JPN). That's noteworthy because we don't see split times from Meydan on past performances. Nobody saw what was coming: those two hooking up for 21.78 and 45.36 fractions.

3) Rich Strike was noteworthy for two reasons: 1) he was an AE drawing in only because Ethereal Road scratched early, and 2) His Quirin speed point number is zero, and in fact he was the only zero in the field. The Quirin number measures your proclivity for getting involved in the early pace of a race. Numbers go from 0 to 8; the higher the number, the more likely you'll be involved early. A zero means you're going to hang back, and I've seen too many times to count that when the race melts down the top finishers work from the bottom up in Quirin points.

2022 had two Quirin 8s in the field, Messier and Pioneer of Medina. Generally two lead options do not guarantee a hot pace, because often one will get lost in the shuffle and the desired duel doesn't materialize. Sure enough, Medina Spirit did not break fast and was 11th at the quarter pole. However, the unrated UAE entries picked up the slack in a big way. Messier, being well thought of as the fourth choice on the board, track the leaders closely and eventually wilted.
 
There is no 100% right or wrong way to analyze the Kentucky Derby. Each person has to determine what factors they want to include and how much weight they are willing to put into those factors. There are literally thousands of ways to determine/pick the Kentucky Derby winner. Anyone who at this point, prior to post positions being drawn, and tries to sell you on their choice is a fool. Even after they are drawn, there are still things, in my opinion, that must be taken into account. The plan as of right now is to list/post my selections/tickets somewhere between the last hour (after they had been made/wagered). Sometimes they cash, others they don't but even with my limited experience, I know this is just one race and won't go over my budgeted amount just to say "I had it." Pretty dumb to wager $40, $2 on each horse, and have the winner pay $8.00. Yes, you had the winner but lost $32.00. Just an example of, to me, dumb wagering.

Keep sharing so we all can have a profit from the Derby.
 
Gandolf said:
A couple of things to remember from last year's Derby:

1) Track was fast. This has traditionally, since the start of the new Derby points system in 2013, led to more formful results. The weird results usually happen when things get muddy/sloppy. Here are the fast track results since the points system starting, with winner and top four listed by betting choice.

2021 - Medina Spirit wins - (top four were betting choices 6-8-3-1)
2020 Covid year, September race, you can disregard but it still fits- Authentic - (betting choices 3-1-12-2)
2016 - Nyquist (betting choices 1-2-3-4 in order)
2015 - American Pharoah (betting choices 1-4-2-5)
2014 - Cal Chrome (betting choices 1-17-3-2)

2022 was an exception only in the winner being the longest shot on the board. 2nd thru 5th were betting choices 1-3-13-5, which would've fallen in line with other fast track Derbys.

The favorite has finished 2-4-2-1-1-1 in six fast track Derbys since switching from earnings to points.
2nd choice has been off-off-4-2-3-4
3rd choice has been 3-3-1-3-off-3

Never on a fast track have you not had at least 2 of the top 3 betting choices finish top 4.

Compare this to when the field was based on earnings:
2012 - I'll Have Another (betting choices 9-1-6-13)
2011 - Animal Kingdom (betting choices 11-3-4-12)
2008 - Big Brown (betting choices 1-4-9-14)

2) The 2022 Derby had the fastest pace in history. Who set the pace? The two UAE Derby qualifiers, Summer is Tomorrow and Crown Pride (JPN). That's noteworthy because we don't see split times from Meydan on past performances. Nobody saw what was coming: those two hooking up for 21.78 and 45.36 fractions.

3) Rich Strike was noteworthy for two reasons: 1) he was an AE drawing in only because Ethereal Road scratched early, and 2) His Quirin speed point number is zero, and in fact he was the only zero in the field. The Quirin number measures your proclivity for getting involved in the early pace of a race. Numbers go from 0 to 8; the higher the number, the more likely you'll be involved early. A zero means you're going to hang back, and I've seen too many times to count that when the race melts down the top finishers work from the bottom up in Quirin points.

2022 had two Quirin 8s in the field, Messier and Pioneer of Medina. Generally two lead options do not guarantee a hot pace, because often one will get lost in the shuffle and the desired duel doesn't materialize. Sure enough, Medina Spirit did not break fast and was 11th at the quarter pole. However, the unrated UAE entries picked up the slack in a big way. Messier, being well thought of as the fourth choice on the board, track the leaders closely and eventually wilted.
Click to expand...
This is a great example of sharing, thank you for this information.
 
Currently I'm working on a chart/table and will post it after the draw - might not be right instantly, more along the lines of before the night falls.
 
1. HIT SHOW (Cox/Franco) 30-1
2. VERIFYING (Cox/Gaffalione) 15-1
3. TWO PHIL'S (Rivelli/Loveberry) 12-1
4. CONFIDENCE GAME (Desormeaux/Graham) 20-1
5. TAPIT TRICE (Pletcher/Saez) 5-1
6. KINGSBARNS (Pletcher/J. Ortiz) 12-1
7. REINCARNATE (Yakteen/J. Velazquez) 50-1
8. MAGE (Delgado/Castellano) 15-1
9. SKINNER (Shirreffs/J. Hernandez) 20-1
10. PRACTICAL MOVE (Yakteen/R. Vasquez) 10-1

11. DISARM (Asmussen/Rosario) 30-1
12. JACE'S ROAD (Cox/Geroux) 15-1
13. SUN THUNDER (McPeek/B. Hernandez Jr.) 50-1
14. ANGEL OF EMPIRE (Cox/Prat) 8-1
15. FORTE (Pletcher/I. Ortiz)[/b] 3-1
16. RAISE CAIN (Colebrook/Corrales) 50-1
17. DERMA SOTOGAKE (Otonashi/Lemaire) 10-1
18. ROCKET CAN (Mott/Alvarado) 30-1
19. LORD MILES (Joseph/P. Lopez) 30-1
20. CONTINUAR Otonashi/Lemaire) 50-1
--------------------------------------------
AE 21. Cyclone Mischief 45 (Romans/Rosario) 30-1
AE 22. Mandarin Hero 40 (Fujita/Kimura) 20-1
AE 23. King Russell 40 (Moquett/Bejarano) 50-1
 
Gandolf said:
1. HIT SHOW (Cox/Franco) 30-1
2. VERIFYING (Cox/Gaffalione) 15-1
3. TWO PHIL'S (Rivelli/Loveberry) 12-1
4. CONFIDENCE GAME (Desormeaux/Graham) 20-1
5. TAPIT TRICE (Pletcher/Saez) 5-1
6. KINGSBARNS (Pletcher/J. Ortiz) 12-1
7. REINCARNATE (Yakteen/J. Velazquez) 50-1
8. MAGE (Delgado/Castellano) 15-1
9. SKINNER (Shirreffs/J. Hernandez) 20-1
10. PRACTICAL MOVE (Yakteen/R. Vasquez) 10-1

11. DISARM (Asmussen/Rosario) 30-1
12. JACE'S ROAD (Cox/Geroux) 15-1
13. SUN THUNDER (McPeek/B. Hernandez Jr.) 50-1
14. ANGEL OF EMPIRE (Cox/Prat) 8-1
15. FORTE (Pletcher/I. Ortiz)[/b] 3-1
16. RAISE CAIN (Colebrook/Corrales) 50-1
17. DERMA SOTOGAKE (Otonashi/Lemaire) 10-1
18. ROCKET CAN (Mott/Alvarado) 30-1
19. LORD MILES (Joseph/P. Lopez) 30-1
20. CONTINUAR Otonashi/Lemaire) 50-1
--------------------------------------------
AE 21. Cyclone Mischief 45 (Romans/Rosario) 30-1
AE 22. Mandarin Hero 40 (Fujita/Kimura) 20-1
AE 23. King Russell 40 (Moquett/Bejarano) 50-1
Click to expand...
Thanks for posting the above.
 
I think part of the reason for more formful results since the switch in earnings to points systems is that you dont have many sprinters getting in bc they won some 7F race worth a mil just to be a jackrabbit in the derby.

The mud throws a curveball bc horses get over it differently, some hate the kickback etc.
 
TodaysWinners said:
Weather should be a part of your analysis. Be it sunny, rainy, no/low wind, wind gusts, etc. Listed below is a weather site for Churchill downs, currently they are saying there's a 47% chance of rain in the six o'clock hour.


As Derby Day draws closer, they normally have 15 minute breakdowns.

Some horses run better, and others worse, on wet tracks (surface) similar to some people like one flavor of ice cream over another - it is what it is. Those whom have more experience than myself would tell you it's breeding/a bloodline thing, that's nice but at this point all I need to remember is some do better on wet surfaces than others.
Click to expand...
The forecast for Oaks day is calling for a 70+% chance of rain in the afternoon. At the very least, the track probably wont be "fast". To soon for Saturday's race for comments.
 
Here is field for the 149th Kentucky Derby, 2023, with the morning line odds for each horse and how the trainer and jockey do in this race (not as a combination). [Number of KY Derby races/wins-place-show-fourths]

1: Hit Show, 30:1
Trainer: Brad Cox, 5/1-0-1-0
Jockey: Manuel Franco, 4/0-1-0-0

2: Verifying, 15:1
Trainer: Brad Cox, 5/1-0-1-0
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione, 5/0-0-0-0

3. Two Phil’s, 12:1
Trainer: Larry Rivelli, 1ST KY Derby
Jockey: J Loveberry, 1ST KY Derby

4: Confidence Game, 20:1
Trainer: Keith Deormeaux, 3/0-1-0-0
Jockey: James Graham, 2/0-0-0-0

5: Tapit Trice, 5:1
Trainer: Todd Pletcher,62/2-2-4-2
Jockey: Luis Saez, 9/0-0-1-0

6: Kingsbarns, 12:1
Trainer: Todd Pletcher, 62/2-2-4-2
Jockey: Jose Ortiz, 7/0-1-1-1

7: Reincarnate, 50:1
Trainer: Tim Yakteen, 2/0-0-0-0
Jockey: Johnny R Velazquez, 24/3-2-0-2

8: Mage, 15:1
Trainer: Gustavo Delgado, 2/0-0-0-0
Jockey: Javier Castellano, 15/0-0-1-1

9: Skinner, 20:1
Trainer: John Shirreffs, 5/1-0-0-1
Jockey: Juan Hernandez, 1ST KY Derby

10: Practical Move, 10:1
Trainer: Tim Yakteen,2/0-0-0-0
Jockey: Ramon A Vazquez, 1/0-0-0-0

11: Disarm, 30:1
Trainer: Steven Asmussen, 24/0-3-2-0
Jockey: Joel Rosario, 11/1-1-0-2

12: Jace’s Road, 15:1
Trainer: Brad Cox, 5/1-0-1-0
Jockey: Florent Geroux, 6/1-0-1-0

13: Sun Thunder, 50:1
Trainer: Kenneth McPeek, 8/0-1-0-0
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr., 3/0-0-0-0

14: Angel of Empire, 8:1
Trainer: Brad Cox, 5/1-0-1-0
Jockey: Flavien Prat, 5/1-1-2-0

15: Forte, 3:1*
Trainer: Todd Pletcher:, 62/2-2-4-2
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr., 6/0-0-0-1

16: Raise Cain, 50:1
Trainer: Ben Colebrook, 1ST KY Derby
Jockey: Geraldo Corrales, 1ST KY Derby

17: Derma Sotogate (JPN), 10:1
Trainer: Hidetaka Otonashi, 1ST KY Derby
Jockey: Christopher Lemaire, 1/0-0-0-0

18: Rocket Can, 30:1
Trainer: William Mott, 11/1-0-1-0
Jockey: Junior Alvarado, 3/0-0-0-1

19: Lord Miles, 30:1
Trainer: Saffie A Joseph Jr, 2/0-0-0-0
Jockey: Paco Lopez, 2/0-0-0-0

20: Continuar (JPN), 50:1
Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi, 1ST KY Derby
Jockey: R Sakai, 1ST KY Derby

AE 21: Cyclone Mischief, 30:1
Trainer: Dale Romans, 11/0-0-2-1
Jockey: Joel Rosario, 11/1-1-0-2

AE 22: Mandarin Hero (JPN), 20:1
Trainer: Terunobu Fujita, 1ST KY Derby
Jockey: K Kimura, 1ST KY Derby

AE 23: King Russell, 50:1
Trainer: Ron Moquett, 1ST KY Derby
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano, 12/0-0-0-1

As you can clearly see, some trainers and jockeys have more (or less) success in this race during their career.
First time KY Derby participants win less than 2% of the time (first attempt).
 
I don't mind the inside post for Hit Show as he'll come from off the pace. Impossible trying to guess who gets a good trip but I know he can close.

Very interesting pace scenario this year....
 
aplous said:
I don't mind the inside post for Hit Show as he'll come from off the pace. Impossible trying to guess who gets a good trip but I know he can close.

Very interesting pace scenario this year....
Click to expand...
Post #36, this thread, covers the last ten winning running styles. To me, it's well worth the three minute read.
 
#10 Practical Move was scratched this afternoon, reported on DRF. Cyclone Mischief draws in. Other horses may scratch/withdraw until 9:00am Friday prior to race day (to set the field).

Listed below is the adjusted field:

Here is field for the 149th Kentucky Derby, 2023, with the morning line odds for each horse and how the trainer and jockey do in this race (not as a combination). [Number of KY Derby races/wins-place-show-fourths]

1: Hit Show, 30:1
Trainer: Brad Cox, 5/1-0-1-0
Jockey: Manuel Franco, 4/0-1-0-0

2: Verifying, 15:1
Trainer: Brad Cox, 5/1-0-1-0
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione, 5/0-0-0-0

3. Two Phil’s, 12:1
Trainer: Larry Rivelli, 1ST KY Derby
Jockey: J Loveberry, 1ST KY Derby

4: Confidence Game, 20:1
Trainer: Keith Deormeaux, 3/0-1-0-0
Jockey: James Graham, 2/0-0-0-0

5: Tapit Trice, 5:1
Trainer: Todd Pletcher,62/2-2-4-2
Jockey: Luis Saez, 9/0-0-1-0

6: Kingsbarns, 12:1
Trainer: Todd Pletcher, 62/2-2-4-2
Jockey: Jose Ortiz, 7/0-1-1-1

7: Reincarnate, 50:1
Trainer: Tim Yakteen, 2/0-0-0-0
Jockey: Johnny R Velazquez, 24/3-2-0-2

8: Mage, 15:1
Trainer: Gustavo Delgado, 2/0-0-0-0
Jockey: Javier Castellano, 15/0-0-1-1

9: Skinner, 20:1
Trainer: John Shirreffs, 5/1-0-0-1
Jockey: Juan Hernandez, 1ST KY Derby

10: Practical Move, 10:1 <===== SCRATCHED 05.04.23
Trainer: Tim Yakteen,2/0-0-0-0
Jockey: Ramon A Vazquez, 1/0-0-0-0

11: Disarm, 30:1
Trainer: Steven Asmussen, 24/0-3-2-0
Jockey: Joel Rosario, 11/1-1-0-2

12: Jace’s Road, 15:1
Trainer: Brad Cox, 5/1-0-1-0
Jockey: Florent Geroux, 6/1-0-1-0

13: Sun Thunder, 50:1
Trainer: Kenneth McPeek, 8/0-1-0-0
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr., 3/0-0-0-0

14: Angel of Empire, 8:1
Trainer: Brad Cox, 5/1-0-1-0
Jockey: Flavien Prat, 5/1-1-2-0

15: Forte, 3:1*
Trainer: Todd Pletcher:, 62/2-2-4-2
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr., 6/0-0-0-1

16: Raise Cain, 50:1
Trainer: Ben Colebrook, 1ST KY Derby
Jockey: Geraldo Corrales, 1ST KY Derby

17: Derma Sotogate (JPN), 10:1
Trainer: Hidetaka Otonashi, 1ST KY Derby
Jockey: Christopher Lemaire, 1/0-0-0-0

18: Rocket Can, 30:1
Trainer: William Mott, 11/1-0-1-0
Jockey: Junior Alvarado, 3/0-0-0-1

19: Lord Miles, 30:1
Trainer: Saffie A Joseph Jr, 2/0-0-0-0
Jockey: Paco Lopez, 2/0-0-0-0

20: Continuar (JPN), 50:1
Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi, 1ST KY Derby
Jockey: R Sakai, 1ST KY Derby

21: Cyclone Mischief, 30:1 <======= DRAWS IN VIA #10 scratching
Trainer: Dale Romans, 11/0-0-2-1
Jockey: Corey Lanerie, 6/0-1-0-0

AE 22: Mandarin Hero (JPN), 20:1
Trainer: Terunobu Fujita, 1ST KY Derby
Jockey: K Kimura, 1ST KY Derby

AE 23: King Russell, 50:1
Trainer: Ron Moquett, 1ST KY Derby
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano, 12/0-0-0-1

As you can clearly see, some trainers and jockeys have more (or less) success in this race during their career.
First time KY Derby participants win less than 2% of the time (first attempt).

Adjust your strategy and tickets accordingly.
 
Aside from any wagers for Derby Day, I am 99.99% certain this will be the last post pertaining to information about this year's Kentucky Derby (unless an update is needed/required).

Time for a nice tall glass of sweet tea and start breaking down Oaks Day races.
 

Attachments

Mandarin Hero makes an interesting choice for those like me who liked Practical Move. Running styles are quite different but many thought Mandarin Hero ran the better race.

I've seen players pushing Skinner, does this cut him down a notch for some since he and MH ran basically the same race in the SA Derby but Skinner was never able to catch MH?

The one thing it doesn't do is impact the pace as Lord Miles was not going to be a part of it.
 
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